Second Division Clubs

One of Keith's favorite points is that whenever you face a second division club, you see the way they play and you understand why they are a second division club.

I think tonight's Mets game is a fine example of why the Mets are a second division club.

First it was the two-out error by Luis Castillo letting a ball go through his legs and a run come in.

Then it was David Wright throwing a ball way on an impossible chance, again with two outs. The next batter up, um, Albert Pujols, knocked him in with a single up the middle.

And then it was Wright and Jose Reyes first ball swinging in the top of the 5th when the Mets had something cooking. I know, I know, "thou shalt not pass", but still, when both of them skied into unproductive pop outs, you had to wonder if they'd offered at the right pitches.

It's 7-1 now, and somehow you feel certain the Mets don't have a chance.

- A.F.O.M.G.

Halfway There, Getting Nowhere

Eighty-one games in and we're 40-41. Not exactly where we expected our boys to sit at the halfway point, is it?

I know it's not what I expected, but in retrospect it's easy to see this team's flaws. The lack of hitting, the age. On that level, it's easy to see why things have gone so middlingly. Half the time Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran can carry us. The other half of the time they can't. And so we go and we, uh, "moonwalk" back and forth playing .500 ball.

What should we expect from here? Needless to say that at 3 games out we're within striking distance of first place.

But we need to look at this situation practically; we've been a .500 and under team for a majority of the season. I can't even remember the last time we had a meaningful winning streak, nor can I remember the last time I felt like this team had any momentum.

We win a few games and then we lose a few games, and when it's over we're back where we began. We're halfway through the season and essentially we're right where we started. The Phillies lose 8 of 10 and we gain 1.5 games. We win one game 15-6, then we lose the next 9-0.

* * * * *

Can history tell us anything about where we stand? Here's how recent Mets teams fared on June 30:

• 2002: 40-40; 4th place; 10.5 GB
• 2003: 35-46; 5th place; 16.5 GB
• 2004: 37-39; 3rd place; 3 GB
• 2005: 39-39; 5th place; 8 GB
• 2006: 47-32: 1st place; 10.5 GU
• 2007: 46-33; 1st place; 4 GU
• 2008: 40-41; 3rd place; 3 GB

First off, what's remarkable is how similar our record was in 2007 to what it was in 2006; I hadn't quite realized that.

But beyond that, in my opinion this season's closest cousin is 2004.

2004 might be the worst season in recent Mets history, if for no other reason than that we traded perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball for a bag of balls.

We did so because of circumstances that are instantly recognizable to Mets fans in 2008. Essentially, ownership looked at the standings and thought the Mets had a chance.

They thought the Braves (37-40) were as bad as their record, when there was no reason they should have been. The Braves went on to win 96 games that year, and the Mets, with Victor Zambrano leading the way, finished 25 games out of first.

The point was, the Mets were playing significantly above their level at the midway point, and the Braves were playing significantly below their level.

In 2008 the equation's a little different. I still believe the Mets are playing below their level, but not significantly so. In my estimation, the Mets are good enough to win about as many games as they did last year (88).

The problem is I also believe the Phillies, like the 2004 Braves, are playing significantly below their level. I don't expect them to finish with 96 wins, but I fully expect them to finish, say, 20 games over .500, 91 wins call it.

But maybe Met ownership sees it differently. Maybe Jeff Wilpon gets to feeling the Mets are one starter away from launching a pennant chase for the ages again, and maybe Dan Warthen sees something in Brandon Backe that makes Fernando Martinez expendable.

It's possible I feel this way because I've come to expect only the worst from this collection of Mets players (and from Mets ownership), and because of my perception of the Phillies' toughness and fortitude.

Not for nothing, but the Phils were 41-40 at this time last year, 6 games out of first, their situation looking resoundingly worse than ours does now. History, unfortunately last year, fortunately (?) this year, proves 81 games isn't everything.

The point is, with this collection of players, how much more can we justifiably expect?

* * * * *

For my money, this weekend's 4-game set with the Phillies is the make-or-break point of the year. It's when we either leap over this mental hurdle that's been built up or we don't. I think the team needs something, finally, to make them believe they can win again.

If we can't win now we won't win at all this year. Ryan Church is back, Jose Reyes is playing like himself again, and that person wearing No. 21 has done something with Carlos Delgado's corpse.

The time to make a move is now. Too often in the past year the Mets have folded when their opportunity presented itself.

This week they play two good teams and they either continue that trend or reverse it. Stay tuned.

- A.F.O.M.G.

Eat Italian

The Knicks go international! Sound the alarm! Tell the folks at SNY to update the "Beer Money" promos! Seriously, the "Beer Money" ad where the host makes fun of the guy who can't remember Frederic Weis' name makes no sense. Who in his right mind would remember Fred Weis? Nobody with anything better to do.

So, Dan Gallinari is into the Garden to play for Mike D'Antoni, and all is right with the world. He's allegedly more like Dirk Nowitzki than fellow I-talian Andrea Bargniani, according to some wishful thinking from a guy I talked to at a bar last night. He's tall and he's dark and he's spiteful, which is a good trait for a baller to have. He's got a jumper and he can cook a mean spaghetti carbonara. He'll take a quarter of his salary under the table. There's nothing not to love there.

In the meantime, the Mets are playing the Bombers today in a split doubleheader, and I couldn't be less excited. Even Petey pitching tonight isn't doing it for me. I don't rightly know why -- something about the team over the last week has just been so blah that I haven't been able to get myself up for a Subway Series in the proper way. Disagree if you like. I just think the Mike Pelfrey-Dan Giese matchup is a pretty tough sell.

With any luck, we all here at Y2K will be a little more intense next week. There's nothing like being swept by the Yanks to get the Irish up in me.

Next: More ethnic stereotypes!

Jerry Manual Facts

Jerry Manual read "War and Peace" at age 9.

Jerry Manual is the world's best Sudoku player.

Jerry Manual has been nominated for every Nobel prize except Peace, which the Phillies should regard as their warning.

Jerry Manual takes snuff from time to time.

Jerry Manual plans to open a fine men's clothing shop after his retirement.

Jerry Manual spent several summers in his youth as a ranch hand in Wyoming.

Jerry Manual invented the high-five, and would have invented the low-five but for the intervention of Alexander Graham Bell.

Jerry Manual only takes the Lord's name in vain when necessary, or when it'll get a really good laugh.

Jerry Manual plays a mean jazz harmonica.

Jerry Manual is the World's Best Dad. (h/t Lister)

Jerry Manual has some Grey Poupon.

Jerry Manual shines his own shoes.

Jerry Manual speaks softly, but will cut Jose Reyes.

Jerry Manual shits on the Half Windsor Knot.

Jerry Manual taught the hit-and-run to Larry Doby in the minor leagues, back before integration, y'see.

Jerry Manual owns a top-notch sound system.

Jerry Manual regularly beats Robert Parker in blind taste-testings.

Jerry Manual is training for a half-marathon.

Jerry Manual drives a vintage MG convertible that he only takes out when the need for speed strikes.

Jerry Manual convinced Billy Wagner that "The War of the Worlds" was a documentary.

Jerry Manual was cool with Burt Bacharach back in the 70s, before he changed.

Jerry Manual could get his German back up to par pretty quickly if need be.

Jerry Manual knows kung-fu.

Nothing, It Turns Out

Sweet Oliver. Beautiful, unpredictable Oliver. All-or-Nothing Ollie. The apple of my pitching eye. Good lord, you're not getting it done in 2008.

Wednesday night's late start out in Anaheim was the latest hiccup for the Mets' putative No. 3 starter. He got lucky for three or so innings, allowing a lot of hard-hit balls that wound up in New York gloves, and generally looking like crap even while hanging onto a 3-1 lead. He gave it up in the fifth, allowing the first five men to reach before getting out of the inning with the rare 5-2-4 double play. It still put the Mets in a 4-3 hole that they needed extra innings (and an uncommon Damian Easley home run) to escape.

His line for the night? Six innings, nine hits to go with his three walks and a pair of strikeouts. The outing pushed his season ERA to 5.04, and his seasonal WHIP to a ghastly 1.56. He's walked 51 batters in just over 78 innings, and he's just been generally atrocious, especially when compared to last year's breakout. He hasn't consolidated those gains; he's given everything back, and then some.

What's going on here?

His rate stats, as you might have deduced, are obviously way off. His K/9 has slid from 8.85 to 7.47, a pretty big dip, but the real culprit has been his rapidly vanishing control. He's walking 5.86 batters per nine innings, which is absolute garbage, and the worst rate among all MLB starters, if you can believe that. His 1.46 HR allowed/9 is also in the bottom 10 leaguewide.

Taking a look at the batted ball and other data they have at Fangraphs gives us a little better idea of what's going on.

Velocity and pitch selection

Fangraphs has his average fastball velocity at 90.3 mph, almost exactly what it was in 2007, when he was plenty effective. His slider velocity is up slightly, at 78.5 mph, but not much, and he almost never throws the change or his curveball.

In fact, that's one of the differences from 2007; he's really NEVER using his change anymore. In '07, Perez threw his changeup 5.5 percent of the time and his floppy curve 2.4 percent of the time. This year? Both those numbers have been sliced substantially. He throws the curve 1.3 percent of the time, and his change is all the way down to 2.3 percent. He's made up for those differences by simply throwing more fastballs and sliders.

Just to be clear, Perez is now throwing his changeup less than he threw his curve last year, when he almost never used it. From the standpoint of keeping hitters off-balance, this can't be a good thing.

And indeed, when you consider that southpaws mostly use the change against right-handed batters, it might help to explain why Perez's WHIP against righties is 1.77 and 0.98 against other lefties.

Batted ball

In 2007, Perez was the second-biggest flyball pitcher in the game, with a 0.65 GB/FB ratio behind only the 0.53 of San Diego's Chris Young. Thus far in 2008, that hasn't been the case. Ollie's been allowing more grounders, and his GB/FB ratio is up to 0.87, which is still pretty extreme, but no longer in the top (or bottom, depending on your perspective) 10.

But the balls he's getting in the air are simply not as advantageous this year. His line drive percentage is up big-time, from 16.8 percent to 21.4 percent, and his infield fly ratio is WAY down, from 12.9 percent to 5.3 percent. When he does give up a flyball, it's about 56 percent more likely to fly out of the yard.

Put more simply, Perez isn't fooling as many people this year -- hence the lack of pop-outs and relative lack of easier flyballs -- and when batters are making contact, they're killing the ball.

I don't have enough data about pitch movement to determine why that is. It's possible the sliders he's throwing are too flat, or his fastball has lost movement, or something else I won't be able to determine from the tools here. Velocity-wise, nothing really has changed.

But becoming essentially a two-pitch pitcher has clearly not played to the advantage of the Mets or Perez. It's not helping his command thus far, and it seems to be rendering him way too predictable. When you're a righty, and you know you're either getting a fastball over the plate or a floating slider, and the guy's just as likely to throw the ball four pitches well outside of the strike zone before you get a chance to swing, you can sit on either pitch for as long as you want.

If Rick Peterson were still sachaying around Shea Stadium, I'd tell him this was something he needed to fix. But since we've got a new cowboy in town, I'll just go ahead and direct this his way.

Dan Warthen, the ball's in your court.

The Human Athlete

Did anyone else see Kevin Garnett's post game speech? I'm really not even sure you can call it a speech. He seemed to shout out his entire past introducing us to a world that we rarely see in sports.

For better or worse, we saw a real human reaction out of a man from South Carolina via the inner city of Chicago who had just reached the pinnacle of his professional career.



We met Kevin Garnett.

Of my many problems with sports these days, the rehearsed athlete is near the top. Athletes that say what they are supposed to say even when it is so transparent that they are completely full of it.

We have one athlete to truly thank for this: Derek Jeter.

Derek Jeter, since his introduction as the prince of New York City in the mid 90's has always said and done the right thing. He spoke eloquently, dressed properly and acted maturely, a true member of society's upper class.

I have no problem with Jeter for this.

By all accounts, Jeter actually is a real good guy.

But from Derek Jeter spawned Alex Rodriguez, the stripper seducing man by night, who when he speaks to us, always tells how great everything is.

A-Rod is a poster child for the modern athlete. He is a four sentence cliche, who despite all his tremendous talents, is truly unlikable.

We have never met Alex Rodriguez.

And for that matter, we have truly never met Kobe Bryant.

Since day 1, Kobe Bryant has acted like the next Michael Jordan. He talked like Michael, walked like Michael and led like Michael.

Only problem is, he is not Michael Jordan.

Like A-Rod, we the fan have never truly met Kobe Bryant.



Which to me, made it so enjoyable to see him lose his first championship without Shaq. This was Kobe's team and they lost. Michael NEVER lost.


..............

There is no better feeling for a fan in sports than when we feel truly connected to an athlete. When, despite the fact that they don't know us from our neighbor, these athletes are our buddy, our brother, or our son.

It is for this reason that fans get so much more pleasure rooting for players that came up through a system, as opposed to players lured by the mighty dollar.

We knew these guys as kids and now we are watching them mature.

And it is for this reason why I fell in love with the Texas Rangers on Saturday night.

In the midst of a terrible thunderstorm at Shea Stadium, it was 2000 all over again.

Rangers players including Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley- Two of the teams stars- jumped out of the clubhouse and onto the soaked Shea Stadium field for a child's game of slip and slide.

These players became human.

They were doing what any American would want to do if they had a tarp and some rain. These were no longer the multi-millionare crybaby superstars, these were our fraternity brothers or even our teammates.

The crowd chanted "Lets go Rangers," because the crowd really liked who these Rangers were. Just as these fans wish they could be out on the field playing baseball everyday, they wish they could be playing in the rain during the storm.

This brings back fond memories of 2000.

My favorite Met of all time, Robin Ventura,drew a fake mustache to pretend to be Mike Piazza. He then proceeded to play the same game of slip and slide on the Yankee Stadium tarp.

I always loved Robin. I always felt like he was a dude, one of the guys. He was so matter of fact, so honest. He was a ballplayer.

The Mets went on to make the World Series that year.

Just as the 2004 Red Sox did when they were "the idiots."

Ballplayers became human. We loved them, they liked each other and they won.


.............

This to me was always biggest problem with Willie Randolph. He was a statue. We never got to know Willie, we got to know Willie's public persona. He wa sa product of Jeter's late 90's Yankees. He saw people that could do no wrong and wanted to be just like them. But Willie wasn't Jeter. He wasn't Joe Torre. He was Willie. And Willie the good guy was boring.



This can be said about the Mets as a team right now.

This team lacks an identity, a flare, a real reason to truly love them.

There is no outspoken leader, or party guy, or controversial guy. We've had one Billy Wagner outburst all season (hands down the most exciting moment of the season for that matter) and nothing else.

Lost is Professor Reyes.

Lost is Al Leiter screaming at himself.

Lost is the energy that makes these guys more than baseball players.

...............

We have seen firsthand thru the Yankees, that winning in baseball is not putting together the best fantasy team possible.

Baseball is about putting 25 individuals together to make the best possible team.

These Mets don't feel like a team. They look more like a bunch of guys wearing Mets uniforms who see baseball as a job. That to me was always Willie's biggest problem.

He was too professional.

So lets have a little fun here.

I don't know if this team needs to sign Rube Baker to give them the kick in the butt that they need, but something needs to get going to light a spark.

Hopefully Jerry Manuel can be that guy.


Vaya,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of wallpaperbase.com, wordpress.com)

Bank Shot

Lot to consider in Buster Olney's ESPN.com blog post this morning on Willie's firing. Let's to it, gentlemen and ladies.

The personnel meetings the Mets hold are said by participants to run on for hours, the discussion often turning circular and pointless. And maybe that's when it starts to happen in their organization when they get to the point where the staff members are so beaten down emotionally and intellectually that they don't have the ability to stand up and scream: Are you people crazy? Are you serious? Because this is a really bad idea -- no, no, wait, let's go one step further: It's really just flat-out nuts.

Sounds awful. Any examples?

They needed somebody to yell that in the days and hours leading up to the preposterous trades they made in July 2004, when they swapped a 20-year-old left-handed pitcher who could throw 95 mph for a journeyman right-hander who had shown signs of breaking down. When they made the Carlos Delgado deal, they needed a Bill Shatner to scream that they paid five-star prices in salary obligation for Delgado when they really could've made the deal for much less.

Well. Nobody (still) here thinks Victor Zambrano was an advisable acquisition, but to be sure, Omar Minaya didn't make that trade. As for the Delgado deal being preposterous, well, I just couldn't agree less. Yes, the contract was always long and large, and yeah, he's turned into a huge liability with the bat. But flags fly forever, and in 2006, when the Mets were fairly close to getting a shot at a title, Delgado whacked a cool 38 HR, knocked in 114 runs, and posted a 35.2 VORP, which ain't half bad.

Here was Buster Olney at the time:

If, in fact, the Mets part with their top pitching prospect to get Delgado, while absorbing all of Delgado's financial obligations, they are insane. They could offer a bag of balls at this point and Florida will take a deal, so long as the Mets are taking the contract. ... But the trademark of Omar Minaya's dealings so far is that he overpays for everything. He can get Delgado, and that's great. But why overpay for him? Why not tell the Marlins, Look, you don't have teams beating down your door to take his contract. We'll do you a favor and take his contract, and you'll take one Grade B-minus prospect from this list of three, along with this backup Class A catcher, and you'll be thrilled with that. Landing Pedro, Beltran, Wagner, Delgado, all good. But at some point, the bill is going to come due, and the Mets at least have to try to pay market value, rather than spending above and beyond that in each and every deal.

This was wrong then, and wrong now. If you want to criticize Omar for playing "Win Now" baseball, fine. It was a conscious mindset, and several resultant moves were out-and-out atricious. But Buster wasn't criticizing the big picture; that he likes fine. He thought the Mets were giving up too much for Delgado, and that just wasn't the case.

2006 Yusmeiro Petit: 26.1 IP, -11.1 VORP, which is almost impossible (that's what a 2.09 WHIP will do for you)
2007 Petit in Arizona, traded for Jorge Julio: 57 IP, 8.0 VORP (1.33 WHIP, 4.58 ERA)
2008 Petit: 7.2 IP

Mike Jacobs, meanwhile, has put up seasonal VORPs of 12.2 and 10.5 with the Fish, and has a fancy .276 OBP so far this year. If you want to criticize the Delgado deal on opportunity cost grounds, I'll buy it. But only in an extremely ungenerous sense was the trade "preposterous."

More Buster.

In the past month, and especially in the past 96 hours, they needed GM Omar Minaya to bluntly say to everyone in the room that what they proposed to do was embarrassing for the organization, beneath the dignity of any professional business. They needed Minaya to insist they come up with something else.

This is extremely unclear. Something else other than firing the manager? Like firing the GM?

But instead, the circus played out fully, without the elephants or the tigers but with plenty of clowns lurking in the shadows. Minaya and his assistant, Tony Bernazard, walked around the lobby of the team hotel Monday "like grim reapers," in the eyes of a staff member. And after weeks of leak-fed speculation and boardroom backstabbing and indecision, they did their bidding, fired manager Willie Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson and first-base coach Tom Nieto.

Again, this is all very unclear. Who is the "they" doing "their" bidding? Whose bidding? Kind of important.

Even the writers of "The Sopranos" could not have invented a more recklessly handled hit.

Timely.

The process really started after last season's collapse, when Minaya -- who came to the Mets having been promised full autonomy and, for more than a year, has had all the power of a marionette -- first regressed into lawyer-speak. "Willie is the manager," Minaya said over and over, as if repeating the phrase would somehow give the crafted but flimsy words backbone and fool anyone into thinking that Randolph wasn't one really bad day away from being fired.

When the Mets sputtered in April, the backstabbing began, with Randolph being undermined along the way. Words of Randolph's honest player evaluations in those staff meetings somehow made their way to the ears of players. That left the manager in a brutal position of trying to draw performance out of veterans who heard that behind closed doors the manager wasn't so sure if they had the right stuff anymore. Some on-field staff members doubted whether they could trust the front office.

And when the losing continued, the front-office leaks to the newspapers became rivers of rip-jobs, the leakers inoculated by the fact that they fired first. It's better to blame the manager and his coaches, after all, than to take responsibility. But even after Randolph's demise became a fait accompli, which was sometime in the last days of May, the decision-makers stopped focusing on the change itself and started becoming concerned about properly scripting his firing.

This is all nasty stuff, especially the stuff about trashing Willie in front of the players. Bernazard is apparently the guy at fault here, and I don't like the sound of that one bit. But this stuff about Minaya being a marionette lacks context and bite. First of all, says who? Second of all, if he's a puppet, let's have a name for the puppeteer. Again, none of us are stupid, and we can probably all guess which Wilpon is pulling the strings in this particular case. But then again, none of us are the lead baseball analyst for the biggest sports media company in the world, and none of us have quite the same responsibility to come out and say what we mean.

Did Jeff Wilpon have it out for Willie from Day One, and has this fella Bernazard been doing his bidding? Is Omar completely emasculated here, and no longer one of "the decision-makers?" If so, some quotes to that effect would be in order, even if they're of the anonymous, Todd Purdum variety.

When the Mets finished a road trip with a loss in Colorado on May 25 and had a record of 23-25, the front office already had talked and talked for hours about managerial alternatives, and unenthusiastically decided that Jerry Manuel was likely to be Randolph's replacement. "Everybody is scared to death about this," said one front-office member at the time.

Not good enough.

But rather than just firing the manager quickly, there was a very public meeting with Fred and Jeff Wilpon on Memorial Day. Friends of Randolph say he felt like the Wilpons were waiting for him to take himself down, with some impetuous or angry remark; if he wanted to quit, they wouldn't stand in the way. But the Mets wouldn't fire him -- not on a holiday because that wouldn't be the classy thing to do, firing a manager on a holiday. So Randolph walked out and sat side by side in a news conference with Minaya, who continued with the lawyer-speak. They had to pretend everything was good and settled, and that the organization was moving forward.

That wasn't true, of course; Randolph remained just one losing streak away from getting dumped, and the losing streak came last week. Along the way, the Mets' front-office whisperers generated the same kind of leaks that came before Steve Phillips was fired, before Art Howe was fired, before Jim Duquette was shoved aside -- the same kind of leaks that came after the Scott Kazmir trade went bad. Not since the days of the vintage Steinbrenner Yankees has any team leaked the way the Mets leak. By Friday night, the papers reported that Randolph was out, and by Saturday night, the papers reported that Peterson and Nieto were going to be fired.

All true enough. But if the Mets are quite so sieve-like, can't we get anyone to put some words to the situation? Buster's saying here, more or less, that the Wilpons' people were selling Willie out to the media? But can't he get someone else in the organization to confirm this? Or anyone to even allege it? Everyone can't be a company man. This is just lazy.

There was just one last vexing problem: Telling the news to Randolph, Peterson and Nieto directly. The Mets' front office could've done that Saturday, as they sat for hours through a rain delay. Or they could've done the job Sunday. But somehow, the Mets' front office seemed to shrink from the idea of firing Randolph on Father's Day.

By Sunday morning, Randolph -- who might or might not be a great manager but is unquestionably a man of dignity -- almost seemed to be laughing at the absurdity of the situation. He chuckled as he told reporters that, sure, he thought about the possibility he might be packing for a West Coast road trip that he might not last all the way through.

It was pretty obvious, yeah.

The Mets won the second game of the doubleheader Sunday, just as they had won on Friday, and then Randolph boarded a plane to the West Coast with his coaching staff and flew all the way to California. The Mets won again Monday, their third win in four games -- and that's when Minaya and Bernazard made their move, capping the employment of Randolph and two coaches after midnight. As if nobody would notice.

The announcement came shortly after 3 a.m. ET, but I'd bet that Randolph probably hadn't stopped laughing by then. It's not his problem anymore. The Mets' circus will go on, until somebody stands up and tells them that you cannot possibly do business this way -- and until somebody actually listens.

Since Omar and Bernazard have, according to basically every other source, been working at cross-purposes regarding Randolph for quite some time, lumping them together doesn't really fly. Also, Buster's attributing a lot of agency to his marionette.

Look, either Omar is in charge, or he's not. If he's not, then he can't be expected to have people listen to him, or to change the situation. And if that's the case, then I want to see someone called out on the carpet. It's tough to tell, because his writing is so poor, but Buster apparently believes that Jeff Wilpon has helmed, for a long time, a leaky, ill-run organization -- there's no other reason to include the crap about the Kazmir trade. If this is the case, then the jibes about Omar using "flimsy words" and "lawyer-speak" are just mean-spirited. What's he supposed to do?

So let's stop the pussy-footing around, and name some names here. We're a big boy, we write for the Worldwide Leader. You can stand up to a few cable magnates now and again.

Oh, Please

Spare us.

I understand why Willie Randolph was fired. In fact, due to the time I spend talking to people connected to the team, I am probably aware of why he was fired better than most people.

Up next: Matt Cerrone's exclusive take on why the Scott Kazmir trade was a bad idea.

Synonyms

Words being used to describe the Mets front office this morning:

"Absurd, [reckless], circus," "cowards, sick," "sad, bizarre, embarrassment" ...

... and then there's the Post's Mike Vaccaro, who gets a pull quote of his own:

Well, the men who run the Mets are quite obviously simple men, and sinister men, cowards cloaked in "no comments," who have seen the way their baseball team has performed this year obviously decided: People don't just need to be fired.

They need to be humiliated.

What a crowd, these bums are, all of them, from the Wilpons at the top to Omar Minaya down below, all of them who conspired to botch this firing worse than any firing has ever been botched. Ever. You wouldn't trust these guys to run a 7-11, let alone a National League baseball team. What a joke. What a cowardly, dastardly joke.

A midnight massacre.

A 3 a.m. thrashing.

Disgraceful. Utterly, completely, disgraceful.

New Mets!

P.S. Buster Olney's nonsensical ESPN blog will probably get fisked later this afternoon, once I work up a good lather about it.

The Purge and the New Season

And one morning we awoke and the deed was done.

So what now?

The only thing you can hope for is that the players take this moment to forget everything that's transpired over the past 10 months, that they free their minds of all the failure and disappointment attendant on this organization since last September.

As for us, the fans, we got what we asked for. No matter where we stood on Willie as a manager, I think we all agree that the circus surrounding Willie's status had become distracting, almost even nauseating.

Looking at how things ended, it's tough to say why the team didn't pull the trigger earlier, but it doesn't make any difference now. What's done is done and all that's left is to move forward.

* * * * *

You can read an obituary of Willie on another web site (or, perhaps, in the coming days if Sip, Ched, or Nails feels compels to write one of their own).

But today is all about the future. When Jerry Manuel addresses his team for the first time, I want him to stress that point. Forget everything that's happened to this point. Forget September. Forget 7 up with 17 to play. Forget 35-36. Forget it all.

Forget the circus and just focus on baseball again.

* * * * *

A move of this magnitude needed to happen. Having failed to respond to last season's collapse with inspired play in the first half of this season, something needed to happen to shake things up.

Be that as it may, I'm not sure this move will have the intended effect; I don't know that we'll see rebirth and renewal on the diamond tonight. Time will tell.

Time has already told that the 2006 team that brought us so much joy has not aged well. In the wee hours of the day today, the Mets began dismantling that team.

And so we move forward.

Farewill, Willie.

- A.F.O.M.G.

Change We Can Believe In

Word is the only thing keeping Willie Randolph in the manager's office at Shea Stadium is 1,200 miles of mountain and prairie between New York and Kansas City. That's where Freff Wilpon (because really I can't tell the difference anymore) is meeting with the architects behind Citi Field, and firing the manager when the owner's out of town seemed somehow unsavory.

Most of the contributors on this site have been calling for Willie's head for quite some time. But as we hurdle forward to the big moment, I find myself reconsidering. Maybe it's not Willie's fault after all. Maybe it's...

* * * * *

There was a time there when Omar Minaya could do no wrong. His first offseason he inked Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, the best pitcher and position player available on the free agent market.

It was an important psychological boost for a franchise in freefall. A team with three consecutive losing seasons under its belt had debuted two rising stars in David Wright and Jose Reyes, but had, inexplicably, opted to trade one of the best prospects in baseball for one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

And Omar came in and changed all that, and his golden touch didn't hurt. Trading Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady? Jae Seo for Duaner Sanchez? Kris Benson for John Maine? Check, check, and check.

The Mets bounded their way to an 83-win season in 2005 before becoming the dominant team in the National League in 2006. It was good to be alive.

And then, almost as suddenly, it all came crashing down. Brian Bannister for Ambiorix Burgos, signing Guiellermo Mota, letting Chad Bradford walk because he wanted three years before bringing in Scott Schoenweis for three years. Miss, miss, and miss.

Carlos Delgado sulked, Moises Alou broke his body, and Luis Castillo remained Luis Castillo.

And that's what brings us to June 13, 2008.

* * * * *

It's hard to know how much difference a new manager is going to make. As Lister and others have said, this team just doesn't hit enough to be good. They have three reliable hitters on any given day, and a handful of very poor ones. It's hard to win consistently with that kind of mix.

For their part, Mets fans seem to be waking up to the idea that what's rotten with this team may occur a few floors up from the clubhouse.

Fully 89% of respondents in a Daily News poll blame either Omar Minaya (44%) or the players (45%) for the Mets' struggles this season (total number polled is unavailable). You can read the latter as an indictment of the manager (he's the one motivating and preparing them), but I read it as an indictment of the general manager (he's the one who assembled them).

* * * * *

Honestly, I go back and forth on this question. On paper you still think this team has the talent to win ball games (forget what I said earlier). Then again, on performance you think this team deserves to be exactly where it is today (remember what I said earlier).

What I and others feel certain about is that the Mets need to make a change. But if they axe the guy who positions the players and not the man who chooses them, is that really change we can believe in?

Where's Barack Obama's change machine when you need it!

- A.F.O.M.G.

Scenes From a Maul

[The New York Mets' locker room following Thursday's 10-inning, 5-4 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Closer Billy Wagner has blown his second save in 20 hours. Teammates come by his locker to pat him on the shoulder and wish him well.]

Marlon Anderson: Billy, man, shrug it off. You'll be fine.

Billy Wagner: [Staring at floor] Thanks, Marlon. I appreciate that.

MA: It was just a tough one. We had chances to get a few more, and to get out of that last inning, but...

BW: Yup. Just one of those games.

MA: I've got to ask you, though, Billy. It's probably just a coincidence, but I've still gotta ask. Ever since I handed out that inspirational sheet in the team meeting the other day, you've just fallen apart. You've blown saves in back-to-back games, and on both occasions, you just looked like complete crap doing it. Did you not like my sheet or something? Was there a problem?

BW: What hey now?

MA: You know, the inspirational sheet. It had a bunch of pump-up slogans on it, a ton of good will, and some math on what it will take for us to get into the playoffs. To get to 92 wins. Stuff like that. You might have seen something about it in the New York Times.

BW: Hell, no.

MA: [Looks puzzled]

BW: Aw, Marlon, I wasn't sure what that thing was. I assumed you were just trying to get me to buy Girl Scout Cookies or donate to the NRA or some shit like that, so I threw it out. Sorry about that.

MA: But Billy, everyone else was reading it right there. It said right at the top, "What the Mets Need to Do to Get to the Playoffs." You know, I put some work into this thing. Did you not even glance at it?

BW: [Spits tobacco juice on the carpet] Well, I can't read or write.

MA: Oh ...

------------------------

[The New York Mets' locker room following Thursday's 10-inning, 5-4 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Third baseman David Wright has emerged from the shower and has walked over to talk to catcher Ramon Castro, who hit a home run and a double.]

David Wright: Hey, Ramon, great game today. You were swinging the bat like crazy.

Ramon Castro: [Grunts in an accepting manner]

DW: I've just got to ask you a question about one play. Bases loaded, nobody out, top of the ninth inning, and Orlando Hudson hit a chopper back to Jose at short. He threw the ball to you and we got the first out at the plate, but because the ball was hit right at him, Chris Young hadn't got a good lead and was caught way too close to bag at second base. He would have been out by a mile if you had thrown the ball to me at third base. And I was screaming like a madman for the ball. But I guess you didn't hear. Is that right, Ramon? Did you just not hear?

RC: [Grunts in a neutral tone]

DW: I only ask because that would have been a pretty big double play, and as things turned out, it probably would have gotten us out of the inning and delivered the win. So...

RC: [Grunts menacingly]

DW: Ramon, are you going to say anything to me?

RC: [Spins around, eyes alight with fury] Puny humans always bother Castro! [Unhinges jaw, leans over and swallows Wright's head whole and bites it off. Wright's headless body runs around the locker room for a few seconds before falling into Moises Alou's locker.]

----------------------------------

[The New York Mets' locker room following Thursday's 10-inning, 5-4 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rookie Chris Aguila, just up from Triple-A New Orleans, grounded into a game-ending double play. He sits at his locker, visibly upset. He is being consoled by Jose Reyes.]

Jose Reyes: Hey man, baseball is the best. This happen sometime. But you keep going, right? Beep beep.

Chris Aguila: It was a stupid swing. It was exactly what he wanted me to do, and I bailed him out. Damn it.

JR: Hey man, just keep your head up. This a great game here. They pay you money to play the game. What could be better than that? It only one game. Beep beep.

CA: It wasn't a very good first impression, I know that.

JR: That life, man.

[Mets reliever Aaron Heilman storms across the locker room, angry.]

Aaron Heilman: You blew it for us, rook! [Grabs Aguila by the shirtsleeves.] We had that game, and you blew it! What's your problem, rook! Who taught you how to play this game, anyways? [Shakes Aguila vigorously]

CA: Help!

JR: Beep beep.

AH: Plays like that are the reason we ... [Falls backward, nose bleeding profusely, having been karate-kicked in the face by Endy Chavez. Chavez is then hit over the back of the head with a folding chair wielded by Joe Smith.]

Joe Smith: WWE style, yeah!

CA: What the hell is going on here?

----------------------------

[The New York Mets' locker room following Thursday's 10-inning, 5-4 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Carlos Beltran is calmly discussing the game with Carlos Delgado.]

Carlos Beltran: You see who was sitting right behind our dugout?

Carlos Delgado: No, who?

CB: It was those guys from Y2K. The bloggers. The ones who think it's funny to make fun of the Yankees.

CD: Those guys? Man, they always write about how much I suck.

CB: True.

CD: Still, I kind of like when they make fun of Roger Clemens. And that post about "Sex in the City" was spot on.

CB: Sure. I just wish they could have come to a better game, that's all.

CD: Me too, man. Me too.

Classic!

Something special just happened.

Billy Wagner just gave up that three-run homerun, eliminating all the positive vibes of Mike Pelfrey beating Brandon Webb, raising questions about Willie Randolph's handling of his pitching staff, and all that good stuff.

And for the first time all year, the Mets losing didn't bother me. It was like the [bad? good? familar?] old days, when I found the Mets' ability to lose amusing, even somehow charming.

After it happened I called Sip, who was at the game. He couldn't really hear me, but we were both cracking up. It was so predictable, so funny, so... Mets.

Bless this team.

- A.F.O.M.G.

Omar and the Future

Some months ago, I was talking with Sip about his time with the Diamondbacks and their GM Josh Byrnes. We both agreed (which as regular readers know, is a rare thing) that signing Byrnes to an 8-year contract was a really important thing for the DBacks. A GM has to make long-term decisions for the team, yet his incentives are often misaligned to "win now" in order to save his job.

Enter the 2008 Mets. A month ago, I felt strongly that we needed to fire Willie in order to try – likely unsuccessfully – to jumpstart this team. I'd still like to see him fired. If everybody is on board with the roster – and at the start of this season, everybody was – then the manager should be responsible for performance. They've obviously underperformed, and so Willie should go. In addition, he's a terrible strategic manager.

An example: here are Scott Schoeneweis' splits over the last two years:

2007 vs Righties: .316/.390/.574 = .963 OPS
2008 vs Righties: .286/.392/..452 = .845 OPS

2007 vs Lefties: .204/.308/.247 = .556 OPS
2008 vs Lefties: .130/.226/.196 = .422 OPS

Yet, in that time, 56% of the hitters Schoeneweis has pitched to have been righties. Talk about putting your players in a position to fail.

But I don't really feel strongly about this. In fact, I don't really feel strongly about anything about the 2008 Mets. Mainly because I don't know what to think.

Here's the one thing I do feel strongly about: The Mets need to decide whether Omar is the right person for the job and tell him in the plainest terms possible. If they feel he's the right man, they should tell him, with no stipulations, that he will be the GM for the next 5 years.

If he's not, he needs to be fired ASAP so that somebody they do have confidence in can make the crucial decisions about the team's future that need to be made in the next 7 weeks.

It's a decision that we the fans don't really have enough information to make. Putting together a ball club is going to be different in the post-steroid era. Players will revert to their old form of improving through their 20s, peaking between 27-29, and then declining.

Some teams have built themselves for this reality. Look at the Rays. They've signed Evan Longoria until he's 30, James Shields until he's 34, and Scott Kazmir until he's 28. The steroid era model of signing free agents in their late 20s and reaping multiple years of peak play are over.

Can Omar adapt to this new model? I don't know. None of us do. But Mets management needs to find out ASAP. Hopefully the Mets flip the switch and get hot in the next month rendering this discussion moot. But if they're around .500 in the middle of July, what does Omar do?

Can he trade Billy Wagner if he knows the only way to save his job is for a mathematically improbably run in the last 2 months? You certainly need Wags, and not prospects, for that to happen.

If Beltran heats up, or if a team is willing to gamble that a change of scenery will let him play a major role in a pennant drive, can Omar trade him? Or will a torrid Beltran be key to saving Omar's job?

I'm not in a position to judge if Omar is the right guy for our team's future. The team he's built this year doesn't seem to be right for the post-steroid era.

I do know that a GM without job security this July could be disastrous for the Mets.

Food for thought.

- Nails

All That Is Solid Melts Into Air

When the season began it all looked so promising. A team that finished 88-74 returned essentially the same roster, subbing in the best pitcher in the game for an aging Tom Glavine, and replacing Guillermo Mota with Duaner Sanchez. It looked like a sure thing.

It's difficult to understand why it's gone so wrong. Is it age? Overconfidence? Disinterest? All of the above?

I don't know what it is, but I know a broken team when I see it. No matter how solid they looked coming in to the year, and for all the positive vibes generated by a 7-2 stretch last week, the Mets are now 30-32.

And really, there's no reason they shouldn't be. On the season, the Mets have scored 2 more runs than they've allowed. Any team with those kind of splits (except of course the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks) is a .500 team. It's not bad luck, it's the odds evening out.

My high school JV soccer coach used to say that soccer was a very simple game: at the end of play, the team that scores more goals shall be declared the winner. The same logic applies in baseball. You can't expect to be a first division team when you score only as many runs as you allow.

And you can't expect to be a first division team when you run a Mike Pelfrey out there every 5 days. I know we're all supposed to believe in Pelf again, but come on, his three goods starts this year have come against the Dodgers, Padres, and Nationals

The unifying theme here? They're all terrible offensive teams! By OPS they're the third worst, second worst, and, um, first worst teams in the National League. Oh, and in case you were wondering where the Mets rank, they're fourth worst.

I don't want to pile on Pelfrey or make it sound like it's all his fault; it's not. You also can't expect to be an upper division team when your first baseman can't hit his weight, or your leftfielder is incapable of staying healthy.

It doesn't mean trading for Delgado or signing Alou was the wrong move at the time, but neither can be expected to be major contributors to a playoff team in 2008.

The point is, it's time for us all to stop deluding ourselves. The Mets are a .500 team because they deserve to be. Forget how solid you thought they'd be. Forget it. That dream is dead. Think great teams don't disappear in one or two years' time? Go tell that to a White Sox fan.

Doesn't mean this team is in a terrible place. They still have two really good starting pitchers (Johan and John Maine) and two really good position players (Wright and Reyes) to build around.

They also have a very tradeable commodity in Billy Wagner. A hot month or two from Carlos Beltran could turn him in to a hot commodity as well; if he doesn't heat up I'd hang on to him -- no reason to trade him for less than he's worth.

* * * * *

The scariest thought of all is that it's June 9 and I'm tempted to say these Mets are done.

I've been trading e-mails with Nails today. One thing I definitely agree with about is that when I look at this team, it doesn't strike me as a .500 team. You look at the pieces and you think it should be good, maybe even very good.

The reason that it's not is what's unknowable from where I sit. As I said earlier, I know a broken team when I see it. The question for me then is how do you fix the break? Do you fire the manager? Do you fire the GM? Do you firesale?

Tough questions. Shitty ones to ask in June.

- A.F.O.M.G.

2008 MLB Draft LiveBlog

Coming at you live through the Mets' two first-round picks (18 and 22), at least, and probably the sandwich guy as well. Mmm ... sandwich.

2:00 p.m. --- "Tampa Bay Rays in the house!" declares a fan in huge sunglasses and an even larger neon blue wig. Indeed. This draft is taking place at something called The Milk House at Disney's Wide World of Sports Complex. Gary Sheffield cannot be pleased.

2:01 p.m. -- Karl Ravech also can't believe he's working from something called the Milk House. (The ESPN crew: Ravech, Gammo, former Oriole Chris Singleton, and the GM Steve Phillips). Jim Callis from Baseball America (that bespectacled geek) and Keith Law are on speed dial.

2:05 p.m. -- Phillips: "Players are graded on a two to eight scale, two being poor, eight being excellent, five being average. Scott Kazmir was a 23."

2:08 p.m. -- Gammo, on the unpredictability of college stats: "What I'm hearing right now is that teams are evaluating players based on how they do on Friday." I.e., if they can play well while high, they must be good. (No, seriously, it's because college teams pitch their best guys on Friday, usually.)

2:11 p.m. -- Here comes Bud Selig, wearing a sharp gray windowpane suit and a dotted red tie. He looks like hell, and sounds even worse. He still comes across a million times better than John McCain did the other night.

2:16 p.m. -- The Rays' fans are in the house! Tampa takes George high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first overall pick, going for the best player rather than need (Florida State catcher Buster Posey was the other projected choice). Beckham apparently has lightning-quick wrists, highly projectable power, and is dating a Spice Girl. Weird.

2:22 p.m. -- The Pirates snag Pedro Alvarez, the slugging 3B from Vanderbilt, at No. 2. Cheddar's roomie, a Commodore himself, presumably approves.

2:27 p.m. -- Has anyone actually used the Dial 7 Car and Limousine Service? I have nothing against these folks, and their ads don't actually annoy me that much. You also can't beat the ease of use factor.

2:28 p.m. -- The Royals spring for Florida high school first baseman Eric Hosmer, a Scott Boras client who was all set to go to Arizona State if he didn't get a huge bonus. Presumably, Kansas City is going to lay out that bonus.

2:34 p.m. -- University of San Diego southpaw Brian Matusz goes to the Orioles at No. 4, the first pitcher off the board. Matusz is fairly familiar with the city of Baltimore already, as relatives of his have been smuggling drugs into town through the docks for years.

2:38 p.m. -- Sound the alarm! The Giants appear to have made a smart move! They take Posey, the USC catcher, at No. 5, despite his reported $12 million price tag. Posey allegedly profiles as the next Jorge Posada, or something like him, which is the kind of upside you want when you're batting Benji Molina at cleanup (hot start notwithstanding).

2:44 p.m. -- Apparently not scared by his girly-ass name, the Fish grab the next-best catcher, Cali high schooler Kyle Skipworth, at No. 6.

2:46 p.m. -- Quick check on the Jays and the Yanks. Whoops! Toronto is whaling on the Bombers, 7-2, with Wang already out of the game in the fifth inning. Just showed a quick shot of him in the dugout, and he looks sadder than I've ever seen him. Awww. And wait. Now Ross Ohlendorf seems to be growing a mustache as well. What the hell is this? Only the white guys on the Yankees get to grow the 'stache? This requires an investigation.

2:50 p.m. -- In another money-related surprise, Yonder Alonso, first baseman from the University of Miami, goes to the Reds at No. 7. All the small-market teams, splashing the cash. Ravech tells us that Alonso is a workout partner of Alex Rodriguez, which makes me think he should immediately be tested for 'roids.

2:52 p.m. -- A discussion of the relative merits of high school v. college ensues. Singleton likes collegiate development, whereas Phillips believes that you'll get the best instruction from pro coaches, and encourages players to go pro out of high school. Which makes sense. If Phillips can't be educated, he doesn't want anyone else to be either.

2:55 p.m. -- The ChiSox take the second shortstop Beckham, UGA's Gordon. Ravech can't resist comparing him to Jeter, "a guy you appreciate more when you see him every day." Phillips trips over himself to agree. Shit, I see Jeter practically every day, and I appreciate him less for it. Maybe because he's on my fantasy team. Callis then rambles for a solid minute, blinking and rocking his head back and forth like Dustin Hoffman. "His bat plays at second. His bat plays at second. I'm a good driver."

3:00 p.m. -- The Nats select University of Missouri righty Aaron Crow, who played in high school under the name "Eric Draven." Heh. In a telephone interview with Ravech, he certainly SOUNDS dead.

3:05 p.m. -- The Top 10 rounded out by Houston, who opt for the third catcher of the day, Stanford's Jason Castro. Ravech makes an "American Idol" joke that completely escapes me. Everyone immediately agrees the pick is a big reach. Coming from Houston, that's no surprise.

3:11 p.m. -- The University of South Carolina's Justin Smoak goes 6-foot-4, 215, has soft hands at first base, switch hits, and has power to all fields. Ravech compares him to Mark Teixeira; Gammo compares him to Chipper Jones. I don't care if the Braves don't have a first-round pick; I still can't believe they didn't land him somehow. Anyway, Texas has him.

3:13 p.m. -- In a video interview live from the Port of Miami, Yonder Alonso takes the opportunity to thank God. His Lord has not prevented him, however, from sporting Jim Carrey's haircut from "Dumb and Dumber." Not a common Cuban look.

3:16 p.m. -- More 'Canes! Billy Beane and Co. take Rickie Weeks' lil' bro, Jemile (rhymes with "The Green Mile" or "Jimmy Rollins is infantile"). Also a second baseman. This was a guy the Metsies had been linked with.

3:21 p.m. -- Big-assed Arizona State first baseman Brett Wallace goes to the Cards at No. 13. If you're in college and your body looks like Matt Stairs', you need to make changes. Also, speaking of blocked, where the hell is this guy going to play?

3:24 p.m. -- Singleton tries to spin Wallace's tubbiness as "determination to play the game your way." Not buying it.

3:27 p.m. -- Minnesota opts for two-way Cali high school talent Aaron Hicks, a graduate of the Compton baseball academy in L.A. I should have saved that "Friday" joke. Gammo immediately goes weepy on us, somewhat unnecessarily. Look. I like the idea of MLB investing in inner-city academies, and I believe they need to do more for high school ball. There's an obligation there, and I think even if there weren't it would be good for the sport in the long run. But let's be real -- this is far from an Obama moment here.

3:37 p.m. -- The Dodgers want high school third baseman Ethan Martin, who might go play quarterback at Clemson. And here's Gordon Beckham on the video link! He's got Ringo Starr's haircut circa 1964, and a gentle Southern lilt. Ravech asks him about winning the Cape Cod League home run title, and Beckham compliments the league, even name-checking known Cape fanatic Gammo in the process. That draws a laugh from the ESPN crew, who aren't used to players demonstrating anything like, you know, personality or good humor. And now the Brewers reach for Canuck catcher Brett Lawrie at No. 16.

3:43 p.m. -- The Jays, currently in the process of blowing it against the Yanks, take first baseman David Cooper out of Cal. Mets up next.

3:48 p.m. -- More Sun Devils! New York takes Arizona State first baseman Ike Davis at No. 18. First thought -- I will be able to root for a guy named Ike pretty easily. Law sez he's a "25, 30, 35 home run guy in the big leagues," which is something of a wide range. He kind of looked like crap on the Cape last summer (.246/.308/.296 in 57 ABs for the Wareham Gatemen), but he's hit 16 homers this college season.

3:55 p.m. -- Cubbies take a reliever from TCU. Eh.

3:59 p.m. -- The Mariners, currently in meltdown mode, make another mistake by taking UGA reliever Josh Fields at No. 20. I saw Cyle Hankerd, formerly of USC and currently in the D-Backs' system, hit a bomb of a home run off this guy in the NECBL All-Star Game a couple of years back. Law calls it a bad pick "philosophically."

4:05 p.m. -- The Tiggers take 'Zona righty Ryan Perry, a Cape league all-star. Mets on deck again.

4:10 p.m. -- And ... it's Reese Havens, a shortstop out of the University of South Carolina. Phillips calls him "gritty" and "a baseball player." Ick. Gammo suggests he'll be moved to catcher at some point as "the next Russell Martin," which is the sort of thing I'd be interested in. Hit .315 in the Cape league, which is excellent, and has a .359/.486/.645 line with 18 HR, which at least suggest he'll be able to do something at the plate in the bigs.

4:13 p.m. -- That's it for me, folks. The Mets have a sandwich pick to go.

The Joba Decision: Uh Oh

I had never bet on a baseball game in my entire life... until Tuesday night:

Blue Jays (Halladay) (+105)

@

Yankees (Chamberlain).


The best pitcher in the American League, an underdog, against a pitcher on a 70 pitch pitch-count making what may be the most anticipated/controversial debut of a generation.

...................

What the Yankees are doing with Joba Chamberlain would be the most obvious decision you could make if the Yankees were any other team in baseball.

If Joba is a front-line prospect and a future number 1 starter, than you make him a starter. Whether you decide to do it before the season or during the season to me doesn't really matter.

Either way, you are going to limit his pitches and protect his arm. You are going to build his confidence with the hope that in a year or two he can become the young ace that you had always envisioned.

But these are the NEW YORK YANKEES.



They are still run by a loud mouth, painful on the eye, man with the last name of Steinbrenner.

They are still the team that will get called out after one bad month, that will completely flip the switch on two young arms after 6 weeks and still MUST make the playoffs.

To the Yankee faithful, moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation is not about developing a dominant starter. It is about losing the game's best setup man.


...............

The Yankeees don't develop talent. Or let me say this another way. They don't depend on developing talent to succeed.

When they called up Robinson Cano and Chien Ming Wang in 2005 there were ZERO expectations. The team was struggling and Brian Cashman decided to take a shot on a couple of young kids.

But two weeks earlier, 6 Yankee fans could have named either of those guys.

Joba Chamberlain is arguably the team's biggest star. Ok, he is not A-Rod or Jeter. But is there a guy on the team that creates more buzz than Joba?

I mean how many guys are so easily identified by one name.

Pedro, Manny, Joba.



Today, Joba is thrown into the definition of a no-win situation.

If he struggles as a starter, this decision will be questioned forever. How can you give up on a dominant setup man/closer of the future when bullpen has become so important to modern baseball?

If he is great, its because he is supposed to be great. He is Joba. He throws hard and shows emotion.


.............

I think this move is a terrible one...For the Yankees.

I bet against the Yankees last night because I knew I would see 6 innings of Yankee bullpen. And the Yankee bullpen is flat out bad.

Kyle Farnsworth, Latroy Hawkins, Edwar Ramirez are now the main setup man. These are the guys that people know. These guys just aren't good.

The Yankees are going to lose more games in the 6th-8th inning than most teams in baseball. Without question they have the worst middle relief in their division, which is also arguably the most talented offensive decision in the game.

And what's going to happen the first time Kyle Farnsworth blows a lead in the eighth?

So the pressure on these guys will be immense. The Yankees are asking average relievers to fill the role of the most dominant setup man in the game.


..............


And then there is Joba Chamberlain, the starter.

How many innings will they possibly throw this guy this season? The Yankees would protect his arm with the secret service if they could for three reasons.

1. He is their ace of the future
2. With the initial failures of Kennedy and Hughes, they need Chamberlain to be great to justify ever using young talent again.
3. They can not get this guy injured. God forbid this guy breaks a toe nail and all of a sudden, the second guessers have all the ammo they need to question the midseason move to the rotation. And then hell breaks loose.

So in 2008, the Yankees and their very loyal new millenium fans are not even going to see the full Joba Chamberlain. They are going to see a guy who never throws more than 100 pitches and probably never goes more than six innings.

And two more negatives will come from Joba the starter.

1. The newly depleted bullpen will be overworked, forced to pitch 4 innings every five days.

2. If Joba is throwing 98-99 mph over one or two innings, what is he throwing over 5 innings?

I was always so amazed when John Smoltz was converted to closer and all of a sudden he was throwing literally 100MPH.



Through out his career he threw 94-95 MPH, but when he needed to throw an inning of a game he could really turn it on.

Is Joba going to over-exert himself and get hurt? Or is he going to be a 93-95mph guy when he is a big league starter?


...............


There is simply too much pressure on any and everyone in the Yankee organization with this decision to move Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen in the middle of the season.

A first year manager, a gm in the last year of his contract, and a 22-year old country boy from Nebraska with a giant bullseye on their back.

The Yankees don't accept losing.

Yet they made a decision that in the short term makes them a worse ball club.

Chamberlain can not be anything short of great, otherwise people will question the decision.

The bullpen cannot be anything short of as good, otherwise people will question the decision.

And the Yankees cannot do anything less than make the playoffs, otherwise people will question the decision.

There is simply too much that can go wrong. For a 28-30 team that needs to make the playoffs to meet expectations, this team is simply set for failure.

And Joba will be smack in the middle of the controversy.

This is going to get really interesting.


...............


Couple side notes:

1. How awful is Hillary Clinton? Even my dad hates her and he doesn't hate anything except for traffic around the Lincoln Tunnel. Her performance on Tuesday night can only be rivaled by those of Armando Benitez.

2. Nice job by Pedro. Quality start, threw hard, looked fluid. I'll take it. Glad throwing him out there for the 6th didn't backfire.


Vaya,
sip


(Pics courtesy of nymag.com, about.com, scout.com)