The Story So Far

(Note: Cheddar Ben runs down the N.L. East immediately below this final offseason salvo by A.F.O.M.G.)

Policy Adjustment

Not many people know this about me, but generally speaking there is one day every year when I am absolutely fine with the Mets losing: the other team's home opener.

Now god knows I don't like to see it happen, but take the 2005 season opener, which was in Cincinnati against the Reds. You remember the 2005 season opener, don't you? Pedro's first start as a Met, the most dominant outing of his Met career when he struck 12 batters out in 6 innings.

It was also Carlos Beltran's first day as a Met, and believe it or not, things actually looked great for Beltran that first day of 2005. The Mole Man had 3 hits including a long home run to right center field.

It all looked so promising, but then Willie handed the ball over to Manny Aybar, and then he handed it over to Braden Looper, and by the time the dust settled the Mets had suffered what was really quite a devastating loss, 7-6, on a walk-off home run by Joe Randa.

When it was over I was upset, but as the hours went by I grew calm, calmer than I ever would have been if it had been game 48, say.

The reason is that for one day and one day only I can take some satisfaction in the happiness of an opposing team's fan base.

I know how much baseball means to people. I know how long the offseason is and how anxiously people look forward to their team's home opener.

There's just that extra element of electricity on day 1, you know? There's the pomp and spectacle of it all, the red, white and blue trim on the stadium walls, the fireworks displays, the reading of names to introduce the players -- it's a special day. And if, on that one day, the team's home fans go home happy, there's a little part of me that can appreciate that that's probably for the best.

But this year? This year I say fuck all that. Fuck all that and fuck the Cardinals, those World Series-winning, Mr. Glass-mocking, last cookie-eating bastards. I don't care how nice Sip says the people there are, for my money their championship last year is the answer to a future jeopardy question asking "Why was the three-division format in Major League Baseball abandoned?"

Their title was a fluke, a lark played by the baseball gods in which an altogether undeserving team was allowed to win. Never again will I find satisfaction in the opening day pleasure of their fans. No, the 2006 World Series Championship banner adorning whatever crevice of their stadium it is has spoiled all that. For now and forever.

So yeah, these three games to open the season in St. Louis, I don't want the Mets to win, I want them to dominate. I want them to send a message right off the bat to the Cardinal faithful. And why? Cuz next year is now, bitches. Let's go!!!!

* * * * *

So Here We Are

Now that I've gotten that out of my system, let's focus on the positives. Baseball is back. Thank god baseball is back.

What a long offseason it's been. The recurring nightmares about curveballs down the middle, of Yadier Molina rounding the bases, of Braden Looper (Braden Looper for god's sake!) mocking my favorite player... all of it left a bad taste in my mouth.

And it was such a shame too. 2006 was such a pleasure for me. I had never seen a Mets team dominate like that, and to see it in action was a really special thing for me.

I will always love the Mets, and I'll always support them and live and die with them through the good years and bad, but last year, for the first time in a long time, I was really proud of them again.

And so was the entire city. Everywhere you looked you'd see crisp Mets caps, the beautiful look of fresh orange on blue. You'd see your fellow fans out and about and if you were an outgoing type or if you'd had a few beers, you'd say hello and talk about the team for a moment. I can't tell you how many times that happened to me last year, and it never got old.

And then it all came crashing down so suddenly. I remember that rainy October night at Shea Stadium and the numbness of the train ride home. I remember how I was depressed for basically the next month. I took the loss pretty hard.

But here we are now and it's all set to start again. The days at the office with my attention split between my work and the game I'm following on ESPN. The nights watching games with my roomies, my friends, or with complete strangers. The trips to Shea, good old Shea, and the rush I get out of being with the crowd. It's all starting up again, and no matter what happens in the months that follow, the simple fact of having baseball in my life will make me a generally more happy person.

But that said, I'm confident going in to 2007. My prediction is the Mets win 93 games, slightly less than last year, slightly more than what most other people seem to be projecting. We probably won't win as many 1-run games this year, but here's betting we don't lose as many games to lefty starters this year either.

These are heady times, Mets fans. It's a championship we want, it's a championship we've been thinking about since last year ended as devastatingly as it did.

As we head into another year of Mets baseball, I want to take one final trip to the end of 2006. I leave you here with an e-mail I received the day after the Mets were eliminated, October 20, 2006. The sender is one of my sister's good friends from college, a huge Red Sox fan. His letter meant a lot to me then and I find it motivates me now.

"I'm sorry, [A.F.O.M.G.]. I'm sorry.

However, quick story: In Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS I sat in the upper tier at Yankee Stadium with my best friend Max, the bended brim of our Sox baseball caps pulled down below our eyes, our hearts and minds with Pedro, the man we grew up idolizing together. We sat next to these two guys from Nebraska (late-20's) who had been huge Sox fans since they were little kids. After Boone's homerun disappeared into the left-field bleachers I was crying as hard as I ever have in my whole life, just sobbing uncontrollably, and one of the guys, Jake, looks at me and says, "Don't worry, we are going to be back here next year. Same place, same situation. Theo's got us going in the right direction and we will be back." At the time, it meant nothing, and I left the Bronx that night embittered with baseball, Grady Little and the Red Sox. Sure enough, I stayed in touch with those guys over the next year, and after Game 7 in 2004 that we both attended we met outside Yankee Stadium and reveled in our joy together.

Look, I know this means nothing now, but the Mets will be back. Wright, Reyes and Beltran provide them with such a good core, all at such important positions... They will be back. I am telling you. Ya still gotta believe."

And that's really what it comes down to, you know? Ya gotta believe. "Ya gotta believe" means let the Phillies talk. It means let the Steve Phillips' project us to finish in 3rd. Fuckembabe. We have the heartache of last year, sure, but we also have our Mets, we have each other, and all of us here, even pessimists like Sip, all of us believe.

Now let's start the show.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of mlb.com and usatoday.com)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL East

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, AL Central, NL Central, and AL East. Today? It's the granddaddy of them all. In expected order of finish ...

The New York Mets
2006 record: 97-65
Peace: LF Spliff Floyd, RHP/annoyance Steve Trashel, RHPs Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez and Brian Bannister, LHP Darren Oliver
What's up?: OF Moises Alou, OF Ben Johnson, RHP Ambiorix Burgos, IF Damion Easley, LHP Scott Schoeneweis, RHP Aaron Sele (?), RHP Joe Smith

Half-full: That's right, bitches, we're back for another round of domination. Don't believe me? Sorry, that ain't my deparment. It looks pretty clear from here. The theme is improvement. You've got one of the bomb offenses in the league that just added another big bat in Alou, an excellent bet to better the production seen from the injured Floyd/Endy Magic combination. Then in right field, where nine (count 'em) different Mets suited up last year, you'd have to say some combination of Shawn Green and an improving Lastings Milledge can at least mirror what the team got there. That additional steadiness should cancel out any second-year struggles from Jose Valentin and Paul LoDuca, which I see as kind of likely if not unavoidable. But hey, here come the All-Stars, led by a guy who's going to build on his second straight dynamite season (Wright) and the MVP candidate who wasn't, Beltran. Jose Reyes broke out in 2006, and there's no telling what he's going to do in '07 -- he could slip back toward 2005 a bit, or he could shoot the moon and morph into a combination of Rickey Henderson and Barry Larkin. (Pretty heady stuff for a guy called "Mr. Glass.") Either way, you're dealing with one of the most spectacular commodities in the game, a guy I had little faith in before last year but one who might have more upside than anyone else around. There are questions in the rotation, but I see this team as putting up so many runs that their staff, like last year, can weather more than its share of rough outings.

Half-empty: Oh, boy, a lot can go wrong when you've got two 40-year-olds fronting your rotation. Blood clots, sore necks, bad hammies, AARP ... there's a lot of evils to consider. This site has covered the relative merits of Oliver Perez in some detail; suffice to say that the "half-empty" case for him involves a paper hat and a cone of fries. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are winners in my book, but neither has anything resembling an established performance level to base your projection off of. Can the Mets get into pitching trouble very quickly? You'd better believe it. The bullpen will be stung by the losses of both Sanchez and Mota; right now, it looks like Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Sele (in the long role, ahead of Dave Williams), Chan Ho Park (moving to setup) and righty specialist Joe Smith, which looks like a solid but essentially middling group of pitchers. Collapses from Valentin (recall those 2005 numbers) and LoDuca are real possibilities, and if Beltran ever does what he did last year again, the more'll be the surprise.

Guide to hating: Not around here, at least. A special shout goes out to Smith, a former North Adams SteepleCat (the summer collegiate team I covered up in Massachusetts) and a hell of a guy. The Mets snagged him in the third round of the draft last year out of Wright State, and he's been impressing the shit out of everybody in camp as an NRI. If he makes the team and contributes anything, it's basically a huge heads-up pick by the front office -- sidearming college righties aren't exactly hot commodities.

Additional reading: Look who yer askin'.

The Philadelphia Phillies
2006 record: 85-77
Peace: C Mike Lieberthal, 1B/OF Jeff Conine, IF Jose Hernandez, RHP Gavin Floyd, LHP Aaron Fultz, LHP Randy Wolf
What's up?: C Rod Barajas, 3B Wes Helms, RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Adam Eaton, RHP Antonio Alfonseca

Half-full: Have you heard? The Phillies are going to be in the running for a divisional title this year. Oh, boy, that's exciting! I see where the feeling comes from. On paper, their rotation is just as deep as any in the National League, led by an above-average innings eater in Garcia and flanked by two young guns with smoking stuff (Cole Hamels and the loathsome Brett Myers). Jamie Moyer is Jamie Moyer, and some combination of Eaton and Jon Lieber (whoever's healthy) will keep the team solid at No. 5. On offense, a decent outfield combination backs up a rather productive infield trio (what with two MVP candidates and all). Moreover, the team had the best offense in the league last year despite playing with out-and-out sinkholes at 3B last year, and they've replaced that bunch of clowns with a guy whose rate stats were .329/.390/.575. Okay.

Half-empty: Luckily, that guy is Wes Helms. Phew. As for the rest, suffice to say that Philly would really prefer that Hamels (132 IP last year) stay healthy and Myers stay away from family court; neither of those things is likely. The whole argument about Pat Burrell protecting Ryan Howard in the lineup is stupid; I'd prefer to see how Howard does for himself after what almost certainly was a career year before we start blaming other people for others' future woes. Also, their bullpen is a mess, the arm Tom Gordon's pretty curveball could disappear forever one a moment's notice, and there's nobody around to back him up, really. This looks, in short, like a typically disappointing Phillies team.

Guide to hating: Almost everyone, I'd say.

Additional reading: Beerleaguer

The Hotlanta Braves
2006 record: 79-83
Peace: 2B Marcus Giles, 1B Adam LaRoche, C Tank Pratt, RHP Danys Baez
What's up?: RHP Rafael Soriano, LHP Mike Gonzalez, 1B/C Craig Wilson

Half-full: They look like they've got a good front of the bullpen, led by Fat Bob Wickman and the two guys I mentioned up there. Strong to very strong. They say Tim Hudson's got his groove back, and I suppose I'll give them that, and Smoltz had yet another awesome year. (Although there should be a rule that if you want to suggest that Tommy the Spy is going to get old all of a sudden, you have to spend half again more time saying the same stuff about Smoltzie.) Brian McCann might be the best catcher in baseball by the end of the season.

Half-empty: That said, this talk about them jumping right back to the division title is stuff and nonsense. As far as I can see, they have holes at 1B, 2B, LF, RF and two starting pitcher positions. That's not assuming the inevitable Chipper Jones injury, or that Edgar Renteria has an acid flashback and thinks he's back in Boston, or even that impending free agent Andruw Jones gets traded away before the deadline for prospects (as is, I've seen repeatedly, rather likely). Caring people are concerned about our rotation, aren't they? Well, starters Kyle Davies and Lance Cormier had WHIPs of 1.94 and 1.75 last year -- that's what I call a little bit disturbing. Mike Hampton may smooth some of that out when he comes back, but No. 3 starter Chuck James is no cinch to hold onto his rookie form. The guys they're plugging in at some of these hole positions (Kelly Johnson at 2B, Ryan Langerhans at LF) are no more than okay until proven otherwise.

Guide to hating: Look, I don't hate the guy per se, but I simply won't have this conversation any more. Jeff Francoeur is a well-below-average player. End of story. The guy looks like a million bucks out there, has loads of power (.260/.293/.449, 29 HR) and given his age and strengths, has plenty of room to improve. But no amount of dingers or RBI make up for a piddling .293 OBP, especially out of a corner outfield slot, especially when you're defense is only so-so. He may or may not become a star -- he's certainly not one yet. Moving on ... Now that he's left the Yanks, Craig Wilson can presumably regrow his big, blond porn star mustache. Not yet, but soon. And, oh, Chipper ain't no good.

Additional reading: Velcro Vernacular

The Florida Marlins
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: IF Wes Helms, RHP Yusmeiro Petit
What's up?: RHP Jorge Julio

Half-full: So much young talent, so very good. Well, not all of it. Some things, like Dan Uggla's 2006 season, cannot be explained by the words of men (.282/.339/.480, 27 HR). But if all you have is a core of Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle, you might as well throw your youngsters at the wall in a glop and see what sticks. So, they found some winners like the no-hit king Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, and some duds (everyone they put in center field). It was the right move then and now.

Half-empty: One of the big winners from last season who may not be around from this one is Josh Johnson, he of the 12-7 record and 3.10 ERA at age 22. His ulnar injury may keep him out for the whole year, which sucks for the Marlins. His spot will be filled by Sergio Mitre, which is certainly my idea of a downer. Anyway, the back end of the rotation and bullpen will keep the team from winning all the games it deserves to, and Joe Borchard in RF is a pretty uninspiring choice. As of now, the team's going to go with a guy named Alejandro De Aza in center, and believe me when I tell you that nobody has ever heard of this guy. Nobody. He may or may not have been playing for the Hebrew Oilers last year.

Guide to hating: Dontrelle's offseason DUI put him on the shit list, at least until I saw him flash that winning smile again. Oh, Dontrelle, I can't stay mad at you! Just stay beautiful. Miguel Cabrera has a rep for being lazy and uncoachable and all that jazz, but I enjoy him as well. In fact, with Mike Jacobs around, the only guy I think will really get booed with venom at Shea is new closer Jorge Julio who, god willing, we'll never see.

Additional reading: Marlins Today

The Washington Nationals
2006 record: 71-91
Peace: 2B Jose Vidro, RF Jose Guillen, LF Alfonso Soriano, hope
What's up?: 1B/drug fiend Dmitri Young, LHP Ray King, RHP Jerome Williams

Half-full: Hah. Hahahaha. Hahahahahahaha. Hrm.

Half-empty: The thing is, they've got three or four young position players you'd like to have around, not counting the badly damaged and out-forever Nick Johnson. As all of us David Wright-philes know, old teammate Ryan Zimmerman is a complete stud, and one of those guys we can all appreciate. RF Austin Kearns and SS/2B Felipe Lopez were heisted from the Reds last summer, and OF Chris Snelling could do something in the unlikely event he gets any playing time. On the pitching side, there's literally two guys to care about -- starter John Patterson and closer Chad Cordero. Everything else is dross. Theirs may be the worst starting rotation ever. Close your eyes.

Guide to hating: Jose Guillen's gone -- plus. They treated Frank Robinson like shit as they were booting him to the door -- minus. That smug bastard Soriano left them high and dry for the Windy City -- plus. They may replace him with Alex Escobar -- big minus. Dmitri Young will add a sinister layer of discontent to this awful team -- big plus. Christian Guzman is back from his season-long injury to poison the airwaves of America. Biiig minus.

Additional reading: FEMA

Predictions: Mets 90-72, Phillies 87-75, Braves 81-81, Marlins 75-87, Nats 58-104

2007 Season Predictions: The Sip

We wouldn't be baseball's most popular blog if we didn't spit out some predictions on the upcoming season. After all, considering our years in the business, multiple conversations with scouts and front office executives and keen eye for talent, our opinions are simply better than all of yours. That is a fact.

Or at least, me, AFOMG and Cheddar know the three most of any people that regularly write baseball for this site, so if you're interested in where we see this season going, read on playa.

American League East Division Champs: Boston Red Sox

This team has too much pitching, a killer lineup and with Papelbon back at the closer spot, as deep and solid of a bullpen as any team in baseball. If they get a healthy year out of JD Drew, which is 50/50 at best, this offense could be scary as all hell. There isn't a more exciting story in baseball than Dice K. If this guy can overcome the pressure and win 14-16 games with a great lineup behind him, this team will be the best in the American League.

AL Central Champs: Cleveland Indians

Call me biased. We all know I am. But in baseball's division with what many think are 3 of baseball's top 8 teams, it is the 4th team that will jump to the front of pack. Everyone saw what Travis Hafner can do. He's David Ortiz but much whiter. Jhonny Peralta is coming off an off year but will bounce back, Vic Martinez is a horse in the middle, and the Indians have the most exciting player in the American League in Grady Sizemore. He is pretty much a cross breed of Jose Reyes and David Wright. He could go .300, 30,100, 130 Runs, 30SB. He is that good. The pitching will also be there. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee are as good a 1-2-3 as you'll find in the game with Faustino Carmona and Jeremy Sowers at the back of the rotation providing the youthful exhuberance that any champion needs. The big question mark is the back of the Pen and Joe Borowski. If he can get them to August, they'll make the move for bullpen help in the stretch run.

AL West Champs: Oakland A's

Eveyrone is writing off the A's 'cause they lost Zito and Frank Thomas. If Rich Harden is healthy he is better than Zito and the Monster as a DH will hit some. But this team is young and only getting better. The rotation remains very deep. Danny Haren is ready to step in as the #2, Blanton the #3 and Loaiza the #4. That is pretty damn solid if you ask me. The pen still has Justin Duscherer setting up Huston Street. And they will hopefully have Bobby Crosby back and healthy, the same player Peter Gammons picked to be the MVP in the AL last year.

AL Wild Card: Whoever comes in 2nd in the AL central (Twins, Tigers, White Sox)

I like the White Sox. I think that team was a little too cocky for its own good last season, but they have all the talent and pitching in the world to go places.

NL East Champs: New Mets!

I have to. Otherwise, you guys would hate me.

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers

I think this is a 2-way race between the Reds and the Brewers. The Cardinals just don't have the pitching or really anyone to hit outside of Pujols. Rolen and Edmonds are a year older and now that they have the ring, the urgency is gone. The Cubs will be the laughing stock of baseball. Unless Prior and Wood do something crazy, they just don't have enough pitching. Zambrano, Lilly and Jason Marquis... doesn't really excite me. The Reds should be a tough team. With Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo they have a very formidable 1-2. But the Brewers are ready to emerge as the class of the National League. With Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano being joined by Jeff Suppan, the Brewers will be able to pitch. The lineup is young and getting better. Billy Hall can hack it. So can Prince Fielder. Richie Weeks will be healthy and improved. And the pen, assuming Francisco Cordero can hold up will be solid enough. Plus, this team has moxy. I love me some moxy.

NL West Champs: Arizona Diamondbacks

And not just 'cause I want to work for them. Get Unit in his comfort zone and he is as good of a #2 as any pitcher in the game. Brandon Webb is the reigning Cy Young winner. Then there is Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis, who they stole from the Brewers. They are stacked with young talent -- Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew and most importantly they have Byrnesy. Eric Byrnes is a winner. he is more likable than any person in the world and a dream for any clubhouse.

NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins

Everyone is talking about the Phillies, Phillies, Phillies. I have a simple theory. You can't win consistenly in a park like that. Pitchers can't pitch consistently when 368 feet to Left center is a homerun. But the Marlins -- this team scares me. They were very good last year and they were all rookies. Now they are all a year older and it's time to watch out. Miguel Cabrera may be the best young hitter in baseball. Hanley Ramirez is a bigger version of Jose Reyes. Dan Uggla can hack, so can Josh Willingham. The rotation has talent. Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez joining Dontrelle. Having just acquired Jorge Julio in the back of the pen, at least they have someone to give the ball to. All I'm saying is watch out. The Mets play in a much improved division, and the Mets are a worse team than they were in '06.

* * * * *

Divisional Playoffs, AL: Red Sox def. White Sox, Indians def. A's

Divisional Playoffs, NL: Mets def. Brewers, Marlins def. D'Backs

LCS, AL: Indians def. Red Sox

LCS, NL: Mets def. Marlins

World Series: Mets def. Indians As you can see I am trying to do to the Mets vs. Indians rivalry what Chris Berman did to 49ers/Bills.

* * * * *

NL MVP: Jose Reyes - This guy is on the brink of changing the game of baseball.

NL ROY: Kevin Kouzmannoff - This guy can kill the ball. We had him back in Cleveland and now that he will get 500 ABs, expect 25-90. RIP Lastings.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy - Arguably the best stuff in the game in a pitcher's park. He'll bounce back.

NL Manager of the Year: Fredi Gonzalez - They might give it to Willie as a little payback for '06, but when the Marlins shock baseball, their skip will reap the rewards.

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore - See above. He's going to put up special numbers and everyone from the Red Sox will hurt each other's chances.

AL ROY: Alex Gordon - If only because this is the most hyped prospect I have heard about in years. Baseball wants good press in KC and I can't see them giving this award to Dice K for Matsui reasons.

AL Cy Young: Rich Harden - If this guy is healthy he has the best stuff in the game. He hasn't been healthy for a full season yet. I'll take my chances here.

AL Manager of the year: Eric Wedge - Wedgie will earn his due for leading the surprise team in the AL.

VCD,

SM

Freak Out Time and Some Random Insight

Tomorrow will be our day of projections. Me, AFOMG and Cheddar will come at you with division winners, and the team that will lose to the Mets in the World Series. We will throw MVP's at you and Rookies of the Year. Will throw out anything and everything there is to look forward to in the 2007 season.

Today, I bring you a number of reasons to be shaking in your boots.

On Monday we got the devastating news about Duaner Sanchez. The man who carried our bullpen through the first 4 months of last season will be at least out for "at least four months" according to Omar Minaya.

Like Pedro, Sanchez is hopeful to return in August. Translation: we'll be lucky if either of these guys pitch a game for us all season.

Without Duaner for four months and THG Mota suspended for the first 50 games of the season, the Mets bullpen goes from a plus to a question mark. This will only result in a much heavier dependence on a starting rotation that really only has 2 pitchers penciled in.

To put it nicely, we are kind of fucked.

The plus side is that the Mets will have the best lineup in baseball this year. We'll be able to outscore teams enough that we won't have to worry about close games in the 7th and 8th innings.

But don't be shocked come June if the Mets are in a dog fight in the NL East and we are 8-10 blown saves by the bullpen deep.

That didn't happen last season, at least not too often.

A lot to be worried about. But I am a worrier. Stick with Happy Will and everything will not be lost.

Here's a random thought that really bothers me.

Why the hell is that movie with Ralph Fiennes called the Constant Gardener? When I hear that title I just assume it's a movie about someone who is constantly working in their garden. Can't say that excites me.

In Fight Club, we watch a movie about a fight club (makes sense) and in Wayne's World, we watch a movie about a show called Waynes World (also makes sense). But no, no, no. The Constant Gardener turns out to be a movie "exposing politcal corruption in Africa." How bout a title like "The Corruptor" or " An Inconvenient Truth About Politics in Africa"?

Either titls probably would have been enough to get me to check out the flick. Apparently it is a great movie, too. But due to the arrogance of whoever gave it such a dumb name, I will never see this movie.

Call that the Constant Promise.

VCD,

Sip

(Pics courtest of endscore.com, extremevideostore.com)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: AL East

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, AL Central, and NL Central. Today? We go downtown to the AL East. In expected order of finish ...

The Bronx Bombers
2006 record: 97-65
Peace: LHP Randy Johnson, RHP Cory Lidle (R.I.P.), OF/1B Gary Sheffield, RHP Jaret Wright, OF/DH Bernie Williams, CF Bubba Crosby
What's up?: LHP Kei Igawa, LHP Andy Pettitte, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B Josh Phelps

Half-full: For all the A-Rod and Unit-related griping one heard last year, the team scored 930 runs and gave up 767, which is very good. But obviously, you're not going to see the same type of performances by most of the Yanks again in 2007. By that I mean you can't really expect Robby Cano to hit like Rogers Hornsby again, or count on Chien-Ming Wang or the Moose to post sub-4.00 ERAs like they did last year. You can pencil in DJ to be the best shortstop in the American League again, but you can't expect him to have another "MVP" (hah!) year. That little bitch Posada quietly had another great year, and the Giambino had a much more productive campaign than anyone anticipated -- both of them are due for slippage. So, things are looking grim, right? Not really, mostly because the Bombers are likely to make up quite a bit of ground in the areas where injuries killed them last season. With Matsui and the Iron Sheff out, having to give ol' Bernie 427 at-bats last year was a drag on the offense. This year, Matsui (who had, of course, never missed a game before that) and a presumably improved Melky Cabrera will soak up all those plate appearances that went to Bernie, Bubba Crosby and Aaron Guiel. Bobby Abreu looked rejuvented in the Bronx, and Traitor Johnny played better a lot better than we thought he would. The offense will be there. And again, while the Yanks might not have an ace to boast of (at least until the Rocket walks through the door, goddamn it), you can count on some combination of the Jesus Freak, the Money Pit and the new Jap to be more productive than was the likes of Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small, Lidle, etc. I figure it all balances out, and they stay about the same, which is better than everyone else in the division can manage.

Half-empty: Wang's out for a while, making the Money Pit the Opening Day starter. While utterly hilarious, I'm trying not to overreact and predict utter doom. I don't think Igawa's going to do shit, which won't necessarily be a killer blow, but will certainly drag down the back of the rotation in an all-too-familiar manner. First base is a potential problem area, given that Phelps washed out with the D-Rays and Minky, um, sucks. The rotation is old and injury-prone, and the bullpen is apparently going to be Mo and Krazy Kyle again, which seems like a recipe for disaster. I'm not counting Scott Proctor, whose arm is due to fly into the dugout seats any second now. There's a hell of a souvenir for the Guiliani kid to take back to his golf team. Maybe we'll finally get a chance to see the Human Land Mass, Colter Bean, pitch in the bigs for more than a moment.

Guide to hating: If you needed to be told how to hate the Yankees, you wouldn't be at this site, now would you? (That was a compliment. Enjoy it.) All the same, it looks from here as if the Yanks will have two clear-cut good dudes on the roster (Minky and Tank Pratt), three allegedly good dudes (Proctor, Rivera and Mike Myers), two closet douchebags (Posada and Mussina), three out-and-out lunatics (Pettitte, Farnsworth, Luis Vizcaino), four "Scum of the Earth" nominees (Giambi, Jeter, Pavano, Damon), a couple of head cases (A-Rod, Abreu), two inscrutable Asians (Wang, Igawa) and a quotient of young punks who think the world owes them something (Cano, Cabrera, Phillips.) Not a lot of winners thurr, and plenty to follow over the course of the season.

Additional reading: Steve Goldman

The Boston Red Sox
2006 record: 86-76
Peace: SS Alex Gonzalez, 2B Mark Loretta
What's up?: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, SS Julio Lugo, OF J.D. Drew, RHP Brendan Donnelly, RHP Joel Piniero

Half-full: Well, at full strength, they're better than the Yankees. The positive case is actually very exciting -- on offense, Jason Varitek rebounds, and Coco Crisp and Lugo in 2005 form become a great speed tandem. Manny and Papi do their thing, Drew is effective for 135 games, Mike Lowell stays on track, Eric Hinske slugs .475 in a utility role, Wily Mo Pena hits a couple of home runs to Providence, etc. A rotation featuring healthy Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, plus Matsuzaka and whoever the fifth starter happens to be (Julian Tavarez, Jon "Blow Me, Cancer" Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Matt Clement should he happen to piece himself back together) is frankly outstanding. Papelbon is moving back to the closer's role, where he had some success last year, and there's at least a couple of live bodies behind him this time in Donnelly, J.C. Romero and such. There's a goodly amount of talent, and a decent amount of depth. It's a team with a better-than-average chance of getting to the playoffs.

Half-empty: Of course, that's not the same thing as "likely," now is it? You've got some older folks like Schilling and Tek playing with some folks like Coco and Lugo who just weren't good at all last year, plus the uncertainty surrounding Dice-K and Beckett, plus hoping that Lowell and Kevin Youkilis don't get any worse, plus hoping the bullpen actually comes together. The positive prediction for Drew makes him into a superstar; the widely-predicted alternative is that the Boston media sends him into a total thermonuclear meltdown such that babies born in Andover 50 years from now wake up with Hulk-like superpowers. ("Oh, thank you so much Dr. Banner!") That doesn't seem likely to me, but the fact that dozens of folks are confidently predicting his complete demise makes the best-case scenario seem that much more unlikely. The solid bench makes for a good hedge against any individual failure, but there's a lot of moving parts there, and in a divisional race where there's seldom much room for error, each little failure begets another.

Guide to hating: I don't have the slightest clue why anyone thinks putting Tavarez in the rotation makes sense, but if he sticks there, at least we'll be able to confidently predict when this sociopath will show up on our television sets. With Julian in the 'pen, you never knew when Francona was going to call for him and you'd have to start hissing at your screen. It was slightly nerve-racking. Given what happened with Brett Myers in Boston last year, inviting the wife-beating Lugo to town tempts karma a bit too much for my taste. I'd watch out for falling bricks on that one. Hating on Manny is pretty passe, but feel free if you must, or at the very least keep tuned into whatever Murray Chass is writing. There's a guy who feels you. On the flip side, Papelbon is basically D-Wright with a bit more pudge and a bit less style, neither of which are hanging offenses. In a perfect world, they become friends and eventually meet each other regularly to talk shop and eat ice cream.

Additional reading: Curt Schilling (yep)

The Toronto Blue Jays
2006 record: 87-75
Peace: OF Frank Catalanotto, C Bengie Molina, LHP Ted Lilly
What's up?: DH Frank Thomas, C/1B Jason Phillips, RHP Justin Speier

Half-full: Signing Troy Glaus last year worked out very well, actually. On paper, they've got two studs at the front of the rotation in Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, who was highly decent (1.30 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 118K in 136 IP) after coming back from injury. People that know more about this shit say his much-maligned mechanics finally looked as if they'd been straightened out, so that's something to be positive about. The offense should be boosted by the addition of Thomas and a full-season of Alexis Rios, who was tearing the cover off the ball until he got hurt last year. B.J. Ryan is a bonafide killer in the bullpen, and Vernon Wells is Beltran-lite in center field. But ...

Half-empty: ...they get murdered up the middle, with a scheduled double-play combination of 2B Aaron Hill (.291/.349/.386) and SS Royce Clayton (.235/.290/.329, in Cincy!), and the back end of their rotation is highly suspect. Lilly gave them nearly 200 innings of 4.31 ERA pitching last year, and they're counting on Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Okha and the battered John Thomson to get something approximating that done. I don't see it happening, and the backup plan is Josh Towers' 8.42 ERA in 12 starts. Matt Stairs is around to back up Rios and Reed Johnson (who hit .319/.390/.479 in about three-quarters of a season, and won't do that again) in the corner outfield slots, which is a good idea offensively and a hideous one defensively. Any time he DHes puts Thomas on the bench. Gregg Zaun will be fine as a full-time catcher. The problem is, it's a team without much upside, and what they do have innint enough to top the Yanks or Sox.

Guide to hating: The coaching staff, led by the Ultimate Fighting Championship's No. 1 contender John Gibbons (watch your back, Randy Couture), is obviously the main target here. What a maroon. As A.F.O.M.G. has indicated on occasion, I'm a big Frank Thomas guy, and I'll be rooting for him to succeed up in the Great White North. All of you should follow my lead on this. As for the rest of the team, I'd recommend taking a long, hard look at first baseman Lyle Overbay, who has always seemed pretty mouthy for a first baseman who doesn't hit home runs.

Additional reading: Batter's Box

The Tampa Devil Rays
2006 record: 61-101
Peace: Um, nobody
What's up?: 3B Akinori Iwamura

Half-full: They've got young position players coming out the tookus, not least of which is the projected super-stud outfield of Delmon Young in right, Rocco Baldelli in center and Carl Crawford in left. They're apparently going to use B.J. Upton as a Figginsesque super-utility type, which seems precisely correct. If he don't work out, there's 2006 draftee and desperate 3B prospect Evan Longoria to think about (he may move to 2B, where his bat would be even more impressive), and behind him, you've got Carl Everett clone Elijah Dukes moving up through the system. Joel Guzman, all of 21, may get a look at 1B. The pitching situation is obviously quite a bit more grim once you get past Kazmir, but the best-case scenario is that guys like Jae Seo and Casey Fossum don't KILL you over the first half of the season until prospects like Andrew Sonnastine and Jeff Niemann get called up to anchor the back end of the rotation. The bullpen resembles "The Hills Have Eyes 2," but that's to be expected when you've put no effort into doing something about it. By the time the team is ready to compete, the front office presumably will.

Half-empty: It's the Rays, so feel free to use your imagination here. Young, Dukes and Upton are all head cases, and everyone else is still getting carded at the local malt shoppe. What could go wrong? Everything imaginable. Dukes could show up on "To Catch a Predator;" Young could get tagged with having killed the Pakistani cricket coach. Kazmir could get hurt and never pitch again (stop smiling, Steve Phillips). But expectations are so low that there's really no further to sink here. If more losing is the prescription, then hell, we'll do this again next year.

Guide to hating: All hail Wiggy! At least now that he's on another team, that is. The perfect place for him, as sad as that is. There's a healthy smattering of spoiled brats on the team, but they're at least having the good sense to do their dirt in an intriguingly crazy way. As Chris Rock said, the only exciting relationships are bad ones. "Hey, you gave me crabs! That's exciting! I wonder what tomorrow's gonna bring." The next team we'll look at, for example, is awful in the most prosaic way possible, which is about as fun as a regularly scheduled colonoscopy. (To quote Rock's former pal Chris Farley, "I know from experience." Never mind.)

Additional reading: Rays of Light

The Baltimore Orioles
2006 record: 70-92
Peace: RHP LaTroy Hawkins, RHP Russ Ortiz, RHP Rodrigo Lopes
What's up?: OF Jay Payton, RHP Jaret Wright, DH Aubrey Huff, RHP Steve Trashel

Half-full: They also have three overpaid relievers coming in: Danny Baez, Jamie Walker, and former Met groundhog-killer Chad Bradford, each of whom should be better than completely awful, but there's really no guarantees there. One's a LOOGY, the other's a ROOGY; they're puzzle pieces, not building blocks. Otherwise, they've returned their solid up-the-middle infield in Ramon Hernandez, Miggy Tejada and Brian Roberts; if you can get a leadoff man and two power hitters out of those spots, you're ahead of the game. Nick Markakis could turn into Grady Sizemore-lite in right field, or maybe more of a Dwight Evans type, and that's not a bad thing. They've got a handful of interesting young arms.

Half-empty: Fuck these utterly uninteresting cowards. This team blows. Every single player in the starting lineup save Markakis is in obvious decline, unless you're going to hop on the ever-precarious Corey Patterson bandwagon. I love Miggy's attitude and bat, but he's going to stop playing with that same passion one of these days. Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Huff, the retarded signing of Jay Payton -- ladies and gentlemen, it's the 2003 All-Stars! How very like the Orioles. Then there's the rotation, which will be without noted ladies man Kris Benson for a while. I am not -- repeat, NOT -- a believer in No. 1 starter Erik Bedard, solid 2006 or not, and after that, things get very shaky very fast. Adam Loewen looks like a lefty A.J. Burnett circa 2000 -- very promising in a haphazard sort of way, but not especially good yet. We may have to accept that Daniel Cabrera is never going to solve his control problems. I think he was the one who put a baseball through my window last night. Then we get to the fun part in the back of the sack, in Jaret Wright and our man Steve Trashel; to put it plainly, these aren't really the guys you want to throw up there against the Yanks and Red Sox of the world.

Guide to hating: Stevie T., you're on the clock. You too, Jay, A.F.O.M.G.'s concerns notwithstanding. I happen to have a thing against corner outfielders who don't do anything particularly well, including defense. You're a very nice backup, and an awful everyday player. You sure found the right team, huh? Speaking of which, it's going to be Year Two of the Maryland Mazzone Era, and it's high time we started seeing some of that famed Pitching Coach Pixie Dust we all heard about ad nauseum for the better part of a decade. Leo, it's not like you're dealing with a bunch of nobodies this season. Your idiot owner went out and got you some parts to make a bullpen out of, and there's three or four dynamite young arms in the system, each in their early or mid-20s. They're impressionable and waiting for your healing touch. Besides, some results would go nicely with that smirk, fella.

Additional reading: Camden Chat

Predictions: Yankees 93-69, Red Sox 93-69, Blue Jays 88-76, Devil Rays 74-88, Orioles 68-94

So Close...

We are so close I can smell it.

Six days and counting until we kick off the 2007 campaign. We will travel to the home of the birdies that snatched away our 2006 and crushed a few bloggers' dreams of covering a Mets World Series.

I have such vivid memories of Game 5 in St. Louis, sitting four rows behind our boys with my second big bro. There is no worse feeling than rooting for a team on the road and losing. You have no support system. All you can do is grow angry internally.

With the final 4 field set, and 92% of our readers having the final 4 correct -- a hardy 2 out of 4 for the Sip, not too shabby -- all we must do now is get through the week.

For me, I am shaking at the thought at returning to the city where I was born and raised, hitting up Shea with the fellas and returning to my happy place.

Watching Thru The Fire, the Sebastian Telfair documentary, this past weekend, for what is probably the 13th time this month -- it's that unbelievable -- I realized maybe the greatest quote that I have ever heard. It may seem irrelevant now, but you'll see.

On the bus to the McDonald's All-American game, Telfair sat in a seat, flat brim hat cocked to the side yelling at all his teammates.

"If you ain't from New York, you a country boy."

The one response he got was from now Celtics center Al Jefferson, from rural Mississippi:

"I got people's in Jersey so I ain't no country boy."

As I have embarked on my many travels during my swinging 20's I have experienced a lot of different places. San Francisco, maybe the country's most peaceful city. Los Angeles, where everyone has really nice cars and cares way too much about the entertainment business. And then there were my ventures through the South that got me here.

Through all my adventures I have come up with one incontrovertible fact. There is no place like New York City.

My love/hate relationship with the city that I grew up in is undeniable, but my pride to call New York City my hometown is tremendous. As New Yorkers, we are a step sharper. We think more about things and are constantly on our toes. We walk to delis and live off the convenience of having everything we want at the drop of coin. We live in a city where on every block you can see people of all different races from all over the world.

There really is nothing like it.

I grew up in the same city as Sebastain Telfair. There aren't too many people like me that can say they grew up in a city so diverse and so rich with so many different cultures as New York City. And so I love her.

And as much as I love her,I love even more people from New York who are Mets fans.

If New York is my city, the Mets are one of a very few small group that really help define my place in that city.

I watch Mets games, wear the clothing, read about the team, write (rant) about the team, and talk to my friends and family about the team.

The Mets are as much Sippy Momo as the deli on my block, the chicken wing place by my house or the people of my neighborhood.

For almost 25 years they have defined my existence as a New Yorker.

Which is why I am smiling right now. For 6 months of every year I have an activity that I get to share with my best friends for three hours a day. To me, there aren't too many things better in life.

Can't wait to get home. For those headed to Shea two weeks from today, give me or AFOMG a shout. Would love to meet you all.

Vaya con dios,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of prosportpictures.com, boston.com, tripod.com)

Billy Benitez?

I've been toying around with a troubling thought today, one which I first expressed on MetsGeek. I've been thinking about Billy Wagner.

I remember when Wagner arrived at spring training last year he was quick to let people know that he was a lousy spring training performer, traditionally. The idea was that people shouldn't read too much into it if he came into camp and struggled -- not to worry, the message was, it's like this every year and my resume speaks for itself.

Wagner went on to have a fine season in 2006, collecting 40 saves against 5 blown saves and compiling a 2.24 ERA along the way.

All of which is to say that when I see that Wagner allowed 5 earned runs yesterday, I don't sweat it too much.

What I do find myself wondering, however, is whether Wagner hasn't boxed himself into a corner as regards his spring training performance, mentally speaking. What I mean is, he knows he's traditionally been a poor performer in Spring Training, he talks about it openly, and then he goes out there and performs poorly in Spring Training -- it sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If it were just a matter of Spring Training performance I wouldn't worry -- I'm a big believer that Spring Training means nothing for established guys like Wagner means nothing.

Psychological hurdles that players set for themselves mean something though, and I wonder whether Wagner doesn't have something of a psychological hurdle when it comes to the postseason.

I mean, the guy is acutely aware that he's a poor Spring Training performer, can you honestly tell me that he's not aware that he's a poor postseason performer? If he is, does it ever become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

All Mets fans remember the pain that was Armando Benitez. Dynamite closer in low pressure situations, deer in headlights when the heat was on. When Benitez came into playoff situations you basically knew the Mets were doomed. Now ask yourself, honestly, how did you feel about Wagner by the end of the postseason?

For Mets fans it's only been one playoff experience, but for Wagner it's been several. 9.00 playoff ERA in 1997. 18.00 ERA in 1998. 5.40 ERA in 2001. 16.88 ERA in the NLCS last year with the Mets.

The misery index presented above ignores his 0.00 ERA in 1999 as well as the 3.00 he put up against the Dodgers in the NLDS, but even those stats don't change the bottom line: for his career, Wagner has been a lousy postseason relief pitcher. End of story.

My worry is that Wagner knows that better than anybody else. If he does, and if he internalizes it the way he seems to have internalized his poor spring training record, he may have established a psychological hurdle that means more than nothing. One that means quite a lot, actually.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of sportsnetwork.com and sportsillustrated.com)

Stay in Texas

A quick apology for the late posts this week. We've been having some problems with our technology, which, to be honest, I don't know a fucking thing about.

See, we here Y2K, we don't miss posts. Some 18 months later and we are feeling better than ever, and for good reason.

We got past year 1 of The Curse. It would have killed me would if the Yankees had won the world series the year after we created a website announcing a curse barring them from doing so. The only thing that would have been better, a Yankee loss and a Mets win.

As we enter year 2 of this site and year 7 of the Yankees curse for ruining the purity baseball, one and only one thing stands in the way from a Sippy Momo guarantee that the Yankees will make it through 2007, ringless.

That one thing is a "potentially steroid pumping" fireballer from Texas who is commanding $4 million dollars to play the game that a certain left handed billionare would play for free.

Without Roger Clemens, the Yankees pitching just won't be there. With a weak bullpen before an aging/less dominant Mariano Rivera, the Yankees will rely heavily on the arms of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite and Chien Ming Wang.

In Wang, the Yankees have their best bet. He pounds the strikezone with a mid 90's sinker and fresh off a very impressive 2006 campaign appears ready to follow up in 2007 with another impressive showing.

But what happens when the rusting Mussina and Pettite hurt themselves or show wear or slow down or do whatever it is that all pitchers north of 35 do? (PLEASE NOT TOM GLAVINE)

The Yankees would then rest their hopes in a 21 year old kid, Phil Hughes, an overpaid crappy Japanese pitcher (Kei Igawa) or a guy who hasn't pitched in two years that has really only pitched one good season in his career (Carl Pavano).

Without Clemens, the Yankees might not make it to October. Not after losing Sheffield from the lineup and watching the Red Sox and Blue Jays continue to improve in the offseason.

But with Clemens... well, we might be changing the name of this site to Yankees2007.killme.org.

Add Clemens to a rotation and you get a power arm who will be fresh in September and October and push back Mussina and Pettite to 3 and 4, respectively, in a short series. The Yankees rotation goes from solid to scary and all of a sudden, the Yankees are the team to beat.

Brian Cashmen has done everything in his power to De-Yankee this Yankee team and make them the new Cashman Yankees. The team has the most money but spends it wisely. The team develops talent as opposed to stealing it.

But what happens come May 15th when the Yankees are 3 games back of the Red Sox and tied with the Blue Jays?

The back page of the Post runs a picture of Clemens in a Yankee uniform every day, which bothers me, but destroys my father who uses the Post as an escape on his train ride to work. Bother me, that is one thing. But mess with Senior and we have a problem.

The best thing that can happen to Yankee haters this season is for the weather in Texas to be nice enough that Roger Clemens decides to stick around.

Nothing to me would be sweeter than a Mets victory in October. But that will not come too easily. These Mets will need a ton of good fortune to make it back to October and even more to get to the Fall Classic.

Which is why it is always nice to have secondary interests. For me they are threefold.

1. A big year out of Y2K legend and close pal Eric Byrnes.
2. A resurgence at the Jake from our beloved Tribesmen.
3. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez talking wine and cheese over a sleepover in early October watching the Mets on Fox and the AL playoffs unfold before their eyes.

VCD,

Sip

Dancing, Dancing, Dancing!

Like most people in America, my bracket is in pretty decent shape. Nothing too funky went down last weekend in the NCAA's. Wisco lost, but not too many folks had them beating Florida.

Then, for all you people out there on the Kevin Durant bandwagon out there, a lot of you saw your hopes crushed by a USC team filled with sweet shooters and dudes who look like Nick Cannon.

So last Thursday I am sitting with two members of my gambling crew at the Sportsbook in Caesar's. I went down to Vegas just because I wanted a sense of the atmosphere come tourney time. I left my ATM card at home and put a couple of hundred dollars in my back pocket. This was business not pleasure.

Of my "crew" 8 of us decided to do a $100 winner take all. I know it's steep, but these are good friends, which means win or lose, no one is seeing that money for about 6 months.

(Side note: I think the biggest short coming of our generation is the inability to put things in the mail. I don't think I have ever had a stamp and an envelope at the same time and I don't know to0 many 20-somethings that do.)

Anyway, it was me Coach, and J Schubes having a few 9 a.m. cocktails to get the tourney started right. (Hey pops, mine was a virgin.) A couple of legends in the Momo circle and we were all excited for the "Madness" to begin.

Coach: Who's your final 4?
ME: I have Florida beating A&M with G-Town and Kansas
Schubes: Wait, seriously. FUCK! Me too.
Coach: You gotta be shitting me. Me three.
Schubes: I thought I was being clever
Coach: You know that's the Sports Guy's final 4 too.
ME: Kill me!!!

Three dudes in a pool of 8 people and we all had the same final 4 and finals. We all watch our fair share of college basketball and I guess we all talk to each other about it a lot. But seriously?

Knowing that my entire bracket rested on the fist three rounds of the tourney, I geared up.

The result: I think I had less games right than every single woman in the world.

Yeah, I know it's a pretty cliched joke, but what is it about women and office pools? Why are they so damn good at them? What's next? (The Old Sip would insert a sexist joke right here, but no more. Coop, you have changed my perspective on your team sex).

Tonight begins the round of 16 and most of my picks are of course identicial to Coach and Schubes.

Which means that one game and one game only will determine if I have a chance to win my bracket, even if I hit my entire final 4, finals and winner.

North Carolina vs. USC

Having developed a slight man crush on Kevin Durant over the course of this season, I was pretty confident that Texas would not make a run. Durant is the greatest 1 on 1 player in the history of the college game and if you think he is amazing in college, wait till he gets to the pros, adds 30 lbs and plays in a style catered to 1 on 1 play.

I'll say it. Durant should go #1

But I had Texas losing to USC. The Pac-10 was the best conference in the country all year and SC has three guards that can play and some athletes. When they are hitting their shots, they can play with anyone... so let's hit those shots boys.

Nick Young will be a lottery pick come June after he carries the Trojans to the Final 4. You heard it hear first and you will hear the first denial of this statement on Monday morning.

Because it's the tourney and its fun to pick a few upsets, I took USC to beat UNC in my bracket. At the time I didn't think much of it. Now I know this will determine whether or not my bracket is still alive on Saturday morning.

UNC to me is the most up and down team in the tourney. The reason is simple. Tyler Hansborough can disappear from games.

Without a dominant three point arsenal, especially with Ty Lawson now seeing more minutes, the Tar Heels depend on balance, depth and athleticism to win games. Most times this works. But on the nights when they are not hitting their shots, and Hansborough isn't bullying the paint, the Tar Heels are extremely vulnerable.

They showed it twice against Va Tech. They look awful against Gonzaga. And god willing, with the support of this community, they will lose again Friday night. Yes, AND I will bring you your 23rd district title. Go Pack! Go Pack!

PS:Word on the street is Rayshaun Terry has strep. That helps.

Otherwise, though, not a lot has changed. This tourney is so up and down. To pick winners is to be female, so most likely you should just fade the Sip.

But there you have it. Give me a Florida/ A&M final and give me a USC win Friday night and the first round of beers are on me, April 9th at Shea.

With that in mind, anyone have any tickets for me and the big fella?

PLEASE?!

Vaya con dios,
Sip

Pic courtesy of (Bodog.com, collegepublisher.com)

Spring Training Wheels

A question I've been playing around with the last couple days: In the year ahead, is it even possible that the Mets could be as good as they were a year ago?

In order to answer that question, let me clarify a little: I'm not asking whether the Mets can run away with the division like they did last year. The formula that led to last year's cake-walk took two (or five) to tango. The Mets were great and everyone else shat the bed.

We can't count on the latter in 2007. I think we've all realized by now that the Phillies are the it-team in the National League. They're the ones everybody's talking about, the ones who keep on chirping about how they're the best the NL East has to offer.

Apart from the Phillies, there's some concern out there about a resurgent Braves club in the year ahead. The Marlins should be decent again. The Nationals will get annihilated, yes, but the rest of the field looks improved.

What about the Mets? It's a funny thing with the Mets -- a lot of people are worried about our starting pitching, but for all the thought they devote to how shaky our rotation is, rarely do they mention that it was similarly shaky last season.

It's certainly worth noting that a HUGE benefit to the 2006 campaign was that Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine basically dominated in the early part of the season. Pedro's started 5-0, Glavine went a ridiculous 11-2 -- it all helped conceal the fact that the rest of the rotation was breaking down all around them.

This is a team that relied on Jose Lima, Geremi Gonzalez, Alay Soler and Victor Zambrano for various lengths of time last year; could John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey possibly be worse?

I'm fairly certain they couldn't be. Well that's not true, Perez could be. I'm pretty long on Perez but he's actually been worse than each of those guys, except for Lima, for statistically significant periods of time.

As for the bullpen, I'm pretty confident we've got enough pieces there to have similar success this coming year compared with what we had last year.

What about the lineup? The lineup's interesting. On the one hand, the lineup should be better off given the addition of Moises Alou. Alou should help against lefties and is a virtual lock to provide more production than Cliff Floyd (RIP) offered last year. So the lineup should be better in that regard.

On the other hand you've got a lot of guys who had extremely good seasons last year -- those players being Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Valentin. I don't think any of us expect as-good seasons from Valentin or Lo Duca -- what about the rest of the field?

I don't expect worse seasons from Reyes, Beltran, Wright or Delgado, but it could happen. Beltran had the finest season of his career year last year; Reyes was a .246 hitter through June 11; Wright has shown a troubling inability to hit for power since the Home Run Derby; Delgado is coming off surgery.

Don't get me wrong, I expect Beltran to have a similar season to the one he had last year, I expect more consistent seasons from Wright and Delgado (who nevertheless had fantastic seasons last year), and I expect Reyes to become a legitimate MVP candidate. Will it all happen? Well, it's not written, but the lineup should be stacked one way or another.

I mention all of this because I think some Mets fans have lost sight of the genuinely significant information that's available. Everybody's obsessing about the dismal spring training record. God knows I'm not happy about it, but in all of the discussion has anybody once mentioned that the Phillies are 7-13?

I remember how closely I followed Spring Training when I was young. There was one year there in the bleak early 90s when the Mets had a fantastic spring training and I was convinced the team was going all the way. Didn't happen. Why not? Because spring training is basically meaningless.

Players and teams use training wheels throughout the spring, trying to figure out what this pitch can do, or what this lineup configuration might look like. A lot of it is trial and error. Do you like to see players perform well? Of course. For established guys who will make the team one way ora nother does it really have any bearing? Not that anyone's ever been able to determine.

So the next time somebody corners you and starts worrying about how badly the Mets are doing right now, remind yourself that this team is very similar to the one we rolled out a year ago, the one that was the best team in the National League.

The rest of the field has caught up a little bit, but I'd be stunned if they'd made enough progress to close the gap on the defending NL East champions. Next year is now, son.

- A.F.O.M.G.

A St. Patrick's Day Miracle

What's up everyone? No previews from ol' Cheddar today. We're going to push the final two back to next week, when everything's a week closer to fruition, and that sick need for baseball knowledge is even more pronounced. Always thinking of you, folks.

Since I'm still playing a little bit of catch-up after turning in my Master's Project yesterday (and losing an entire 24 hours in a haze of not-sleep and coffeee), I hope everybody's St. Patrick's Day was interesting. It was, ironically, a particularly poor afternoon for the Irish; specficially, their national rugby team got hosed in the last minute of an important international tournament. It was the Six Nations, an annual round-robin tourney between England, Wales, Scotland, France, Ireland and those smarmy bastards in Italy.

It's the Northern Hemisphere equivalent to the Tri-Nations tournament played between South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. (There is, in case you didn't know, a lot of hemispheric pride floating around in rugby. Bizarre.)

Ireland had been kicking ass all along, and they went into the final day of the tournament knowing they would probably beat up on the Italians. At the same time, they knew the French (their rivals for the title) were also going to crush the Scots, and the title would come down to overall points difference. But Ireland was scheduled to play first, so they wouldn't know how many points they would need to score to win; France would.

So, the inevitable happened. Ireland busted up Italy 51-24, giving themselves a nice little cushion, only to see France come back with a 46-19 result over the roll-over Scots. The crushing blow was a try in the very last minute of the game that went upstairs to the television official -- like in hockey, if they're not sure of whether the ball was touched down in the scoring zone, they send it to the cameras.

An the official, a traitorous Irishman named Simon McDowell, awarded the try and the tournament to Sarkozy and Co. Their reaction was typical. "How like life, eh? They fucked up, we give it to them."

In other St. Patrick's Day news, our boy Kid Slick was doing some shopping up in the Bronx near his middle school in one of those discount hat joints. You know the type -- New Eras half-off, this stuff is almost certainly stolen. He's looking for some festive, green hatwear, and he comes across a whole row of green, St. Patrick's Day Mets jersey shirts, and he's pumped.

So, he goes up to the guy working the counter, and asks, "Do you guys have a Reyes shirt in green?" And the guy looks at him like he's a moron. So, Kid goes back to the rack, and finally realizes that every single shirt is a David Wright shirt, every single one. The implication being about as clear as can be. He had a laugh at that, and then walked out of the store. (He may have bought something first).

Anyway, I'll be back on the horse here soon enough. Keep checking out the previews and getting ready for the season. A new future awaits us!

A Hearty Comparison

The first four days of the NCAA tournament have come and gone and all I can say is that I am exhausted. It's like 4 days of New Year's Eve for the Sip. Games all day and the demons that come with. And after 2 rounds, my bracket remains pretty much intact, so that is a good thing.

Let me tell you something that ain't so good. The 6-14 New York Mets.

Not the best spring by any measurement, but at least we aren't the 2-16 D-Rays. The panic button might light up in my living room with all this losing mumbo jumbo, but when I took a moment to reflect on the early spring I realized that the New Mets are almost a direct parallel to one of the greatest teams in the history of the game.

Our leadoff hitter got jacked up this winter and is flat out killing the ball.

We lost our star veteran pitcher and are now trying to make up for it.

Our star hearthrob over at 3B got a big new contract and has gotten a little classier over the winter.

Our big guys in the middle of the lineup, Delgado and Beltran, are lying in the weeds.

Our kid, young Lastings is offering up a new image, getting his grown man on. Could he be reading playboys in the clubhouse too?

Does this all sound familiar to any of you guys? Are you seeing the parallels? Well ladies and gentlemen, here they are... your 1994 Cleveland Indians from the hit smash, Major League II.

The comparisons beteween Reyes and Willie Mays Hayes at the top of the lineup are undeniable. They are both coming off a breakout year and are both clobbering the ball in the spring.

Pedro is gone. Harris is gone.

David Wright is now a big shot playboy. Rick Vaughn's back with a cleaned up image.

Pedro Cerrano struggled through the Spring as he tried to cope with adjustments to life as a Buddhist.

Carlos Delgado is worried about the birth of his child that should happen sometime in the next couple of weeks.

Lastings Milledge is back and smiling and winning all of our hearts back. Rube Baker simply had us from the beginning.

The Tribe jumped out to a blistering 3-18 spring back in 1994 only to bounce back and beat the Chicago White Sox to make it to the World Series. With the insane similarities between our team and them, I can't imagine that anything will be any different in this upcoming season for the Mets.

My only concern. Can our boys get past the Wahoos of Cleveland?

VCD,

Sip

P.S. Definitely saw a 5-foot-4 Bill Maher crash a party I was at on Saturday night with what appeared to be a pair of ethnic prostitutes. Interesting stuff.

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL Central

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, and AL Central. Today? The crapshoot in the NL Central. In expected order of finish ...

The Milwaukee Brewers
2006 record: 75-87
Peace: LHP Doug Davis
What's up?: C Johnny Estrada, RHP Jeff Suppan

Half-full: Oh shoot. Look, every team in this division sucks in its own, special way. Especially the free-spending Cubs. I don't see any particular reason for any team in this division to win more than 85 games or so; that could be enough, seeing as how St. Louis took the crown, then the pennant and the World Series trophy last year with a mere 83 wins. So, putting the Brew Crew in the pole position is just another way of saying that I expect everyone else in this cracked-out circuit to remain just as incontinent as they were in 2006. Let's just get that out of the way. For Milwaukee, a good chunk of their young guys were hurt for much of last season, leading to way too much playing time for schlubs like Zach Jackson and David Bell. They'll move Bill Hall to center this year to make way for either Ryan Braun or Tony Graffanino at 3B (hope for the former), and healthy seasons from the rest of the young infield are the only way they'll compete. Corey Hart is waiting for a breakout season in right, and if Kevin Mench can get off his high horse and agree to be platooned with Geoff Jenkins in left field, Milwaukee will have itself an extremely productive lineup.

Half-empty: Ben Sheets, we're going to need you to stay healthy. He pitched 237 innings during his nasty 2004 year (0.98 WHIP, 2.70 ERA, 264 K, in case you didn't remember), and has since gone for 157 and 106 over the past two seasons, albeit without seeing his productivity really slip while on the mound. You want to say you can get him back in the rotation for good, but then again, you also want to see "American Idol"'s TV ratings start to plummet. Hasn't happened yet. Aside from the general threat of injury, there's also the risk that Suppan returns to pre-2006 form and the team's top free agent winds up screwing over the team entirely. The risk level of this can be described as "high." I think Prince Fielder ends up pulling a Ryan Howard this year, but with a guy his size, the downside is always either the Mo Vaughn Worst-Case Scenario or falling through the rotted-out floorboards of an old building, a la Bam Bam Bigelow in the famous ECW pay-per-view match against Taz where they both went through the bottom of the ring. Anybody have any idea what I'm talking about? No? Anyway, Mo had his MVP years before it got to the end, so look out for Prince.

Guide to hating: I don't have much to go with here aside from Suppan, who I'm hoping beyond hope has a secret allergy to processed meat products that will result in a slow, prolonged poisoning episode. Exposure to Polish Sausage-210, if you will. That'll learn him. Starting pitcher Chris Capuano is a personal favorite, but the better they dump Mench, the better.

Additional reading: The Brew Site

The Chicago Cubs
2006 record: 68-94
Peace: CF Juan Pierre, RHP Jerome Williams
What's up?: OF Alfonso Soriano, LHP Ted Lilly, RHP Jason Marquis, LF Spliff Floyd, 2B Mark DeRosa

Half-full: Look at their 2006 record -- half-full is not being the most expensive failure of all time. (Insert "Waterworld" joke here. Gills!) But rest assured that this prediction assumes a full season from Derrek Lee, who'll split the difference between his 2004 and '05 production if healthy, and SOME contributions from Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whether in the bullpen or in a few starts here and there. If that doesn't happen, then all the Tribune money their bed-ridden GM spent in the off-season will be good for nothing better than a bonus for the contract-writing team. Spending all winter locked in that office with their typewriters and g