The Story So Far

(Note: Cheddar Ben runs down the N.L. East immediately below this final offseason salvo by A.F.O.M.G.)

Policy Adjustment

Not many people know this about me, but generally speaking there is one day every year when I am absolutely fine with the Mets losing: the other team's home opener.

Now god knows I don't like to see it happen, but take the 2005 season opener, which was in Cincinnati against the Reds. You remember the 2005 season opener, don't you? Pedro's first start as a Met, the most dominant outing of his Met career when he struck 12 batters out in 6 innings.

It was also Carlos Beltran's first day as a Met, and believe it or not, things actually looked great for Beltran that first day of 2005. The Mole Man had 3 hits including a long home run to right center field.

It all looked so promising, but then Willie handed the ball over to Manny Aybar, and then he handed it over to Braden Looper, and by the time the dust settled the Mets had suffered what was really quite a devastating loss, 7-6, on a walk-off home run by Joe Randa.

When it was over I was upset, but as the hours went by I grew calm, calmer than I ever would have been if it had been game 48, say.

The reason is that for one day and one day only I can take some satisfaction in the happiness of an opposing team's fan base.

I know how much baseball means to people. I know how long the offseason is and how anxiously people look forward to their team's home opener.

There's just that extra element of electricity on day 1, you know? There's the pomp and spectacle of it all, the red, white and blue trim on the stadium walls, the fireworks displays, the reading of names to introduce the players -- it's a special day. And if, on that one day, the team's home fans go home happy, there's a little part of me that can appreciate that that's probably for the best.

But this year? This year I say fuck all that. Fuck all that and fuck the Cardinals, those World Series-winning, Mr. Glass-mocking, last cookie-eating bastards. I don't care how nice Sip says the people there are, for my money their championship last year is the answer to a future jeopardy question asking "Why was the three-division format in Major League Baseball abandoned?"

Their title was a fluke, a lark played by the baseball gods in which an altogether undeserving team was allowed to win. Never again will I find satisfaction in the opening day pleasure of their fans. No, the 2006 World Series Championship banner adorning whatever crevice of their stadium it is has spoiled all that. For now and forever.

So yeah, these three games to open the season in St. Louis, I don't want the Mets to win, I want them to dominate. I want them to send a message right off the bat to the Cardinal faithful. And why? Cuz next year is now, bitches. Let's go!!!!

* * * * *

So Here We Are

Now that I've gotten that out of my system, let's focus on the positives. Baseball is back. Thank god baseball is back.

What a long offseason it's been. The recurring nightmares about curveballs down the middle, of Yadier Molina rounding the bases, of Braden Looper (Braden Looper for god's sake!) mocking my favorite player... all of it left a bad taste in my mouth.

And it was such a shame too. 2006 was such a pleasure for me. I had never seen a Mets team dominate like that, and to see it in action was a really special thing for me.

I will always love the Mets, and I'll always support them and live and die with them through the good years and bad, but last year, for the first time in a long time, I was really proud of them again.

And so was the entire city. Everywhere you looked you'd see crisp Mets caps, the beautiful look of fresh orange on blue. You'd see your fellow fans out and about and if you were an outgoing type or if you'd had a few beers, you'd say hello and talk about the team for a moment. I can't tell you how many times that happened to me last year, and it never got old.

And then it all came crashing down so suddenly. I remember that rainy October night at Shea Stadium and the numbness of the train ride home. I remember how I was depressed for basically the next month. I took the loss pretty hard.

But here we are now and it's all set to start again. The days at the office with my attention split between my work and the game I'm following on ESPN. The nights watching games with my roomies, my friends, or with complete strangers. The trips to Shea, good old Shea, and the rush I get out of being with the crowd. It's all starting up again, and no matter what happens in the months that follow, the simple fact of having baseball in my life will make me a generally more happy person.

But that said, I'm confident going in to 2007. My prediction is the Mets win 93 games, slightly less than last year, slightly more than what most other people seem to be projecting. We probably won't win as many 1-run games this year, but here's betting we don't lose as many games to lefty starters this year either.

These are heady times, Mets fans. It's a championship we want, it's a championship we've been thinking about since last year ended as devastatingly as it did.

As we head into another year of Mets baseball, I want to take one final trip to the end of 2006. I leave you here with an e-mail I received the day after the Mets were eliminated, October 20, 2006. The sender is one of my sister's good friends from college, a huge Red Sox fan. His letter meant a lot to me then and I find it motivates me now.

"I'm sorry, [A.F.O.M.G.]. I'm sorry.

However, quick story: In Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS I sat in the upper tier at Yankee Stadium with my best friend Max, the bended brim of our Sox baseball caps pulled down below our eyes, our hearts and minds with Pedro, the man we grew up idolizing together. We sat next to these two guys from Nebraska (late-20's) who had been huge Sox fans since they were little kids. After Boone's homerun disappeared into the left-field bleachers I was crying as hard as I ever have in my whole life, just sobbing uncontrollably, and one of the guys, Jake, looks at me and says, "Don't worry, we are going to be back here next year. Same place, same situation. Theo's got us going in the right direction and we will be back." At the time, it meant nothing, and I left the Bronx that night embittered with baseball, Grady Little and the Red Sox. Sure enough, I stayed in touch with those guys over the next year, and after Game 7 in 2004 that we both attended we met outside Yankee Stadium and reveled in our joy together.

Look, I know this means nothing now, but the Mets will be back. Wright, Reyes and Beltran provide them with such a good core, all at such important positions... They will be back. I am telling you. Ya still gotta believe."

And that's really what it comes down to, you know? Ya gotta believe. "Ya gotta believe" means let the Phillies talk. It means let the Steve Phillips' project us to finish in 3rd. Fuckembabe. We have the heartache of last year, sure, but we also have our Mets, we have each other, and all of us here, even pessimists like Sip, all of us believe.

Now let's start the show.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of mlb.com and usatoday.com)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL East

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, AL Central, NL Central, and AL East. Today? It's the granddaddy of them all. In expected order of finish ...

The New York Mets
2006 record: 97-65
Peace: LF Spliff Floyd, RHP/annoyance Steve Trashel, RHPs Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez and Brian Bannister, LHP Darren Oliver
What's up?: OF Moises Alou, OF Ben Johnson, RHP Ambiorix Burgos, IF Damion Easley, LHP Scott Schoeneweis, RHP Aaron Sele (?), RHP Joe Smith

Half-full: That's right, bitches, we're back for another round of domination. Don't believe me? Sorry, that ain't my deparment. It looks pretty clear from here. The theme is improvement. You've got one of the bomb offenses in the league that just added another big bat in Alou, an excellent bet to better the production seen from the injured Floyd/Endy Magic combination. Then in right field, where nine (count 'em) different Mets suited up last year, you'd have to say some combination of Shawn Green and an improving Lastings Milledge can at least mirror what the team got there. That additional steadiness should cancel out any second-year struggles from Jose Valentin and Paul LoDuca, which I see as kind of likely if not unavoidable. But hey, here come the All-Stars, led by a guy who's going to build on his second straight dynamite season (Wright) and the MVP candidate who wasn't, Beltran. Jose Reyes broke out in 2006, and there's no telling what he's going to do in '07 -- he could slip back toward 2005 a bit, or he could shoot the moon and morph into a combination of Rickey Henderson and Barry Larkin. (Pretty heady stuff for a guy called "Mr. Glass.") Either way, you're dealing with one of the most spectacular commodities in the game, a guy I had little faith in before last year but one who might have more upside than anyone else around. There are questions in the rotation, but I see this team as putting up so many runs that their staff, like last year, can weather more than its share of rough outings.

Half-empty: Oh, boy, a lot can go wrong when you've got two 40-year-olds fronting your rotation. Blood clots, sore necks, bad hammies, AARP ... there's a lot of evils to consider. This site has covered the relative merits of Oliver Perez in some detail; suffice to say that the "half-empty" case for him involves a paper hat and a cone of fries. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are winners in my book, but neither has anything resembling an established performance level to base your projection off of. Can the Mets get into pitching trouble very quickly? You'd better believe it. The bullpen will be stung by the losses of both Sanchez and Mota; right now, it looks like Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Sele (in the long role, ahead of Dave Williams), Chan Ho Park (moving to setup) and righty specialist Joe Smith, which looks like a solid but essentially middling group of pitchers. Collapses from Valentin (recall those 2005 numbers) and LoDuca are real possibilities, and if Beltran ever does what he did last year again, the more'll be the surprise.

Guide to hating: Not around here, at least. A special shout goes out to Smith, a former North Adams SteepleCat (the summer collegiate team I covered up in Massachusetts) and a hell of a guy. The Mets snagged him in the third round of the draft last year out of Wright State, and he's been impressing the shit out of everybody in camp as an NRI. If he makes the team and contributes anything, it's basically a huge heads-up pick by the front office -- sidearming college righties aren't exactly hot commodities.

Additional reading: Look who yer askin'.

The Philadelphia Phillies
2006 record: 85-77
Peace: C Mike Lieberthal, 1B/OF Jeff Conine, IF Jose Hernandez, RHP Gavin Floyd, LHP Aaron Fultz, LHP Randy Wolf
What's up?: C Rod Barajas, 3B Wes Helms, RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Adam Eaton, RHP Antonio Alfonseca

Half-full: Have you heard? The Phillies are going to be in the running for a divisional title this year. Oh, boy, that's exciting! I see where the feeling comes from. On paper, their rotation is just as deep as any in the National League, led by an above-average innings eater in Garcia and flanked by two young guns with smoking stuff (Cole Hamels and the loathsome Brett Myers). Jamie Moyer is Jamie Moyer, and some combination of Eaton and Jon Lieber (whoever's healthy) will keep the team solid at No. 5. On offense, a decent outfield combination backs up a rather productive infield trio (what with two MVP candidates and all). Moreover, the team had the best offense in the league last year despite playing with out-and-out sinkholes at 3B last year, and they've replaced that bunch of clowns with a guy whose rate stats were .329/.390/.575. Okay.

Half-empty: Luckily, that guy is Wes Helms. Phew. As for the rest, suffice to say that Philly would really prefer that Hamels (132 IP last year) stay healthy and Myers stay away from family court; neither of those things is likely. The whole argument about Pat Burrell protecting Ryan Howard in the lineup is stupid; I'd prefer to see how Howard does for himself after what almost certainly was a career year before we start blaming other people for others' future woes. Also, their bullpen is a mess, the arm Tom Gordon's pretty curveball could disappear forever one a moment's notice, and there's nobody around to back him up, really. This looks, in short, like a typically disappointing Phillies team.

Guide to hating: Almost everyone, I'd say.

Additional reading: Beerleaguer

The Hotlanta Braves
2006 record: 79-83
Peace: 2B Marcus Giles, 1B Adam LaRoche, C Tank Pratt, RHP Danys Baez
What's up?: RHP Rafael Soriano, LHP Mike Gonzalez, 1B/C Craig Wilson

Half-full: They look like they've got a good front of the bullpen, led by Fat Bob Wickman and the two guys I mentioned up there. Strong to very strong. They say Tim Hudson's got his groove back, and I suppose I'll give them that, and Smoltz had yet another awesome year. (Although there should be a rule that if you want to suggest that Tommy the Spy is going to get old all of a sudden, you have to spend half again more time saying the same stuff about Smoltzie.) Brian McCann might be the best catcher in baseball by the end of the season.

Half-empty: That said, this talk about them jumping right back to the division title is stuff and nonsense. As far as I can see, they have holes at 1B, 2B, LF, RF and two starting pitcher positions. That's not assuming the inevitable Chipper Jones injury, or that Edgar Renteria has an acid flashback and thinks he's back in Boston, or even that impending free agent Andruw Jones gets traded away before the deadline for prospects (as is, I've seen repeatedly, rather likely). Caring people are concerned about our rotation, aren't they? Well, starters Kyle Davies and Lance Cormier had WHIPs of 1.94 and 1.75 last year -- that's what I call a little bit disturbing. Mike Hampton may smooth some of that out when he comes back, but No. 3 starter Chuck James is no cinch to hold onto his rookie form. The guys they're plugging in at some of these hole positions (Kelly Johnson at 2B, Ryan Langerhans at LF) are no more than okay until proven otherwise.

Guide to hating: Look, I don't hate the guy per se, but I simply won't have this conversation any more. Jeff Francoeur is a well-below-average player. End of story. The guy looks like a million bucks out there, has loads of power (.260/.293/.449, 29 HR) and given his age and strengths, has plenty of room to improve. But no amount of dingers or RBI make up for a piddling .293 OBP, especially out of a corner outfield slot, especially when you're defense is only so-so. He may or may not become a star -- he's certainly not one yet. Moving on ... Now that he's left the Yanks, Craig Wilson can presumably regrow his big, blond porn star mustache. Not yet, but soon. And, oh, Chipper ain't no good.

Additional reading: Velcro Vernacular

The Florida Marlins
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: IF Wes Helms, RHP Yusmeiro Petit
What's up?: RHP Jorge Julio

Half-full: So much young talent, so very good. Well, not all of it. Some things, like Dan Uggla's 2006 season, cannot be explained by the words of men (.282/.339/.480, 27 HR). But if all you have is a core of Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle, you might as well throw your youngsters at the wall in a glop and see what sticks. So, they found some winners like the no-hit king Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, and some duds (everyone they put in center field). It was the right move then and now.

Half-empty: One of the big winners from last season who may not be around from this one is Josh Johnson, he of the 12-7 record and 3.10 ERA at age 22. His ulnar injury may keep him out for the whole year, which sucks for the Marlins. His spot will be filled by Sergio Mitre, which is certainly my idea of a downer. Anyway, the back end of the rotation and bullpen will keep the team from winning all the games it deserves to, and Joe Borchard in RF is a pretty uninspiring choice. As of now, the team's going to go with a guy named Alejandro De Aza in center, and believe me when I tell you that nobody has ever heard of this guy. Nobody. He may or may not have been playing for the Hebrew Oilers last year.

Guide to hating: Dontrelle's offseason DUI put him on the shit list, at least until I saw him flash that winning smile again. Oh, Dontrelle, I can't stay mad at you! Just stay beautiful. Miguel Cabrera has a rep for being lazy and uncoachable and all that jazz, but I enjoy him as well. In fact, with Mike Jacobs around, the only guy I think will really get booed with venom at Shea is new closer Jorge Julio who, god willing, we'll never see.

Additional reading: Marlins Today

The Washington Nationals
2006 record: 71-91
Peace: 2B Jose Vidro, RF Jose Guillen, LF Alfonso Soriano, hope
What's up?: 1B/drug fiend Dmitri Young, LHP Ray King, RHP Jerome Williams

Half-full: Hah. Hahahaha. Hahahahahahaha. Hrm.

Half-empty: The thing is, they've got three or four young position players you'd like to have around, not counting the badly damaged and out-forever Nick Johnson. As all of us David Wright-philes know, old teammate Ryan Zimmerman is a complete stud, and one of those guys we can all appreciate. RF Austin Kearns and SS/2B Felipe Lopez were heisted from the Reds last summer, and OF Chris Snelling could do something in the unlikely event he gets any playing time. On the pitching side, there's literally two guys to care about -- starter John Patterson and closer Chad Cordero. Everything else is dross. Theirs may be the worst starting rotation ever. Close your eyes.

Guide to hating: Jose Guillen's gone -- plus. They treated Frank Robinson like shit as they were booting him to the door -- minus. That smug bastard Soriano left them high and dry for the Windy City -- plus. They may replace him with Alex Escobar -- big minus. Dmitri Young will add a sinister layer of discontent to this awful team -- big plus. Christian Guzman is back from his season-long injury to poison the airwaves of America. Biiig minus.

Additional reading: FEMA

Predictions: Mets 90-72, Phillies 87-75, Braves 81-81, Marlins 75-87, Nats 58-104

2007 Season Predictions: The Sip

We wouldn't be baseball's most popular blog if we didn't spit out some predictions on the upcoming season. After all, considering our years in the business, multiple conversations with scouts and front office executives and keen eye for talent, our opinions are simply better than all of yours. That is a fact.

Or at least, me, AFOMG and Cheddar know the three most of any people that regularly write baseball for this site, so if you're interested in where we see this season going, read on playa.

American League East Division Champs: Boston Red Sox

This team has too much pitching, a killer lineup and with Papelbon back at the closer spot, as deep and solid of a bullpen as any team in baseball. If they get a healthy year out of JD Drew, which is 50/50 at best, this offense could be scary as all hell. There isn't a more exciting story in baseball than Dice K. If this guy can overcome the pressure and win 14-16 games with a great lineup behind him, this team will be the best in the American League.

AL Central Champs: Cleveland Indians

Call me biased. We all know I am. But in baseball's division with what many think are 3 of baseball's top 8 teams, it is the 4th team that will jump to the front of pack. Everyone saw what Travis Hafner can do. He's David Ortiz but much whiter. Jhonny Peralta is coming off an off year but will bounce back, Vic Martinez is a horse in the middle, and the Indians have the most exciting player in the American League in Grady Sizemore. He is pretty much a cross breed of Jose Reyes and David Wright. He could go .300, 30,100, 130 Runs, 30SB. He is that good. The pitching will also be there. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee are as good a 1-2-3 as you'll find in the game with Faustino Carmona and Jeremy Sowers at the back of the rotation providing the youthful exhuberance that any champion needs. The big question mark is the back of the Pen and Joe Borowski. If he can get them to August, they'll make the move for bullpen help in the stretch run.

AL West Champs: Oakland A's

Eveyrone is writing off the A's 'cause they lost Zito and Frank Thomas. If Rich Harden is healthy he is better than Zito and the Monster as a DH will hit some. But this team is young and only getting better. The rotation remains very deep. Danny Haren is ready to step in as the #2, Blanton the #3 and Loaiza the #4. That is pretty damn solid if you ask me. The pen still has Justin Duscherer setting up Huston Street. And they will hopefully have Bobby Crosby back and healthy, the same player Peter Gammons picked to be the MVP in the AL last year.

AL Wild Card: Whoever comes in 2nd in the AL central (Twins, Tigers, White Sox)

I like the White Sox. I think that team was a little too cocky for its own good last season, but they have all the talent and pitching in the world to go places.

NL East Champs: New Mets!

I have to. Otherwise, you guys would hate me.

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers

I think this is a 2-way race between the Reds and the Brewers. The Cardinals just don't have the pitching or really anyone to hit outside of Pujols. Rolen and Edmonds are a year older and now that they have the ring, the urgency is gone. The Cubs will be the laughing stock of baseball. Unless Prior and Wood do something crazy, they just don't have enough pitching. Zambrano, Lilly and Jason Marquis... doesn't really excite me. The Reds should be a tough team. With Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo they have a very formidable 1-2. But the Brewers are ready to emerge as the class of the National League. With Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano being joined by Jeff Suppan, the Brewers will be able to pitch. The lineup is young and getting better. Billy Hall can hack it. So can Prince Fielder. Richie Weeks will be healthy and improved. And the pen, assuming Francisco Cordero can hold up will be solid enough. Plus, this team has moxy. I love me some moxy.

NL West Champs: Arizona Diamondbacks

And not just 'cause I want to work for them. Get Unit in his comfort zone and he is as good of a #2 as any pitcher in the game. Brandon Webb is the reigning Cy Young winner. Then there is Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis, who they stole from the Brewers. They are stacked with young talent -- Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew and most importantly they have Byrnesy. Eric Byrnes is a winner. he is more likable than any person in the world and a dream for any clubhouse.

NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins

Everyone is talking about the Phillies, Phillies, Phillies. I have a simple theory. You can't win consistenly in a park like that. Pitchers can't pitch consistently when 368 feet to Left center is a homerun. But the Marlins -- this team scares me. They were very good last year and they were all rookies. Now they are all a year older and it's time to watch out. Miguel Cabrera may be the best young hitter in baseball. Hanley Ramirez is a bigger version of Jose Reyes. Dan Uggla can hack, so can Josh Willingham. The rotation has talent. Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez joining Dontrelle. Having just acquired Jorge Julio in the back of the pen, at least they have someone to give the ball to. All I'm saying is watch out. The Mets play in a much improved division, and the Mets are a worse team than they were in '06.

* * * * *

Divisional Playoffs, AL: Red Sox def. White Sox, Indians def. A's

Divisional Playoffs, NL: Mets def. Brewers, Marlins def. D'Backs

LCS, AL: Indians def. Red Sox

LCS, NL: Mets def. Marlins

World Series: Mets def. Indians As you can see I am trying to do to the Mets vs. Indians rivalry what Chris Berman did to 49ers/Bills.

* * * * *

NL MVP: Jose Reyes - This guy is on the brink of changing the game of baseball.

NL ROY: Kevin Kouzmannoff - This guy can kill the ball. We had him back in Cleveland and now that he will get 500 ABs, expect 25-90. RIP Lastings.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy - Arguably the best stuff in the game in a pitcher's park. He'll bounce back.

NL Manager of the Year: Fredi Gonzalez - They might give it to Willie as a little payback for '06, but when the Marlins shock baseball, their skip will reap the rewards.

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore - See above. He's going to put up special numbers and everyone from the Red Sox will hurt each other's chances.

AL ROY: Alex Gordon - If only because this is the most hyped prospect I have heard about in years. Baseball wants good press in KC and I can't see them giving this award to Dice K for Matsui reasons.

AL Cy Young: Rich Harden - If this guy is healthy he has the best stuff in the game. He hasn't been healthy for a full season yet. I'll take my chances here.

AL Manager of the year: Eric Wedge - Wedgie will earn his due for leading the surprise team in the AL.

VCD,

SM

Freak Out Time and Some Random Insight

Tomorrow will be our day of projections. Me, AFOMG and Cheddar will come at you with division winners, and the team that will lose to the Mets in the World Series. We will throw MVP's at you and Rookies of the Year. Will throw out anything and everything there is to look forward to in the 2007 season.

Today, I bring you a number of reasons to be shaking in your boots.

On Monday we got the devastating news about Duaner Sanchez. The man who carried our bullpen through the first 4 months of last season will be at least out for "at least four months" according to Omar Minaya.

Like Pedro, Sanchez is hopeful to return in August. Translation: we'll be lucky if either of these guys pitch a game for us all season.

Without Duaner for four months and THG Mota suspended for the first 50 games of the season, the Mets bullpen goes from a plus to a question mark. This will only result in a much heavier dependence on a starting rotation that really only has 2 pitchers penciled in.

To put it nicely, we are kind of fucked.

The plus side is that the Mets will have the best lineup in baseball this year. We'll be able to outscore teams enough that we won't have to worry about close games in the 7th and 8th innings.

But don't be shocked come June if the Mets are in a dog fight in the NL East and we are 8-10 blown saves by the bullpen deep.

That didn't happen last season, at least not too often.

A lot to be worried about. But I am a worrier. Stick with Happy Will and everything will not be lost.

Here's a random thought that really bothers me.

Why the hell is that movie with Ralph Fiennes called the Constant Gardener? When I hear that title I just assume it's a movie about someone who is constantly working in their garden. Can't say that excites me.

In Fight Club, we watch a movie about a fight club (makes sense) and in Wayne's World, we watch a movie about a show called Waynes World (also makes sense). But no, no, no. The Constant Gardener turns out to be a movie "exposing politcal corruption in Africa." How bout a title like "The Corruptor" or " An Inconvenient Truth About Politics in Africa"?

Either titls probably would have been enough to get me to check out the flick. Apparently it is a great movie, too. But due to the arrogance of whoever gave it such a dumb name, I will never see this movie.

Call that the Constant Promise.

VCD,

Sip

(Pics courtest of endscore.com, extremevideostore.com)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: AL East

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, AL Central, and NL Central. Today? We go downtown to the AL East. In expected order of finish ...

The Bronx Bombers
2006 record: 97-65
Peace: LHP Randy Johnson, RHP Cory Lidle (R.I.P.), OF/1B Gary Sheffield, RHP Jaret Wright, OF/DH Bernie Williams, CF Bubba Crosby
What's up?: LHP Kei Igawa, LHP Andy Pettitte, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B Josh Phelps

Half-full: For all the A-Rod and Unit-related griping one heard last year, the team scored 930 runs and gave up 767, which is very good. But obviously, you're not going to see the same type of performances by most of the Yanks again in 2007. By that I mean you can't really expect Robby Cano to hit like Rogers Hornsby again, or count on Chien-Ming Wang or the Moose to post sub-4.00 ERAs like they did last year. You can pencil in DJ to be the best shortstop in the American League again, but you can't expect him to have another "MVP" (hah!) year. That little bitch Posada quietly had another great year, and the Giambino had a much more productive campaign than anyone anticipated -- both of them are due for slippage. So, things are looking grim, right? Not really, mostly because the Bombers are likely to make up quite a bit of ground in the areas where injuries killed them last season. With Matsui and the Iron Sheff out, having to give ol' Bernie 427 at-bats last year was a drag on the offense. This year, Matsui (who had, of course, never missed a game before that) and a presumably improved Melky Cabrera will soak up all those plate appearances that went to Bernie, Bubba Crosby and Aaron Guiel. Bobby Abreu looked rejuvented in the Bronx, and Traitor Johnny played better a lot better than we thought he would. The offense will be there. And again, while the Yanks might not have an ace to boast of (at least until the Rocket walks through the door, goddamn it), you can count on some combination of the Jesus Freak, the Money Pit and the new Jap to be more productive than was the likes of Shawn Chacon, Aaron Small, Lidle, etc. I figure it all balances out, and they stay about the same, which is better than everyone else in the division can manage.

Half-empty: Wang's out for a while, making the Money Pit the Opening Day starter. While utterly hilarious, I'm trying not to overreact and predict utter doom. I don't think Igawa's going to do shit, which won't necessarily be a killer blow, but will certainly drag down the back of the rotation in an all-too-familiar manner. First base is a potential problem area, given that Phelps washed out with the D-Rays and Minky, um, sucks. The rotation is old and injury-prone, and the bullpen is apparently going to be Mo and Krazy Kyle again, which seems like a recipe for disaster. I'm not counting Scott Proctor, whose arm is due to fly into the dugout seats any second now. There's a hell of a souvenir for the Guiliani kid to take back to his golf team. Maybe we'll finally get a chance to see the Human Land Mass, Colter Bean, pitch in the bigs for more than a moment.

Guide to hating: If you needed to be told how to hate the Yankees, you wouldn't be at this site, now would you? (That was a compliment. Enjoy it.) All the same, it looks from here as if the Yanks will have two clear-cut good dudes on the roster (Minky and Tank Pratt), three allegedly good dudes (Proctor, Rivera and Mike Myers), two closet douchebags (Posada and Mussina), three out-and-out lunatics (Pettitte, Farnsworth, Luis Vizcaino), four "Scum of the Earth" nominees (Giambi, Jeter, Pavano, Damon), a couple of head cases (A-Rod, Abreu), two inscrutable Asians (Wang, Igawa) and a quotient of young punks who think the world owes them something (Cano, Cabrera, Phillips.) Not a lot of winners thurr, and plenty to follow over the course of the season.

Additional reading: Steve Goldman

The Boston Red Sox
2006 record: 86-76
Peace: SS Alex Gonzalez, 2B Mark Loretta
What's up?: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, SS Julio Lugo, OF J.D. Drew, RHP Brendan Donnelly, RHP Joel Piniero

Half-full: Well, at full strength, they're better than the Yankees. The positive case is actually very exciting -- on offense, Jason Varitek rebounds, and Coco Crisp and Lugo in 2005 form become a great speed tandem. Manny and Papi do their thing, Drew is effective for 135 games, Mike Lowell stays on track, Eric Hinske slugs .475 in a utility role, Wily Mo Pena hits a couple of home runs to Providence, etc. A rotation featuring healthy Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, plus Matsuzaka and whoever the fifth starter happens to be (Julian Tavarez, Jon "Blow Me, Cancer" Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Matt Clement should he happen to piece himself back together) is frankly outstanding. Papelbon is moving back to the closer's role, where he had some success last year, and there's at least a couple of live bodies behind him this time in Donnelly, J.C. Romero and such. There's a goodly amount of talent, and a decent amount of depth. It's a team with a better-than-average chance of getting to the playoffs.

Half-empty: Of course, that's not the same thing as "likely," now is it? You've got some older folks like Schilling and Tek playing with some folks like Coco and Lugo who just weren't good at all last year, plus the uncertainty surrounding Dice-K and Beckett, plus hoping that Lowell and Kevin Youkilis don't get any worse, plus hoping the bullpen actually comes together. The positive prediction for Drew makes him into a superstar; the widely-predicted alternative is that the Boston media sends him into a total thermonuclear meltdown such that babies born in Andover 50 years from now wake up with Hulk-like superpowers. ("Oh, thank you so much Dr. Banner!") That doesn't seem likely to me, but the fact that dozens of folks are confidently predicting his complete demise makes the best-case scenario seem that much more unlikely. The solid bench makes for a good hedge against any individual failure, but there's a lot of moving parts there, and in a divisional race where there's seldom much room for error, each little failure begets another.

Guide to hating: I don't have the slightest clue why anyone thinks putting Tavarez in the rotation makes sense, but if he sticks there, at least we'll be able to confidently predict when this sociopath will show up on our television sets. With Julian in the 'pen, you never knew when Francona was going to call for him and you'd have to start hissing at your screen. It was slightly nerve-racking. Given what happened with Brett Myers in Boston last year, inviting the wife-beating Lugo to town tempts karma a bit too much for my taste. I'd watch out for falling bricks on that one. Hating on Manny is pretty passe, but feel free if you must, or at the very least keep tuned into whatever Murray Chass is writing. There's a guy who feels you. On the flip side, Papelbon is basically D-Wright with a bit more pudge and a bit less style, neither of which are hanging offenses. In a perfect world, they become friends and eventually meet each other regularly to talk shop and eat ice cream.

Additional reading: Curt Schilling (yep)

The Toronto Blue Jays
2006 record: 87-75
Peace: OF Frank Catalanotto, C Bengie Molina, LHP Ted Lilly
What's up?: DH Frank Thomas, C/1B Jason Phillips, RHP Justin Speier

Half-full: Signing Troy Glaus last year worked out very well, actually. On paper, they've got two studs at the front of the rotation in Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, who was highly decent (1.30 WHIP, 3.98 ERA, 118K in 136 IP) after coming back from injury. People that know more about this shit say his much-maligned mechanics finally looked as if they'd been straightened out, so that's something to be positive about. The offense should be boosted by the addition of Thomas and a full-season of Alexis Rios, who was tearing the cover off the ball until he got hurt last year. B.J. Ryan is a bonafide killer in the bullpen, and Vernon Wells is Beltran-lite in center field. But ...

Half-empty: ...they get murdered up the middle, with a scheduled double-play combination of 2B Aaron Hill (.291/.349/.386) and SS Royce Clayton (.235/.290/.329, in Cincy!), and the back end of their rotation is highly suspect. Lilly gave them nearly 200 innings of 4.31 ERA pitching last year, and they're counting on Gustavo Chacin, Tomo Okha and the battered John Thomson to get something approximating that done. I don't see it happening, and the backup plan is Josh Towers' 8.42 ERA in 12 starts. Matt Stairs is around to back up Rios and Reed Johnson (who hit .319/.390/.479 in about three-quarters of a season, and won't do that again) in the corner outfield slots, which is a good idea offensively and a hideous one defensively. Any time he DHes puts Thomas on the bench. Gregg Zaun will be fine as a full-time catcher. The problem is, it's a team without much upside, and what they do have innint enough to top the Yanks or Sox.

Guide to hating: The coaching staff, led by the Ultimate Fighting Championship's No. 1 contender John Gibbons (watch your back, Randy Couture), is obviously the main target here. What a maroon. As A.F.O.M.G. has indicated on occasion, I'm a big Frank Thomas guy, and I'll be rooting for him to succeed up in the Great White North. All of you should follow my lead on this. As for the rest of the team, I'd recommend taking a long, hard look at first baseman Lyle Overbay, who has always seemed pretty mouthy for a first baseman who doesn't hit home runs.

Additional reading: Batter's Box

The Tampa Devil Rays
2006 record: 61-101
Peace: Um, nobody
What's up?: 3B Akinori Iwamura

Half-full: They've got young position players coming out the tookus, not least of which is the projected super-stud outfield of Delmon Young in right, Rocco Baldelli in center and Carl Crawford in left. They're apparently going to use B.J. Upton as a Figginsesque super-utility type, which seems precisely correct. If he don't work out, there's 2006 draftee and desperate 3B prospect Evan Longoria to think about (he may move to 2B, where his bat would be even more impressive), and behind him, you've got Carl Everett clone Elijah Dukes moving up through the system. Joel Guzman, all of 21, may get a look at 1B. The pitching situation is obviously quite a bit more grim once you get past Kazmir, but the best-case scenario is that guys like Jae Seo and Casey Fossum don't KILL you over the first half of the season until prospects like Andrew Sonnastine and Jeff Niemann get called up to anchor the back end of the rotation. The bullpen resembles "The Hills Have Eyes 2," but that's to be expected when you've put no effort into doing something about it. By the time the team is ready to compete, the front office presumably will.

Half-empty: It's the Rays, so feel free to use your imagination here. Young, Dukes and Upton are all head cases, and everyone else is still getting carded at the local malt shoppe. What could go wrong? Everything imaginable. Dukes could show up on "To Catch a Predator;" Young could get tagged with having killed the Pakistani cricket coach. Kazmir could get hurt and never pitch again (stop smiling, Steve Phillips). But expectations are so low that there's really no further to sink here. If more losing is the prescription, then hell, we'll do this again next year.

Guide to hating: All hail Wiggy! At least now that he's on another team, that is. The perfect place for him, as sad as that is. There's a healthy smattering of spoiled brats on the team, but they're at least having the good sense to do their dirt in an intriguingly crazy way. As Chris Rock said, the only exciting relationships are bad ones. "Hey, you gave me crabs! That's exciting! I wonder what tomorrow's gonna bring." The next team we'll look at, for example, is awful in the most prosaic way possible, which is about as fun as a regularly scheduled colonoscopy. (To quote Rock's former pal Chris Farley, "I know from experience." Never mind.)

Additional reading: Rays of Light

The Baltimore Orioles
2006 record: 70-92
Peace: RHP LaTroy Hawkins, RHP Russ Ortiz, RHP Rodrigo Lopes
What's up?: OF Jay Payton, RHP Jaret Wright, DH Aubrey Huff, RHP Steve Trashel

Half-full: They also have three overpaid relievers coming in: Danny Baez, Jamie Walker, and former Met groundhog-killer Chad Bradford, each of whom should be better than completely awful, but there's really no guarantees there. One's a LOOGY, the other's a ROOGY; they're puzzle pieces, not building blocks. Otherwise, they've returned their solid up-the-middle infield in Ramon Hernandez, Miggy Tejada and Brian Roberts; if you can get a leadoff man and two power hitters out of those spots, you're ahead of the game. Nick Markakis could turn into Grady Sizemore-lite in right field, or maybe more of a Dwight Evans type, and that's not a bad thing. They've got a handful of interesting young arms.

Half-empty: Fuck these utterly uninteresting cowards. This team blows. Every single player in the starting lineup save Markakis is in obvious decline, unless you're going to hop on the ever-precarious Corey Patterson bandwagon. I love Miggy's attitude and bat, but he's going to stop playing with that same passion one of these days. Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, Huff, the retarded signing of Jay Payton -- ladies and gentlemen, it's the 2003 All-Stars! How very like the Orioles. Then there's the rotation, which will be without noted ladies man Kris Benson for a while. I am not -- repeat, NOT -- a believer in No. 1 starter Erik Bedard, solid 2006 or not, and after that, things get very shaky very fast. Adam Loewen looks like a lefty A.J. Burnett circa 2000 -- very promising in a haphazard sort of way, but not especially good yet. We may have to accept that Daniel Cabrera is never going to solve his control problems. I think he was the one who put a baseball through my window last night. Then we get to the fun part in the back of the sack, in Jaret Wright and our man Steve Trashel; to put it plainly, these aren't really the guys you want to throw up there against the Yanks and Red Sox of the world.

Guide to hating: Stevie T., you're on the clock. You too, Jay, A.F.O.M.G.'s concerns notwithstanding. I happen to have a thing against corner outfielders who don't do anything particularly well, including defense. You're a very nice backup, and an awful everyday player. You sure found the right team, huh? Speaking of which, it's going to be Year Two of the Maryland Mazzone Era, and it's high time we started seeing some of that famed Pitching Coach Pixie Dust we all heard about ad nauseum for the better part of a decade. Leo, it's not like you're dealing with a bunch of nobodies this season. Your idiot owner went out and got you some parts to make a bullpen out of, and there's three or four dynamite young arms in the system, each in their early or mid-20s. They're impressionable and waiting for your healing touch. Besides, some results would go nicely with that smirk, fella.

Additional reading: Camden Chat

Predictions: Yankees 93-69, Red Sox 93-69, Blue Jays 88-76, Devil Rays 74-88, Orioles 68-94

So Close...

We are so close I can smell it.

Six days and counting until we kick off the 2007 campaign. We will travel to the home of the birdies that snatched away our 2006 and crushed a few bloggers' dreams of covering a Mets World Series.

I have such vivid memories of Game 5 in St. Louis, sitting four rows behind our boys with my second big bro. There is no worse feeling than rooting for a team on the road and losing. You have no support system. All you can do is grow angry internally.

With the final 4 field set, and 92% of our readers having the final 4 correct -- a hardy 2 out of 4 for the Sip, not too shabby -- all we must do now is get through the week.

For me, I am shaking at the thought at returning to the city where I was born and raised, hitting up Shea with the fellas and returning to my happy place.

Watching Thru The Fire, the Sebastian Telfair documentary, this past weekend, for what is probably the 13th time this month -- it's that unbelievable -- I realized maybe the greatest quote that I have ever heard. It may seem irrelevant now, but you'll see.

On the bus to the McDonald's All-American game, Telfair sat in a seat, flat brim hat cocked to the side yelling at all his teammates.

"If you ain't from New York, you a country boy."

The one response he got was from now Celtics center Al Jefferson, from rural Mississippi:

"I got people's in Jersey so I ain't no country boy."

As I have embarked on my many travels during my swinging 20's I have experienced a lot of different places. San Francisco, maybe the country's most peaceful city. Los Angeles, where everyone has really nice cars and cares way too much about the entertainment business. And then there were my ventures through the South that got me here.

Through all my adventures I have come up with one incontrovertible fact. There is no place like New York City.

My love/hate relationship with the city that I grew up in is undeniable, but my pride to call New York City my hometown is tremendous. As New Yorkers, we are a step sharper. We think more about things and are constantly on our toes. We walk to delis and live off the convenience of having everything we want at the drop of coin. We live in a city where on every block you can see people of all different races from all over the world.

There really is nothing like it.

I grew up in the same city as Sebastain Telfair. There aren't too many people like me that can say they grew up in a city so diverse and so rich with so many different cultures as New York City. And so I love her.

And as much as I love her,I love even more people from New York who are Mets fans.

If New York is my city, the Mets are one of a very few small group that really help define my place in that city.

I watch Mets games, wear the clothing, read about the team, write (rant) about the team, and talk to my friends and family about the team.

The Mets are as much Sippy Momo as the deli on my block, the chicken wing place by my house or the people of my neighborhood.

For almost 25 years they have defined my existence as a New Yorker.

Which is why I am smiling right now. For 6 months of every year I have an activity that I get to share with my best friends for three hours a day. To me, there aren't too many things better in life.

Can't wait to get home. For those headed to Shea two weeks from today, give me or AFOMG a shout. Would love to meet you all.

Vaya con dios,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of prosportpictures.com, boston.com, tripod.com)

Billy Benitez?

I've been toying around with a troubling thought today, one which I first expressed on MetsGeek. I've been thinking about Billy Wagner.

I remember when Wagner arrived at spring training last year he was quick to let people know that he was a lousy spring training performer, traditionally. The idea was that people shouldn't read too much into it if he came into camp and struggled -- not to worry, the message was, it's like this every year and my resume speaks for itself.

Wagner went on to have a fine season in 2006, collecting 40 saves against 5 blown saves and compiling a 2.24 ERA along the way.

All of which is to say that when I see that Wagner allowed 5 earned runs yesterday, I don't sweat it too much.

What I do find myself wondering, however, is whether Wagner hasn't boxed himself into a corner as regards his spring training performance, mentally speaking. What I mean is, he knows he's traditionally been a poor performer in Spring Training, he talks about it openly, and then he goes out there and performs poorly in Spring Training -- it sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If it were just a matter of Spring Training performance I wouldn't worry -- I'm a big believer that Spring Training means nothing for established guys like Wagner means nothing.

Psychological hurdles that players set for themselves mean something though, and I wonder whether Wagner doesn't have something of a psychological hurdle when it comes to the postseason.

I mean, the guy is acutely aware that he's a poor Spring Training performer, can you honestly tell me that he's not aware that he's a poor postseason performer? If he is, does it ever become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

All Mets fans remember the pain that was Armando Benitez. Dynamite closer in low pressure situations, deer in headlights when the heat was on. When Benitez came into playoff situations you basically knew the Mets were doomed. Now ask yourself, honestly, how did you feel about Wagner by the end of the postseason?

For Mets fans it's only been one playoff experience, but for Wagner it's been several. 9.00 playoff ERA in 1997. 18.00 ERA in 1998. 5.40 ERA in 2001. 16.88 ERA in the NLCS last year with the Mets.

The misery index presented above ignores his 0.00 ERA in 1999 as well as the 3.00 he put up against the Dodgers in the NLDS, but even those stats don't change the bottom line: for his career, Wagner has been a lousy postseason relief pitcher. End of story.

My worry is that Wagner knows that better than anybody else. If he does, and if he internalizes it the way he seems to have internalized his poor spring training record, he may have established a psychological hurdle that means more than nothing. One that means quite a lot, actually.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of sportsnetwork.com and sportsillustrated.com)

Stay in Texas

A quick apology for the late posts this week. We've been having some problems with our technology, which, to be honest, I don't know a fucking thing about.

See, we here Y2K, we don't miss posts. Some 18 months later and we are feeling better than ever, and for good reason.

We got past year 1 of The Curse. It would have killed me would if the Yankees had won the world series the year after we created a website announcing a curse barring them from doing so. The only thing that would have been better, a Yankee loss and a Mets win.

As we enter year 2 of this site and year 7 of the Yankees curse for ruining the purity baseball, one and only one thing stands in the way from a Sippy Momo guarantee that the Yankees will make it through 2007, ringless.

That one thing is a "potentially steroid pumping" fireballer from Texas who is commanding $4 million dollars to play the game that a certain left handed billionare would play for free.

Without Roger Clemens, the Yankees pitching just won't be there. With a weak bullpen before an aging/less dominant Mariano Rivera, the Yankees will rely heavily on the arms of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite and Chien Ming Wang.

In Wang, the Yankees have their best bet. He pounds the strikezone with a mid 90's sinker and fresh off a very impressive 2006 campaign appears ready to follow up in 2007 with another impressive showing.

But what happens when the rusting Mussina and Pettite hurt themselves or show wear or slow down or do whatever it is that all pitchers north of 35 do? (PLEASE NOT TOM GLAVINE)

The Yankees would then rest their hopes in a 21 year old kid, Phil Hughes, an overpaid crappy Japanese pitcher (Kei Igawa) or a guy who hasn't pitched in two years that has really only pitched one good season in his career (Carl Pavano).

Without Clemens, the Yankees might not make it to October. Not after losing Sheffield from the lineup and watching the Red Sox and Blue Jays continue to improve in the offseason.

But with Clemens... well, we might be changing the name of this site to Yankees2007.killme.org.

Add Clemens to a rotation and you get a power arm who will be fresh in September and October and push back Mussina and Pettite to 3 and 4, respectively, in a short series. The Yankees rotation goes from solid to scary and all of a sudden, the Yankees are the team to beat.

Brian Cashmen has done everything in his power to De-Yankee this Yankee team and make them the new Cashman Yankees. The team has the most money but spends it wisely. The team develops talent as opposed to stealing it.

But what happens come May 15th when the Yankees are 3 games back of the Red Sox and tied with the Blue Jays?

The back page of the Post runs a picture of Clemens in a Yankee uniform every day, which bothers me, but destroys my father who uses the Post as an escape on his train ride to work. Bother me, that is one thing. But mess with Senior and we have a problem.

The best thing that can happen to Yankee haters this season is for the weather in Texas to be nice enough that Roger Clemens decides to stick around.

Nothing to me would be sweeter than a Mets victory in October. But that will not come too easily. These Mets will need a ton of good fortune to make it back to October and even more to get to the Fall Classic.

Which is why it is always nice to have secondary interests. For me they are threefold.

1. A big year out of Y2K legend and close pal Eric Byrnes.
2. A resurgence at the Jake from our beloved Tribesmen.
3. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez talking wine and cheese over a sleepover in early October watching the Mets on Fox and the AL playoffs unfold before their eyes.

VCD,

Sip

Dancing, Dancing, Dancing!

Like most people in America, my bracket is in pretty decent shape. Nothing too funky went down last weekend in the NCAA's. Wisco lost, but not too many folks had them beating Florida.

Then, for all you people out there on the Kevin Durant bandwagon out there, a lot of you saw your hopes crushed by a USC team filled with sweet shooters and dudes who look like Nick Cannon.

So last Thursday I am sitting with two members of my gambling crew at the Sportsbook in Caesar's. I went down to Vegas just because I wanted a sense of the atmosphere come tourney time. I left my ATM card at home and put a couple of hundred dollars in my back pocket. This was business not pleasure.

Of my "crew" 8 of us decided to do a $100 winner take all. I know it's steep, but these are good friends, which means win or lose, no one is seeing that money for about 6 months.

(Side note: I think the biggest short coming of our generation is the inability to put things in the mail. I don't think I have ever had a stamp and an envelope at the same time and I don't know to0 many 20-somethings that do.)

Anyway, it was me Coach, and J Schubes having a few 9 a.m. cocktails to get the tourney started right. (Hey pops, mine was a virgin.) A couple of legends in the Momo circle and we were all excited for the "Madness" to begin.

Coach: Who's your final 4?
ME: I have Florida beating A&M with G-Town and Kansas
Schubes: Wait, seriously. FUCK! Me too.
Coach: You gotta be shitting me. Me three.
Schubes: I thought I was being clever
Coach: You know that's the Sports Guy's final 4 too.
ME: Kill me!!!

Three dudes in a pool of 8 people and we all had the same final 4 and finals. We all watch our fair share of college basketball and I guess we all talk to each other about it a lot. But seriously?

Knowing that my entire bracket rested on the fist three rounds of the tourney, I geared up.

The result: I think I had less games right than every single woman in the world.

Yeah, I know it's a pretty cliched joke, but what is it about women and office pools? Why are they so damn good at them? What's next? (The Old Sip would insert a sexist joke right here, but no more. Coop, you have changed my perspective on your team sex).

Tonight begins the round of 16 and most of my picks are of course identicial to Coach and Schubes.

Which means that one game and one game only will determine if I have a chance to win my bracket, even if I hit my entire final 4, finals and winner.

North Carolina vs. USC

Having developed a slight man crush on Kevin Durant over the course of this season, I was pretty confident that Texas would not make a run. Durant is the greatest 1 on 1 player in the history of the college game and if you think he is amazing in college, wait till he gets to the pros, adds 30 lbs and plays in a style catered to 1 on 1 play.

I'll say it. Durant should go #1

But I had Texas losing to USC. The Pac-10 was the best conference in the country all year and SC has three guards that can play and some athletes. When they are hitting their shots, they can play with anyone... so let's hit those shots boys.

Nick Young will be a lottery pick come June after he carries the Trojans to the Final 4. You heard it hear first and you will hear the first denial of this statement on Monday morning.

Because it's the tourney and its fun to pick a few upsets, I took USC to beat UNC in my bracket. At the time I didn't think much of it. Now I know this will determine whether or not my bracket is still alive on Saturday morning.

UNC to me is the most up and down team in the tourney. The reason is simple. Tyler Hansborough can disappear from games.

Without a dominant three point arsenal, especially with Ty Lawson now seeing more minutes, the Tar Heels depend on balance, depth and athleticism to win games. Most times this works. But on the nights when they are not hitting their shots, and Hansborough isn't bullying the paint, the Tar Heels are extremely vulnerable.

They showed it twice against Va Tech. They look awful against Gonzaga. And god willing, with the support of this community, they will lose again Friday night. Yes, AND I will bring you your 23rd district title. Go Pack! Go Pack!

PS:Word on the street is Rayshaun Terry has strep. That helps.

Otherwise, though, not a lot has changed. This tourney is so up and down. To pick winners is to be female, so most likely you should just fade the Sip.

But there you have it. Give me a Florida/ A&M final and give me a USC win Friday night and the first round of beers are on me, April 9th at Shea.

With that in mind, anyone have any tickets for me and the big fella?

PLEASE?!

Vaya con dios,
Sip

Pic courtesy of (Bodog.com, collegepublisher.com)

Spring Training Wheels

A question I've been playing around with the last couple days: In the year ahead, is it even possible that the Mets could be as good as they were a year ago?

In order to answer that question, let me clarify a little: I'm not asking whether the Mets can run away with the division like they did last year. The formula that led to last year's cake-walk took two (or five) to tango. The Mets were great and everyone else shat the bed.

We can't count on the latter in 2007. I think we've all realized by now that the Phillies are the it-team in the National League. They're the ones everybody's talking about, the ones who keep on chirping about how they're the best the NL East has to offer.

Apart from the Phillies, there's some concern out there about a resurgent Braves club in the year ahead. The Marlins should be decent again. The Nationals will get annihilated, yes, but the rest of the field looks improved.

What about the Mets? It's a funny thing with the Mets -- a lot of people are worried about our starting pitching, but for all the thought they devote to how shaky our rotation is, rarely do they mention that it was similarly shaky last season.

It's certainly worth noting that a HUGE benefit to the 2006 campaign was that Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine basically dominated in the early part of the season. Pedro's started 5-0, Glavine went a ridiculous 11-2 -- it all helped conceal the fact that the rest of the rotation was breaking down all around them.

This is a team that relied on Jose Lima, Geremi Gonzalez, Alay Soler and Victor Zambrano for various lengths of time last year; could John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey possibly be worse?

I'm fairly certain they couldn't be. Well that's not true, Perez could be. I'm pretty long on Perez but he's actually been worse than each of those guys, except for Lima, for statistically significant periods of time.

As for the bullpen, I'm pretty confident we've got enough pieces there to have similar success this coming year compared with what we had last year.

What about the lineup? The lineup's interesting. On the one hand, the lineup should be better off given the addition of Moises Alou. Alou should help against lefties and is a virtual lock to provide more production than Cliff Floyd (RIP) offered last year. So the lineup should be better in that regard.

On the other hand you've got a lot of guys who had extremely good seasons last year -- those players being Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Valentin. I don't think any of us expect as-good seasons from Valentin or Lo Duca -- what about the rest of the field?

I don't expect worse seasons from Reyes, Beltran, Wright or Delgado, but it could happen. Beltran had the finest season of his career year last year; Reyes was a .246 hitter through June 11; Wright has shown a troubling inability to hit for power since the Home Run Derby; Delgado is coming off surgery.

Don't get me wrong, I expect Beltran to have a similar season to the one he had last year, I expect more consistent seasons from Wright and Delgado (who nevertheless had fantastic seasons last year), and I expect Reyes to become a legitimate MVP candidate. Will it all happen? Well, it's not written, but the lineup should be stacked one way or another.

I mention all of this because I think some Mets fans have lost sight of the genuinely significant information that's available. Everybody's obsessing about the dismal spring training record. God knows I'm not happy about it, but in all of the discussion has anybody once mentioned that the Phillies are 7-13?

I remember how closely I followed Spring Training when I was young. There was one year there in the bleak early 90s when the Mets had a fantastic spring training and I was convinced the team was going all the way. Didn't happen. Why not? Because spring training is basically meaningless.

Players and teams use training wheels throughout the spring, trying to figure out what this pitch can do, or what this lineup configuration might look like. A lot of it is trial and error. Do you like to see players perform well? Of course. For established guys who will make the team one way ora nother does it really have any bearing? Not that anyone's ever been able to determine.

So the next time somebody corners you and starts worrying about how badly the Mets are doing right now, remind yourself that this team is very similar to the one we rolled out a year ago, the one that was the best team in the National League.

The rest of the field has caught up a little bit, but I'd be stunned if they'd made enough progress to close the gap on the defending NL East champions. Next year is now, son.

- A.F.O.M.G.

A St. Patrick's Day Miracle

What's up everyone? No previews from ol' Cheddar today. We're going to push the final two back to next week, when everything's a week closer to fruition, and that sick need for baseball knowledge is even more pronounced. Always thinking of you, folks.

Since I'm still playing a little bit of catch-up after turning in my Master's Project yesterday (and losing an entire 24 hours in a haze of not-sleep and coffeee), I hope everybody's St. Patrick's Day was interesting. It was, ironically, a particularly poor afternoon for the Irish; specficially, their national rugby team got hosed in the last minute of an important international tournament. It was the Six Nations, an annual round-robin tourney between England, Wales, Scotland, France, Ireland and those smarmy bastards in Italy.

It's the Northern Hemisphere equivalent to the Tri-Nations tournament played between South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. (There is, in case you didn't know, a lot of hemispheric pride floating around in rugby. Bizarre.)

Ireland had been kicking ass all along, and they went into the final day of the tournament knowing they would probably beat up on the Italians. At the same time, they knew the French (their rivals for the title) were also going to crush the Scots, and the title would come down to overall points difference. But Ireland was scheduled to play first, so they wouldn't know how many points they would need to score to win; France would.

So, the inevitable happened. Ireland busted up Italy 51-24, giving themselves a nice little cushion, only to see France come back with a 46-19 result over the roll-over Scots. The crushing blow was a try in the very last minute of the game that went upstairs to the television official -- like in hockey, if they're not sure of whether the ball was touched down in the scoring zone, they send it to the cameras.

An the official, a traitorous Irishman named Simon McDowell, awarded the try and the tournament to Sarkozy and Co. Their reaction was typical. "How like life, eh? They fucked up, we give it to them."

In other St. Patrick's Day news, our boy Kid Slick was doing some shopping up in the Bronx near his middle school in one of those discount hat joints. You know the type -- New Eras half-off, this stuff is almost certainly stolen. He's looking for some festive, green hatwear, and he comes across a whole row of green, St. Patrick's Day Mets jersey shirts, and he's pumped.

So, he goes up to the guy working the counter, and asks, "Do you guys have a Reyes shirt in green?" And the guy looks at him like he's a moron. So, Kid goes back to the rack, and finally realizes that every single shirt is a David Wright shirt, every single one. The implication being about as clear as can be. He had a laugh at that, and then walked out of the store. (He may have bought something first).

Anyway, I'll be back on the horse here soon enough. Keep checking out the previews and getting ready for the season. A new future awaits us!

A Hearty Comparison

The first four days of the NCAA tournament have come and gone and all I can say is that I am exhausted. It's like 4 days of New Year's Eve for the Sip. Games all day and the demons that come with. And after 2 rounds, my bracket remains pretty much intact, so that is a good thing.

Let me tell you something that ain't so good. The 6-14 New York Mets.

Not the best spring by any measurement, but at least we aren't the 2-16 D-Rays. The panic button might light up in my living room with all this losing mumbo jumbo, but when I took a moment to reflect on the early spring I realized that the New Mets are almost a direct parallel to one of the greatest teams in the history of the game.

Our leadoff hitter got jacked up this winter and is flat out killing the ball.

We lost our star veteran pitcher and are now trying to make up for it.

Our star hearthrob over at 3B got a big new contract and has gotten a little classier over the winter.

Our big guys in the middle of the lineup, Delgado and Beltran, are lying in the weeds.

Our kid, young Lastings is offering up a new image, getting his grown man on. Could he be reading playboys in the clubhouse too?

Does this all sound familiar to any of you guys? Are you seeing the parallels? Well ladies and gentlemen, here they are... your 1994 Cleveland Indians from the hit smash, Major League II.

The comparisons beteween Reyes and Willie Mays Hayes at the top of the lineup are undeniable. They are both coming off a breakout year and are both clobbering the ball in the spring.

Pedro is gone. Harris is gone.

David Wright is now a big shot playboy. Rick Vaughn's back with a cleaned up image.

Pedro Cerrano struggled through the Spring as he tried to cope with adjustments to life as a Buddhist.

Carlos Delgado is worried about the birth of his child that should happen sometime in the next couple of weeks.

Lastings Milledge is back and smiling and winning all of our hearts back. Rube Baker simply had us from the beginning.

The Tribe jumped out to a blistering 3-18 spring back in 1994 only to bounce back and beat the Chicago White Sox to make it to the World Series. With the insane similarities between our team and them, I can't imagine that anything will be any different in this upcoming season for the Mets.

My only concern. Can our boys get past the Wahoos of Cleveland?

VCD,

Sip

P.S. Definitely saw a 5-foot-4 Bill Maher crash a party I was at on Saturday night with what appeared to be a pair of ethnic prostitutes. Interesting stuff.

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL Central

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, and AL Central. Today? The crapshoot in the NL Central. In expected order of finish ...

The Milwaukee Brewers
2006 record: 75-87
Peace: LHP Doug Davis
What's up?: C Johnny Estrada, RHP Jeff Suppan

Half-full: Oh shoot. Look, every team in this division sucks in its own, special way. Especially the free-spending Cubs. I don't see any particular reason for any team in this division to win more than 85 games or so; that could be enough, seeing as how St. Louis took the crown, then the pennant and the World Series trophy last year with a mere 83 wins. So, putting the Brew Crew in the pole position is just another way of saying that I expect everyone else in this cracked-out circuit to remain just as incontinent as they were in 2006. Let's just get that out of the way. For Milwaukee, a good chunk of their young guys were hurt for much of last season, leading to way too much playing time for schlubs like Zach Jackson and David Bell. They'll move Bill Hall to center this year to make way for either Ryan Braun or Tony Graffanino at 3B (hope for the former), and healthy seasons from the rest of the young infield are the only way they'll compete. Corey Hart is waiting for a breakout season in right, and if Kevin Mench can get off his high horse and agree to be platooned with Geoff Jenkins in left field, Milwaukee will have itself an extremely productive lineup.

Half-empty: Ben Sheets, we're going to need you to stay healthy. He pitched 237 innings during his nasty 2004 year (0.98 WHIP, 2.70 ERA, 264 K, in case you didn't remember), and has since gone for 157 and 106 over the past two seasons, albeit without seeing his productivity really slip while on the mound. You want to say you can get him back in the rotation for good, but then again, you also want to see "American Idol"'s TV ratings start to plummet. Hasn't happened yet. Aside from the general threat of injury, there's also the risk that Suppan returns to pre-2006 form and the team's top free agent winds up screwing over the team entirely. The risk level of this can be described as "high." I think Prince Fielder ends up pulling a Ryan Howard this year, but with a guy his size, the downside is always either the Mo Vaughn Worst-Case Scenario or falling through the rotted-out floorboards of an old building, a la Bam Bam Bigelow in the famous ECW pay-per-view match against Taz where they both went through the bottom of the ring. Anybody have any idea what I'm talking about? No? Anyway, Mo had his MVP years before it got to the end, so look out for Prince.

Guide to hating: I don't have much to go with here aside from Suppan, who I'm hoping beyond hope has a secret allergy to processed meat products that will result in a slow, prolonged poisoning episode. Exposure to Polish Sausage-210, if you will. That'll learn him. Starting pitcher Chris Capuano is a personal favorite, but the better they dump Mench, the better.

Additional reading: The Brew Site

The Chicago Cubs
2006 record: 68-94
Peace: CF Juan Pierre, RHP Jerome Williams
What's up?: OF Alfonso Soriano, LHP Ted Lilly, RHP Jason Marquis, LF Spliff Floyd, 2B Mark DeRosa

Half-full: Look at their 2006 record -- half-full is not being the most expensive failure of all time. (Insert "Waterworld" joke here. Gills!) But rest assured that this prediction assumes a full season from Derrek Lee, who'll split the difference between his 2004 and '05 production if healthy, and SOME contributions from Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whether in the bullpen or in a few starts here and there. If that doesn't happen, then all the Tribune money their bed-ridden GM spent in the off-season will be good for nothing better than a bonus for the contract-writing team. Spending all winter locked in that office with their typewriters and green visors on ... cut them a check, Trib. Y2K's proclamations on Soriano might well be taken with a grain of salt after last year's crowing following the Nats-Rangers trade, but he's going to have to play like he did last year in D.C. if the Cubs are going to go anywhere. Marquis and Lilly will have to be better than mediocre. (Which they've, um, never done.) There's obviously plenty of name talent on the roster, but that won't get you far.

Half-empty: The Dusty Baker-inspired offense problems still apply, though they will be muted by Lee's return. Spliff's been known to take a walk, but you don't know how much he'll play or how effective he'll be. R.I.P. Otherwise, you signed two guys who could be OBP sinkholes (Soriano and DeRosa) and gave a third one also known as a slacking headcase an $80 mil. extension that may or may not cause him to go on the Prince Fielder diet (Aramis Ramirez). The worst-case scenario is all these guys post OBPs in the .330-.340 range (hardly outside the realm of possibility), and the lineup turns into the Angels' with slightly more power and boatloads less potential. The pitching staff's problems have been covered in too many places to bear repeating, but it remains a work in progress. A crappy work. "The Black Donnellys" in progress.

Guide to hating: Some of this depends on whether or not you're rooting for guys like Prior and Wood to finally make it back and re-establish themselves as stars, or at least get out of the sympathy case file. I'm not. You may be, and if so, best of luck, sucker. I saw someone mention the other day that Prior still has minor-league options left, which might be the funniest thing I've seen in a while. The big shot himself, chilling in Iowa or Omaha, trying to learn how to pitch again. Actually, that's kind of sad, but it's not something to let yourself get all worked up about. Marquis makes me angry in the way that all the former Cardinal pitchers do, and Lilly is your typical former Yankee with an attitude problem; thinks he's better than he is, and wants the world handed to him on a platter. I'm rooting for a rotator cuff collapse. There are good guys around like Rich Hill, Lee and Mike Barrett, who earned all the brownie points in existence for sucker-punching A.J. Pierzynski during the interleague fracas last season, but overall, it's an extremely dislikable team. With Spliff, we'll withhold judgement until we see how this thing with Willie plays out.

Additional reading: Cub Town

The St. Louis Shitbirds
2006 record: 83-78
Peace: Suppan, Marquis, 2B Ronnie Belliard, RHP Jeff Weaver
What's up?: RHP Kip Wells

Half-full: Better lucky than good, congratulations, now go die. In all seriousness, this team wasn't especially good last year, and they're going to be much worse in 2007. I worked hard to whip up a catchy phrase like "Carpenter and Pujols and pray for x," but you'd be surprised how much time you can spend trying to think of a funny x and come up with nothing. "Two holes?" "Fruit bowls?" "Zoo poles?" Nothing going there. So, anyway, their lineup is essentially unchaged from the one that won it all last year, which is a bad thing. You can expect a full season from either Rolen or Edmonds, and not both. Excitingly, Chris Duncan is penciled in right now as the everyday left fielder. If he continues to hit, that could be extremely useful (especially as compared to Encarnacion in the other outfielder corner), but even the best-case scenario with Duncan involves him being among the worst defensive outfielders of all time. He'll make Jeremy Giambi look like Bobby Rayburn out there. The rotation is counting on productive seasons from Mulder (done), Wells (blecch), Anthony Reyes and old friend Adam Wainwright (sucks, and never done it in the majors before), and maybe even juicer Ryan Franklin. This is not a recipe for success.

Half-empty: They're still saying Edmonds won't be ready for Opening Day, which won't help. These days, his back is just a little better off than that hideous guy's from "300." Playoffs notwithstanding, Yadier Molina still can't hit. Neither can Eckstein or Miles, and there's three spots in the lineup that look like wastewater. (See also: Astros, Houston). Encarnacion is an extremely poor man's Derek Bell without the speed (6 SB, 5 CS); but he won't be ready to start the season either, and now we're at four lineup spots where not much is going on. No Edmonds, a fading Rolen feuding with his manager, Swingy the Clown out by the fence in left, and the real MVP at first base ... no repeats here, folks.

Guide to hating: Everyone. Every single one of them. Especially the goy, Eckstein.

Additional reading: The Cardinal Rule

The Houston Astros
2006 record: 82-80
Peace: 1B Jeff Bagwell, RHP Roger Clemens, LHP Andy Pettitte, CF Willy Taveras
What's up?: LF Carlos Lee, RHP Jason Jennings, RHP Woody Williams

Half-full: I desperately wanted to put the Reds here, until I realized their only off-season improvement had been Kyle Lohse. Holy god, that's bad. Not that I think the 'Stros did a whole lot more to help themselves relative to where they want to be, but they're going to wind up being better than Scott Hatteberg and Co., I guess. The middle of the order is ostensibly dangerous with Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott, etc. Oswalt looks like he's in line for another Cy Young campaign, and the decision to extend him was an excellent one.

Half-empty: Getting rid of Taveras wasn't a problem per se, but they don't really have a centerfielder as it stands, which will hurt. Prospect Hunter Pence would be the best solution (PECOTA has him pegged for .279/.340/.490), but he would be taking Chris Burke's job, which won't happen for other reasons. Burke is a natural second baseman, but he's blocked by the decaying carcass of Craig Biggio (.246/.306/.422 last year, and a truly stunning .178/.253/.388 away from the bandbox at Minute Maid), who isn't going anywhere until he gets the 70 hits he needs for 3,000. Neither Burke nor Scott can really hack it every day in center, and you need someone who can, given that on any particular day (when Mike Lamb gets a start at first, for example), he could be stuck playing the gaps in between Lee and Berkman, the Chris Duncans of the South. That's practically enough for an MLBPA grievance right there. The flyball pitchers playing in front of this defense will suffer, and whaddya know, we got four of them right here. Especially Williams, coming over from San Diego; his ERA will get a bit of a bump. The offense has to account for getting nothing from Biggio, Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett, which is well-nigh impossible.

Guide to hating: Lee, obviously. Biggio is a first-ballot HOFer, an utterly unique player in MLB history and a good guy to boot, but at the moment, he's being rather annoying. The Killer Bs didn't go out in style. Oswalt isn't a guy you really hate, but if you have a minute, take a gander at this excellent Buster Olney profile of him from last year. The bottom line is, he's a solid dude, but he's about as hickish as hick gets. That can either be lovable (Wagner) or not (Rocker), but it's a factor to consider when deciding who to yell at while on the barstools. Ausmus, a Harvard guy, is clearly related to the pony-tailed dude from "Good Will Hunting." Hits just like that guy probably would, too.

Additional reading: Sports Justice

The Cincinnati Reds
2006 record: 80-82
Peace: IF Rich Aurelia, SS Royce Clayton, LHP Scott Schoenweis, C Jason LaRue
What's up?: SS Alex Gonzalez (the one that didn't retire ... not the guy who booted the ball for the Cubs, the other one)

Half-full: Just pathetic. If Adam Dunn hits every pitch he sees into Kentucky, the Reds will be in good shape. If gravity and common sense get in the way, they might need to get a little more from other players, which will be a problem. The rotation has the potential to be mediocre, as long as Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang don't regress, but it's not going to be good. The bullpen has the potential to be good, but it's not going to be great, and it would have to be to have much of an effect on the rotation. (Unless you're a big Dave Weathers guy, and if so, godspeed). I like Edwin Encarnacion at 3B, and Brandon Phillips will have every chance to do even better than last year, so there's potential there. But until top-flight prospects Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce are ready to contribute (in 2008, most likely), it's going to be ugly.

Half-empty: Griffey's out to start the year a la Edmonds, which means more Ryan Freel than most (but not all) would like. Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse might give up 80 homers between them, which probably isn't a record, but would be enjoyable nonetheless. Hatteberg had his last good season in '06, and is likely to slip back into awfulness. Dunn is stil salty that his buddy Austin Kearns was traded away, and may not give 100 percent effort ever again in Ohio.

Guide to hating: Got the Griffster, got Dunn (who strikes out 200 times a year), got a bunch of no-names nobody can get worked up about. Arroyo's coolness also papers over plenty of sins, so not much to look at here.

Additional reading: Red Reporter

The Pittsburgh Pirates
2006 record: 67-95
Peace: LHP Mike Williams
What's up?: 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP Tony Armas, Jr.

Half-full: Nope.

Half-empty: They're a Jason Bay injury away from winning less than 50 games. In fact, let's go ahead and predict that. I mean, I like Bay quite a bit (good all-around player, Canadian, says the right things), but this ain't about him. It's about a team with no prospect of going anywhere, ever, about to break the Phillies' record for most consecutive losing seasons in a couple of years. Zach Duke weren't no good last year (1.50 WHIP, 4.47 ERA, 117K in 215 IP) at age 23, and he's their ace. His young teammates are no better, so why bother talking about them? Their batting champ, Freddy Sanchez, just had his career year and it wasn't particularly spectacular (although 53 doubles was fun). Their shortstop, Jack Wilson, hits like Jack Sprat. Their catcher, Ronny Paulino, eats no lean. The X-Man himself, Xavier Nady, can feel free to lick the platter if he wants. We feel for you, boss.

Guide to hating: The front office and ownership.

Additional reading: Bucs Dugout

Predictions: Brewers 85-77, Cubs 82-80, Shitbirds 79-83, Astros 79-83, Reds 74-88, Pirates 20-142

Y2K-U: Tourney Edition

Y2K-U: Tomorrow’s Headlines Today

Welcome to a very special edition of Y2K-U, where we save you the trouble of buying the next three weeks of newspapers. Let’s go to the Future Time Machine, shall we?

Friday, March 16: MONARCHS REIGN as Old Dominion pulls off the mandatory 12-5 upset. I’ve watched some Butler recently, and let me tell you, anyone who can’t beat Wright State in two tries in two weeks may have peaked in November. And looking back, those pre-season NIT wins over Indiana and Gonzaga suddenly don’t seem so impressive. In other news, A&M rolls over Penn. (Sorry, Sip).

Saturday, March 17: IRISH SPRING as Notre Dame leads us into St. Patrick’s Day by dismantling everyone’s favorite Cinderella, Winthrop. I imagine dudes named Carter and Harangody will be key. Elsewhere, Virginia wins its first tourney game in 12 years, Kansas and Florida win by a combined 60, and Memphis very quietly wins its 632^nd game in a row.

Sunday, March 18: AWESOME, BABY!!! Duke defeats Pitt to make its tenth Sweet 16 in a row. Sure, Xavier upsets Grandpa Oden and Ohio State to record the biggest upset of the tournament, but do they have a coach who is also a leader of men? Well, do they? Oh, and UNC won too, which should relegate the Musketeers to C6 under the fold in the Vitale Times.

Monday, March 19: WHEN’S FOOTBALL SEASON? And the Big Ten’s brilliant six teams are all gone, as Georgia Tech drills Wisconsin due to more athleticism. The opponents may change, but Kansas and Florida now win by a total of 51 over Kentucky and Purdue. Tennessee and Virginia look really pretty in HD, and Kevin Durant has 35 and 18 in a win over Southern Cal.

Friday, March 23: HOME COOKIN’: UCLA continues a fantastic path through the state of California – for the second straight year – as the incredible Coach K cannot overcome the fact that Ben Howland is actually a better coach at this point of their careers. The Jayhawks roll on through some boring defensive team, maybe Southern Illinois. Tennessee ends the Xavier run, and Texas A&M takes out Memphis.

Saturday March 24: BEST FRESHMAN EVER, as the Durant Train rolls through the Baby Blue in a 98-96 OT game of the tournament.

Georgetown beats Wazzu in a game with 70 less points. The Gators roll on, as does Georgia Tech, who are tiring of the references to George Mason by this point.

Sunday, March 25: THEY FOUGHT THE LAW, and the Law won; Acie’s 27 points send A&M to the Final Four over Tennessee. The purportedly better game is not, as Kansas blitzes UCLA behind 33 and 12 from Julian Wright.

Monday, March 26: HOYA PARANOIA, with Jeff Green scoring 22 and shutting down King Kevin to send G-Town to its first Final Four since the mid-80s. Joakim Noah has 23 points, 9 boards, and one horrific dance as the Gators win the East over a game Georgia Tech.

Tuesday, March 27: OH, CRAP, as Dan realizes he’s picked the same Final Four as Bill Simmons.

Saturday, March 31: WELCOME BACK, first to Mr. Carter, as in Josh Carter, whose three-pointer with 15 seconds left and Acie Law triple teamed lifts the Aggies into the Final. And second to the Gators, whose win is sealed when Kansas misses four free throws in the final minute.

Sunday, April 1: TOM TERRIFIC, as Glavine tosses a five-hitter over seven to lead the Mets to a 3-1 win in Game 8 of the 2006 NLCS. Oh well.

Monday, April 2: GREATER GATORS, as the Florida talent is just too much for A&M in a 75-64 national championship win. Vitale’s happy, because now he can say “Duke” 372 times in referencing the last repeat champion. The men of Gainesville are happy, because the women of Gainesville will be drunker and easier. Few others are happy, though.

Tuesday, April 3: VIVE LA FRANCE, with Courtney Paris dropping 32 and 22 to lead Oklahoma over Duke in the women’s title game. Wrong blog? Oh, sorry. Well, fine, then: every single Gator down to Tim Tebow declares for the draft, so someone else can win the men’s tournament next year next year. And not a moment too soon…for it will then be time to hate the Yank$!

- Cousin Dan

(Pics courtesy of Aggieathletics.com, truthaboutduke.com, scout.com, and newsday.com)

The Nightmare Next Door

I remember Alex Rodriguez's first spring training with the Yankees. The press coverage was unimaginable. Every day I'd collect my copy of the Daily News hoping to see a story about a Met on the back page, and virtually every day I was disappointed.

Instead, the headlines crowed about A-Rod's first-anything as a Yankee: his first workout, his first batting practice, his first awkward interview. You name it and the New York tabloids were there to cover it.

At the time I dismissed the A-Rod fascination as the result of novelty, but even back then I knew there was a little hint of envy in my dismissiveness. Like virtually every other Mets fan out there, there was a time when I desperately wanted A-Rod in orange and blue.

It was Y2K. The Mets had just been to the World Series, but their flaws were evident. Everyone knew Mike Hampton was gone, so our pitching was going to be weaker in 2001. Meanwhile, nobody really had faith in our offense, where Met legends Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton and Timo Perez were clearly producing on borrowed time. Robin Ventura had fallen off a cliff, Rey-Rey was Rey-Rey, and Todd Zeile, family man that he was, was not your prototypical first-base power guy.

The answer was A-Rod. He'd grown up a Mets fan, we all knew that. We all read that interview where he said the happiest memory of his pre-professional baseball life was watching the Mets win the World Series in 1986. His cherished memories were ours, and that means a lot to a fan.

All the goodwill wasn't worth a damn in the end, and though we agreed he didn't deserve a private jet (even if we knew the line between reality and Steve Phillips' spin was blurry), we still thought we were worse off for passing.

Here we are now some seven years later and none of us would have traded the course of events that transpired in A-Rod's absence for whatever might have been if he'd signed here. But what about A-Rod? I wonder whether he wishes he could go back to that offseason in 2000 and do it all over, maybe sign for less money and come to the Mets.

I'll admit I never much followed the guy when he was with Seattle. I knew he was out there and he was nasty, but I don't follow American League ball too closely, and the Mets and Mariners never directly competed against one another so A-Rod was always on my periphery.

The point is that any feelings I have for him, uniformly negative, emerged that offseason. Before then he was just another great ballplayer, a mid-90s Frank Thomas type who you knew was really good but didn't have any real concept of.

That offseason was the decisive moment in A-Rod's public reputation, both for me and for a lot of other fans around the country. We knew he was making substantially more for substantially longer than any other player in baseball. We had been told that he was a me-first (24-plus-1) guy. Perhaps most damaging, we knew that he'd been a Mets fan growing up, but that wasn't enough for him to sign on the dotted line on, only $252 million was enough.

I really think that last element, which is rarely discussed in the discourse about A-Rod, is as important as any other factor in his tarnished reputation. Baseball fans see players sign for mega contracts all the time and for all sorts of reasons and they emerge unscathed whether they produce or not; for his part A-Rod has produced a lot better than a ton of other big-money guys (Hello, Mike Hampton).

But as much as we know about ballplayers, we rarely know which teams they rooted for growing up. Really, we only know it when the player ends up with that team or when he ends up with that team's big rival. Failing those conditions it's not widely discussed.
With A-Rod it was. The tabloids dubbed him "Shea-Rod", and his signing with the Mets was considered a foregone conclusion. The Mets were a big-money club, and between that and his childhood affinity for the team, it was just a matter of time.

When Steve Phillips publicly announced the Mets were out of the running, I was stunned. I remembered asking myself how it was possible to lose out on a guy who wants to play for you?

In the end I decided it wasn't the Mets' fault, that it was just something about A-Rod, a certain disingenuousness. He says he's like you, that he wants to play for the team he rooted for growing up just like you always wanted to, but in the end he's just about the money or the celebrity, or whatever it is. He's not about playing the game for the joy that we associate with the game as fans or as former little leaguers. It's a critical disconnect.

I think all of it was evident when he signed with Texas, and I think it's no coincidence that it's been all downhill for him, public perception-wise, since there.

Sure there's the money thing, but there are a lot of guys who have the money thing who aren't despised. There's a more fundamental disconnect at work.

And for me, it all started that offseason seven years ago, when a young A.F.O.M.G. was so desperate for A-Rod to be a Met, and so confounded when he wasn't.

I remember how desperate the young A.F.O.M.G. was to have A-Rod, but here we are seven years later and A-Rod isn't my luxury, he belongs to the other New York team and I have to read about him every day in my local papers, and in spite of it all I couldn't have been happier with how things played out.

Seven years later, I wonder if A-Rod feels the same way.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of mlb.com, seattlepi.nwsource.com and usatoday.com)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: AL Central

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West. Today? The Big Midwest. In expected order of finish ...

The Cleveland Injuns
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: 3B Aaron Boone (thank god), 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
What's up?: RF Trot Nixon, 2B Josh Barfield, RHP Roberto Hernandez

Half-full: You've probably heard about the Indians' bizarre 2006 season; they scored far more runs than they allowed, which usually (always?) results in a winning record. Instead, an abysmal record in one-run games, a devastatingly bad bullpen and some woeful defense left them in a huge hole. Well, they're actually really good. They're going to run a double platoon in the outfield corners (Trot and Casey Blake in right, Jason Michaels and Dave Dellucci in left), which is really cool. You don't need to be an optimist to think Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are all going to have MVP-type years again, nor does it take a leap of faith to think C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook and young gun Jeremy Sowers are solid rotation anchors. But you have to hope shortstop Jhonny Peralta will have more of an '05 year (.292/.366/.520) than an '06 one (.257/.323/.385), you have to think 3B Andy Marte is ready to go for the big time, and you have to think the additions of Hernandez and Joe Borowski will calm down the young arms in the pen. I'm perfectly bullish on the first two, but with the relievers, only time will tell. Still, there are holes all around the division, and this potentially looks like the team with the least of them.

Half-empty: One is an accident, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. The bullpen/one-run thing has been devastatingly bad for two years on the trot now, and it's not like the guys they brought in to batten down the hatches are waterproof. Keith Foulke was supposed to be one of them, but he retired before Spring Training even started, which seems like something that happened in a "Major League" movie, though I certainly don't remember it. The idea is that relivers Fausto Carmona and Fernando Cabrera have much better stuff than they showed last year, and their struggles resulted from being jerked around between roles and the minors. I happen to think that's true, but if they revert back to the 1.45 WHIP/5.50 ERA-type of player, you can't be surprised. Peralta seems to have serious defensive problems, and unless they can fix them with positioning, he could be out of a job.

Guide to hating: The hating on C.C. Sabathia thing for being fat never worked for me. Here are his innings pitched for the last three years - 188, 197, 193. The guy isn't spending tons of time on the DL. He's just spending tons of time in the Akron-area Dairy Queens. There's a difference, people; you should learn to live with it. We ought to give Lister some love for his boy Ryan Garko, who's scheduled to start at first base and could avoid being a complete disaster there if he keeps his head in the game (as he really didn't do at times in Buffalo, according to my sources). Vic Martinez is developing a nasty whining habit, too, which will put him under closer scrutiny. All told, though, this is a collection of solid, hard-working types (Sizemore, Hafner, Trot, the new 2B Barfield) who just aren't all that dislikable.

Additional reading: Let's Go Tribe

The Detroit Tiggers
2006 record: 95-67
Peace: LHP Jamie Walker
What's up?: RF/DH Gary Sheffield

Half-full: Easy -- if everything happens exactly the same way as it did last year, it's curtains. Carlos Guillen and Curtis Granderson are great bets to keep producing, although the fact that Guillen had to moved over to first quite a bit last year is sort of disturbing. If Jim Leyland coaxes a top-drawer effort out of Sheffield and gets the guys who produced last year to keep it up, the Tigers will be looking fantastic. You can expect most of the young pitchers to be a little worn out from last year's playoff run, but any regression there ought to be balanced out from improvement, given how young (some of them) are. More of about the same from Verlander and Bonderman and a healthy return from Mike Maroth would be entirely satisfactory, and there's no telling how long the Gambler will be able to keep it up. Are you going to bet against him? Not a good idea, chief.

Half-empty: I think there's trouble on the way. Think about it this way -- Pudge is on the fade. Sean Casey has been fading for a long time now, and he's their starting 1B (instead of Chris Shelton, whose white-hot start to 2006 helped get Detroit out of the gate). Placido Polanco's power is disappearing (.295/.329/.364 last year). Then there's the guys who played just as well as you could have wanted them to last year, namely Maggs Ordonez (24 HR, 104 RBI in a full season) and Craig Monroe (28 HR and more big ones in the playoffs despite the .301 OBP). One or all of these guys is going to give something back this year. Moreover, if Sheffield was still with the Yankees, we'd be screaming about how awful his shoulder was, and how he was going to be a wreck. Well, I don't feel any differently now that he's switched teams. Best of luck with that, boys.

Guide to hating: See the preceding paragraph. Change of setting or not, the Iron Sheff will not get along well in the Motor City, mark my words. I know he and the manager have a previous relationship to work with, but that was before Gary starting mixing the strong stuff with the crazy pills and downing them both with a full pitcher of spite. Leyland's going to be chain-smoking Newports by May Day. I'm eagerly awaiting the first Mitch Albom column on him, which might break the world record for Most Prissy Passive-Aggressive Digs at a Player's Character by a couple dozen. And he thought he was safe getting out of New York and away from our delightful media. No sir. Also, Robertson's red hair was one of the most annoying things I saw during the World Series. Mixed with those stupid Edgar Davids goggles, he looked like an incompetent Irish assassin. Change it up, boyo.

Additional reading: TigerBlog

The Chicago Ozzies
2006 record: 90-72
Peace: RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Brandon McCarthy, 1B Ross Gload
What's up?: RHP Gavin Floyd (ugh), CF Darin Erstad (double ugh)

Half-full: Hmm. They got an MVP year out of Jermaine Dye, who, judging entirely from his appearance on MTV's Cribs, is a pretty decent guy. Love the way he keeps jerseys of as many players as he's been teammates with as possible. The Dye-Thome-Konerko troika in the middle of the lineup was certainly dangerous, and the dudes put runs on the board. So did 3B Joe Crede (30 HR, 94 RBI, nasty defense), which gives the team a good nucleus to work off of. The rotation obviously went in the tank as compared with 2005, including spectacular regression from Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Naturally, GM Kenny Williams dealt away Garcia, the started who threw 216 innings and held onto most of his value. With Javy Vazquez and (probably) knuckleballer Charlie Haeger filling out the rotation, you've got a group that you can certainly PICTURE doing well. How much exactly that's worth is a different question.

Half-empty: His problems were off the nagging injury variety, and given his age and uncertain pedigree, Contreras could be in trouble. He's not striking out guys with that splitter anymore, and his fastball's always been a little straight. But the real problem is in the outfield, which looks like a total mess. As much as Dye will be an asset, he's not going to repeat his performance. Then you've got center, where second-year player and complete disappointment Brian Anderson will have to fend off the animated corpse of Erstad, whose PECOTA line of .242/.297/.324 looks like something out of "The Hills Have Eyes 2." But he's got pluck! In left, they're going to work with some mix of young Ryan Sweeney (ain't ready) and Scott "Jets" Podsednik, who ain't got it no' more. Neither can play defense. The bench took a hit when Gload was sent to Kansas City. There just doesn't seem like enough to get it done.

Guide to hating: An awful, awful team. Where should we start? There's the GM Williams, who went out of his way to spit in Frank Thomas' face as the best player in franchise history was walking out with a championship ring on his hand. That was poor enough that it had me grabbing my ice picks. Then, there's the weak, lazy attitude copped by Podsednik, Buehrle, Bobby Jenks and all the other members of the championship club last year once things started to slip. "Our way was good enough last year, wasn't it?" and that sort of thing. I hate to break it to you, fellas, but it's a cruel world out here, and the games keep on coming. You either want to play or you don't. Elsewhere, I'm not sure what Tadahito Iguchi's up to, but it's definitely something. I'll be sure to let Y2K readers know if I find out anything else. In the pen, you've got Royals refugees Andy Sisco and Mike McDougal, each of whom is apparently poison, according to guys in K.C. On the other hand, the manager and the catcher are a pair of stand-up guys.

Additional reading: Pro Wrestling Illustrated

The Minnesota Twinkies
2006 record: 96-66
Peace: LHP Francisco Liriano (for the year), RHP Brad Radke
What's up?: RHP Ramon Ortiz

Half-full: They've got the best pitcher in baseball, the best catcher in baseball, the AL MVP, and probably the best closer in baseball. Torii Hunter is good for a couple of different things. They have Mike Cuddayer (.284/.362/.504), who finally made his breakthough at age 27. Then ... there's some other stuff, young pitchers like Boof Bonser and Matt Garza and punchless infielders like Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto. They've got a dome. They've got, I don't know, a lot of Lutheran fans.

Half-empty: They don't have nearly enough to get it done this year. The future of the rotation is bright as hell, with Bonser, Garza, Matt Perkins and Kevin Slowey all candidates to join Liriano once he gets back (Santana's long-term future, needless to say, is still up in the air. Hello, New York!). But honestly, when your starting DH is Rondell White or a guy whose OBP was .279 last season, you're in deep shit. I'm not sold on Cuddayer whatsover, and after Santana, it's entirely unclear about what you're going to get. Signing Ramon Ortiz is a waste of everyone's time, especially mine for having to type about it. If he's not out of the rotation by May, pack it up.

Guide to hating: The thought of Santana signing with the Yankees in two years is enough to make me sick. Seriously, I just had to get up and do a lap around the apartment to calm myself down. Whoosh. Okay, as long as he's knocking around the rest of the AL, he's the bomb, but there's a definite risk involved in liking this guy too much. Joe Mauer is a Minneapolis version of David Wright, with the added bonus of being a hometown guy. He dates models, kisses babies, lives a wholesome and rewarding existence. I'm ambivalent, although he's a hell of a guy to build a team around. Rondell White has always annoyed the hell out of me, even though he was only briefly with the Yanks. Oh, and the manager is one of these old-school twits that needs to be taken behind the shack and beaten like a rug.

Additional reading: Aaron Gleeman

The Kansas City Royals*
* "Blazing Saddles" joke sidestepped by pure force of will
2006 record: 62-100
Peace: 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, RHP Ambiorix Burgos
What's up?: RHP Gil Meche, RHP Octavio Dotel, C Jason LaRue , RHP Brian Bannister

Half-full: The offense is sort of coming around. Mark Teahen served up a full plate of "Moneyball" satisfaction at 3B, and he'll be moved to the outfield to make room for rookie Alex Gordon, who might put up even better numbers. Outfielder David DeJesus is useful in his own way (.295/.364/.446), and the 1B/DH combo of Mike Sweeney and Ryan Shealy is likely to be serviceable at the very least. Depending on where they play DeJesus, Emil Brown and Reggie Sanders both are perfect fits for a crappy, going-nowhere team. In the future, when they're actually looking to compete, they'll have to find replacements for the sinkholes they have at SS (Angel Berroa) and CF (Joey Gathright), but for now, there's at least something going on here.

Half-empty: The problem with the Royals has been, for quite some time, their pitching. They gave up six runs a game in 2006. That is, to put it mildly, insane. (No offense to Zack Greinke). The Gil Meche signing was supposed to be the key factor in fixing this; the odds of this actually happening are somewhat low. Odalis Perez will be a decent No. 2 starter, and after that, the rotation reads like that of a mediocre AAA club, Brian Bannister included. Octavio Dotel could be the solution in the closer slot, but he hasn't been any good since 2004, and he's coming off a nasty injury and a stint with the Yankees, which usually only serves to kill off pitchers not named Mariano. No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar is coming, but nobody knows how fast, considering his first pro experience was 15 innings with A-ball Burlington at the end of last year's holdout. The staff will be better than last year's by default, but that's not saying much.

Guide to hating: Have pity, won't you?

Additional reading: Rob and Rany

Predictions: Indians 97-65, Tigers 92-70, White Sox 86-76, Twins 81-81, Royals 69-93

Say What!?

Is he serious?

Before I go off on a tirade let me say this. I watch every Knicks game and the one thing about this team is that they really seem to have solid camaraderie. Teammates seem to like each other and really support each other, which in the NBA, is not all that common.

In baseball, this can make or break a season. A solid clubhouse can get a team over the hump. If players like their manager they might run a little harder to first base or not show him up when they get taken out of a game. These things are very important in baseball.

But this is basketball, and Isiah Thomas, with his team 5 games under .500 in the worst division in maybe the history of basketball, has no business getting an extension, at least not right now.

Being the 18th best team in basketball is not all that impressive, is it?

Sure, it looks great relative to last year. But last year was one of the bigger blowups in the history of sports. A godly coach coming to the biggest franchise in sports. It all should have worked and things should have been good. But when it didn't, things crashed and burned.

But, a lot of last year has to fall on Isiah Thomas. Every decision about this franchise was in someway his doing. Last year's team, for the most part, was Isiah's roster. So is this year's team.

Which is why there is only one thing that would make sense for Mr. Dolan and Isiah Thomas: give Isiah an extension to continue coaching this team. He may not be the greatest coach, but at least his players like him.

But why let this guy continue as Team President? Isiah is terrible at making personel decisions. At best, the Eddy Curry trade is a wash, if only because Tyrus Thomas doesn't emerge. He got very lucky drafting David Lee, a pick that Knicks fans heavily booed the night of the draft, with many seeking Chris Taft of Pittsburgh.

Outside of that, every basketball decision this guy has made has been HORRIBLE.

The Steve Francis deal.

Jerome James and Jared Jeffries.

Drafting Renaldo Balkman over Marcus Williams, Rajon Rondo, Alexander Johnson...etc, etc.

Cutting Jalen Rose instead of trading him with Channing Frye for Pau Gasol (would have been easy).

Dolan could have given Isiah $20 million reasons to come back as the head coach, but not as President, but for whatever reason, he felt the urge to get this done now. Maybe he has a concert tour this summer or maybe he was too drunk.

But this decision, like most decisions coming from the Garden, was dumb and it came at the wrong time.

VCD,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of Knicksonline.com, hoopshype.com)

The Best Time of the Year

The best time of the year is upon us.

Selection Sunday is one of my big 5. It means the start of the NCAA Tournament - SICK - which, of course, ends just as our beloved baseball season begins. The weather is starting to get warmer, the days are getting longer and everyone commits to getting in healthier shape for the upcoming summer.

Selection Sunday is a great time of the year.

To celebrate the nice weather and happy basketball spirit I ordered a large pan pizza and buffalo wings from Pizza Hut. It wasn't very well thought out, more of an impulse purchase on the suggestion of one of my roommates. Nine hours later and I think I have an early candidate for biggest regret of 2007.

A nice lazy Sunday spent between trips to the bathroom and multiple viewings of the Bourne Supremacy took me up to the selection show, one of the best hours in sports.

So many questions to answer: What seed will my alma mater, the Quakers of UPenn get? Who will they play? Who's in? Who's out? Why do I have sharp pains in my side?

The answers to those and many more questions give me the only reason all year to tune into CBS. Especially now that Murder She Wrote is off the air.

I'm all geared up for a big week of over-analyzing and annoying phone calls from girls who need help with their brackets, the same girls that will inevitably win the pools that mean so much to us dudes. This of course excludes Coop. If she wins, she deserves it. God bless you.

I'll go into a little more detail this week about the tourney, chaos with our boy Duaner and anything else that might go down on USA or TBS.

As for the tourney, my money is on Florida to repeat. They're basically an NBA team. A bunch of guys going to the NBA who for some reason came back to college. And so just like with the NBA, Florida didn't really try all year, lost some games they shouldn't and didn't dominate everyone like we all expected.

But now it's March, Joaquin Noah will put away the bubbler for a couple of weeks, Billy Donovan will get the boys in shape and Florida will run away with this thing.

Otherwise, I really like Texas A&M to make a run. Acie Law is the truth, one of those players that everyone will fall in love with come March. They have a solid shooter in Josh Carter and big Anty Kavaliauskas is my guy. Dude just has a really sweet name, and he is kind of a young Vlade. I don't know, they'll probably be at the end of my bracket which means they will probably lose to the Quake in the first round.

As for first round upsets, I like Stanford to beat Louisville, who like most of the rest of the Big East, I think is just kinda bad. Though I am and have been all about the Hoyas for a little while. They can win games defensively.

Having watched every chance I could, I can easily say that Kevin Durant is the best college basketball player I have ever seen. He scores every way possible with amazing ease. He consistently puts up 25 and 10. I really can't think of a player in our lifetime who has done to college basketball what he is doing. And he is a really young freshman.

But I don't like Texas in the tourney. They are easily the sexy pick this year. They are fun to root for and have been there before. But to me, they showed against Kansas on Sunday that they are just too young and inexperienced.

And as much as I love Durant, I don't think he can carry a team like Melo did a couple years back. As great as his numbers are I just see him like I see Kevin Garnett. The best guy on the court but not someone that can truly take over a game even when they are putting up filthy numbers.

This will be controversial I know, but I'm the one who is writing here and this is just one of my opinions. And I am very often wrong.

That's all for now. Enjoy this week, it really is one of the best times of the year.

VCD,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of kenston.us)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL West

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West. Today? You know it -- the NL West. In expected order of finish ...

The Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 record: 76-86
Peace: IF Craig Counsell, LF Luis Gonzalez, RHP Miguel Batista
What's up?: LHP Randy Johnson, LHP Doug Davis

Half-full: Hey, it's a bandwagon pick a la the Brewers of 2006. Young team, vulnerable division... that worked so well we're back to do it again. But the new-looks D-Backs are built to compete, with a deep rotation. We hated the Unit when he was with the Yankees, but you can pencil him in for a much-improved season back in the harsh desert air. He throws alongside the reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and a pair of major-league inning eaters in Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez. Then there's the lineup, which features more young talent than Brother Jimmy's on a Friday night. Start with stud shortstop Stephen Drew, the Tyler Durden to his brother's Ed Norton, and add baller Chris Young in center field, Carlos Quentin in right, Conor Jackson at first and Miguel Montero behind the plate. If that's not enough to convince you, take a look at Byrnesy's killer 'do out in left field. Fuckin' A, man.

Half-empty: Well, young guys are young guys, so what are you going to do? Even if doesn't happen in '07, it's not like the future isn't bright for this team. The bullpen is just as unpredictable as everyone else's, moreso because Jorge Julio (remember him?) is involved. Hernandez and Davis are good bets, but neither pitched ... how do you say ... "well" last year. RJ's back could turn into a piece of flatbread at a moment's notice, and you really need guys like Orlando Hudson and Chad Tracy (.281/.343/.451 and poor defense at 3B) to be no worse than they were last season, or else they start turning into liabilities.

Guide to hating: Julio made plenty of enemies during his short stint in Shea, let me tell you. It had to do with everyone talking themselves into the trade at the time, and then being wildly disappointed that Peterson didn't fix our new fireballing reliever. Does the fact that John Maine looks like a great consolation prize lessen our disgust with Jorge one iota? No, it does not. Don't bother trying to figure it out. RJ isn't nearly as disgusting out of pinstripes. "Nicest guy in baseball" or not, I've never liked former Yankee Tony Clark, even if he was a Met at one point. Still, having Byrnesy and Pittsfield, Mass. native/prospect Matt Torra around cancel out a lot of sins.

Additional reading: AZ Snakepit

The Los Angeles Dodgers
2006 record: 88-74
Peace: OF J.D. Drew, IF Julio Lugo, RHP Eric Gagne
What's up?: Gonzalez, RHP Jason Schmidt, CF Juan Pierre (shudder), RHP Randy Wolf

Half-full: Another team with a stacked rotation. Top to bottom, they're going to go Schmidt, Penny, Wolf, Lowe and Kuo/Billingsley, with the other waiting to take over in case of injury. Sick. You might look for a little more out of the pen, but fireballer Jon Broxton is probably waiting to be the new Eric Gagne, and Saito and Co. were perfectly acceptable last year. Catcher Russ Martin is a personal fave and a candidate to bust out with a big, McCann-like year. They've got a speedy top of the lineup, with Pierre and Furcal set to steal a bunch of bases in the 1-2 slots. They've got pop at most spots in the lineup.

Half-empty: I was really just trying to be kind there. You know your offseason signings sucked when the "half-empty" scenario is that neither of them suffer career-ending injuries as soon as possible. That's the dynamic we have going here -- the more Pierre (projected for a whopping .291/.338/.374 by Baseball Prospectus) and Gonzo play ahead of young fellas like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney (learning right field, or so we've heard), the worse off Los Angeles is. Remember, manager Grady Little LOVES former Met Marlon Anderson, so on any given day, you're going to have the worst three options starting in the outfield. Hooray! Again, Nomar and Kent are both likely candidates to implode, whether due to injury or motorbikes, and Wilson Betemit is a pretty ugly starting third baseman in the National League these days. Look for the GM to keep him and deal intriguing prospect Andy LaRoche for some other decrepit body.

Guide to hating: Ethier seemed like a punk during his trip to Shea last summer, so we can root against him. Just mentioned Nomar, so there you go. Heard Yoko's pregnant again, which is something. I'll never forget the column Bob Ryan wrote in the Boston Globe after Nomar's hammy vaporized when he was with the Cubs; Ryan wrote the sleazy, day-after "Isn't that a steroid injury?" column. He was up near me for a talk and we went out for drinks afterward, and we hammered him about the piece, which was pretty unfair. Ryan's defense was twofold -- first, everyone under the earth he talked to SWORE it was a textbook steroids response, normal muscles don't fall apart that way, etc. Secondly, Nomar had it coming. Nobody argued with him. P.S. -- I'm not including Kent here, who's so surly and unlikable that he's sort of lovable now, if you know what I mean. As long as you're white.

Additional reading: Dodger Thoughts

The San Diego Padres
2006 record: 88-74
Peace: OF Dave Roberts, 2B Josh Barfield, 1B Ryan Klesko, C Mike Piazza
What's up?: 2B Marcus Giles, RHP Greg Maddux, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff

Half-full: Similar team to the Dodgers -- solid rotation, suspect lineup. Jake Peavy is likely to rebound to be a Cy Young candidate and at least the best pitcher in the division, and Maddux is good for his usual, with a boost from the pitcher's park at Petco. I'm not a Chris Young man myself, but a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.46 ERA (Petco boosted, of course), 164K in 179 IP is pretty impressive stuff from a 6-10 bruiser. Boomer is likely to thrive in a flyball-happy environment. Mike Cameron is a perfect centerfield fit for the park.

Half-empty: I just hate their lineup. Not one but both of the Giles brothers look done like dinner, and they had at least one guy, and maybe two (1B Adrian Gonzalez and C Josh Bard) play way over their heads last year in a non-replicable manner. Seriously, I'll be stunned if Bard's batting average doesn't drop 100 points. I don't mind giving 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (the prospect from the Barfield deal) a look, but he's basically in a must-produce situation already, with Mark Bellhorn and Geoff Blum the other options. Woof. Khalil Greene has become usless for producing anything other than Web Gems. Oh, and Russ Branyan is being counted on to play every day, which has, you know, never worked. Ever.

Guide to hating: Young is a Princeton guy, which makes him a target right away. You hear me big boy? From what I hear, our pet Yalie Ron Darling's going to make sure Guillermo Mota's got a little something for you. (July 16 ... save the date). Cameron obviously earned plenty of props from his work for the Mets, and Trevor Hoffman's somehow drifted into "distinguished future Hall of Famer" territory without anyone noticing. To be honest, the circle change is a hell of a pitch, and I don't know any specific reason to get on him, so I'll back off. I'm just not quite comfortable with all the feel-good accolades, I guess.

Additional reading: Duck Snorts

The Colorado Rockies
2006 record: 76-86
Peace: RHP Jason Jennings, RHP Jose Mesa
What's up?: CF Willy Taveras, RHP Taylor Buchholz, OF Steve Finley

Half-full: New Rox! Hold on. New Rox? No. Not as such. Believe it or not, nothing much has changed since the fall. Most of the best pitching staff in club history is still around, including young gunner Jeff Francis and sinkerballer Aaron Cook. The man himself, Todd Helton, is still in Denver, with potential trades toBoston and New York never realized. The face of the franchise is due for a rebound of sorts, which could go nicely along with matching campaigns from Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe, a true slugging duo in the outfield corners. Major surprise Garrett Atkins at third (.329/.409/.556) should do it again, and rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki almost has to provide a big upgrade over the pitiable Clint Barmes. Catcher Chris Ianentta (age 24) has a real fancy-looking PECOTA projection (.290/.377/.476) after a knockout AAA campaign and decent cup of coffee. If he's anything like that, he'll be a major asset.

Half-empty: It's not that Jennings, pitched to Houston for prospects, was the lynchpin or anything. It's just that the humidor thing was so weird last year that you can't for a moment trust anything about the Rockie pitchers' numbers from last season. I mean, YOU can if you want them for fantasy purposes or something. I'm keeping my distance from all of these guys, who could wake up back in the bad old Coors on Opening Day. We all know how Byung-Hyun Kim deals with adversity. The rookie shortstop isn't a sure thing by any means.

Guide to hating: Y2K correspondent and altogether good guy Denver Dave covered this not too far back. Being a Rockies fan, he was conflicted about Christofacist nonsense coming out of the Colorado clubhouse. We need have no such compunctions.

Additional reading: Beliefnet

The San Francisco Giants
2006 record: 76-85
Peace: Schmidt, OF Moises Alou, 1B Shea Hillenbrand, Finley
What's up?: Roberts, LHP Barry Zito, C Bengie Molina, 1B (?) Rich Aurelia

Half-full: Man, it's another pretty decent rotation, and an even younger one than the others. If stud righthander Tim Lincecum is brought up quickly, he and Matt Cain will provide a stunning young 1-2 pop before you even get to Zito. If he isn't, expect to see the other Barry and Matt Morris try to carry the rotation before they get distracted by a couple of bay seals. Ray Durham had a resurgent little season at age 34 (.293/.360/.538, with a career-high 26 homers), and could be almost as good again. Coming off a great two-year run with the Padres, Roberts is a dynamic pickup and should be able to handle center in San Fran.

Half-empty: Everything else is pointing in the direction of old and ugly. The addition of Molina makes the team, improbably, even fatter and slower, while Aurelia, Pedro Feliz and Randy Winn are likely to be slothful disasters in their respective positions. Bonds is likely to break the home run record, and his rate stats will probably look decent regardless of how hurt he is, but a pessimist would say that you're not going to get much else out of him.

Guide to hating: Good morning, Armando Benitez! Hope you're doing, ahem, well. Now, for the main event. Nothing I'm going to write about Bonds in this space is going to make a whit of difference toward what anyone is going to feel anyway, so make up your own mind about that. I'm going to continue hating at full bore. (What do I bid for a career-ender in the first week of the season? Be truthful, now. I bet we could scrounge up enough to send Sip to the stadium with a sniper rifle and a police scanner. "The Fan" was pretty awful, but hey...) And Zito is a whole different can of worms. I hope you're happy staying out there in California, you addle-brained surf zombie, but when the wind coming off the water starts spraying your curveball into the unfortunate corners of the batter's box, don't come whining to Y2K. You had your chance. You made yo' move. We would have treated you right, girl. Now quit all the fussin' and the frontin' and go out and lose 15 games. For poppa.

Additional reading: McCovey Chronicles

Predictions: Diamondbacks 90-72, Dodgers 88-74, Padres 88-74, Rockies 81-81, Giants 73-89

Morning Musings

Hey everyone, A Friend of Mr. Glass' here. Remember when I started virtually every post like that? Oh, Young A.F.O.M.G., there's so much you had to learn!

Anyway, just felt like bringing that back. Cheddar's gonna be in with his look at the NL West, but I wanted to post some impressions on the major stories of the day.

1. Mike Pelfrey

Caught the game yesterday on the DVR tip, and Pelfrey looked every bit as dominating as you've read this morning. It was really extraordinary watching every single batter hit ground ball after ground ball, and this on a day when the hardest stuff Pelfrey was throwing topped out at 87 MPH.

It's going to be very interesting to see what comes of Pelfrey in the year ahead. The conventional wisdom is that he's all but certain to start the year in Triple-A. That's fine with me, particularly given the whole 5th pitchers in April thing.

But so many questions! Can he crack the starting 5 out of spring training? Can he harness a fully realized slider? Will he ever appear comfortable/not extraordinarily awkward when speaking to the press? Stay tuned!

2. John Maine

There's a little part of me that hates nicknames. A lot of that has to do with Chris Berman, who seems to feel that his commentary isn't complete unless he's found time to come up with some contrived alternate name for every person wearing a uniform.

But John Maine is different, and in trying to determine why he's different, I think it's because the two most readily used nicknames for him are so awesomely bad. "Remember the" Maine and "Maine Man" are just too ridiculous to be taken seriously, but I'm gonna admit it, whenever I see him pitch I can't help but shout out "Remember the Maine!"

3. Duaner Sanchez

Somehow I'll bet Nails won't start saying how much he hates Duaner Sanchez now that he's gone all Lastings Milledge on us. It's a little disconcerting that a player fighting his way back from injury wouldn't make it a high priority to arrive on time for his workouts, but it looks like Willie is handling it.

If you're wondering, yes, this is the first negative press young Duaner has ever gotten here at Y2K.

Anyway, that about does it for me. Be sure to check in for Cheddar's piece coming up later. Have a good weekend everybody.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of scout.com and mlb.com)

Remembering the Greatest

We all know where we were ten years ago tomorrow. Or at least I do. I was about a year removed from that middle school phase where I thought I was a thug. I wore my jeans baggy and I rocked out to Snoop Dogg.

That all changed when my brother essentially went on steroids and beat it out of me. Thanks Broseph.

March 9th, 1997. One of the most important days of our generation.

Ten years ago tomorrow, the Notorious B.I.G was shot down and murdered, about 1,000 yards from where I live.

Biggie is up there with the most important musicians of our generation. Along with Snoop Dogg, Dr. Dre and Tupac, Biggie took hip hop/rap from a "black" thing and turned it into a mainstream thing. Fifteen years ago you wouldn't hear rap on Z100. If you did, it would be Vanilla Ice or MC Hammer. But the early-mid 90's marked a transformation in our culture and a lot of that is due to the kid we all knew as Big.

Biggie had a huge influence on baseball.

Was there anything better than Derek Bell in 2000, baggy t-shirt and sick mustache coming out in the 2-hole, right behind Rickey, stepping out to "Big Pimpin'"? Sure, that track might have been by Jay-Z, but he went to school with Biggie so we cool.

Is there a more underrated Met than Derek Bell? That dude hit .496 thru June and then I don't think he got a hit the rest of the season.

There were Mets who stepped out to Biggie tracks, most memorably a young and hungry Butch Huskey who helped immortalize "Hypnotize" back in the day. I'm fairly certain Jay Payton had a Biggie track at one point, but maybe not.

Everything in the game changed March 9th, 1997. Sip was a gritty 5'2 freshman about to embark on a JV baseball season comparable to the Fonz's 1999 campaign. Let's just say that out of the 2 hole with the big guys behind me, the Collegiate Dutchmen of 1997 made some serious noise.

I was at a party at some prep school gangster's house. Bobby Jones was warming up in florida excited to take the hill on opening day, the third of Sip's then 13 year-run. A movie called Titanic was about to be released.

Some called Titanic the ship of dreams, and it was.

A lot has changed in ten years, but a lot stays the same.

I still love the Mets. I still love the sounds of the Notorious B.I.G, though it does play a distant second to some Coldplay, Killers or Team Facelift.

And Sip Sr. remains a pretty stellar guy.

We'll always remember you BIG.

VCD,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of Popbox.com, answer.com)

The $50 Million Man

A lot of you might say I'm slipping. That as I approach my quarter life crisis I've replaced my rough edge with a Chris Martin like pleasant charm. No so fast.

I started this site a couple of years back because I was miserable at work and I thought the Yankees were miserable. While some things change, others stay the same.

During the offsesaon I ripped Brian Cashman for the almost $50 million dollars that he sacrificed to bring Kei Igawa to the Yankees. I thought it was a reaction to the Dice-K signing in Boston, a Yankee desperation to fill a void in the back of their rotation but more so, a void on the backpage.

(Note: This guy runs a baseball team or gets stuffed in lockers by baseball players? You tell me.)

I thought then and I think now that the Yankees drastically overpaid for what is supposed to be a very mediocre starting pitcher.

Which is why I was thrilled to see Igawa's spring outing Monday was pretty unsuccessful.

1IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits and 3 pretty little walks later and Yankee nation, those paying attention 5 months early is starting to panic.

The Yankees took a mjor risk moving Randy Johnson. As mediocre as he has been the last couple of years, he is still better than 85% of major league starters. With Igawa and Carl Pavano, the Yankees have a ton of questions in their rotation. Andy Pettitte hasn't been healthy in a long time and Mike Mussina is another year older.

In short, let the pitching questions begin!

I gotta say, the American League East is going to be great to watch this year. We all know what the Sox did this offseason, the Blue Jays will be there, the DRays are young and ever so sexy and god knows J Schubes is fired up about Steve Trachsel and the new look Orioles pen. Let's just say I wouldn't be surprised if there is a heavy dose of panic come June from the boys in pinstripes.

To end things, the Mets lost in their annual World Series preview game to those pesky tribesmen of Cleveland, but the bounced back with a 7-2 win over those pesky Astros.

My best friend vs. my favorite cousin. What a match up.

Vaya con dios.

Sip

(Pics courtesy of risingstars.com, mlb.com)

Y2K 2007 Season Preview: AL West

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks, starting today with the alien turf of the AL West. In expected order of finish ...

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2006 record: 89-73
Peace: CF/1B Darren Erstad, 2B Adam Kennedy
What's up?: CF/HGH user Gary Matthews Jr., 1B Shea Hillenbrand

Half-full: The favorite due to a pretty decent set of pitchers and a stud group of prospects including Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood, who'll probably break camp as the starting 2B and 3B combination. Kendrick looked excellent in 282 ABs last year, and Wood knocked a total of 169 extra-base hits in the minors over the past two seasons at ages 20-21. The dude can slug. More prospects (Aybar, Morales) are on the way. Rookie pitcher Jered Weaver had a 1.03 WHIP and 2.56 ERA in going 11-2 last season, and he's just as likely as anyone not living in the Twin Cities to challenge for the Cy Young award. John Lackey quietly pitched 217 innings last year with a 3.56 ERA; he's even more likely to be a top starter.

Half-empty: Wood also strikes out more than Sip on an average Saturday night (277 whiffs over the same stretch), so he could easily turn into Adam Dunn without the precious walks. In fact, nobody on the Angels walks -- that's part of the team's patented aggressive approach, and it leaves them so vulnerable to dry hitting patches that they tend to waste perfectly acceptable pitching performances by stringing together quick, unproductive plate appearances. Hillenbrand and Matthews, the new steroid kingpin of Orange County, will only exacerbate this problem. Weaver looks like a damn hippy with his floppy hair, and can't possibly play as well as he did last year.

Guide to hating: Well, I suppose the most die-hard Metsies have to root for Vlad Guerrero's bulging back to finally explode into a million pieces. Jim Duquette's going to have to be vindicated one of these days, right? No? Vlad still went for 33 HR and 116 RBI in 2006, so vengeance may not arrive right away. Weaver must be hated for the sins of his brother. K-Rod's always annoyed most of us with those geeky goggles and hideous delivery -- if his labrum were to detach and land somewhere in Ventura, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Bartolo Colon is out indefinitely while rehabbing his injured arm, but seeing as how he looks exactly like Ramon Castro, we want him to come back for comedic value. Same with Casey Kotchman, who got mono and missed most of last year after trying to play through it. That flies a lot better when you're 15, not 23.

Additional reading: 6-4-2

The Texas Rangers
2006 record: 80-82
Peace: Matthews Jr., LF Carlos Lee, 2B Mark DeRosa
What's up?: RF Sammy Sosa, RHP Brandon McCarthy

Half-full: Were better than their record indicated, and that was with down seasons from slugger Mark Teixeira ("only" 33 HR/110 RBI), Hank Blalock (a crappy .286/.325/.401) and the wildly disappointing Brad Wilkerson (playing on half a shoulder). Blalock has supposedly finally started responding to coaching, and returns to 2004-05 form would give the team an excellent offensive nucleus to add to the Mike Young/Ian Kinsler keystone combination. The pitching situation is better than it has been in a million years, with free agent signings Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla posting excellent seasons in the Arlington bandbox and stud prospect McCarthy coming over from the ChiSox, where he was frozen out behind their wall of starters. Sosa could conceivably contribute 25 HR and remind everyone he used to be the most popular person on the planet, trailing only Ellen DeGeneres.

Half-empty: Far more likely is that Sammy flames out before Opening Day and forgets how to speak English (again). Padilla will turn back into a pumpkin, and Blalock will remain one. With pitching prospects John Diamond and Edinson Volquez (a 2.06 WHIP in 33 IP at the end of the year) still some time away, there's no margin of error for the largely untested McCarthy, who's got home-run and flake issues. That should make for some interesting quotes, at the very least. Oh, and how much can you really expect Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto to contribute?

Guide to hating: The backup plan for Sosa is none other than one Victor Diaz, the Mets' erstwhile Mini-Manny and a head case of some repute. I'll personally be rooting for him to succeed down in Arlington, but it's not at all unreasonable to feel otherwise. More importantly, there are tons of former Phillies and Braves (Padilla, Millwood, Lofton, Rob Tejeda) to really get some vicious ire behind. Especially Padilla, a sourpuss with a bad attitude who lucked into a $33 mil. sinecure during this bizarre offseason, and will probably shut it down and try to game his way into a playing-induced retirement. That would really chap my ass. Also, Y2K gives a hearty thumbs-down to the comeback attempt of Eric Gagne, formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the disabled list. He's thrown 13 innings since 2004 with a variety of injuries that would impress a professional wrestler (which all Canadians secretly wish they were, as it happens). The goggles, the sideburns, the attitude ... it was a little much the first time around. Now, if he could throw that pretty changeup without prancing around on the mound like a park ranger on two tabs, that would be another thing.

Additional reading: None. The Texas blogosphere sucks.

The Seattle Mariners
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: DH/paleontologist Carl Everett, RHP Gil Meche
What's up?: 2B/DH Jose Vidro, OF Jose Guillen, RHP/lucky asshole Jeff Weaver

Half-full: Think about Adrian Beltre this way -- .268/.328/.465 with Gold Glove defense at 3B isn't that bad a package once the huge contract cost is sunk (which it certainly is). King Felix Hernandez had a rough going in his first full season and is almost guaranteed to be better in '07, if not a Doc Gooden-class world beater. Still, that's on the table. They've got a top bullpen led by closer J.J. Putz (0.92 WHIP, 2.30 ERA, 104K in 78.1 IP), a smooth-hitting Japanese catcher, and a delightful infield defense led by Yuniesky Betancourt. What a great name. Ichiro is finally moving to center field, which clears the dead weight out of the position and opens up a corner outfield spot for a bigger bat.

Half-empty: When that bigger bat is Guillen, you may not have thought things through the whole way. Seriously, Guillen and Vidro had so much success in D.C., Seattle just HAD to bring them in. Trading fireballing reliever Rafael Soriano for a starter off the Braves' scrap heap wasn't only idiotic, it forces us to wish ill on both sides of the deal, and nobody needed that. There's not a tremendous amount of upside to be found anywhere on the field, and that's a problem when you were six games below .500 last season.

Guide to hating: Guillen is a can of worms, and lord knows he didn't get along with the rest of the NL East, but it's going to be so funny to see him regularly playing against the Angels (the team that notoriously benched him for the playoffs for mouthing off to Mike Scoscia) that I can't dwell on the past. Jeff Weaver will get what's coming to him soon enough. The real story here revolves around Ichiro, who isn't happy with the way the franchise is headed and is probably gone after this year. He's been dropping hints about this in the Japanese media and not at all letting on in the English-language press, which has resulted into some pretty comical moments in the Mariners' media room. Covering him is a running "Lost in Translation" sketch; Ichiro speaks with polite but noticeable steel in his voice for like three minutes, and the interpreter turns to you and says, "Ichiro is happy in Seattle, and wishes your family well." Damn it.

Additional reading: The cynical bastards aboard the USS Mariner.

The Oakland Athletics
2006 record: 85-77
Peace: DH Frank Thomas, LHP Barry Zito, OF Jay Payton
What's up?: Heterosexual C/DH Mike Piazza, DH Erubiel Durazo

Half-full: The opposite of Seattle, in that there's tons to project if you're of a sunny disposition. The team made the playoffs last year and won a series without getting much of anything out of Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby, their best young pitcher and position player, respectively. Full returns would position the team very nicely. It's the same thing all around -- Eric Chavez has been hurt and slipping for three straight years, but that's not to say he couldn't recover and have the MVP year everyone's been waiting for since "Moneyball" came out. Nick Swisher was extremely productive (35 HR, .372 OBP), and could get better. Milton Bradley could stay out of county and put up a .300/.390/.500 year with 25 steals. A staff of Harden, Haren, Blanton, Loaiza and Joe Kennedy (2.31 ERA as a reliever) has plenty of room to grow and flourish.

Half-empty: Of course, it could all fall apart, too, as I think it will. Thomas basically saved 2006 with a borderline heroic showing (39 HR/114 RBI from a guy who managed only 11 doubles and basically had to ride a wheelchair around the basepaths), and he's departed for the T-Dot to hang out with Nelly Furtado and the Tragically Hip. I'd like to think our boy Piazza could fill his shoes, but then again, I'd also like to think his marriage to Alicia Rickter meant something. And there's literally no reason to think the DL brigade of Crosby/Harden/Bradley/Mark Kotsay can stay healthy for a full season, which gets to be a problem when you have don't have any depth to begin with. With Dan Johnson and Durazo looking for time at 1B, they're going to have to play Swisher in the outfield, which doesn't help their defense. It just seems like the year it goes to seed for Billy Beane.

Guide to hating: Ick. Not a lot to work with here. Swisher and Bobby Kielty are of the Eric "Byrnesy" Byrnes ilk, lovable and endearing to the bitter end, and Chavez is one of the strong, silent types we all can appreciate. Visibly hating on Bradley is a poor idea for any number of felonies, er, reasons, and the eminently hateable Payton has appropriately moved to a team that fits his losing ways, the Orioles. Zito will be covered elsewere. There's really only rags left. Blanton has a fat ass, I suppose, and Huston Street went to the University of Texas, which automatically makes him an awful person. Still, he comes off as more of a laid-back guy in interviews. This is just a disaster all around.

Additional reading: Athletics Nation

Predictions: Angels 91-71; Rangers 87-79, Mariners 84-78, Athletics 75-87

Next: The NL West

A Positive Sip?

Call it a little piece of Monday optimism. Maybe it's cause I had a good weekend or maybe because this is the week where Sip and KFC begin our journey as the next Matty D and Benny the Sellout. Either way, It's all good in Momo Land.

So I was sitting in my backyard on Sunday rotting off my Saturday acquainatace with my old pal Mr. Jameson when my friend's father, a lifelong Red Sox fan, joined along. This man eats, sleeps and breathes Red Sox baseball and he knows his stuff. For years we have been jawing back and forth, talking shop and what have you, but really it's just a pleasure to converse with a man that is so passionate about the game.

The conversation shifted to the Mets and something very exciting hit me. The Mets are the owner of what will be 2007's biggest storyline.

We talked about the pitching or lack thereof. We talked Beltran and Delgado and then he got really excited when we started talking about David Wright.

What the rest of the world doesn't realize and the reason why being a Met fan will be incredible thru the year 2020 is not any of the big guys in the middle or bums on the hill, but the man setting the table, our good friend, Mr. Glass.

You all know me. I see things negatively. But barring injury this season, Jose Reyes will be the MVP of the National League.

I believe in that as much as I believe in betting on Ivy league basketball.

People have no idea just how good this guy is. Over the last three years he went from a kid who swung at 57 footers to a .300 hitter. And he is only 23.

When Ryan Howard was 23 he had three years ahead of him before he saw the city Philadelphia. Glass is working on year 4.

Last year we started to see all the pieces come together. The average, walks, homeruns, RBI all started to go up and up. All of a sudden the biggest weapon on the most potent offense in the National League was the first hitter the opposing pitcher saw.

I am happy to say, my friends, that he is only going to get better. As Reyes continues his transition from freakish athlete to freakish baseball player, we will witness the birth of a sure fire Hall of Famer and a man who will do to the leadoff position what Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken did to shortstop.

Reyes could be a 25 and 100 guy for the next ten years. He'll hit .300, steal 50 bases and get his OBP closer to .400. In short, he will put up numbers that baseball has never seen before.

What's so great about Glass is that he really is a big teddy bear. Has Jose Reyes ever done a single thing wrong? Other than the multiple children out of wedlock he seems to be a saint.

But how many times have you sat there in your living room, watched Glass in the dugout mastering a new handshake and just laughed because you had something so fun to watch every single night?

David Wright has the hype, the looks and the bigger contract. He will no doubt be a star in his own right. But Jose Reyes could go down as the best player ever to don a Mets uniform. Anything that we have seen so far is the smallest of tastes of what we will see in the coming years.

Think about it. This guy has barely grown into his body.

Knowing me, this out of nowhere case of optimism will certainly cause Reyes to have some freaking injury. When that happens, I will give you my address and you can come and hurt me. But for now, let's enjoy this guy tearing up the Grapefruit League like no hitter since Willie Mays Hayes in Major League II...

Going Deep.

VCD,

Sip

Pics courtesy of (softplex.com, mlblogs.com)

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Lastings Milledge

(Note: A piece from Cheddar Ben follows this one from A.F.O.M.G.)

I remember my first week as a working man.

It was that enchanted summer of 2005. Next year was now, Anna Nicole Smith was a complete nobody, Sip was employed, Cheddar was making waves at a small Western Massachusetts daily, and a young, fiery A.F.O.M.G. was set to join the both of them in the working world.

I remember looking around the room during training sessions. Classrooms filled with 20 recent college graduates all in suits or business casual, the kind of people who a few months earlier would've rolled out of bed, put on the same t-shirt they'd been wearing for a week, said 'fuck it' to their homework and partied the hell out of their remaining days at college.

Beneath the suits and gelled hair these were still the same people they'd been a couple months (hell, even a week) before. You could see it in their faces; the youth, the jocularity, the absurdity of their present counterposed with their recent past.

The point was really hammered home when I ran to the bathroom during one of our earlier sessions and discovered that someone had booted in a sink. I'm ashamed to say that my first month or two at college I had a similar episode, now here I was four years later, and some things had changed but a lot had stayed the same.

The point is we were very much professionals, but we were young and at times we made stupid mistakes. Some booted in the sinks, some sent e-mails before giving themselves time to think the better of it, others hooked up with that hot co-worker without regard for how awkward it'd be on Monday.

Not that I have any way of proving it, but things are different for a lot of those people now. I'm not saying we're all a bunch of stiffs or that we don't still go out and rage like we used to, but we've matured nonetheless. We're two years older now, we've been in the game for a little while, we've come to know the ropes.

It was an interview Lastings Milledge gave on WFAN yesterday that got me thinking of this. You know, Milledge was 21 last year when he got his first major league call up. In his time as a big leaguer, Milledge did enough to alienate his teammates, piss off a lot of Mets beat reporters, and lose the support of a pretty sizeable portion of the Mets' fan base.

I'm not going to say it was all completely unfair. No doubt about it, Milledge's problems last year were largely of his own creation. When you're a rookie and you're struggling, there's really no excuse for showing up late. End of story. The whole "Know your place, rook!" thing speaks for itself.

But I think we need to remember what we're dealing with here. We're dealing with a guy who was the youngest player in the National League last year. A guy who's 21 years old. Think of all the 21-year-old star athlete types you know. Sure there are a handful of David Wrights in there, but for every David Wright I'll bet there are five Lastings Milledges. It's the way of the world.

Wright and Jose Reyes have set the bar extraordinarily high. Wright's the guy every mother hopes her daughter will end up with, and Reyes, well, Reyes never stops smiling or dancing, so we cool.

Milledge just isn't that kind of guy, but as I listened to him speak with Mike and the Mad Dog, I realized he probably isn't the guy he's been made out to be by so many in the press, on the radio, or on the comment boards.

He's confident, yes, but humble in his way; he's an engaging personality, genuinely funny actually. It really was a side of Lastings I hadn't seen before.

The point is that there's still so much room for the guy to grow. We all did things when we were 21 that we regret; we all probably thought we were a bit smarter than we actually were.

The question isn't whether we made those mistakes, it's whether we learned from them, and it's the same for Milledge. If he makes all the same mistakes again, that's when you've got a problem. But if he makes a mistake once, learns from it and takes it from there, honestly, who are any of us to judge?

It's like our man Sean Maguire used to say: you're not perfect, sport... but it's not your fault.

Speaking of which... know who NEVER would have broken down crying in that situation?

Lastings Milledge.

- A.F.O.M.G.

Easy Does It

Love the enthusiasm from Sip yesterday, but there's no sense in worrying about what All or Nothing Ollie or Billy the Kid did in their first Spring Training outing of the year. As a whole, the Spring gives the coaches and management a sense of how everyone looks. Taken individually, a performance in a single Spring Training game mean less than nothing.

I mean, it's just way too early to be worrying about batting and pitching lines. I like that Jose Jose Jose hit a homer yesterday, and I like that his slap-happy celebration with Blastings made it onto SportsCenter, but I would have been fine if the Cards had caught the ball on the warning track. I would have been fine if he struck out.

I'm not concerned about the lineups, which everyone says are experimental and designed to get guys at-bats. I'm not reading tea leaves about which pitchers are used.

Baseball is back, and for now, that's plenty good. At this point, we need keep only one eye on how things are going down in Port St. Lucie, and it doesn't always have to be a critical eye. Hell, how else am I supposed to get excited about David Newhan?

----

Baseball Prospectus 2007 literally just showed up in my mailbox, which is why this post is so late coming. I had pre-ordered it back before Christmas, and with those ship dates a couple months in the future, you lose all track of when something's going to show.

Plenty to talk about in the massive, 602-page tome, including a fascinating section on the Mets and great player comments about many of our favorites. We'll get into those soon enough. There's the expected mocking of El Duque's advanced age, skepticism about the usual suspects (it always comes back to Ollie, don't it?), and some discussion of David Wright's mid-summer struggles.

The real talk is going on on BP's Web site, where there's a healthy debate over which is the more valuable NL East SS property; Reyes or Hanley Ramirez. Nate Silver, take it away.

As for Reyes versus Ramirez, I think PECOTA is correct in breaking that tie in favor of the man in Florida. They had nearly identical batting lines last year, both finishing with a .294 EqA, but Ramirez is six months younger, is a steadier defender, and has a fair bit more power projection on account of his larger stature. They’re both franchise players, but anyone that puts Reyes on a higher tier than Ramirez isn’t being objective; if anything, the reverse is true.

Well, there's something to discuss, ain't there? More when Reyes Week heats up later in Spring Training.

----

This was all very well and good, and another example of why it's good to be an SI writer. Happen to witness a big game while taking your son around to see your alma mater? Pen a column about it, and not for no blog -- for the big guys.

----

I just noticed that Metsblog has a post up making the same points I was about to make here, but whatever. Anyway, Ambiorix Burgos threw 13 pitches yesterday in getting four outs, and all of the pitches clocked in at 94 mph or above. That's good velocity for this time of year, and even better consistency.

KC Star columnist Joe Posnanski warns us not to get even remotely excited about Burgos, calling him in effect a bullpen wonder and non-performer. His record, which we discussed here at length over the off-season, certainly bears some of that out.

It was astonishing to watch people light up Burgos just about every time the game mattered (and honestly … how much did those games REALLY matter anyway? The Royals were out of the race in the third week of April). He blew 12 saves last year, but that doesn’t even begin to describe the agony of watching him pitch.

Yeah yeah yeah. But word out of Kansas City is that Brian Bannister, the schlub the Mets traded for this frustrating but eminently projectable 22-year-old arm, is a long shot to make even the Royals' rotation. Gil Meche, Luke Hudson and Odalis Perez are in there for sho', and it looks like they're confident with Jorge De La Rosa (5.88 career ERA) in the No. 4 slot.

That leaves a battle between head case Zack Greinke and Bannister for the No. 5 slot in what will probably again be the worst rotation in the league, all but confirming that the price the Mets paid to roll the Burgos dice was certainly fair.

Everyone enjoy your weekends.

Memories of Port St. Lucie... and First Impressions of 2007

AFOMG's column Wednesday morning got my juices flowing. Spring is here and we return to 7 and hopefully 8 months of exciting Mets baseball. A buddy of mine, Richie the Brawler, was telling me how he was heading down to Port St. Lucie for a few games this Spring. My only response was that I could not be more jealous.

One of the most peaceful days in recent memory for the Sip was spent watching the Mets against my #2 Tribesmen in Port St. Lucie the Spring after the Mets signed Beltran. Me, Goat and the Boy Shye, a Phillies fan but still a legend, watched Yusmeiro Petit throw a couple of decent innings and Beltran go dong on a 3-0 count, I think it was against Cliff Lee. Either way, the day was incredible.

For those who have never made it down to Florida for a game, you're missing out. In Spring Training you are a lot closer to the game. The players are always running around, doing drills or joking around, even during the game.

We grabbed a picnic table right off of third base for most of the game and just soaked in the Florida sun. We were dudes. We were Americans. We were baseball fans.

Being in LA I didn't get a chance to catch yesterday's preseason opener. When I checked out the box score shortly after a few things concerned me:

1. Billy Wagner.

Don't tell me Scott Spiezio has psyched this guy out for good. Or maybe, like Wild Thing Vaughn in Major League II, when he reaches back it just ain't there any more. Someone find Billy an inner city school teacher who happens to be a 10 and maybe this guy can hit 100 mph sometime soon.

2. Our run production, all four RBI, came from a senior citizen, Julio Franco, and one of our three Jews, David Newhan.

I love Julio Franco. What a guy. Taking young Blastings underneath his wing and what not. As for David Newhan, talk about a way to get Mama Sip in the seats. Tell her and her little band of Jewish book club members that there are a bunch of young Hebrews on board and all of a sudden we are trading in Tuesday night's at the Momo house for trips out to Flushing. Dare I say that these are no longer the "New Mets," but rather, the "Jew Mets"?

With fellow children of Israel Shawn Green and Scott Schoenweis, we all better pray the Mets don't have a meaningful game on Yom Kippur. Not with Brother Koufax lurking around Port St. Lucie passing on his wisdom.

3. Good old Oliver Perez.

One of Willie's "guys," Perez showed Wednesday a lot of what scares the pants out of all of us fans of the orange and blue. That whole giving up a lot of runs thing. I know this guy's stuff is "electric" and I know he had an awesome year back when I was still in college, but the red flags have been raised early.

* * * * *

Any way you look at it, all we can do now is smile. The reason we write and you read is baseball, and baseball is finally back.

If we were going to lose to anyone on Wednesday I'm glad it was to my former fantasy captain, Curtis Granderson. When asked by Sports Illustrated what he would name his fantasy team if he had one, Granderson responded, "Team Black." I of course named my team after him and have grown to love the leadoff hitter that strikes out a ton but looks cool doing it.

Not much else for now. Had a huge smile on my face when I saw a little bit about the top fantasy players this year, the two listed: Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes. Last year I was shocked. This year I would only be disappointed to not be back playing in October.

Either way, call up your dad or your brother or whoever else got you into baseball and thank them for what they did.

Good to be home.

Vaya con dios,

Sip