There's Always Two Years From Now

I watched Game 2 of the Yankees-Angels series with the Hound the other night. As the game went to extra innings and the hour grew later, he asked me what the Mets could do to make things better next year.

I told him I didn't know where to begin.

You start by talking about needing another pitcher; after Johan we had the ineffective Mike Pelfrey, the humiliating Oliver Perez, the injured John Maine, and the ghost of Livan Hernandez -- so sure, another arm would help.

But then you realize they desperately need another bat in the lineup, a first baseman or left fielder to slot into the middle of the order, the kind of guy who gives you 30-plus home runs and 100-plus RBI. That'd go a long way.

But there are a host of secondary needs as well. A catcher. A second lefty specialist for the pen (critical if we're going to overtake the Phillies). A long man in the Darren Oliver mold (I was reminded of how good he was for us in '06 during Saturday's game). A legitimate No. 3 (at this point in their careers, none of Maine, Pelfrey, or Perez qualify). An impact pinch hitter for the tight and late situations.

You look at that list and you realize there's a lot that needs to get done. For all the talk about another pitcher and another bat, there's a ton that needs to happen before this team becomes a legit contender again.

The Mets' brain trust (does that descriptor give them more credit than they deserve?) needs to take an honest look at the team it's going to field in 2010. If they make the big splash type moves they're so good at making, what kind of team can we expect?

My guess is that if you make the obvious changes, you're talking about an 88-90-win team. That's a team that'll always be in the thick of things, but, as 2007-2008 showed us, it's the kind of win total that makes you ever the bridesmaid, never the bride.

The Mets then have two options. They can either go the route of the Yankees after 2008, which worked wonders for them in 2009, or they can privately concede that their best chance for returning to the playoffs is in 2011 (particularly when you consider the ascendant Braves and Marlins) and orient each of their offseason moves before 2010 with an eye toward the following season.

Madoff or no Madoff, we know Fred Wilpon's style -- he's not going to authorize the kind of offseason blitzkrieg George/Hank/Hal Steinbrenner signed off on last year for the Yankees.

That means it's building blocks time. Each move should be made with one question in mind: Will this player help us in 2011 and beyond when we can legitimately hope to contend again?

Looking at players that way means being wary about older free agents. It means trading aging players now who won't be there to lead you where you want to go in two years. It means not spending a ton on a free agent first baseman now when the free agent first baseman you really want is available next offseason.

It means, essentially, building a 2005-type team. In 2005 you had a team that was clearly beginning to reload. Little did we know all of that team's powder would be shot by the end of the next season, but still, moving the needle back to respectability was enough for 2005.

Remember, injuries or no injuries, this is a team that won 70 games last year. We won more games than that in 2004 under Art Howe. Publicly the club talks about fielding a championship caliber club next season; privately they must know that's a pipe dream.

There are no quick fixes for this mess. Signing one or two free agents is the equivalent of putting lipstick on a pig. Next year isn't The Year.

That doesn't mean 2010 can't be exciting, but we need to respect it for what it is. If we're fortunate, 2010 will be like 2005 all over again, a stepping stone on the way to 2011, like 2005 once was to 2006.

Tyranny of low expectations? Maybe. I just think that's more realistic.

- A.F.O.M.G.