This Week in Mets-Rays: Burrell, Lowe, and Ollie
Hey, y'all. Nails here with the first installment of a regular feature we're launching here at Y2K, "This Week in Mets-Rays" (TWIMR, for all y'all scoring at home). Forty days until pitchers and catchers report so we'll be a little spotty with this feature in the near-term. We'll launch officially when Johan, Kaz, Dioner, and BriSchni show up for work.
Anyway, coming at y'all with our first installment today because it has been a busy week with the Rays closing the deal with Pat Burrell and the Mets' negotiations with Derek Lowe getting serious.
Big hats off to Rays GM Andrew Friedman for signing Burrell to a 2-year / $16mm deal. Kind of amazing when you consider Burrell made $14mm last year, hit for a .875 OPS and is giving up his fielding glove, and the Rays still got him at a bargain. Well, that's this year's OF market for you, lot of talent out there and not a lot of buyers.
Burrell's gonna have a good season for the Rays this year. Pat the Bat got unlucky with a .275 batting average on balls in play, well below his career mark of .304. His line-drive percent was right around his career mark (20.4% in 2008 compared to 21.1% over his career), so he was still hitting the ball hard, it was just getting caught.
In all, that means the Rays have made three major moves this offseason.
They replaced Edwin Jackson (Marcel's projected Fielding-Independent Pitching line of 4.64) in the rotation with David Price (Marcel's projected at 4.16).
They replaced RF Gabe Gross (Rays' RF OPS in 2008 was .771) with Matt Joyce, one of baseball's top power prospects with a project OPS of .819.
And they replaced Uncle Cliffy (.751 OPS) with Burrell and his projected 2009 OPS of .854, which I think is definitely low for a guy who hasn't been that low since 2004 and was unlucky last year.
In other words, the Rays have quietly improved themselves this offseason, even if we ignore the improvements they will get from their extremely young team maturing. Last year's team won 97 games, which over-acheived based on Pythagorean win expectations of 95 wins. Based on their improvements this offseason, repeating a 97-win season seems imminently possible.
Regardless, the AL East will be a heckuva good time to watch this season.
Meanwhile, the Ray's gain was the Mets' principle rival's loss. Compare the Rays' excellent signing of Burrell to the Phillies' idiotic 3-year/$30mm deal to Raul Ibanez. Ibanez is: 5 years older than Burrell, a worse defender (if possible), and a worse hitter.
Which brings us to the Mets.
The latest news from the hot stove is the Mets will not increase their offer to Derek Lowe because they like their #2 option, Ollie Perez. Before we get into how idiotic this logic is, let's look at the Mets' thinking, as reported by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal: "He got married in mid-December, a sign of his growing maturity."
I am going to assume three things:
1. Nobody in the Mets organization actually thinks that is a good reason to sign Oliver Perez. If they do, it's dumber than when Steve Phillips predicted a return to glory for Mo Vaughn because he ate cottage cheese at lunch when they met.
2. The Mets are bluffing about not increasing their offer to Lowe.
3. Nobody in the Mets front office actually thinks Perez is an acceptable substitute for Lowe.
All of us on this blog knows what Ollie brings to the table: He has the potential to be absolutely lights out. Or he can suck. Other than blind hope in potential, there is no reason to think Ollie is going to pull it all together this season.
According to projections, Lowe is worth two more wins per season over Perez. The always excellent fangraphs.com has done an excellent look at the 2009 Phillies vs. Mets matchup, which I highly recommend to all of you.
Assuming Lowe to the Mets, fangraphs predicts the Mets are two games better than the Phillies. In other words, another great race between these two teams which could go either way but slightly favors the Mets. And if we replce Lowe with Perez in those projectionss, our entire edge is completely wiped away.
So, memo to Jeff and Omar: Sign Derek Lowe.
- Nails
Anyway, coming at y'all with our first installment today because it has been a busy week with the Rays closing the deal with Pat Burrell and the Mets' negotiations with Derek Lowe getting serious.
Big hats off to Rays GM Andrew Friedman for signing Burrell to a 2-year / $16mm deal. Kind of amazing when you consider Burrell made $14mm last year, hit for a .875 OPS and is giving up his fielding glove, and the Rays still got him at a bargain. Well, that's this year's OF market for you, lot of talent out there and not a lot of buyers.Burrell's gonna have a good season for the Rays this year. Pat the Bat got unlucky with a .275 batting average on balls in play, well below his career mark of .304. His line-drive percent was right around his career mark (20.4% in 2008 compared to 21.1% over his career), so he was still hitting the ball hard, it was just getting caught.
In all, that means the Rays have made three major moves this offseason.
They replaced Edwin Jackson (Marcel's projected Fielding-Independent Pitching line of 4.64) in the rotation with David Price (Marcel's projected at 4.16).
They replaced RF Gabe Gross (Rays' RF OPS in 2008 was .771) with Matt Joyce, one of baseball's top power prospects with a project OPS of .819.
And they replaced Uncle Cliffy (.751 OPS) with Burrell and his projected 2009 OPS of .854, which I think is definitely low for a guy who hasn't been that low since 2004 and was unlucky last year.
In other words, the Rays have quietly improved themselves this offseason, even if we ignore the improvements they will get from their extremely young team maturing. Last year's team won 97 games, which over-acheived based on Pythagorean win expectations of 95 wins. Based on their improvements this offseason, repeating a 97-win season seems imminently possible.
Regardless, the AL East will be a heckuva good time to watch this season.
Meanwhile, the Ray's gain was the Mets' principle rival's loss. Compare the Rays' excellent signing of Burrell to the Phillies' idiotic 3-year/$30mm deal to Raul Ibanez. Ibanez is: 5 years older than Burrell, a worse defender (if possible), and a worse hitter.
Which brings us to the Mets.
The latest news from the hot stove is the Mets will not increase their offer to Derek Lowe because they like their #2 option, Ollie Perez. Before we get into how idiotic this logic is, let's look at the Mets' thinking, as reported by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal: "He got married in mid-December, a sign of his growing maturity."I am going to assume three things:
1. Nobody in the Mets organization actually thinks that is a good reason to sign Oliver Perez. If they do, it's dumber than when Steve Phillips predicted a return to glory for Mo Vaughn because he ate cottage cheese at lunch when they met.
2. The Mets are bluffing about not increasing their offer to Lowe.
3. Nobody in the Mets front office actually thinks Perez is an acceptable substitute for Lowe.
All of us on this blog knows what Ollie brings to the table: He has the potential to be absolutely lights out. Or he can suck. Other than blind hope in potential, there is no reason to think Ollie is going to pull it all together this season.According to projections, Lowe is worth two more wins per season over Perez. The always excellent fangraphs.com has done an excellent look at the 2009 Phillies vs. Mets matchup, which I highly recommend to all of you.
Assuming Lowe to the Mets, fangraphs predicts the Mets are two games better than the Phillies. In other words, another great race between these two teams which could go either way but slightly favors the Mets. And if we replce Lowe with Perez in those projectionss, our entire edge is completely wiped away.
So, memo to Jeff and Omar: Sign Derek Lowe.
- Nails
posted by A Friend of Mr. Glass' at 9:33 AM
3 Comments:
Other than blind hope in potential, there is no reason to think Ollie is going to pull it all together this season.
I have been looking for any kind of support for this. But isn't it a fact that most hard throwing lefties come into their own right around the age of 28?
Players improve in increments, not magically over night because they turn 28 or get married. I'm open to the idea that 28 is when lefties peaked (I'd always been under the impression hitters peak at 27 and pitchers at 30, but could be wrong). Indeed, Marcel's projects Perez at a 4.52 fielding-independent pitching line, which is an improvement over his 2008 production of 4.68. There is, however, no reason to think he is going to magically pull it all together and become as good as Derek Lowe (3.67 FIP projected) except for blind faith in the power of 28 and/or marriage.
its not blind faith. its the idea that pitchers get better around the age of OP. And he is a guy that has needed to show his maturity can match his talent.
Faith in a trend of when players peak is not misplaced.
Also getting married is most def a sign of maturity.
neither are a guarantee... but very few things are. They are both reason to believe that OP will reach his potential during this upcoming contract
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