14 is the Infuriatingest Number

The good times are going and the good vibes are flowing at Old Shea these days. The Mets, winners of 9 of their last 10 and 12 of their last 15, have played consistently solid baseball in the second half of the season (really, since Jerry Manuel took over).

Today they find themselves with a 2.5-game lead in the NL East over the hated Phillies, and 14 games over .500.

I should be happy, but I'm not. Honestly, 14 games over .500 sends chills down my spine.

It's the same number of games we finished over .500 in 1998. There was a time that final week when we were 19 games over .500, but a 5-game losing streak against the lowly Montreal Expos and the haughty Atlanta Braves to close out the season put the kibosh on our playoff hopes (as most of you will remember, one win in those final 5 games would have sent us to the playoffs).

And it's the same number of games we finished over .500 in 2007. For those of you just checking in, last year was a one-for-the-ages reminder of just how valuable finishing 14 games over .500 is.

In the words of my high school soccer coach, finishing 14 games over .500 is like kissing your sister. Fourteen games over .500, 88 wins, is consistently good enough to rip your heart out of your gut.

Now I grant you, more important than sheer number of games over .500 is winning percentage; and in fairness, the Mets' winning percentage (.555) would lead to a 90-win season, the golden, oft-cited number of wins that usually leads to October baseball.

Sure we're 14 games over .500, and yes, we're riding high right now. As I said the other day, you have to allow yourself to enjoy the good times when they come; baseball would be more torment than fun if you didn't.

So the Mets should take some satisfaction in how they've reversed their fortunes; they're playing great ball, even if last night wasn't the best example. But the team needs to keep going; they need to remember that 14 games over .500 rarely nets anything more than a "thanks for playing, see you next year".

And so tonight's another big game. We've got Johan going, they've got Roy Oswalt. It's a great pitching match-up; right now though I'd take our team against any starter in the league.

Ain't that the surest sign yet that the good times are going.

* * * * *

The story of the day seems to be the realization that the Yankees probably won't make the playoffs. Nothing like a 14-3 loss to bring reality crashing home.

In years past I would have cringed at the thought of writing the Yankees off, but I don't feel that way anymore.

It started some time last season, when I confidently wrote in July or August that the Yankees wouldn't win the division.

That didn't make me some sort of genius; the Red Sox had something like a 10-game lead in the division at the time. But it did signal a shift in my thinking about the Yankees.

For a solid decade there they were the team that always got the bounces, that always found itself on the right side of fate. To some it was aura and mystique, for others it was just talent.

Aura and mystique went out the window in 2004; 2004 proved that the Yankees, like every other team out there (hello Steve Bartman, 1978 Red Sox, Yadier Molina), could endure a crushing, improbable defeat. Had it ever happened before? If it had I don't know when.

Today the Yankees sit 10.5 games out of first place, so kiss the division good-bye. I don't care what happened with the Mets last year, the Yankees aren't going to overcome that. The Rays have played excellent baseball wire-to-wire; no reason to think that'll change.

And in the wild card, they're 6 games back of the Red Sox and the Twins. One team maybe they could overcome, but two is tough. They're not buried, it could still happen, but the Yankees are going to have to go on some sort of insane run to do it.

If they don't, it'll be the greatest moment yet in this Curse-filled world. Here's hoping.

- A.F.O.M.G.