Y2K Mets First-Half Grades -- Not-Hitters

Johan Santana
Performance: 3.52 FIP (for those not familiar with FIP, or "Fielding Independent Pitching," it's more or less ERA with other defensive factors taken out. Better or "actual" definition here. 2008 leaders here.)
Grade: B. The won-loss record doesn't concern us, and he's been pretty good otherwise. But even before last night's abysmal start in Cincy, there were warning signs on the horizon. His metrics have continued to slip during the first half, and not by just a little; we're talking about going from a 5.21 K/BB ratio in 2006 to 4.52 in 2007 to 3.05 thus far in '08. One might call that precipitous if one weren't scared shitless about the consequences of signing such a player to a 6-year contract. But still. I shouldn't say I'm that worried, because I'm not; as everyone who's attempted to acquire him in my fantasy league has heard, Johan is a second-half pitcher, and I fully expect him to come around and put up some dominating numbers down the stretch.

John Maine
Performance: 3.93 FIP
Grade: B-. Can't shake this high-pitch-count bullshit, but for all of that, the fielding-independent numbers think he's actually throwing a fair bit better than he did in 2007 (4.18 FIP). Still, has stayed healthy, and is on pace for more than 200 innings of better-than-average performance, so he hasn't exactly been a total bust. Could be doing a lot more.

Oliver Perez
Performance: 5.46 FIP
Grade: C-. Here's the precipitous drop we were looking for earlier. My God, no. This is a textbook example of how not to pitch in a contract year, which kind of endears me to the guy. He's not even sane enough to lock himself up a Carl Pavano-type of deal. What a dude. As mentioned previously, his control has gone completely in the tank, and the team has resorted to Soviet-style psyops to get him ready for each start. Again, has stayed healthy, but that means a lot less when you're getting bombed two out of three outings.

Mike Pelfrey
Performance: 3.69 FIP
Grade: A-. Another disappointing showing from Pelfrey, once the Mets' ace of the future, as the kid started the year on an awful 2-6 run and never ... wait, what the hey? Who changed the reel when I wasn't looking? Someone behind the curtain up and went made ol' Mike a Top-30 starter during the first half, a guy who never gives up home runs (second best in MLB at HR/9 with 0.33, behind only Oakland's Dana Eveland at 0.32) and gets groundball outs when he needs them. We'll see if that sinker keeps sinking and his control stays consistent, but if so, the Mets have their revelation of the season.

Pedro Martinez
Performance: 5.29 FIP
Grade: D-. Hasn't been quite as bad as his raw ERA would suggest since returning from his lengthy DL stint, but 45 innings of truly crappy pitching isn't going to pass in any class this side of Harvard Business School. If you can forgive the armchair psychoanalysis for a second, his opening-day injury might have put the Mets into a mental tailspin from which it took quite a while to recover. Has not been anything like what he needs to be.

Nelson Figueroa
Performance: 4.20 FIP
Grade: B+. Bless his heart. So much better and easier to root for than the Brian Lawrence/Jorge Sosa debacle of '07 that I can't even begin to discuss it.

Billy Wagner
Performance: 2.70 FIP
Grade: A-. Unfathomably hot early, cooled down somewhat as of late, All-Star Game anti-hero, if not on the level of Dan Uggla. For all everyone's bitching, exactly what you want from an Ace Closer; no more, no less. We could do a lot, lot, lot, lot worse.

Aaron Heilman
Performance: 4.06 FIP
Grade: C-. Speak of the Devil. Again, here's a great example of how ERA simply isn't the most useful tool for evaluating performances. Heilman's ERA has ballooned from 3.03 in 2007 to 4.97 thus far in 2008, which looks like the end of the world. But his FIP has stayed much more in the reasonable range, climbing only up from 3.86 last year. After four straight campaigns of sub-.300 BABIPs, that number has climbed to .321 in '08, which isn't out of the realm of the ordinary but still means he's been getting slightly unlucky. He's striking out a ton more batters thus far as well (9.95 K/9 from 6.59), but the 21 BB in 50 IP have been the killer. Then again, six of those walks came in his first five appearances, the ones early in April when we wanted to send him on the first train to Tartarus. He's also had his fair share of simply bad games, outings where walks haven't been the problem; where he's just sucked. The good news is that there seems to be plenty of room for improvement.

Duaner Sanchez
Performance: 3.76 FIP
Grade: B. Solid, but gets a boost for successfully avoiding the city's buses and elevated trains. Something's going to hit him again eventually; let's hope it's a kid on a skateboard or a bird. Anything with hollow bones would do just fine.

Pedro Feliciano
Performance: 4.43 FIP
Grade: C. ERA sez he's doing better than last year, but ERA is, of course, wrong. His strikeout and walk rates are steady, but he's allowing more hits than last year, including more home runs (5) already than he allowed in all of 2007 (3). He hasn't been nearly as good as in the past.

Scott Schoeneweis
Performance: 4.84 FIP
Grade: C-. So very interesting. Has a 2.63 ERA in nearly 40 IP, which sounds like exactly the thing you'd want from a middle reliever. Except not. He's walking fewer guys than last year while also striking out even fewer, which is the sort of thing you can get away with when your BABIP is a notably low .238. An obvious second-half collapse candidate.

Joe Smith
Performance: 3.77 FIP
Grade: B. Here's a guy actually helping the team. Almost 40 innings thrown and his walk rate is down down down. His BABIP is pretty low too, at .243, but you'd expect that more from a groundball specialist. Indeed, if you check out his GB/FB ratio (which is 4.11), that's the second-best mark among all MLB relievers, and easily the best among the crop of guys who have thrown as many innings as he has. (Guys like Sean Green, Chad Bradford, Jamey Wright and Cla Meredith are in the tier below him.) Having a guy who can come in and get the GIDP is huge, and Joe's a big asset moving forward.

Claudio Vargas
Performance: 4.39 FIP
Grade: C. Another of Omar's former Montreal cronies. Nothing to worry about here.

Jerry Manual
Performance: 18-9
Grade: A. Gangster.

Omar Minaya
Performance: Has to make the tough decisions.
Grade: D. Left the Mets old and injury-prone, with no in-house solutions short of rushing Fernando Martinez to the show, which would not be advisable. Nick Evans? Chris Aguila? Tatis? We'll also pretend that Andy Phillips didn't get a start not too long ago. I'm rooting hard for Argenis Reyes, but if he's anything other than an Anderson Hernandez clone, he has yet to show it. Same thing with Figueroa; great guy, great story, I yell my head off whenever I see him on the screen, but plopping a Mexican league vet into the starting rotation doesn't exactly smack of good planning. Meanwhile, Val Pascucci is hitting .295/.418/.563 with 18 HR down in New Orleans, and he hasn't gotten a sniff yet. Go figure.

The Castillo thing has been beaten to death for good reason. Picking up Angel Pagan was a perfectly fine move that might have worked out better, but only as cover against the crappiness of giving Moises Alou $8 million and the keys to the season. Trot Nixon looks done, and meanwhile, Omar feels the need to showboat about how much the Mets don't need Barry Bonds. It's your funeral, fella.