The Joba Decision: Uh Oh

I had never bet on a baseball game in my entire life... until Tuesday night:

Blue Jays (Halladay) (+105)

@

Yankees (Chamberlain).


The best pitcher in the American League, an underdog, against a pitcher on a 70 pitch pitch-count making what may be the most anticipated/controversial debut of a generation.

...................

What the Yankees are doing with Joba Chamberlain would be the most obvious decision you could make if the Yankees were any other team in baseball.

If Joba is a front-line prospect and a future number 1 starter, than you make him a starter. Whether you decide to do it before the season or during the season to me doesn't really matter.

Either way, you are going to limit his pitches and protect his arm. You are going to build his confidence with the hope that in a year or two he can become the young ace that you had always envisioned.

But these are the NEW YORK YANKEES.



They are still run by a loud mouth, painful on the eye, man with the last name of Steinbrenner.

They are still the team that will get called out after one bad month, that will completely flip the switch on two young arms after 6 weeks and still MUST make the playoffs.

To the Yankee faithful, moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation is not about developing a dominant starter. It is about losing the game's best setup man.


...............

The Yankeees don't develop talent. Or let me say this another way. They don't depend on developing talent to succeed.

When they called up Robinson Cano and Chien Ming Wang in 2005 there were ZERO expectations. The team was struggling and Brian Cashman decided to take a shot on a couple of young kids.

But two weeks earlier, 6 Yankee fans could have named either of those guys.

Joba Chamberlain is arguably the team's biggest star. Ok, he is not A-Rod or Jeter. But is there a guy on the team that creates more buzz than Joba?

I mean how many guys are so easily identified by one name.

Pedro, Manny, Joba.



Today, Joba is thrown into the definition of a no-win situation.

If he struggles as a starter, this decision will be questioned forever. How can you give up on a dominant setup man/closer of the future when bullpen has become so important to modern baseball?

If he is great, its because he is supposed to be great. He is Joba. He throws hard and shows emotion.


.............

I think this move is a terrible one...For the Yankees.

I bet against the Yankees last night because I knew I would see 6 innings of Yankee bullpen. And the Yankee bullpen is flat out bad.

Kyle Farnsworth, Latroy Hawkins, Edwar Ramirez are now the main setup man. These are the guys that people know. These guys just aren't good.

The Yankees are going to lose more games in the 6th-8th inning than most teams in baseball. Without question they have the worst middle relief in their division, which is also arguably the most talented offensive decision in the game.

And what's going to happen the first time Kyle Farnsworth blows a lead in the eighth?

So the pressure on these guys will be immense. The Yankees are asking average relievers to fill the role of the most dominant setup man in the game.


..............


And then there is Joba Chamberlain, the starter.

How many innings will they possibly throw this guy this season? The Yankees would protect his arm with the secret service if they could for three reasons.

1. He is their ace of the future
2. With the initial failures of Kennedy and Hughes, they need Chamberlain to be great to justify ever using young talent again.
3. They can not get this guy injured. God forbid this guy breaks a toe nail and all of a sudden, the second guessers have all the ammo they need to question the midseason move to the rotation. And then hell breaks loose.

So in 2008, the Yankees and their very loyal new millenium fans are not even going to see the full Joba Chamberlain. They are going to see a guy who never throws more than 100 pitches and probably never goes more than six innings.

And two more negatives will come from Joba the starter.

1. The newly depleted bullpen will be overworked, forced to pitch 4 innings every five days.

2. If Joba is throwing 98-99 mph over one or two innings, what is he throwing over 5 innings?

I was always so amazed when John Smoltz was converted to closer and all of a sudden he was throwing literally 100MPH.



Through out his career he threw 94-95 MPH, but when he needed to throw an inning of a game he could really turn it on.

Is Joba going to over-exert himself and get hurt? Or is he going to be a 93-95mph guy when he is a big league starter?


...............


There is simply too much pressure on any and everyone in the Yankee organization with this decision to move Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen in the middle of the season.

A first year manager, a gm in the last year of his contract, and a 22-year old country boy from Nebraska with a giant bullseye on their back.

The Yankees don't accept losing.

Yet they made a decision that in the short term makes them a worse ball club.

Chamberlain can not be anything short of great, otherwise people will question the decision.

The bullpen cannot be anything short of as good, otherwise people will question the decision.

And the Yankees cannot do anything less than make the playoffs, otherwise people will question the decision.

There is simply too much that can go wrong. For a 28-30 team that needs to make the playoffs to meet expectations, this team is simply set for failure.

And Joba will be smack in the middle of the controversy.

This is going to get really interesting.


...............


Couple side notes:

1. How awful is Hillary Clinton? Even my dad hates her and he doesn't hate anything except for traffic around the Lincoln Tunnel. Her performance on Tuesday night can only be rivaled by those of Armando Benitez.

2. Nice job by Pedro. Quality start, threw hard, looked fluid. I'll take it. Glad throwing him out there for the 6th didn't backfire.


Vaya,
sip


(Pics courtesy of nymag.com, about.com, scout.com)