Halfway There, Getting Nowhere
Eighty-one games in and we're 40-41. Not exactly where we expected our boys to sit at the halfway point, is it?
I know it's not what I expected, but in retrospect it's easy to see this team's flaws. The lack of hitting, the age. On that level, it's easy to see why things have gone so middlingly. Half the time Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran can carry us. The other half of the time they can't. And so we go and we, uh, "moonwalk" back and forth playing .500 ball.
What should we expect from here? Needless to say that at 3 games out we're within striking distance of first place.
But we need to look at this situation practically; we've been a .500 and under team for a majority of the season. I can't even remember the last time we had a meaningful winning streak, nor can I remember the last time I felt like this team had any momentum.
We win a few games and then we lose a few games, and when it's over we're back where we began. We're halfway through the season and essentially we're right where we started. The Phillies lose 8 of 10 and we gain 1.5 games. We win one game 15-6, then we lose the next 9-0.
* * * * *
Can history tell us anything about where we stand? Here's how recent Mets teams fared on June 30:
But beyond that, in my opinion this season's closest cousin is 2004.
2004 might be the worst season in recent Mets history, if for no other reason than that we traded perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball for a bag of balls.
We did so because of circumstances that are instantly recognizable to Mets fans in 2008. Essentially, ownership looked at the standings and thought the Mets had a chance.
They thought the Braves (37-40) were as bad as their record, when there was no reason they should have been. The Braves went on to win 96 games that year, and the Mets, with Victor Zambrano leading the way, finished 25 games out of first.
The point was, the Mets were playing significantly above their level at the midway point, and the Braves were playing significantly below their level.
In 2008 the equation's a little different. I still believe the Mets are playing below their level, but not significantly so. In my estimation, the Mets are good enough to win about as many games as they did last year (88).
The problem is I also believe the Phillies, like the 2004 Braves, are playing significantly below their level. I don't expect them to finish with 96 wins, but I fully expect them to finish, say, 20 games over .500, 91 wins call it.
But maybe Met ownership sees it differently. Maybe Jeff Wilpon gets to feeling the Mets are one starter away from launching a pennant chase for the ages again, and maybe Dan Warthen sees something in Brandon Backe that makes Fernando Martinez expendable.
It's possible I feel this way because I've come to expect only the worst from this collection of Mets players (and from Mets ownership), and because of my perception of the Phillies' toughness and fortitude.
Not for nothing, but the Phils were 41-40 at this time last year, 6 games out of first, their situation looking resoundingly worse than ours does now. History, unfortunately last year, fortunately (?) this year, proves 81 games isn't everything.
The point is, with this collection of players, how much more can we justifiably expect?
* * * * *
For my money, this weekend's 4-game set with the Phillies is the make-or-break point of the year. It's when we either leap over this mental hurdle that's been built up or we don't. I think the team needs something, finally, to make them believe they can win again.
If we can't win now we won't win at all this year. Ryan Church is back, Jose Reyes is playing like himself again, and that person wearing No. 21 has done something with Carlos Delgado's corpse.
The time to make a move is now. Too often in the past year the Mets have folded when their opportunity presented itself.
This week they play two good teams and they either continue that trend or reverse it. Stay tuned.
- A.F.O.M.G.
I know it's not what I expected, but in retrospect it's easy to see this team's flaws. The lack of hitting, the age. On that level, it's easy to see why things have gone so middlingly. Half the time Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran can carry us. The other half of the time they can't. And so we go and we, uh, "moonwalk" back and forth playing .500 ball.
What should we expect from here? Needless to say that at 3 games out we're within striking distance of first place.
But we need to look at this situation practically; we've been a .500 and under team for a majority of the season. I can't even remember the last time we had a meaningful winning streak, nor can I remember the last time I felt like this team had any momentum.
We win a few games and then we lose a few games, and when it's over we're back where we began. We're halfway through the season and essentially we're right where we started. The Phillies lose 8 of 10 and we gain 1.5 games. We win one game 15-6, then we lose the next 9-0.
* * * * *
Can history tell us anything about where we stand? Here's how recent Mets teams fared on June 30:
- 2002: 40-40; 4th place; 10.5 GB
- 2003: 35-46; 5th place; 16.5 GB
- 2004: 37-39; 3rd place; 3 GB
- 2005: 39-39; 5th place; 8 GB
- 2006: 47-32: 1st place; 10.5 GU
- 2007: 46-33; 1st place; 4 GU
- 2008: 40-41; 3rd place; 3 GB
But beyond that, in my opinion this season's closest cousin is 2004.
2004 might be the worst season in recent Mets history, if for no other reason than that we traded perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball for a bag of balls.
We did so because of circumstances that are instantly recognizable to Mets fans in 2008. Essentially, ownership looked at the standings and thought the Mets had a chance.
They thought the Braves (37-40) were as bad as their record, when there was no reason they should have been. The Braves went on to win 96 games that year, and the Mets, with Victor Zambrano leading the way, finished 25 games out of first.
The point was, the Mets were playing significantly above their level at the midway point, and the Braves were playing significantly below their level.
In 2008 the equation's a little different. I still believe the Mets are playing below their level, but not significantly so. In my estimation, the Mets are good enough to win about as many games as they did last year (88).
The problem is I also believe the Phillies, like the 2004 Braves, are playing significantly below their level. I don't expect them to finish with 96 wins, but I fully expect them to finish, say, 20 games over .500, 91 wins call it.
But maybe Met ownership sees it differently. Maybe Jeff Wilpon gets to feeling the Mets are one starter away from launching a pennant chase for the ages again, and maybe Dan Warthen sees something in Brandon Backe that makes Fernando Martinez expendable.
It's possible I feel this way because I've come to expect only the worst from this collection of Mets players (and from Mets ownership), and because of my perception of the Phillies' toughness and fortitude.
Not for nothing, but the Phils were 41-40 at this time last year, 6 games out of first, their situation looking resoundingly worse than ours does now. History, unfortunately last year, fortunately (?) this year, proves 81 games isn't everything.
The point is, with this collection of players, how much more can we justifiably expect?
* * * * *
For my money, this weekend's 4-game set with the Phillies is the make-or-break point of the year. It's when we either leap over this mental hurdle that's been built up or we don't. I think the team needs something, finally, to make them believe they can win again.
If we can't win now we won't win at all this year. Ryan Church is back, Jose Reyes is playing like himself again, and that person wearing No. 21 has done something with Carlos Delgado's corpse.
The time to make a move is now. Too often in the past year the Mets have folded when their opportunity presented itself.
This week they play two good teams and they either continue that trend or reverse it. Stay tuned.
- A.F.O.M.G.
posted by A Friend of Mr. Glass' at 1:37 PM
4 Comments:
Good post.
IF (and it's a big IF) we are one player away, it's gotta be a left fielder that can hit. No, not a Ken Griffey or another broken down has been, but a legitimate left fielder who can bat behind Beltran and spread that lineup out.
Reyes
Church
Wright
Beltran
BIG BAT
Delgado
Schneider/Castro
Castillo
Pitcher
if you somehow found this mysterious person whom you can't name, we'd have nothing left in our minor league system and we'd still have 4 outs at the end of the lineup.
pass
unless it were barry bonds. then our farm system wd be the same.
mets are idiots.
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