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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Wake Up and Smell the Coffin, Mike Lupica

(Note: Cheddar pops wise about the game last night immediately following this post from A.F.O.M.G.)

Just read Mike Lupica's interview with Omar Minaya. Interesting stuff. A lot of it fair, a lot of it well-reasoned.

But one part of it sticks in my craw. Like, really sticks in my craw.

"Unfortunately right now a lot of guys are underperforming," Omar Minaya said. "By that I mean they're not reaching the level of past performance. That's a collective thing. A team thing. It's why we're two or three games under .500 in the standings. But how many days over the past few seasons have we had a record like that? Not many. It's why I believe we're going to come out of this."
If you're Mike Lupica, how do you let Omar Minaya get away with that statement? How do you let him hang his hat on that logic? You can look it up. Since this day last season, when the Mets were 32-17, the team has gone 80-83.

How many days have we been two or three games under .500 the past few seasons? We're two or three games under .500 for the last season, and sorry, 2006 doesn't count anymore.

And that's the key. That's the reality everyone in this organization needs to wake up to. 2006 -- glorious, wonderful, halcyon 2006 -- doesn't count anymore, not for these players, not for these fans.

The story of this team is the story 2007, nothing before. In 2007 we were fed the same promise Omar delivered to Lupica yesterday -- that this team has too much talent to fail.

But this team has been failing for a long time now. It failed last year. It's failing this year. It's failed for 16-err-3 games straight.

* * * * *

Some part of me sympathizes with Omar. The Mets were so good in 2006 and so good at the outset of 2007, that when the tides turned it was almost as if somebody had flipped a switch. It's like the team died overnight.

That reality is very difficult to comprehend, and I think deep down all of us are still clinging to the idea that somehow the switch will flip back on and it will be heady times all over again.

But every day that passes, and every lackadaisical effort that comes with it (no offense to last night), seems to confirm that the dream is dead. It's not like this fear snuck up on us. We've openly contemplated on this site whether the team's best days were behind it the day the calendar turned to 2007.

I mean, this team was designed to win in 2006. It played on fumes in 2007, and this year, Johan Santana or no Johan Santana, it's proved to be playing on a prayer that Delgado will mash dongs like he once did or that Alou will stay healthy for, you know, more than a pathetic 14 games.

They say the pitching's too good to fail. They say the lineup's better than this. They say what they want to say but the bottom line is a team, Omar Minaya, that's two or three games under .500 for now and for a long time running.

* * * * *

I hate to be so fatalistic. I want to believe like Omar does. Somewhere I've got that same thought in my mind that I described earlier, that there's a switch out there waiting to be flipped and when it does, watch out.

But we've been patient. We've given the team time to find that switch, and over and over it's come up empty.

And so it is that management needs to take a good long look at this team. They decided not to can Willie Randolph, as we and others had hoped, and so now there's a new deadline: July 31. They have to take the attitude that the team has two months to prove its worth. If it's still stuck in this rut by the trade deadline, it has to be gutted.

Fans can stomach a losing team this year if there's a connection with the players or if they have reason to believe next year might be better. The first one is shot; the fans hate this team.

Unfortunately the second one's shot, too. Our farm system being what it is, there's no basis for believing next year might be better, unless you want to assume the Mets sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, and that they sign a whole lot of other people, too.

If this team continues to tread water, they have to do something.

* * * * *

But maybe they won't, maybe it'll be more of the same. They've shown an inclination to keep this group intact before.

But, hey, maybe I am being too fatalistic. I mean, tell me we didn't win 5-3 last night. One game winning streak, woot, woot! Say it with me now: turning pointâ„¢!

- A.F.O.M.G.

5 Comments:

Blogger Ceetar said...

I don't know. Of course you can't count 2006. But guess what? You can't count 2007 either. It's over. In fact, you can't even count 2008. All that matters, is now. If the Mets go out and win 70 more games this season, does it matter that there was a stretch of 160 games where they looked mediocre? It ain't over till it's over. Does it matter that they played mostly average if they win 11 of their last 22 games, culiminating with a game 7 win in the World Series?

3:43 PM  
Blogger A Friend of Mr. Glass' said...

You're right on some level, Ceetar -- if the Mets win 70 more games this season, no one will care about this stretch to begin the season. The only problem is that 163 games stands as a pretty significant body of evidence, and it sure does tend against the Mets winning 70 more games this season.

By this point, this collection of players hasn't played to its "potential" for a statistically significant period of time. Good teams have mediocre (and even bad) weeks or maybe even a mediocre/bad month here or there, but "good" teams don't have mediocre years. If they did, we wouldn't call them good, we'd call them mediocre. And that's just what the Mets, all 80 wins and 83 losses of them, have been over the last year.

I'm not saying this Mets team can't win 70 more games this season, I'm just saying they haven't shown us anything in the past 163 games to make us think that's likely. Instead, what the past 163 games ahve shown us is that in order for them to win 70 more games this season, they're going to have stumble upon that ever elusive switch I wrote about.

4:16 PM  
Blogger bob kelly said...

Minaya, a Steve Phillips disciple, is now saying the same thing about past performance that Phillips was uttering in 2002-03. One thing that never entered this thinking was that players age and players, as they age, breakdown.

If we went by Omar's (and Steve's) logic, Delgado would be on pace to hit 35-100-.285. Castillo would have two good knees, hitting .310 and playing Gold Glove defense. And Moises Alou would be the player he was when he was 25...sorry, he is where he was at 25---on the DL.

Omar is using, almost word-for-word, the defense Phillips used to justify his building of an aging, brittle team (sound familiar?) He also seems to emulating his mentor by going for it with an aging, brittle team by gutting the farm system along the way.

Past performance might repeat itself---Phillips was gone eight months after he (or the Wilpons) canned Valentine.

4:37 PM  
Blogger worndownboyboy said...

WOW.
Reyes defintely needs a shrink at this point..He makes an error or gets picked off like what 7 games in a row? I hope he is not this generation's Mackey Sasser.
I really dislike this year's bench...
How do we not have a guy that came come in and contribute in the OF...
Why is Easley getting sooo many at bats? Why is he still freakin here!!?!?
Why not let the young boy play (Fernando) Is he hurt?
I guess we need to pray that Tatis gets his mojo back from 8.9 years ago.... cuz this evans kid looks like a deer in headlights since he got to shea.
But back to the subject at hand, they have assembled a team of guys who could give a fukless about winning or losing...3/4s of the team does not ever seem to play hard. Our pitching is still trying to figure itself out but the hitters been the biggest disapointment. Beltran owes the Wilpons some money back, as does delgado and Moises. I dont see a viable dude in the farm system to take Delgado's spot.
argggggggghhh

5:42 PM  
Blogger Ceetar said...

you're right, that's a big stretch of games. of course, it's technically two different teams, which i think you have to take into account. Match up the end of 2006(including playoffs) and the beginning of 2007 for David Wright and his numbers look pretty bad for a couple of months worth of games. However both years were good years.

Only time will really tell I guess. I just don't want to base my feelings on this team on any part of 2007, not while there is still so much of that is 2007. Maybe when the numbers are closer to half 2008 and half 2007 I'll feel a little differently.

12:51 PM  

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