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Friday, May 02, 2008

Team of Rivals

Hotlanta

So, is John Smoltz the manager of the Braves? Does he draw up the lineup cards behind Bobby Cox's back? Is he the one behind those sharp new blue alternate unis the Bravos have been sporting? I ask only because reports surfaced Thursday that Smoltz is apparently going to return from his DL stint as a reliever, not a pitcher, and contrary to the wishes of his manager. Check out the story if you didn't see it; it's rather unusual.

The best part is that John-John broke the story by texting a reporter from the Atlanta newspaper. The 21st century highly approves, Smoltzy! Not to mention the Dirty South hip-hop community. Next time we need a strikeout, we know who to 2-way.

Smoltz says his shoulder hurts too much for him to go as a starter, and that he can go as a reliever only. This hasn't shown up in the numbers yet, what with his 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as a rotation member, but the guy's 40 years old, and knows his body -- if he says he can't do it, I suppose you have to believe him. The skipper might not be on board yet -- ("In order to win big, John needs to be in the rotation," Cox said.) -- but that's only because Smoltz hasn't had a chance to Gchat with him yet. Once he explains with a pix msg, we should be good. You've got to preserve the health of your best players.

Wait, I think that's Hank Steinbrenner in the far corner calling Smoltz an idiot. Yep, that's him. Just ignore it. From the Mets' perspective, though, anything that dents the Atlanta rotation is all gravy.

Two new Braves you might not know enough about:
  • Jair Jurrjens, 22-year-old SP; came over from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria trade; 86th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball Prospectus before the season; throws a mid-90s fastball, a good curve and an okay change with decent command, though it has improved markedly this season; has always been thought of as a low-ceiling starter, but has looked excellent through his first six-pack of starts in the bigs (3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 28K in 38.1 IP); Keith Hernandez will mispronounce his name somewhere in the vicinity of 50 different ways before all is said and done; likely the Braves' best starter from here on out
  • Brent Lillibridge, 25-year-old SS; they'll likely get rid of Yuni Escobar before this fella, so this is their starter of the future; horrendously elfin, makes Dustin Pedroia look like Morgan Freeman; profiles similarly to Pedroia as a very solid college hitter who dropped in the draft (to Round 4) due to his size and projectibility concerns, but will hit for more power than you'd think; real nice defensively; not the type of baseballer who wants to run into Nails in a back alley when our boy has had a few Miller Lites
Port of Miami

I don't understand HBO. Its economics, I mean. The budget has to be fairly fixed, right? X amount of subscribers paying $Y per month, with those numbers fairly steady, minus your overhead and the contracts with the movie studios that get you the majority of your content. Does everything else then go into the general entertainment budget? I guess what I'm asking is, does the head of HBO's entertainment division then just have a zillion-dollar budget that it can spend on whatever series it wants? If so, how sweet is that job?

At the same time, that can lead to weird decisions, like making a TV movie about the Florida recount in the 2000 presidential election. "Recount," directed by comedy hack Jay Roach and starring way more famous people than you'd think, premiers on May 25, and I can't for the life of me figure out why. I'll watch it; I follow politics closely, and I think it could be funny or interesting.

Here's the thing, though -- there can't be nearly enough people like me to justify, in any meaningful sense, the cost of making this movie. No way. I'm sure there's a lot of chatting in offices, and standing in rooms, and that doesn't make for the most expensive shoot in history, but I don't care what it was -- this is a screaming little vanity project guaranteed to get awful ratings. Even if you included the spillover effects from the media buzz, this thing is a revenue sinkhole. I sure hope these big-name actors and a generally expensive director worked for cheap. Bonus strangeness -- this movie was written by a part-time "Gilmore Girls" actor. Look it up.

Wait, the Marlins aren't in first place anymore? Shocking.

Dukes

We here at Y2K have jonesed ourself into a tizzy this week over a winning team sitting a whopping half-game out of first place. Awesome work. Not being a psychic, a mystic, a paranormal detective or possessing a neural net processor (a learning computer), Cheddar Ben is unable to determine whether or not the players are, in fact, the moral vampires of legend; until SNY comes up with a camera angle that allows us to look into the Mets' souls, we're just going to have to assume that they're not powered by demons or concentrated bitterness.

The booing is retarded, and should stop immediately. If you're a fan, booing isn't your first, second or third move; it's a last resort. It's a move you employ when things are bad, and they don't seem like they could get any worse. Now, maybe I haven't been sufficiently spoiled by a string of three solid seasons, but as far as I can tell, things aren't bad, and have the potential to get a lot better, should the players start playing up to their potential.

Some of the Mets' mistakes are mental, and even sloppy-seeming and those are frustrating. But a fan (i.e., someone who wants to see the team win) might ask him or herself, "Will my reaction hurt or help the team in some way?" There's no one answer to this question -- you might believe that players tune out everything going on in the stands, or that they're motivated by the energy of the crowd night in and night out, or any permutation of the two.

But even if you believed that fans' booing has the ability to shake players out of a rut, you'd still want to be judicious about using it as a tool, simply because booing is unquestionably an interaction that produces diminishing returns over time. Seriously. The first boo to escape a fan's lips is always the loudest, and heard the best; the first cavalcade of boos is jarring, and might actually cause a player or coach to pause in thought; constancy of boos might set a tone; after a certain point, everyone's tuned the shit out. It don't take long to go through these steps.

Which is why booing a winning team in the month of April, a winning team running Raul Casanova and Damion Easley and Endy Chavez on the regular, is fucking retarded, and something a real fan simply would not be doing. Which leads us back to Sip's point that many of the people populating the fans at Shea aren't real fans; they're worse than Yankee fans.

I hate to agree, but what else can you say?

Broad Street

Yeah, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are hitting like Gehrig and Ruth. But. Ryan Howard is still ensconced in his Robby Cano-like early-season coma, Rollins isn't playing, and as bad as I think he is, I also don't think Pedro Feliz is going to be hitting .200 all year, or Shane Victorino .230 for that matter. This team will continue to score runs, and lots of them.

The bullpen, on the other hand, is a completely different kettle of cheese steaks. From top to bottom, the Philly relievers are playing way over their heads, and once they start to act their age and not their shoe size, their team is going to start losing a lot of games. Lots of them. (Setting aside, for a moment, the fact that none of their starting pitchers have missed a turn in the rotation yet. Nice.)

The following Philly relievers have yet to give up a home run -- Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero, Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez. Zero HR allowed in 65 innings on the hill. Lidge and Romero (Romero!) haven't given up an earned run yet. And they're all walking guys, too -- none of the guys I mentioned has a BB/9 below 4.00.

It's smoke and mirrors in Philly at the moment, and that's not a formula for success going forward. (Note: the previous comment does not apply to stage magicians or laser light show operators.)

Beltway

I hear Nick Johnson took a called third strike the other night. What an asshole. His batting average is down to .217. An obvious choker. Yeah, his OBP still might be at .400, which is kind of the point of the entire enterprise, and he's leading the team in RBI, but according to this arbitrary standard of performance I've just determined in my head, he's got warts all over the place. I mean, who takes a called third strike in April? This obvious lack of fire is just killing the team.

Opening Night? Sure, I remember that! After missing the entire year with a broken leg, Johnson came out in his first game back and dumped a ball into the corner for an RBI double. They tried to hold him at first, but the guy steamed around the base and slid into second like a freight train, as if he hadn't just missed 18 months with a Herman Maier-type of injury. Then, in the very next at-bat, ol' Nick gets knocked in by Austin Kearns -- and he gleefully slid in to home as well, just to show he could do it. The crowd went bananas, and the clubhouse was loving it, even Dmitri Young, the guy whose job Johnson took.

But whatever. Sure, he might have loved baseball or played his heart out at some point in the past. Maybe even at most points. But at this precise instant, I've determined he no longer enjoys the game enough to win. I'm a real sensitive dude, and I can suss out subtle gradations in tone and body language and professional intent like that. No problem. It's a talent, and I've got it.

So suck on that, Johnson. I will ride your ass into the ground until you start doing exactly what I want you to do at all times. If I see even a hint of anything suspicious, it won't matter whether we're winning or not -- I've got to stay vigilant, and vigilance entails that I act like a dick to people I ostensibly want to see succeed. It's called being a fan -- and it's what I DO.

5 Comments:

Blogger A Friend of Mr. Glass' said...

"But a fan (i.e., someone who wants to see the team win) might ask him or herself, 'Will my reaction hurt or help the team in some way?' There's no one answer to this question -- you might believe that players tune out everything going on in the stands, or that they're motivated by the energy of the crowd night in and night out, or any permutation of the two."

Traded e-mails with Nails after his piece ran yesterday. Anyone who's played baseball knows how much of the game is confidence. So much of the game is predicated on failure; anyone who's ever said "even the best hitters make an out 7 times out of 10" is aware of that.

To further burden players with boos, or the fear of boos, is insane. I worry about making an out when I play softball. That shit is slow pitch. I can only imagine what it's like for these guys.

Every year, Mets fans identify the team villain. I wrote a post about that before the 2007 season -- about which player would receive what I called the Victor Zambrano treatment (i.e., which player would get the shit booed out of him). Every year, one player inevitably proves himself worthless and becomes a lightning rod for fans' ire. This year though it seems the whole team is on that list.

I get it, everyone's upset about the way last year ended. Do any of these people though honestly think the way to get this team to start playing better is to boo them off the field? You want to call for Willie to be fired? Fine. You want to say the 8th inning should belong to Duaner? Fine. But booing the very sight of Aaron Heilman? I just don't get it.

To somebody else's point, it's one thing to boo a player after he's effed up (although frankly I've never been one for that either) -- it's another thing entirely to boo him preemptively. It's kind of like when Shea started doing the "Jose-Jose-Jose-Jose" song when Reyes came to bat rather than after he'd done something good (speaking of which, it feels like forever since there's been an organic "Jose" chant, doesn't it?). Everything in it's time.

Anyway, great post, Ched.

12:13 PM  
Anonymous Nails said...

As Nails said in the aforementioned exchange of emails yesterday, a major part of the game is also showing up 162 times over the course of 6 months with a killer instinct each and every day.

This team clearly does not have that right now. It thinks everything will inevitably work out in the end. And, frankly, that is the attitude that Cheddar Ben explicitly takes in his piece and the AFOMG and Sip also seem to buy into.

Not necessarily the case guys. Either you drive a stake in the heart of your opponent or they could come back to get even with you. That's true in the 5th inning of a game vs the Nats and it's true over the course of an entire season.

We all were assured they'd learned the lesson of how important showwing up to play each and every day is because of how last season ended. Yet it's increasingly clear that they haven't learned the lesson.

Do the boos make it a little less likely that Heilman pitches well? I don't know. Do the boos let the players know that we expect them to play well and hard each and every day? Absolutely.

Booing excessively hurts the team. I am not condoning it. If you boo taking a strike on a 2-0 count than you can be dismissed as not knowledgable or with unrealistic expectations. But I support fans who are booing appropriately right now. This team needs to understand that the game they are playing that night is the most important game of the season.

And with all due respect to the bloggers on this site, the beat writers who follow this team agree with me that the team lacks a killer instinct and just feels that things will work out in the end. So, Cheddar, do I have a camera into the players' souls? No. But I do have first hand observations of people who have followed baseball for decades and show up in the lockerroom everyday. It might make you feel sophisticated to not feel the way about this team that the masses at Shea do, but we're just responding to the information we receive and the attitude we observe on the field.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-sphow025670844may02,0,7949541.column?track=rss

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2008/05/01/2008-05-01_september_stench_still_reeks_at_shea-1.html

12:53 PM  
Anonymous Nails said...

I am also interested in what Sip, AFOMG, and Cheddar think about what Wagner's been doing the last few days? He clearly thinks the team isn't battling as hard as it should be and he is trying to shake it up. My hat's off to him. Aren't the fans doing the exact same thing?

1:05 PM  
Blogger Cheddar Ben said...

1) I don't buy into the binary choice between "guys who have a killer instinct" and "bums." The 2007 Red Sox took basically the last 3 weeks of the season off, resting guys and setting up their pitching for the playoffs. They let the Yanks get within sniffing distance of the division. This was anything but stomping on their necks, and plenty of media types said it was going to come back to haunt them.

This idea that you have to play each night like it's the playoffs is unrealistic and counterproductive. You want guys to be focused. You want them to play hard. There will be lapses.

2) I'll look it up if I have to, but I'll just state right now that I'm positive that Chicago beat writers declared the 2005 White Sox to be unfit; I know for a fact that the 2006 Cardinals were being slagged all year by the Post-Dispatch, because Albert Pujols holds a grudge to this day. The 2004 Red Sox were not the 2003 "Cowboy Up" team, lacking that team's chemistry, so they had much less of a chance to win. Basically, if a baseball beat writer says something, I immediately believe the opposite; as an appeal to authority, "people who have followed the game for decades and show up in the locker room every day" just doesn't work for me. Sorry, but it doesn't -- you can only be wrong every time before I start noticing.

I'm not saying everything will work out in the end, because 95 percent of the time, it doesn't. It doesn't work out for every team but one every single year, and it isn't because all the other teams weren't good enough or had bad attitudes or secret clubhouse demons that needed to be exorcised. As AFOMG said, this is a game based around failure, and attributing failure to underlying character flaws is a fool's game.

Especially, for the love of God, in APRIL. It is extremely unlikely that the Mets will win the World Series this year; my point is that it is no more unlikely than if they had won four more games and Carlos Delgado had a smile on his face and Carlos Beltran ... I don't know, ran with more joy.

3) Billy Wagner is more of an issue, but I'm going to write about that soon.

1:57 PM  
Blogger A Friend of Mr. Glass' said...

Here's the point. The Mets' 33-17 start in 2007 was no indication that we were the same team we were in 2006. Why are we all so certain a 14-12 start in 2008 means we're the same team we were in 2007?

As for your "killer instinct" point -- I think I read the team has a .170 average with runners in scoring position. When you look at that statistic, do you honestly believe it's that they don't care or that they're not trying or that they don't realize they have a chance to blow a game open? To me there are two far more plausible possibilities -- either they haven't hit their stride yet (which I hope is the case, and frankly what I consider likely) or they're not that good. Time will tell.

I don't completely disagree with you, incidentally. Maybe a shake-up is needed. Maybe Willie's gotta go. Haven't made up my mind yet.

3:41 PM  

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