Y2K 2008 Mets Preview: Bullpen

[Baseball can't start soon enough, and to get you ready for a full season of action, Y2K wants to help you meet the 2008 Mets. We'll break down a roster position each day heading into the opener. Today it's the bullpen, which looked great yesterday. Even Schoenweis. The only way we're going to go 162-0 is if he comes up big.]

Projected closer: Billy Wagner
Age: 36
2007 line: 68.1 IP, 2.64 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 80 K, 22 BB
2008 PECOTA: 65 IP, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 67 K, 22 BB

Projected setup man: Aaron Heilman
Age: 29
2007 line: 86 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 63 K, 20 BB
2008 PECOTA: 70 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 54 K, 23 BB

Projected setup man: Duaner Sanchez
Age: 28
2007 line: did not play
2008 PECOTA: 40 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 30 K, 16 BB

Other projected relievers' 2008 PECOTAs
Pedro Feliciano: 55 IP, 3.43 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 44 K, 24 BB
Matt Wise: 50 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 35 K, 17 BB
Scott Schoenweis: 50 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 32 K, 21 BB
Jorge Sosa: 40 IP, 4.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 69 K, 38 BB
Joe Smith: 30 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 26 K, 27 BB

Discussion

Wagner has to be considered the best closer in the National League. It's true. I'm as big a Takeshi Saito fan as the next guy, but if there's one thing we've learned with Asian pitchers over the years, it's to wait and see if their stuff holds up during the second pass around the league. Kaz Sasaki (formerly of Seattle), Byung-Hun Kim, those guys had multiple-year runs where they were dominant relievers. And then there's what happens when you're a bullshit artist who gets figured out.

Shingo Takatsu, 2004: 2.31 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, second in Rookie of the Year voting
Shingo Takatsu, 2005: 5.20 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, dumped and then signed by (natch) the Mets

For this reason, despite his awesome 2007, I don't think you can say Saito is the best anything yet. (If I were a Red Sox fan, I'd be similarly concerned about Hideki Okajima).

Who else is there? Jose Valverde has a nice campaign out in the desert, but he's alternated good and bad seasons a la Saberhagen for a while now, and is another "Show Me" guy. Trevor Hoffman is still kicking, but he ain't what he once was. Ol' Jason Isringhausen has a perfectly fine comeback year, a nice statistical match with Wagner's, but he's even more of an injury risk and doesn't strike out nearly as many guys. It's possible the Braves' Rafael Soriano will come back from a year on the shelf and start blowing guys away again, in which case he'll be on the same level as Wagner, but that has yet to be determined. The rest of the crop are a bunch of new guys (Kerry Wood, Manny Corpas, Brandon Lyon), hurt guys (Brad Lidge, Eric Gagne) or passable guys who simply aren't as good as Wagner (Chad and Francisco Cordero). The Mets have a competitive advantage with Wagner.

Same thing with Heilman, who for all his one-time moaning about getting into the rotation has turned into a really effective and valuable setup guy. He's not infallible, and doesn't have any of the Joel Zumaya/Joba flair that a setup guy occasionally picks up, but he gets the job done. I'm completely comfortable with him playing a role in big games, which is kind of the test for a reliever. Same thing with Feliciano, who walks guys he should be able to get slightly too often, but is in my opinion one of the most underrated rally killers out there. He was death on lefties once again in 2007 (.168 BAA, 30 K in 28.1 IP) and held his own against right-handers when they were in there (.221 BAA, 1.43 WHIP). Despite Willie getting picky from time to time, he's not a LOOGY; he's a guy who can put in inning-long appearances in the right slots and can be extremely effective. At his salary, he's a steal.

The rest of the Mets' bullpen will depend on how Duaner Sanchez comes back from his taxi ride to the dark side; whether Joe Smith looks more like first-half Broadway Joe or second-half New Orleans McGee; whether Jorge Sosa is as crappy as PECOTA seems to think he'll be; whether Matt Wise is any good whatsoever (I have no insight); whether Scott Schoenweis continues to embarrass himself. I'm only positive one way or the other on the last item (answer: yes).

The Metsies had the second-best ERA in the NL last year from the seventh inning onward, at 3.50, with a better WHIP than the one team ahead of them (1.24 to 1.32 over San Diego, which has a 3.29 ERA). Bullpens are kind of moving targets, but the short and only possible take I can give here is that our relievers were a considerable asset last season, and are lined up to repeat that performance. Good luck to us.