Y2K 2008 Mets Preview: Third Base

[Baseball can't start soon enough, and to get you ready for a full season of action, Y2K wants to help you meet the 2008 Mets. We'll break down a roster position each day heading into the opener. Today it's third base, also known as the "hot" corner. No, kids, it's not named after Mims. Don't be stupid.]

Projected starter: David Wright

Age: 25
2007 line: .325/.416/.546, 81.1 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 693 PA, .305/.395/.541, 69.6 VORP

Backup: Fernando Tatis
Age: Really?
2007 line: Not sure he played
2008 PECOTA: Didn't see this one coming

Discussion

The decline in Wright's projected VORP is entirely attributed to an expected drop in batting average, which PECOTA (and all projection systems, for that matter) regress to the mean simply because it's so unpredictable. In all other regards, Wright is expected to perform just as well as he did in 2007, when he was the best player in the National League. Better than Jimmy Rollins, better than Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez, certainly better than Matt Holiday. If not for the Mets' collapse during the final week of the season, Wright stood a great chance of winning the MVP Award, and anyone interested in laying the Amazin's swoon at his feet (a lack of leadership trope or any dumb shit in that vein) should recall that Wright hit a measly .352 in September.

Moreover, Wright's final numbers were held down by a slow start to the season; he hit .244 with nary a single home run during April, which led to a lot of nonsense about his swing having been ruined by the 2006 Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game. It's a fortuitous type of "adversity" that a player with a .370 OBP has to overcome, but chicks dig the long ball, and he wasn't supplying them. Until he did, getting to the 30-30 plateau and just crushing the ball after last year's break -- .364/.465/.596, 53 walks against 42 strikeouts, everything but the payoff.

Moving forward, we can expect two things. Production-wise, he's as good a bet as any in the game to maintain his value or improve it. By every last account a hard worker, a guy with no real injury risk to speak of with an extremely balanced set of skills, good athleticism and speed ... we said it when he was coming up, and it bears repeating as often as possible -- he's the total package. The defense might not be top-drawer, but it's more than passable, and will likely improve over the next five seasons, at least until Wright hits the athletic downslope of his career. There's no one reason why Rob Neyer chose Wright as the most valuable property in baseball over the next seven years -- there are a baker's dozen of them. (And as A.F.O.M.G. sagely noted, them donuts come at a highly reasonable rate).

Aside from tools and production, it's worth noting there are few guys in the league easier to root for. A comparison to someone like Miguel Cabrera is helpful here. Cabrera probably has a higher upside than Wright -- he's more of a power hitter, and I believe he has the chance to put up some serious Lou Gehrig/Jimmie Foxx-type, .360/.460/.700 years over the next half-decade. The guy has talent to spare. On the other hand, he's a sulking, overweight primadonna already saddled with the "uncoachable" tag. There's at least a chance he spouts a Mo Vaughn gut and cheesy facial hair and Albert Belle's hips pop out from beneath his skin like an "Alien" and his career blows away like so much dope off Tony Montana's desk. Landing on a Jim Leyland-managed club reduces that risk, to be sure, and I'm not really a doubter. Yet on some level, a surly Venezuelan is a surly Venezuelan is a surly Venezuelan.

With Wright, there's seemingly no downside. You're talking about a grounded dude with a million-dollar smile and a winning sense of humor, the very definition of likeable. You're talking about a guy for whom the main risk is becoming too popular, and wearing himself out with non-baseball/baby-kissing/model-dating extracurriculars. You're talking about a guy who can have this exchange with Dontrelle Willis on the set of a commercial shoot:

Willis: Who's one of the toughest pitchers you've faced in the league, man, and why?
Wright: I would say you, but I own you.
[Willis and Ryan Howard crack up]

Now that's funny, even if the D-Train did predict a Phillies-Tigers World Series matchup. With Miguel Cabrera, all things are possible. But unlike that poseur Ray Romano, everyone actually loves David Wright. For good reason. Here's Bill James:

There are a multitude of things to consider in a ballplayer that make him worth his salary and an asset to a team. Who would James most want to see on his dream team? "David Wright," he answers without thinking. "Because he does everything I like and he’s very young."

Wright, 25, the New York Mets superstar third baseman, has his most productive years ahead of him and the Mets have him wrapped up under contract until 2013.

Check out James on "60 Minutes" this Sunday. Anyways, yeah. David Wright is the best.

Fernando Tatis ... Fernando Tatis ... where have I heard that name before ... oh yeah ... HIGH SCHOOL. What the shit? This is the most random comeback since rickrolling. For those of you who may not be familiar with his work, Tatis was a young third baseman phenom for the Cardinals for about 20 minutes, hitting a studly .298/.404/.553 with 34 dongs and 107 ribbies back in 1999. He hit two grand slams in one inning off Chan Ho Park in one inning, setting a record that is unlikely to be tied, much less broken. It was kind of a lucky season all around.

He got hurt in 2000 and literally never got it back, bouncing around the majors for a couple of years and bilking Omar out of some money back when Minaya was with the Expos. I guess Minaya didn't take it personal-like, though, because he signed Tatis to a minor-league deal last summer, and the dude spent the year down in New Orleans (playing with Park, natch) and stayed healthy enough to get an NRI to camp.

This spring, he's shown the ability to hit right-handed and play left field, two things that Ruben Gotay (cut yesterday) could not, and he looks like he's going to break camp with the team. Real hard luck on Gotay, in my opinion, and pretty fast and loose keeping a guy who has a whopping 56 at-bats in the majors since 2003. To be fair, he did hit .276 with 21 homers and decent patience last summer with the Zephyrs, but that's not exactly lighting the world on fire. To be continued against left-handed pitchers...