Y2K 2008 Mets Preview: Starting Pitching

[Baseball can't start soon enough, and to get you ready for a full season of action, Y2K wants to help you meet the 2008 Mets. We'll break down a roster position each day heading into the opener. Today it's the starting rotation, where the Mets look strong to very strong. Macho Man Randy Savage strong. Little known fact -- the Macho Man is half Jewish.]

Projected starter: Johan Santana
Age: 29
2007 line: 219 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 235 K, 52 BB
2008 PECOTA: 230 IP, 3.01 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 244 K, 61 BB, 59.7 VORP

Projected starter: Pedro Martinez
Age: 36
2007 line: 28 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP 32 K, 7 BB
2008 PECOTA: 125 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 113 K, 36 BB, 26.9 VORP

Projected starter: John Maine
Age: 27
2007 line: 191 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 180 K, 75 BB
2008 PECOTA: 160 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 138 K, 65 BB

Projected starter: Oliver Perez
Age: 26
2007 line: 177 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 174 K, 79 BB
2008 PECOTA: 150 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 144 K, 68 BB

Projected starter/reliever: Mike Pelfrey
Age: 24
2007 line: 72.2 IP, 5.57 ERA, 1.71 WHIP,
2008 PECOTA: 100 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 69 K, 49 BB

Projected starter/reliver: Orlando Hernandez
Age: Undefined
2007 line: 147.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 128 K, 64 BB
2008 PECOTA: 90 IP, 4.20, 1.32 WHIP, 73 K, 34 BB

Discussion

Without El Duque getting hurt, we would have had four Latin starters -- Omar must be a racist.

I don't understand why people are down on the Mets' rotation at all. The upgrade from Tom Glavine to Santana is pretty fucking substantial, as is the difference between the Jorge Sosa/Brian Lawrence/Wesley Snipes contingent and Pedro. To think the Mets will be worse off, you have to believe Maine, Perez and the Pelfrey/Hernandez slot will collectively regress so much so that the gains from adding two of, hmm, the best pitchers in the game, is not only washed out, but is countermanded.

This seems crazy to me. First of all, it's hardly a guarantee that Maine and Perez are going to be worse than last year. Look at their respective ages; both are coming into what ought to be the primes of their careers. Both had somewhat low BABIPs last year, but nothing crazy. Neither pitched a ton of innings; both had slumps toward the end of the season, as if consistent with some fatigue.

You may or may not think either is a world-beater or has much chance of turning into a Cy Young candidate, but is it a given they were playing over their heads? I just don't see it. Where's the evidence? What's the thinking? I seriously haven't seen this explained adequately anywhere. My personal opinion is that both have a better chance of consolidating their gains from last year (in terms of approach, experience, stability ... neither are long-time veterans, after all) and posting better seasons than in 2007. That might be overly optimistic, but I think it's just as fair as assuming that both are locks to fall back.

Then there's Pedro. PECOTA, the fans, the media and common sense all call for him to come back like a banshee in '08, and they should. Petey's a competitive guy, and last season was no doubt incredibly frustrating. He knows that he doesn't have tons of time left in a sterling career, and this is one of the last opportunities to show his still-beautiful stuff.

He looked great in a handful of September appearances, has been doing fine down in the Grapefruit League, and says he's in tip-shape. All exciting stuff. Short of a multi-month injury or something similarly tragic, we're in for a treat.

Santana's bona fides have been discussed plenty. Just say "Cy."

As for the No. 5 slot, it went to Pelfrey on Sunday after it was decided that El Duque would start the year on the DL. This is fine. It's been pointed out in several other outlets, and it's kind of an obvious point, but it still has to be said -- the Mets need to find out what they have in Pelfrey, and they need to find out sooner rather than later. Either he has a breaking pitches and off-speed stuff or he doesn't. Either Rick Peterson has found a way to put some movement on the fastball, or taught him to sink the rock a bit, or he hasn't.

If none of those things are going to happen, then the team needs to know now, so they can throw Pelfrey into the bullpen and be done with it. He's got a perfectly fine arm for a power reliever, and if he turns out to have been an overhyped semi-waste of a No. 1 draft pick, then so be it. No use crying over spilt bonus.

All in all, I see the Mets having the best rotation ERAs in the division, one of the top 3 in the league, and a huge source of strength. That's my story, and until someone gets hurt, I'm sticking to it.