Y2K 2008 Mets Preview: Second Base
[Baseball can't start soon enough, and to get you ready for a full season of action, Y2K wants to help you meet the 2008 Mets. We'll break down a roster position each day heading into the opener. Today it's second base, the former home of Jose Valentin. R.I.P., fella.]
Projected starter: Luis Castillo
In case of a complete of even partial breakdown, Gotay's not a bad piece to have around. His defense is just as suspect as Castillo's, and the guy who hit .350 through August 1 of last year probably won't ever show up again, but finding a second baseman possessed of both speed and pop is rare enough as it is. As a cheap, short- to medium-term fill-in, I like his ability to put up an OBP comparable to that of an injured Castillo, with potentially more power to boot. Acquiring Gotay for Jeff Keppinger was a move we praised at the time, and it's worked out nicely. Otherwise, we'd now be talking about starting second baseman Anderson Hernandez (shudder).
Still, the outlook here isn't great. Absent some luck on the health front, Castillo has the potential to become a $6 million per annum albatross, a spiritual heir to renowned overpaid Mets second basemen of the past (Kazuo, Alomar, Baerga) and an unnecessary drain on the team's productivity. Not some of Omar's best work.
(Strange but true -- the Mets got 5.9 WARP out of Jose Valentin only two years ago. That's going to go down as one of the most random one-year success stories of the Omar Era, made even better by the fact that Valentin and his excellent mustache lived in the same Long Island City apartment building as our man Avi. The good times never last...)
Projected starter: Luis CastilloAge: 32
2007 line (combined AL and NL): .301/.362/.359, 17.7 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 561 PA, .289/.361/.341, 18.6 VORP
Backup: Ruben Gotay
Backup: Ruben GotayAge: 25
2007 line: .295/.351/.421, 8.9 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 110 PA, .261/.329/.408
Discussion
A healthy Luis Castillo is an asset, even at his somewhat advanced age. A healthy Luis Castillo is mediocre defensively, but doesn't kill you. A healthy Luis Castillo gets on base at an above-average clip, does the bat-controlly things in the No. 2 slot managers like, and contributes on the basepaths. A healthy Luis Castillo can be, and of course has been in the past, a championship-caliber player.
The thing is, Castillo has yet to be really healthy in 2008, and his ability to ever remain so for long periods of time is seriously in doubt. The guy's a stubby little bundle of energy, but you can only be so energetic on a pair of knees that sustained untold damage from a couple years on the Metrodome turf. His right peg was 'scoped over the winter, and it's really not back all the way. The knee has been balky in the past, as has the left one, and there's every reason to believe that both will worsen with time.
And if Castillo's speed is compromised even a little bit, he quickly becomes a fairly sizable liability. His solid OBPs have always been compiled via a combination of plate discipline, dink singles, corner doubles and infield hits, and losing his legs takes two of those four options off the table. Not that the threat of him rifling the ball down into the corner and legging out a two-bagger is that menacing (18 2B in 2007), but it's still an option. Without speed, Castillo basically becomes a much-poorer hitting version of Jose Vidro, which ain't helping anyone. Even worse, thanks to the highly trouble 4-year, $25 million extension he signed last summer, he's just as expensive a proposition. True, for the moment, he can actually still play second base, but if his already limited range is further compromised by bad pegs, even that's not a guarantee.
Discussion
A healthy Luis Castillo is an asset, even at his somewhat advanced age. A healthy Luis Castillo is mediocre defensively, but doesn't kill you. A healthy Luis Castillo gets on base at an above-average clip, does the bat-controlly things in the No. 2 slot managers like, and contributes on the basepaths. A healthy Luis Castillo can be, and of course has been in the past, a championship-caliber player.
The thing is, Castillo has yet to be really healthy in 2008, and his ability to ever remain so for long periods of time is seriously in doubt. The guy's a stubby little bundle of energy, but you can only be so energetic on a pair of knees that sustained untold damage from a couple years on the Metrodome turf. His right peg was 'scoped over the winter, and it's really not back all the way. The knee has been balky in the past, as has the left one, and there's every reason to believe that both will worsen with time.
And if Castillo's speed is compromised even a little bit, he quickly becomes a fairly sizable liability. His solid OBPs have always been compiled via a combination of plate discipline, dink singles, corner doubles and infield hits, and losing his legs takes two of those four options off the table. Not that the threat of him rifling the ball down into the corner and legging out a two-bagger is that menacing (18 2B in 2007), but it's still an option. Without speed, Castillo basically becomes a much-poorer hitting version of Jose Vidro, which ain't helping anyone. Even worse, thanks to the highly trouble 4-year, $25 million extension he signed last summer, he's just as expensive a proposition. True, for the moment, he can actually still play second base, but if his already limited range is further compromised by bad pegs, even that's not a guarantee.
In case of a complete of even partial breakdown, Gotay's not a bad piece to have around. His defense is just as suspect as Castillo's, and the guy who hit .350 through August 1 of last year probably won't ever show up again, but finding a second baseman possessed of both speed and pop is rare enough as it is. As a cheap, short- to medium-term fill-in, I like his ability to put up an OBP comparable to that of an injured Castillo, with potentially more power to boot. Acquiring Gotay for Jeff Keppinger was a move we praised at the time, and it's worked out nicely. Otherwise, we'd now be talking about starting second baseman Anderson Hernandez (shudder).
Still, the outlook here isn't great. Absent some luck on the health front, Castillo has the potential to become a $6 million per annum albatross, a spiritual heir to renowned overpaid Mets second basemen of the past (Kazuo, Alomar, Baerga) and an unnecessary drain on the team's productivity. Not some of Omar's best work.
(Strange but true -- the Mets got 5.9 WARP out of Jose Valentin only two years ago. That's going to go down as one of the most random one-year success stories of the Omar Era, made even better by the fact that Valentin and his excellent mustache lived in the same Long Island City apartment building as our man Avi. The good times never last...)
posted by Cheddar Ben at 1:00 AM
4 Comments:
Mr. Ben, I disagree with ya points on the defense of Castillo..His range might not be great, but he turned some of the illest double plays last year ...his glovework, arm and will to stand in and deliver a quality throw, while taking a decent hit was damn near excellent...in my opinion. and he did a real good job as a #2 batter...he is a great bunter and works counts well.
i agree boyboy... it seems like castillo always does just what he needs to do at the plate. When jose gets on, he gets him over. when he needs to get on base, he bloops a single. when he needs to work the pitcher a little, he works the count.
while the 4 years is a little excessive, at the very worst, he becomes an excellent bench player for the last year or two of his contract.
As a coach at Dartmouth's summer soccer camp once told a young and hungry AFOMG: "Whatever we do with our right peg, that we must do with our left peg."
Your move, Cheddar. Check.
Where'dya think all this peg talk comes from, anyway? I wish I had that soccer coach.
And fellas, I appreciate what you're saying, but an injured Castillo who can't run and can't play defense isn't even a good bench player. A guy with no power doesn't have much room for error.
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