Y2K 2008 Mets Preview: Outfield
[Baseball can't start soon enough, and to get you ready for a full season of action, Y2K wants to help you meet the 2008 Mets. We'll break down a roster position each day heading into the opener. Today it's the appropriately named outfield. Any position where Angel Pagan has a chance to play regularly should have the word "out" in it. New rule!]
Projected CF: Carlos Beltran
Projected CF: Carlos BeltranAge: 31
2007 line: .276/.353/.549, 51.1 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 605 PA, .276/.363/.501, 43.4 VORP
Projected LF: Moises Alou
Age: 102
2007 line: .341/.392/.524, 32.6 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 304 PA, .307/.368/.485, 16.7 VORP
Projected RF: Ryan Church
Age: 29
2007 line: .272/.349/.464, 22.2 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 427 PA, .267/.349/.472, 21.4 VORP
Projected 4th OF: Endy Chavez
Age: 30
2007 line: .287/.325/.380, 1.3 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 369 PA, .282/.334/.362, 6.4 VORP
Projected 5th OF: Angel Pagan
Age: 26
2007 line: .264/.306/.439, 3.2 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 201 PA, .249/.313/.389, 3.1 VORP
Discussion
Which outfield is better, the one in Queens or the one in Southeast D.C.? I'm beating the hell out of this dead horse, and certainly not for the last time, but right now, the Mets have one of the best centerfielders in the game, a somewhat promising stiff in right, and the star of "Weekend at Bernie's" in left field. When they don't have him available, they have Endy Chavez -- not a starter -- and our new kid, "Dark" Angel Pagan, as replacements in left and right, as well as Damion Easley to throw in against lefties. Damion Easley spent most of his career as a mediocre-hitting shortstop.
On the other hand, come out and greet the Nats:
LF - Elijah Dukes: .272/.359/.475, 27.8 VORP
CF - Blastings: .290/.359/.480, 33.2 VORP
RF - Austin Kearns: .271/.361/.458, 20.1 VORP
No player nearly as good as Beltran is projected to be, much less as good as he could be if he stays healthy or has another 2006 season. On the other hand, it's a way more balanced group of players, features two young players with tons of upside (not even counting Wily Mo Pena as a platoon partner for Kearns, and Wily Mo eats left-handed pitchers for breakfast, lunch and dinner), and they play for peanuts. The Mets have money to spend, and as I've said before, I think a one-year, $10M deal for 300 ABs from Alou is probably worth the effort. But there's no question who's getting the better value.
Which brings me back to, once again, why the Blastings trade was so awful. Let's say, even in the best-case scenario, that Alou comes back from this latest death-defying injury and plays for the rest of the season without getting hurt. Something like 400 ABs, looks great, cracks the ball. Everyone's thrilled, we invent an "Alou Alou Alou" cheer, etc. But at the end of the year, no matter what, that's it -- he's gone, most likely retired, and the Mets don't even get a draft pick for him leaving. And now we've got a hole in left field, and no particular way to fill it in-house, unless you think that Fernando Martinez will be ready (hint: he won't be). Now, unless you know something about Angel Pagan I don't, we're left to scour the free agent market for another short-term fill, none of which is likely to be that attractive. You'll be counting on someone like Juan Rivera, or paying Pat Burrell $15 million to watch fly balls die in Citi Field's power alley.
If Church replicates his 2007 numbers, he won't be a liability in right, but there's very little chance he turns into an actual asset. And guys with his skillset -- lefties who can take a walk and hit for decent power without much speed or defensive value -- are simply not that hard to find. The Cubs' Matt Murton, currently languishing on the bench, is basically the same player. Former Met and former Cub Cliff Floyd is the left field version of the same player, albeit with more mileage and less defensive value. Guys who are useful bats but, when limited to corners, not tremendously valuable -- Philly got Geoff Jenkins for two years and $13 million; he was available.
And until Fernando-Mania takes hold in 2010 or so, the Mets now have no other young players coming through the outfield. Gomez had to go to Minnesota, this is understood, but Omar has left himself with very few outs.
The result, when Alou gets hurt again and stays out for most of the year, is way too much Endy and Pagan. And Fernando Tatis, who hasn't played well regularly in 8 years. We've given Endy his love over the past few years, and the guy's done great work at times, but if he's a featured part of the team, we're simply in big trouble. That goes quintuple for Angel Pagan, who aparently is in the best shape of any Met, ever. Won every conditioning drill. Which is fantastic -- I'll remember that when the Puerto Rican Gilad is hitting .220 and playing every day.
Beltran could go on another tear and win the MVP award, or he could also mildly disappoint, as PECOTA apparently expects him to do. I confess I don't have a good handle on what types of injuries he has, whether they're career-chronic or have any chance of healing up completely and allowing him to operate at full strength. I guess I have faith in the Mets' training staff to do the right thing by him, but as far as I'm concerned, it's just another variable in an unnecessarily uncertain situation.
[Ed's note: Anyone can feel free to make an argument for Barry Bonds in the comments. We'll discuss that later. Also, who knows what the church shown above is?]
2007 line: .276/.353/.549, 51.1 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 605 PA, .276/.363/.501, 43.4 VORP
Projected LF: Moises AlouAge: 102
2007 line: .341/.392/.524, 32.6 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 304 PA, .307/.368/.485, 16.7 VORP
Projected RF: Ryan ChurchAge: 29
2007 line: .272/.349/.464, 22.2 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 427 PA, .267/.349/.472, 21.4 VORP
Projected 4th OF: Endy ChavezAge: 30
2007 line: .287/.325/.380, 1.3 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 369 PA, .282/.334/.362, 6.4 VORP
Projected 5th OF: Angel PaganAge: 26
2007 line: .264/.306/.439, 3.2 VORP
2008 PECOTA: 201 PA, .249/.313/.389, 3.1 VORP
Discussion
Which outfield is better, the one in Queens or the one in Southeast D.C.? I'm beating the hell out of this dead horse, and certainly not for the last time, but right now, the Mets have one of the best centerfielders in the game, a somewhat promising stiff in right, and the star of "Weekend at Bernie's" in left field. When they don't have him available, they have Endy Chavez -- not a starter -- and our new kid, "Dark" Angel Pagan, as replacements in left and right, as well as Damion Easley to throw in against lefties. Damion Easley spent most of his career as a mediocre-hitting shortstop.
On the other hand, come out and greet the Nats:
LF - Elijah Dukes: .272/.359/.475, 27.8 VORP
CF - Blastings: .290/.359/.480, 33.2 VORP
RF - Austin Kearns: .271/.361/.458, 20.1 VORP
No player nearly as good as Beltran is projected to be, much less as good as he could be if he stays healthy or has another 2006 season. On the other hand, it's a way more balanced group of players, features two young players with tons of upside (not even counting Wily Mo Pena as a platoon partner for Kearns, and Wily Mo eats left-handed pitchers for breakfast, lunch and dinner), and they play for peanuts. The Mets have money to spend, and as I've said before, I think a one-year, $10M deal for 300 ABs from Alou is probably worth the effort. But there's no question who's getting the better value.
Which brings me back to, once again, why the Blastings trade was so awful. Let's say, even in the best-case scenario, that Alou comes back from this latest death-defying injury and plays for the rest of the season without getting hurt. Something like 400 ABs, looks great, cracks the ball. Everyone's thrilled, we invent an "Alou Alou Alou" cheer, etc. But at the end of the year, no matter what, that's it -- he's gone, most likely retired, and the Mets don't even get a draft pick for him leaving. And now we've got a hole in left field, and no particular way to fill it in-house, unless you think that Fernando Martinez will be ready (hint: he won't be). Now, unless you know something about Angel Pagan I don't, we're left to scour the free agent market for another short-term fill, none of which is likely to be that attractive. You'll be counting on someone like Juan Rivera, or paying Pat Burrell $15 million to watch fly balls die in Citi Field's power alley.
If Church replicates his 2007 numbers, he won't be a liability in right, but there's very little chance he turns into an actual asset. And guys with his skillset -- lefties who can take a walk and hit for decent power without much speed or defensive value -- are simply not that hard to find. The Cubs' Matt Murton, currently languishing on the bench, is basically the same player. Former Met and former Cub Cliff Floyd is the left field version of the same player, albeit with more mileage and less defensive value. Guys who are useful bats but, when limited to corners, not tremendously valuable -- Philly got Geoff Jenkins for two years and $13 million; he was available.
And until Fernando-Mania takes hold in 2010 or so, the Mets now have no other young players coming through the outfield. Gomez had to go to Minnesota, this is understood, but Omar has left himself with very few outs.
The result, when Alou gets hurt again and stays out for most of the year, is way too much Endy and Pagan. And Fernando Tatis, who hasn't played well regularly in 8 years. We've given Endy his love over the past few years, and the guy's done great work at times, but if he's a featured part of the team, we're simply in big trouble. That goes quintuple for Angel Pagan, who aparently is in the best shape of any Met, ever. Won every conditioning drill. Which is fantastic -- I'll remember that when the Puerto Rican Gilad is hitting .220 and playing every day.
Beltran could go on another tear and win the MVP award, or he could also mildly disappoint, as PECOTA apparently expects him to do. I confess I don't have a good handle on what types of injuries he has, whether they're career-chronic or have any chance of healing up completely and allowing him to operate at full strength. I guess I have faith in the Mets' training staff to do the right thing by him, but as far as I'm concerned, it's just another variable in an unnecessarily uncertain situation.
[Ed's note: Anyone can feel free to make an argument for Barry Bonds in the comments. We'll discuss that later. Also, who knows what the church shown above is?]
posted by Cheddar Ben at 11:09 AM
1 Comments:
You are really down on Pagan...
I still do not understand why you feel the Nationals OF is better than anyone's OF (including the Mets). To be real, none of those guys have done anything more than Church and Pagan over their career. and I am glad ESPN showed most of those diving catches that Lastings 'made' where the result of poor reads and poor footwork to begin the play...
I disagree with the Fernando Martinez point, He made it with the club until 10 days ago... Another season in the minors plus some september seasoning this year and I dont see why he wouldn't be ready to contribute in 09. especially considering there shouldn't be a big time player blocking his learning on the job and batting 7th/8th....
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