Y2K 2008 Mets Preview: First Base
[Baseball can't start soon enough, and to get you ready for a full season of action, Y2K wants to help you meet the 2008 Mets. We'll break down a roster position each day heading into the opener. Today it's first base, the, um, first base in order as you run around the basepaths. Just read the thing.]
Projected starter: Carlos Delgado
Projected starter: Carlos DelgadoAge: 36
2007 line: .258/.333/.448
2008 PECOTA: 485 PA, .265/.343/.471, 18.6 VORP
Backup: Olmedo Saenz
Backup: Olmedo Saenz
Age: 37
2007 line: .193/.295/.345
2008 PECOTA: 105 PA, .239/.330/.398
Discussion
According to Baseball Prospectus, the most comparable player to Delgado at this point is Luke Easter. Now, I'd never heard of the fella, although he has an excellent (if a little goyish) name. "Luscious" Luke Easter, as he was known, was a 6-foot-4 dynamo of a first baseman who starred in the last-ever Negro World Series and only made it to the big leagues at age 33. Born in Missouri, he started off in the '30s playing for the St. Louis Titanium Giants, a semi-pro offshoot of the American Titanium Company that beat up on other company squads and Negro professional teams. Easter had gone to high school with Sam Jethroe, the team's star and a guy who went on to be the 1950 National League Rookie of the Year (at age 32).
After World War 2, Easter landed with the Homestead Grays. In 1948, the last real Negro League season, he hit .363, led the league in HR and RBI, and helped the Grays knock off the Birmingham Black Barons in the black fall classic. Bill Veeck, the mad genius owner of the Cleveland Indians, liked what he saw and bought his contract, and though a knee injury basically killed off his 1949, Easter got his shot in the big leagues as a 34-year-old rookie in 1950. And he absolutely killed it, hitting .280/.373/.487 with 28 HR and 107 RBI. Even better, he became the first player to hit a home run over the auxiliary scoreboard in right field in Cleveland's Municipal Stadium, some 475 feet away from home plate -- the only other guy to ever do it was Mickey Mantle in 1960. Previously, he had been the first player to his a homer to dead center in the old Polo Grounds. The guy hit bombs.
In any case, Easter had three real solid seasons before the Indians got rid of him, and the last one was his Age-36 season in 1952, when he hit .263/.337/.513 with 31 HR. There's no question the Mets would take that from Delgado in 2008, but it doesn't seem especially likely -- Delgado's power against lefties is almost completely gone, and his strike zone recognition is a shadow of what it once was. There are about a dozen ways to pitch him -- low and in, medium and in, high and outside, ad nauseum -- and the number grows on the daily.
Maybe the Mets will be in on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes next winter, jumping in line for the right to pay the guy $20 million a year, and they will probably have to be. There are no slugging prospects in the minor league system to speak of, and you have to think the Mets can't possibly go into 2009 with Delgado as the plan. Even with a solid, turn-it-around campaign, he'll still be a year older, and a year closer to the inevitable end of the big man hitter.
Saenz was a nice pickup, though -- he'll pick up a lot of starts against LHPs, against whom always performed very well, and he's a perfectly acceptable pinch-hitter. If hs 2007 numbers look scary, well, they are -- it was an awful year. But, again, in 2006, he looked great in part-time action with the Dodgers, throwing up a .296/.360/.559 line mostly accomplished against southpaws, and I like his chance to be the player Julio Franco should have been. Damion Easley will probably snag some PT at first as a defensive sub or occasional starter, but we'll deal with him later.
Also, if you're wondering why you should be interested in Easter, just know that as Delgado's top comps go, he's a guy we want. Carlos' No. 2 match? None other than Mo Vaughn, who spent his Age-36 season on the couch playing Madden 2004 with his kids. Really just not the type of image we want out of our big, old, injury-prone sluggers. Delgado's No. 3 comp was Boog Powell, the Orioles' great '60s and '70s slugger who was, again, out of baseball at age 36. The Crime Dog, Fred McGriff, is No. 4, and he had some seasons left in the tank at that point, but the rest of the Top 10 is filled with dudes who either weren't playing (Chris Chambliss, Dale Long) or were a pale shadow of their former selves (Tony Perez, Dave Parker). At this point, we'd absolutely settle for a 2004 Tino Martinez-for-the-Rays campaign (.262/.362/.461). I mean, really.
Discussion
According to Baseball Prospectus, the most comparable player to Delgado at this point is Luke Easter. Now, I'd never heard of the fella, although he has an excellent (if a little goyish) name. "Luscious" Luke Easter, as he was known, was a 6-foot-4 dynamo of a first baseman who starred in the last-ever Negro World Series and only made it to the big leagues at age 33. Born in Missouri, he started off in the '30s playing for the St. Louis Titanium Giants, a semi-pro offshoot of the American Titanium Company that beat up on other company squads and Negro professional teams. Easter had gone to high school with Sam Jethroe, the team's star and a guy who went on to be the 1950 National League Rookie of the Year (at age 32).
After World War 2, Easter landed with the Homestead Grays. In 1948, the last real Negro League season, he hit .363, led the league in HR and RBI, and helped the Grays knock off the Birmingham Black Barons in the black fall classic. Bill Veeck, the mad genius owner of the Cleveland Indians, liked what he saw and bought his contract, and though a knee injury basically killed off his 1949, Easter got his shot in the big leagues as a 34-year-old rookie in 1950. And he absolutely killed it, hitting .280/.373/.487 with 28 HR and 107 RBI. Even better, he became the first player to hit a home run over the auxiliary scoreboard in right field in Cleveland's Municipal Stadium, some 475 feet away from home plate -- the only other guy to ever do it was Mickey Mantle in 1960. Previously, he had been the first player to his a homer to dead center in the old Polo Grounds. The guy hit bombs.
In any case, Easter had three real solid seasons before the Indians got rid of him, and the last one was his Age-36 season in 1952, when he hit .263/.337/.513 with 31 HR. There's no question the Mets would take that from Delgado in 2008, but it doesn't seem especially likely -- Delgado's power against lefties is almost completely gone, and his strike zone recognition is a shadow of what it once was. There are about a dozen ways to pitch him -- low and in, medium and in, high and outside, ad nauseum -- and the number grows on the daily.
Maybe the Mets will be in on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes next winter, jumping in line for the right to pay the guy $20 million a year, and they will probably have to be. There are no slugging prospects in the minor league system to speak of, and you have to think the Mets can't possibly go into 2009 with Delgado as the plan. Even with a solid, turn-it-around campaign, he'll still be a year older, and a year closer to the inevitable end of the big man hitter.
Saenz was a nice pickup, though -- he'll pick up a lot of starts against LHPs, against whom always performed very well, and he's a perfectly acceptable pinch-hitter. If hs 2007 numbers look scary, well, they are -- it was an awful year. But, again, in 2006, he looked great in part-time action with the Dodgers, throwing up a .296/.360/.559 line mostly accomplished against southpaws, and I like his chance to be the player Julio Franco should have been. Damion Easley will probably snag some PT at first as a defensive sub or occasional starter, but we'll deal with him later.
Also, if you're wondering why you should be interested in Easter, just know that as Delgado's top comps go, he's a guy we want. Carlos' No. 2 match? None other than Mo Vaughn, who spent his Age-36 season on the couch playing Madden 2004 with his kids. Really just not the type of image we want out of our big, old, injury-prone sluggers. Delgado's No. 3 comp was Boog Powell, the Orioles' great '60s and '70s slugger who was, again, out of baseball at age 36. The Crime Dog, Fred McGriff, is No. 4, and he had some seasons left in the tank at that point, but the rest of the Top 10 is filled with dudes who either weren't playing (Chris Chambliss, Dale Long) or were a pale shadow of their former selves (Tony Perez, Dave Parker). At this point, we'd absolutely settle for a 2004 Tino Martinez-for-the-Rays campaign (.262/.362/.461). I mean, really.
posted by Cheddar Ben at 1:00 AM
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