Friday Notes

Shorter Roger Clemens' lawyers: "Did Brian McNamee ever kill a brother of yours, or the like? Son, I'm asking you if what happened in that saloon was vengeance for the death of a family member. Possibly a brother in Abilene, or the like?"

* * * * * * * * * *

The non-Knicks world of basketball remains utterly fascinating, especially with all of the trading action going on out West. The contenders are stocking up for what should be one of the best postseasons of all time -- Pau to the Lakers, Shaq to Phoenix, J-Kidd back to Dallas should Devean George's demand for satisfaction ever be accepted.

Cheddar Ben saw most of an utterly amazing game between Sip's Warriors and those same Phoenix Suns Wednesday night, one that eventually broke for Golden State (only after Barbosa had a game-winning 3-point attempt rim out). Just a beautiful exhibition of up-and-down play, offensive style and garbage defense.

It was so moving, in fact, that the SF Chronicle's Scott Ostler lost his head, or at least his grasp of the common parlance.

And with Webber, the Warriors wouldn't have scored 29 points off the fast break, or forced 19 turnovers. Like sharks, this team must move or die.

The only problem is that the Warriors probably can't keep up this pace another half season, because how can Davis keep playing 45 minutes a night without eventually blowing a tire or a tranny?

I'll just say this -- if Baron Davis ends up blowing a tranny, that story will be slightly bigger than Golden State's playing time distribution.

* * * * * * * * * *

Projections are out, PECOTA and ZIPS and so forth, and here's how the NL East shortstop situation stacks up.

Las Vegas Bail Bondsmen -- Hanley Ramirez
2007 line: .332/.386/.562 (led NL in Power/Speed No.)
2007 PMR: 99.36
2007 FRAA: -8
2008 season age: 24
ZIPS projection: .306/.369/.516, 125 runs, 46 SB, 25 HR
PECOTA projection: .306/.371/.501, 113 runs, 38 SB, 21 HR

Discussion: Both projection systems see his hitting falling off a bit, but only to levels that still make him one of the best and most valuable hitters in the league. Both fielding metrics (Probabilistic Model of Range, from David Pinto's Baseball Musings, and Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average) agree with the scouts, which is to say they agree that ol' Hanley is one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game. In Florida, he's blocked from going to 2B by his power-hitting colleague Dan Uggla, but 3B is obviously fairly open. Odds are, though, that they leave him to screw over their young pitching staff for another year, at which point they'll probably deal him to a team needing a 2B or 3B.

The Team to Beat -- Jimmy Rollins
2007 line: .296/.344/.531 (named NL MVP)
2007 PMR: 103.20
2007 FRAA: 8
2008 season age: 29
ZIPS projection: .282/.336/.485, 128 runs, 33 SB, 25 HR
PECOTA projection: .291/.346/.472, 102 runs, 29 SB, 20 HR

The drop in slugging percentage is attributable to the fact that hitting 20 triples takes a whole lot of luck. Otherwise, Jimmy basically looks like the same player -- real good defense, real good power, mediocre on-base skills and excellent speed. Big mouth.

The Hometown Nine -- Jose Reyes
2007 line: .280/.354/.421 (led ML with 78 SB)
2007 PMR: 97.66
2007 FRAA: 4
2008 season age: 25
ZIPS projection: .285/.345/.444, 122 runs, 71 SB, 15 HR
PECOTA projection: .290/.350/.438, 110 runs, 60 SB, 11 HR

Nate Silver had a piece in BP this week that assessed Jose's chance of breaking Rickey Henderson's all-time stolen base record. Now, Jose would have to steal 60 bases a year until he was 45 to do it, so I don't think there's a chance in hell it happens, but all the same, the fact is he's set himself up for that type of comparison. A couple months ago, I would have said the projections were underestimating Jose's ability to break out into a more complete hitter, but the end of last year planted some doubt on that score. Anyway, PMR doesn't like his defense very much, whereas the FRAA system sees him as slightly above average. Should really only get better at this point.

Hotlanta -- Yunel Escobar
2007 line: .326/.385/.451
2007 PMR: 102.69
2007 FRAA: -6
2008 season age: 25
ZIPS projection: .297/.361/.404, 67 runs, 8 SB, 6 HR
PECOTA projection: .287.,348/.402, 63 runs, 9 SB, 7 HR

The opposite of Reyes, in that PMR thinks he's one of the better shortstops in the game, and FRAA sees him as crappy. The Braves have another SS coming behind him (white boy named Brent something-or-other) who allegedly has more flash with the glove and potentially more with the bat. Which wouldn't matter if anyone thought Yuni was a good bet to keep up his pace from last year, but really, nobody does. I dig him, though.

Southeast D.C. -- Felipe Lopez
2007 line: .245/.308/.352
2007 PMR: 95.03
2007 FRAA: -6
2008 season age: 28
ZIPS projection: .264/.344/.383, 82 runs, 19 SB, 12 HR
PECOTA projection: .271/.344/.396, 87 runs, 23 SB, 11 HR

- OR -

Cristian Guzman
2007 line: .328/.380/.466 (?)
2007 PMR: 89.34 (dead last)
2007 FRAA: -5
2008 season age: 30
ZIPS projection: .254/.301/.340, 36 runs, 4 SB, 2 HR
PECOTA projection: .257/.310/.345, 26 runs, 4 SB, 2 HR

Guzman makes other bad free agent signings look like the purchase of Manhattan. Lopez may have fallen apart after a promising, speed-power based start to his career. He should still get the PT, though.

* * * * * * * * * *

Shorter Andy Pettitte: "Don't worry. I'll be RIGHT BEHIND YOU."

* * * * * * * * * *

Shorter Ryan Dempster: "Please strike me with lightning."

* * * * * * * * * *

I'm sure if George Steinbrenner was still conscious, he'd really appreciate this. Normally, I'd be more peeved about it, and to be sure, it's fairly retarded. But it's not replacing anything of substance -- "Legends Field" sounds like the sort of thing Kevin Costner would come up with after a two-day ecstasy binge -- and as far as I'm concerned, the city of Tampa is welcome to the old coot.