Johan: What's Gained, What's Lost, and What's to Come

(Note: A.F.O.M.G. shares his thoughts on the Johan Santana deal immediately following this piece from KFC)

I was just sitting back, catching up on Friday Night Lights on TiVo, waiting to hear what the guys on PTI have to say about the Giants, having a fine Tuesday afternoon, when I got a text message: "Welcome Johan!"

This is the best news the Mets have gotten in an offseason in my lifetime. This makes up for the dumb little trades that MetsGeek posters have whined about - the Bannister trade, the Owens-Lindstrom trade, the Lastings trade. Those mean nothing. The Mets are the best team in the National League.

But, undoubtedly, you're going to hear otherwise as the season gets closer.

Before I get to that, let's look at:

The Good

1. The Best Pitcher on the Planet (TM)

This is irrefutable. Peter Gammons said that if there's one player in baseball take takes the Mets from very good to World Series contender, it's Johan, and I agree. He is first in wins, ERA and strikeouts among all pitchers in baseball over the last 4 years, in the AL. He's won two Cy Youngs and should have won the MVP in 2006. He's dominated the NL in his career.

Additionally, Mets fans, perhaps more than any in the league, know how to welcome a new marquee pitcher. He's going to love us and we're going to love him.

2. The Effect on the Team

Slotting in a true number 1 moves everyone into less pressure-packed positions in the rotation. Pedro can exhale, knowing it's not all on him. Maine and Ollie can continue to develop. I also expect a guy like Ollie, who I understand to be impressionable, to shadow his fellow Latino lefty throughout the season.

People have also noted how this is going to change the story going into the Spring, diverting attention from the collapse. Although the Mets have the personalities to answer the questions about that with smiles on their faces and positivity in their voices, now we know they'll believe what they're saying.

3. We Kept Our Two Best Prospects

After a front-of-the-rotation starter, the hardest player to get in baseball is the middle of the lineup masher. You so rarely hear prospects get compared to players like Manny Ramirez. Losing Fernando Martinez would have been disappointing. Keeping Fernando is an unexpected surprise. It seems the Omar is committed to this kid taking over for Moises Alou when Citi Field opens.

I know Pelfrey is not technically a prospect anymore, but that's just semantics. There is a strange phenomenon among analysts to immediately discount a player when he doesn't make an impactful debut in the majors. Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes and Chad Billingsley were the three best pitching prospects in baseball a year ago. They all had less-than-Joba-esque debuts in the majors and have been devalued. Pelfrey is in this group as well.

I'll take Mike Pelfrey any day (especially over Humber and Mulvey, who I will get to). He was still the top-ranked pitcher in his draft. He was still our top ranked organizational prospect last season. He still has a mid-to-upper 90s fastball that moves. He still has the potential to have a devastating curveball (a pitch that's usually the last to develop). He still is 6'10. He still is strong. He still had a few strong starts in September, when the Mets were fading. And he just turned 24 two weeks ago. I'll go to war with a guy like Pelfrey in the fifth slot in the rotation any day of the week.

4. Omar's Read of the Market

This is a very important part of this, too. When it was floated in the media, presumably by the Twins brass, that the Mets could have Santana if they added F-Mart to the deal, Matt Cerrone wrote this on Metsblog:

"For what it's worth, the following day in a poll for MetsBlog.com, when asked if the Mets should trade these five prospects [the four traded and Fernando Martinez] for Santana, and sign him to a long-term deal, 78 percent said, 'Yes.'"

This still would have been a good trade, but by reading the market, Omar managed to keep our best prospect. This seems like a high-risk game he played, but the confidence coming out of the Mets front offices suggests that the Mets know how this would play out from at least the Winter Meetings. We have a spectacular GM. I'm very proud of the way this was handled.

It's not as if we gave up no one, though...

The Guys We Gave Up

1. OF Carlos Gomez

This guy is the supposed jewel of this trade. Take him. If he's 75% the player Torii Hunter is, I'd be surprised. He may steal 60 bases in a season. He'll probably hit about .285. He's going to play a great center field and we know he's a likeable, bat-sniffing fellow.

But he's no star. He's a 6'4" slap hitter who seems to have no power stroke whatsoever and - considering we have Beltran in Center, Reyes at the top of the lineup and Castillo batting second for the next four years at least - Carlos Gomez, the 7th-spot hitting left fielder, is virtually useless for us. This is no loss whatsoever.

2. RHP Deolis Guerra

This is the guy we might miss. This guy might become a 20-game winner. He apparently is 6'5", with hands down to his knees and is only 18. The Mets, from what I hear, were in love with this guy in the same way they love Fernando Martinez. Still, I say "So what?"

It's not like he's a year away from making an impact, he's three years away. He had a 4.01 ERA in High-A last year, which means nothing except that he has to figure some things out before he moves up. I'm as into judging a pitcher based on raw talent and body type as anyone, but I'm more than willing to part with a guy who only has projection, and no real productivity to speak of, going for him.

3. RHP Kevin Mulvey

I'm thrilled we got rid of him. He screams "sell high." He apparently is a bulldog and has a good fastball. He also has only one season and change of professional baseball. He was pretty good at AA, but not great by any stretch.

He'll definitely be a major leaguer, but if he ever is a guy who pitches under a 4.00 ERA in the AL, I'll be surprised. In other words, he's a good, cheap pitcher for the Twins, and a highly-replaceable pitcher for the Mets - even at his rosiest projections.

4. RHP Phil Humber

Good Riddance. Seems like a nice guy and came back from Tommy John surgery. He's also 25. He has a losing record in the minors. We've all seen him - he's completely ordinary.

I'm thrilled that his lack of Major League experience was seen by pundits, and the Twins, as a plus and they chose him over Pelfrey. I doubt Humber will even be a starting pitcher in the majors, outside of a token try-out.

Most importantly, none of these guys were going to help this year, or even next year, in any serious way. This is the biggest coup of them all.

Of course, the media will find aspects of this deal to quibble with, so I want to debunk the following.

The Crap You're Going to Hear from the Media

1. Johan's Arm Trouble

I'm pretty sure you can say this about any pitcher in baseball. It's a meaningless point. Johan is younger than Erik Bedard and has pitched in 33 games or more in every Major League season. We'll be fine.

2. The Mets Were "Aggressive" (Sayeth Olney) and "Panicked" (Sayeth Kurkijan)

This is ridiculous. The Mets put an offer on the table, never altered it and it was the one that was eventually taken. If they were acting desperately, they would have moved Jose Reyes or Fernando Martinez. Perhaps the Mets needed Santana more than the Red Sox and Yankees, but the Mets didn't do anything stupid here. They were incredibly patient in this process, and that should be noted by the media.

3. Carlos Gomez is a Future Star

I'm not buying it, and I can't imagine anyone who watched him hit thinks so either. I've heard that he'll be the outfield's version of Jimmy Rollins. Well, that guy exists. His name is Curtis Granderson. Granderson hit 23 home runs last year.

Gomez has never had more than 8 in a minor league season, and only had 2 last year at New Orleans in 140 ABs. As I said before, Gomez will probably be a .285 hitter with a .340 OBP or so, but even if he's a .300 hitter with a .360 OBP, he's not going to slug much over .400 and a star that does not make.

4. The Farm System is Depleted

The farm system is weakened, but not depleted. We still have Fernando Martinez, as well as young pitchers that I've been told the Mets are very excited about, including Brant Rustich, Nathan Vineyard, Eddie Kunz and Jon Niese, as well as what everyone says is a great Latin class. We don't have great positional prospects, but, obviously, that was only marginally affected by the trade of Gomez.

But to say that the farm system is depleted in a vacuum ignores the point of the statement. The Mets have a core of players playing under reasonable or below-market contracts who are under their control for several years, including Reyes, Wright, Maine, Church, Pelfrey and Heilman.

They also have Ollie Perez for the year at a a rate far below the $16 mil per year he'll command if he repeats his 2007 performance (according to Major League Trade Rumors). And, I'm sure you noticed that Andruw Jones, he of the .714 OPS is making more per year than Carlos Beltran now.

The places we might need young guys to fill in - second base, corner outfielder and catcher - we didn't have before (outside of Martinez) and we don't have now. We still have strong relief pitcher prospects and we're going to send out a starting pitcher every day that is head and shoulders better than Mulvey and Humber.

* * * * *

The Mets really killed it on this trade. This feels decidedly like Kevin Garnett to the Celtics. Congrats to all of you.

- Kenny From Camp