Santana Claus
The climate of baseball has shifted over the last couple of years. Back in 2004, the Yankees would trade anyone and their mother to add star power. The result was a depleted farm system and a continued streak of playoff appearances.
Today, Prospects are GODS.
The Yankees claim to have three untouchable pitchers that are so good, that even my barber Franco is scared to trade them: Not even for the greatest pitcher of the millenium.
There are a bunch of reasons why he is wrong.
1. Look At What You Are Getting
In Johan Santana, you are getting the BEST pitcher in baseball. Josh Beckett may have had a better 2007, but Johan Santana is the best pitcher in the game. He will be 29 at the start of the 2008 season and he has has NEVER been hurt.
You are not trading for a risk here.
If anything, you are trading for the surest thing baseball has to offer. He does not have Beckett's blister problem or Sabathia's eating problem. It apeears after a streak of insane seasons that Johan Santana is essentially the perfect arm: Left handed, smooth delivery, ability to change speeds and posseses the games best pitch- his change up.
2. Inflation of New York Prospects
This happens all the time with prospects in New York. Because of our abundance of newspapers and local experts we know so much more about our prospects than any other city's fans do.
Because we have been reading about a kid for years, we project him more than people in Kansas City might about their young studs.
But look at all the failures or supposed busts.
Remember 10 months ago when Mike Pelfrey was the "ace of the future?" Is there a Met fan now that thinks he has a chance of cracking our depleted rotation?
Remember 10 months ago when Phil Hughes threw 98 MPH? I don't think I saw the guy crack 92mph all season.
We as New Yorkers sell ourselves on our own hype. But when it comes to a pitcher from Minnesota, we don't realize what we can be getting.
3. Worst Case Scenario
First off, let me say this. I don't think the Mets have a shot of getting Santana.
We don't have any legitimate pitching prospects.
And our hitting prospects, notably Milledge and Gomez are promising but not guarantees. They both have huge upside but come with questions. And neither is as advanced as any of the Yankee prospects.
But now lets look at the Yankee offer.
It appears that the Yankees have established Joba Chamberlin as their 1A guy with Hughes a close 1B and Kennedy #2.
The offer we have been hearing is Hughes, Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana.
If I'm the Yankees, I do this trade in one second. Even if Hughes becomes a #1, Kennedy a #3 and Cabrera an all-star outfielder.
Here's why.
Johan Santana's come along once every ten years. He's not just a #1 starter like Tom Glavine was for us. He is a legitimate Ace. If all three of the guys they trade max out on their potential, the Yankees are still getting the game's best pitcher. And last time I checked, they have the money to replace those other guys.
The Yankees can afford to make mistakes with their prospects more than any other team because they can offset the financial mistake. And in getting Santana, it shouldn't matter.
You think the Red Sox are bummed that they gave up Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett?
They traded arguably the best young player in baseball but so what. They got what they want. In Santana, the Yankees would get the same thing.
Conclusion
There are a number of reasons why Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera don't pan out. Cabrera hasn't been great hitting in the Yankees lineup. Hughes has one year in the bigs, one year on the DL. And Ian Kennedy?
And for that matter, whats to stop Joba Chamberlin's elbow from being bitten off by bugs?
I understand the practice of holding onto and developing your prospects, especially when they are elite ones. I believe that you don't trade guys with higher ceilings than the present value of the player you are acquiring.
You don't trade a potential #1 starter to get a current #3.
But this is a different story here. You are trading for the pitching version of Alex Rodriguez. The money isn't the issue here. This is the Yankees. This is purely a fear of looking stupid.
But you can't with this one, unless something freakish happens.
If I were starting a team today for the next 5 years, Santana would be my first pick.
This isn't Victor Zambrano here.
It's not Roy Oswalt or Barry Zito either.
Vaya,
Sip
(Pics courtesy of cnn.net, nydailynews.com)
Today, Prospects are GODS.
The Yankees claim to have three untouchable pitchers that are so good, that even my barber Franco is scared to trade them: Not even for the greatest pitcher of the millenium.
There are a bunch of reasons why he is wrong.
1. Look At What You Are Getting
In Johan Santana, you are getting the BEST pitcher in baseball. Josh Beckett may have had a better 2007, but Johan Santana is the best pitcher in the game. He will be 29 at the start of the 2008 season and he has has NEVER been hurt.
You are not trading for a risk here.
If anything, you are trading for the surest thing baseball has to offer. He does not have Beckett's blister problem or Sabathia's eating problem. It apeears after a streak of insane seasons that Johan Santana is essentially the perfect arm: Left handed, smooth delivery, ability to change speeds and posseses the games best pitch- his change up.
2. Inflation of New York Prospects
This happens all the time with prospects in New York. Because of our abundance of newspapers and local experts we know so much more about our prospects than any other city's fans do.
Because we have been reading about a kid for years, we project him more than people in Kansas City might about their young studs.
But look at all the failures or supposed busts.
Remember 10 months ago when Mike Pelfrey was the "ace of the future?" Is there a Met fan now that thinks he has a chance of cracking our depleted rotation?
Remember 10 months ago when Phil Hughes threw 98 MPH? I don't think I saw the guy crack 92mph all season.
We as New Yorkers sell ourselves on our own hype. But when it comes to a pitcher from Minnesota, we don't realize what we can be getting.
3. Worst Case Scenario
First off, let me say this. I don't think the Mets have a shot of getting Santana.
We don't have any legitimate pitching prospects.
And our hitting prospects, notably Milledge and Gomez are promising but not guarantees. They both have huge upside but come with questions. And neither is as advanced as any of the Yankee prospects.
But now lets look at the Yankee offer.
It appears that the Yankees have established Joba Chamberlin as their 1A guy with Hughes a close 1B and Kennedy #2.
The offer we have been hearing is Hughes, Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Santana.
If I'm the Yankees, I do this trade in one second. Even if Hughes becomes a #1, Kennedy a #3 and Cabrera an all-star outfielder.
Here's why.
Johan Santana's come along once every ten years. He's not just a #1 starter like Tom Glavine was for us. He is a legitimate Ace. If all three of the guys they trade max out on their potential, the Yankees are still getting the game's best pitcher. And last time I checked, they have the money to replace those other guys.
The Yankees can afford to make mistakes with their prospects more than any other team because they can offset the financial mistake. And in getting Santana, it shouldn't matter.
You think the Red Sox are bummed that they gave up Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett?
They traded arguably the best young player in baseball but so what. They got what they want. In Santana, the Yankees would get the same thing.
Conclusion
There are a number of reasons why Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera don't pan out. Cabrera hasn't been great hitting in the Yankees lineup. Hughes has one year in the bigs, one year on the DL. And Ian Kennedy?
And for that matter, whats to stop Joba Chamberlin's elbow from being bitten off by bugs?
I understand the practice of holding onto and developing your prospects, especially when they are elite ones. I believe that you don't trade guys with higher ceilings than the present value of the player you are acquiring.
You don't trade a potential #1 starter to get a current #3.
But this is a different story here. You are trading for the pitching version of Alex Rodriguez. The money isn't the issue here. This is the Yankees. This is purely a fear of looking stupid.
But you can't with this one, unless something freakish happens.
If I were starting a team today for the next 5 years, Santana would be my first pick.
This isn't Victor Zambrano here.
It's not Roy Oswalt or Barry Zito either.
Vaya,
Sip
(Pics courtesy of cnn.net, nydailynews.com)
posted by Sippy Momo at 1:07 PM
2 Comments:
It's going to be a devastating blow to low-payroll fantasy leagues everywhere when Santana gets traded.
Sip from downtown... YES!
The Yankees and their fans are funny about:
Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy
They see:
Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine
But I think of:
Wilson, Pulsipher, and Isringhasen
And what about the fourth part of the Braves pitching equation, Steve Avery? He disappeared after a promising start.
I remember a pitching prospect for the Mets named Tim Leary, who was going to be the next Seaver and resurrect the Mets from the ashes of the late 70's, early 80's. I believe in his first start in the bigs, he struck out 3 of the first 6, never came back out for the 3rd due to arm problems. You all know the rest of the story, because they're isn't any worth mentioning.
Never can tell with young pichers - similar trade was the Mets sending can't miss David West for Frank Viola (of course, Rick Aguilera went north in that trade as well) - still in all, a great trade.
If the Yankees get Santana, I'll try to keep it in perspective. How has the recent history been after acquiring the available superstar (choose from Giambi, A-Rod, Damon, Matsui, Abreu, The Big Unit)? We've all enjoyed the results.
FYI - For those of you who aren't aware of it, the 2008 schedule has been finalized - opening at home on 4/8 with Philly coming to town.
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