This Sucks
[Note: A.F.O.M.G. is plagued with self-doubt in a post below.]
There goes the neighborhood.
Here we go, folks. No longer can we call the Mets "the most talented team in the National League." No longer can we gloat about the Braves' gaping wound at first base. No longer can we feel even remotely safe with the lead in the NL East.
Hotlanta swung the deadline deal everyone in my head was fearing today, picking up Mark Teixeira from the Texas Rangers for a tasty package of three top prospects. You know at least one of them, but before we get into that, a look at the big picture is called for.
It's a great deal.
It's the type of deal that wins championships.
And it's likely the type of deal that's going to keep the Braves in the NL East title hunt well beyond the Chipper/Andruw Jones Era.
So, you can tell I'm pretty high on Tex. The vitals are everything you look for in a 1B -- a switch-hitting big bat, slick fielder, young and disciplined. He's hitting a stellar .297/.397/.523 this year despite starting off the year in an awful slump (.223 with 2 HR in April) and battling some nagging injuries.
Unlike some other Rangers past and present, his power numbers aren't an Arlington phenomenon -- Tex's line from 2004-06 at home was .299/.380/.573; on the road, he put up a .278/.367/.526. Over the same period, his numbers as a lefty and a righty hitter are nearly identical -- the guy's balanced.
Basically, if he performs anything like his career norms (and he's shown himself to be extremely dependable), the Braves have plugged a huge hole in their infield. Without further ado, your 2007 Atlanta first basemen:
Scott Thorman, 585 innings, .220/.262/.402, -7.0 VORP
Craig Wilson, 141 innings, .174/.303/.259, -3.8 VORP
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 103 innings, .284/.333/.411
Julio Franco, 82 innings, .224/.324/.333, -0.7 VORP
Chris Woodward, 35 innings, .222/.254/.333
Just brutal. Tex is a whopping improvement.
Now, there are two potential costs that can keep this deal from becoming an unrequited disaster, though neither helps the Mets in 2007. The first is Teixeira's contract status -- arb-eligible after this year, free agent after 2008. Yes, he's going to be expensive, and there's a chance the Braves lose him after a year and change. I see the odds of that happening as extremely slim, seeing as how the team's going to have big contracts (A. Jones, Smoltz) coming off the books during that time, as well as some likely resolution to its salary-stifling ownership situation, but the possibility exists.
Then there's the chance that the Braves gave up too much. The deal looks like it's Tex and 36-year-old relief pitcher Ron Mahay for stud catching prospect Salty, shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus and two more pitching prospects, one of whom may or may not be big lefty Matt Harrison. These were the top three prospects in the system according to Baseball America's preseason rankings.
Still, you can think that all three are going to be outstanding (and there's reason to believe in all of them), and there's still very little chance for the Braves to get screwed here. In Brian McCann, they've got an even better young catcher signed to a long-term deal. In Yuni Escobar, they've got just as good, really, of an SS prospect in case they need to drop Renteria for salary reasons. And Harrison, while nice, isn't a sure thing and may be hurt -- various accounts have him not even in the trade.
In other words, get depressed. Atlanta just beat out the lethargic Angels (Bill Stoneman, you're a dead man) and added an MVP candidate for the next six years, an absolute building block of a player.
In other words ... salt.
There goes the neighborhood.
Here we go, folks. No longer can we call the Mets "the most talented team in the National League." No longer can we gloat about the Braves' gaping wound at first base. No longer can we feel even remotely safe with the lead in the NL East.
Hotlanta swung the deadline deal everyone in my head was fearing today, picking up Mark Teixeira from the Texas Rangers for a tasty package of three top prospects. You know at least one of them, but before we get into that, a look at the big picture is called for.
It's a great deal.
It's the type of deal that wins championships.
And it's likely the type of deal that's going to keep the Braves in the NL East title hunt well beyond the Chipper/Andruw Jones Era.
So, you can tell I'm pretty high on Tex. The vitals are everything you look for in a 1B -- a switch-hitting big bat, slick fielder, young and disciplined. He's hitting a stellar .297/.397/.523 this year despite starting off the year in an awful slump (.223 with 2 HR in April) and battling some nagging injuries.
Unlike some other Rangers past and present, his power numbers aren't an Arlington phenomenon -- Tex's line from 2004-06 at home was .299/.380/.573; on the road, he put up a .278/.367/.526. Over the same period, his numbers as a lefty and a righty hitter are nearly identical -- the guy's balanced.
Basically, if he performs anything like his career norms (and he's shown himself to be extremely dependable), the Braves have plugged a huge hole in their infield. Without further ado, your 2007 Atlanta first basemen:
Scott Thorman, 585 innings, .220/.262/.402, -7.0 VORP
Craig Wilson, 141 innings, .174/.303/.259, -3.8 VORP
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 103 innings, .284/.333/.411
Julio Franco, 82 innings, .224/.324/.333, -0.7 VORP
Chris Woodward, 35 innings, .222/.254/.333
Just brutal. Tex is a whopping improvement.
Now, there are two potential costs that can keep this deal from becoming an unrequited disaster, though neither helps the Mets in 2007. The first is Teixeira's contract status -- arb-eligible after this year, free agent after 2008. Yes, he's going to be expensive, and there's a chance the Braves lose him after a year and change. I see the odds of that happening as extremely slim, seeing as how the team's going to have big contracts (A. Jones, Smoltz) coming off the books during that time, as well as some likely resolution to its salary-stifling ownership situation, but the possibility exists.
Then there's the chance that the Braves gave up too much. The deal looks like it's Tex and 36-year-old relief pitcher Ron Mahay for stud catching prospect Salty, shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus and two more pitching prospects, one of whom may or may not be big lefty Matt Harrison. These were the top three prospects in the system according to Baseball America's preseason rankings.
Still, you can think that all three are going to be outstanding (and there's reason to believe in all of them), and there's still very little chance for the Braves to get screwed here. In Brian McCann, they've got an even better young catcher signed to a long-term deal. In Yuni Escobar, they've got just as good, really, of an SS prospect in case they need to drop Renteria for salary reasons. And Harrison, while nice, isn't a sure thing and may be hurt -- various accounts have him not even in the trade.
In other words, get depressed. Atlanta just beat out the lethargic Angels (Bill Stoneman, you're a dead man) and added an MVP candidate for the next six years, an absolute building block of a player.
In other words ... salt.
posted by Cheddar Ben at 4:23 PM
2 Comments:
Sure..maybe the Braves will stick around longer..but the Mets are going to add that production in a resurged Delgado for the rest of the stretch, and it's now, baring injury, a lock that Pedro's back for September.
And it's not 4pm yet. So let's see if we get a reliever or not.
This is the kind of move that causes the hysterics to rejoice! Are the Braves better? Yes. Are they close to the Mets? No, they're not close.
If Texiera were responsible for 6 extra wins down the stretch, it would be one of the best Augusts and Septembers in baseball history.
On July 30th, the Mets as presently constituted were SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Braves. On July 31st, the Mets are SIGNIFICANTLY better than the Braves.
Post a Comment
<< Home