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Tuesday, April 17, 2007

New Braves?

Was out of service for the weekend, up in Massachusetts playing rugby without access to baseball or the series of tubes that make up the Internet. Didn't miss a whole lot except El Duque's headhunting routine and a skipped start for the Maine Event, which I was hoping he would get in to more quickly get over the bum routine he pulled the last time out.

I'm actually more interested in what's going on in Atlanta with the Braves, who are off to a fast-ish start, even after last night's 5-1 loss to the woeful Nats. They're 8-4, a half-game ahead of the Mets in the East, and were John Kruk's pick for "Most Surprising Team" on SportsCenter's Chevrolet Diamond Cutters segment. Huzzah, eh?

Of course, Krukie then alleged that we had to be optimistic about emergency Yankee hurler Chase Wright's start tonight against the Indians because, and I shit you not that this was his argument, Albert Pujols never played above the Single-A level. He did not follow up by gnawing off his own cuff links, but the effect was basically the same. I think I would have been ashamed even if I were a Yankee fan.

(And speaking to that, this Wright fella certainly has a chance to pull out a perfectly good start. Anybody does. Back in June of 2004, Admiral Halsey came up from Columbus and looked like a million bucks in his first ML start, a win over the Dodgers. The Mets creamed him a week later at the Stadium, but he went on to beat the Red Sox. Anything can happen, even for soft-tossing baby-faced trade bait.)

As for the Braves, they've survived slow starts from Andruw Jones (.186), leadoff guy Kelly Johnson (nothing) and the first-base platoon of Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson (each hitting .182) to run out to some good wins. There are a couple of reasons for this.
  • Frenchy is off to a good start with a team-leading 10 RBI, and he's already drawn five walks on the season. (Cue "What what what?" voice.) His rate stats only look okay (.265/.347/.465), but it's been a promising showing for a guy who needs to lock in some changes before he can ensure any real success.
  • Also, Renteria (.304/.385/.478) and McCann (.300/.378/.525) have started strong, although you might have predicted the latter.
  • Tim Hudson has allowed two earned runs in 21 innings, striking out 15 and looking for all the world like he's back. According to everyone covering the team, his split-piece is bobbing and weaving again, and his confidence is sky-high. This is obviously a major boost for them.
Of course, playing the Nationals four times already hasn't hurt either, which leads naturally to me saying I'm not halfway ready to revise my preseason prediction for Atlanta. For one thing, they've only got a +4 run differential (54-50) in 12 games, which means they really haven't played anything like a superior brand of baseball. The Mets are at 59-32 in one fewer outing, and looking strong as shit.

And even with Huddy returning to ace form, there are too many pitching questions for them at this point. Say what you will about Mike Hampton, but any innings he soaked up wouldn't go to the likes of Kyle Davies or Mark Redman, the only two pitchers to make a start ahead of the team's front 3. Not being a Chuck James fan, I don't expect him to carry his 2.25 ERA any longer than two or three more starts, and now we're talking serious trouble.

Unless the team wants to pursue a starter via a trade (something Schuerholz has been extremely reluctant to do over the past several seasons), their options aren't very good. They can call prospect Matt Harrison up from AA Mississippi, where he's looked solid in two starts to begin the year, and hope he adapts quickly. (The Phil Hughes-lite plan, and more on that soon.) They can stick with Davies for a while, I suppose, but he's going to be exposed before long. Otherwise, it's close your eyes and pray time.

As long as middle of the order stays tough, Atlanta has a chance to keep its head above water. Renteria, Chipper and Co. are certainly qualified to keep hitting at their current levels for a whole season, as are McCann and Francoeur. But any slippage there or an injury to Larry, and you're going to be looking at a whole lot of Florida or Philly in second place.

More importantly, let's hope we can get this game in tonight. Enough of this Nor'easter already.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice post. Agreed that it's too soon to get hot and bothered about the Braves, but I will say that the prospect of a resurgent Tim Hudson is cause for some concern. I'm still confident about our Mets though. When you consider our run differential in light of the power outage from Delgado/Wright/Alou it's all pretty encouraging.

1:40 PM  
Blogger Cheddar Ben said...

Agreed. No HR from Delgado yet, and that'll change with time.

3:11 PM  

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