Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL West
We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West. Today? You know it -- the NL West. In expected order of finish ...
The Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 record: 76-86
Peace: IF Craig Counsell, LF Luis Gonzalez, RHP Miguel Batista
What's up?: LHP Randy Johnson, LHP Doug Davis
Half-full: Hey, it's a bandwagon pick a la the Brewers of 2006. Young team, vulnerable division... that worked so well we're back to do it again. But the new-looks D-Backs are built to compete, with a deep rotation. We hated the Unit when he was with the Yankees, but you can pencil him in for a much-improved season back in the harsh desert air. He throws alongside the reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and a pair of major-league inning eaters in Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez. Then there's the lineup, which features more young talent than Brother Jimmy's on a Friday night. Start with stud shortstop Stephen Drew, the Tyler Durden to his brother's Ed Norton, and add baller Chris Young in center field, Carlos Quentin in right, Conor Jackson at first and Miguel Montero behind the plate. If that's not enough to convince you, take a look at Byrnesy's killer 'do out in left field. Fuckin' A, man.
Half-empty: Well, young guys are young guys, so what are you going to do? Even if doesn't happen in '07, it's not like the future isn't bright for this team. The bullpen is just as unpredictable as everyone else's, moreso because Jorge Julio (remember him?) is involved. Hernandez and Davis are good bets, but neither pitched ... how do you say ... "well" last year. RJ's back could turn into a piece of flatbread at a moment's notice, and you really need guys like Orlando Hudson and Chad Tracy (.281/.343/.451 and poor defense at 3B) to be no worse than they were last season, or else they start turning into liabilities.
Guide to hating: Julio made plenty of enemies during his short stint in Shea, let me tell you. It had to do with everyone talking themselves into the trade at the time, and then being wildly disappointed that Peterson didn't fix our new fireballing reliever. Does the fact that John Maine looks like a great consolation prize lessen our disgust with Jorge one iota? No, it does not. Don't bother trying to figure it out. RJ isn't nearly as disgusting out of pinstripes. "Nicest guy in baseball" or not, I've never liked former Yankee Tony Clark, even if he was a Met at one point. Still, having Byrnesy and Pittsfield, Mass. native/prospect Matt Torra around cancel out a lot of sins.
Additional reading: AZ Snakepit
The Los Angeles Dodgers
2006 record: 88-74
Peace: OF J.D. Drew, IF Julio Lugo, RHP Eric Gagne
What's up?: Gonzalez, RHP Jason Schmidt, CF Juan Pierre (shudder), RHP Randy Wolf
Half-full: Another team with a stacked rotation. Top to bottom, they're going to go Schmidt, Penny, Wolf, Lowe and Kuo/Billingsley, with the other waiting to take over in case of injury. Sick. You might look for a little more out of the pen, but fireballer Jon Broxton is probably waiting to be the new Eric Gagne, and Saito and Co. were perfectly acceptable last year. Catcher Russ Martin is a personal fave and a candidate to bust out with a big, McCann-like year. They've got a speedy top of the lineup, with Pierre and Furcal set to steal a bunch of bases in the 1-2 slots. They've got pop at most spots in the lineup.
Half-empty: I was really just trying to be kind there. You know your offseason signings sucked when the "half-empty" scenario is that neither of them suffer career-ending injuries as soon as possible. That's the dynamic we have going here -- the more Pierre (projected for a whopping .291/.338/.374 by Baseball Prospectus) and Gonzo play ahead of young fellas like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney (learning right field, or so we've heard), the worse off Los Angeles is. Remember, manager Grady Little LOVES former Met Marlon Anderson, so on any given day, you're going to have the worst three options starting in the outfield. Hooray! Again, Nomar and Kent are both likely candidates to implode, whether due to injury or motorbikes, and Wilson Betemit is a pretty ugly starting third baseman in the National League these days. Look for the GM to keep him and deal intriguing prospect Andy LaRoche for some other decrepit body.
Guide to hating: Ethier seemed like a punk during his trip to Shea last summer, so we can root against him. Just mentioned Nomar, so there you go. Heard Yoko's pregnant again, which is something. I'll never forget the column Bob Ryan wrote in the Boston Globe after Nomar's hammy vaporized when he was with the Cubs; Ryan wrote the sleazy, day-after "Isn't that a steroid injury?" column. He was up near me for a talk and we went out for drinks afterward, and we hammered him about the piece, which was pretty unfair. Ryan's defense was twofold -- first, everyone under the earth he talked to SWORE it was a textbook steroids response, normal muscles don't fall apart that way, etc. Secondly, Nomar had it coming. Nobody argued with him. P.S. -- I'm not including Kent here, who's so surly and unlikable that he's sort of lovable now, if you know what I mean. As long as you're white.
Additional reading: Dodger Thoughts
The San Diego Padres
2006 record: 88-74
Peace: OF Dave Roberts, 2B Josh Barfield, 1B Ryan Klesko, C Mike Piazza
What's up?: 2B Marcus Giles, RHP Greg Maddux, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
Half-full: Similar team to the Dodgers -- solid rotation, suspect lineup. Jake Peavy is likely to rebound to be a Cy Young candidate and at least the best pitcher in the division, and Maddux is good for his usual, with a boost from the pitcher's park at Petco. I'm not a Chris Young man myself, but a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.46 ERA (Petco boosted, of course), 164K in 179 IP is pretty impressive stuff from a 6-10 bruiser. Boomer is likely to thrive in a flyball-happy environment. Mike Cameron is a perfect centerfield fit for the park.
Half-empty: I just hate their lineup. Not one but both of the Giles brothers look done like dinner, and they had at least one guy, and maybe two (1B Adrian Gonzalez and C Josh Bard) play way over their heads last year in a non-replicable manner. Seriously, I'll be stunned if Bard's batting average doesn't drop 100 points. I don't mind giving 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (the prospect from the Barfield deal) a look, but he's basically in a must-produce situation already, with Mark Bellhorn and Geoff Blum the other options. Woof. Khalil Greene has become usless for producing anything other than Web Gems. Oh, and Russ Branyan is being counted on to play every day, which has, you know, never worked. Ever.
Guide to hating: Young is a Princeton guy, which makes him a target right away. You hear me big boy? From what I hear, our pet Yalie Ron Darling's going to make sure Guillermo Mota's got a little something for you. (July 16 ... save the date). Cameron obviously earned plenty of props from his work for the Mets, and Trevor Hoffman's somehow drifted into "distinguished future Hall of Famer" territory without anyone noticing. To be honest, the circle change is a hell of a pitch, and I don't know any specific reason to get on him, so I'll back off. I'm just not quite comfortable with all the feel-good accolades, I guess.
Additional reading: Duck Snorts
The Colorado Rockies
2006 record: 76-86
Peace: RHP Jason Jennings, RHP Jose Mesa
What's up?: CF Willy Taveras, RHP Taylor Buchholz, OF Steve Finley
Half-full: New Rox! Hold on. New Rox? No. Not as such. Believe it or not, nothing much has changed since the fall. Most of the best pitching staff in club history is still around, including young gunner Jeff Francis and sinkerballer Aaron Cook. The man himself, Todd Helton, is still in Denver, with potential trades toBoston and New York never realized. The face of the franchise is due for a rebound of sorts, which could go nicely along with matching campaigns from Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe, a true slugging duo in the outfield corners. Major surprise Garrett Atkins at third (.329/.409/.556) should do it again, and rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki almost has to provide a big upgrade over the pitiable Clint Barmes. Catcher Chris Ianentta (age 24) has a real fancy-looking PECOTA projection (.290/.377/.476) after a knockout AAA campaign and decent cup of coffee. If he's anything like that, he'll be a major asset.
Half-empty: It's not that Jennings, pitched to Houston for prospects, was the lynchpin or anything. It's just that the humidor thing was so weird last year that you can't for a moment trust anything about the Rockie pitchers' numbers from last season. I mean, YOU can if you want them for fantasy purposes or something. I'm keeping my distance from all of these guys, who could wake up back in the bad old Coors on Opening Day. We all know how Byung-Hyun Kim deals with adversity. The rookie shortstop isn't a sure thing by any means.
Guide to hating: Y2K correspondent and altogether good guy Denver Dave covered this not too far back. Being a Rockies fan, he was conflicted about Christofacist nonsense coming out of the Colorado clubhouse. We need have no such compunctions.
Additional reading: Beliefnet
The San Francisco Giants
2006 record: 76-85
Peace: Schmidt, OF Moises Alou, 1B Shea Hillenbrand, Finley
What's up?: Roberts, LHP Barry Zito, C Bengie Molina, 1B (?) Rich Aurelia
Half-full: Man, it's another pretty decent rotation, and an even younger one than the others. If stud righthander Tim Lincecum is brought up quickly, he and Matt Cain will provide a stunning young 1-2 pop before you even get to Zito. If he isn't, expect to see the other Barry and Matt Morris try to carry the rotation before they get distracted by a couple of bay seals. Ray Durham had a resurgent little season at age 34 (.293/.360/.538, with a career-high 26 homers), and could be almost as good again. Coming off a great two-year run with the Padres, Roberts is a dynamic pickup and should be able to handle center in San Fran.
Half-empty: Everything else is pointing in the direction of old and ugly. The addition of Molina makes the team, improbably, even fatter and slower, while Aurelia, Pedro Feliz and Randy Winn are likely to be slothful disasters in their respective positions. Bonds is likely to break the home run record, and his rate stats will probably look decent regardless of how hurt he is, but a pessimist would say that you're not going to get much else out of him.
Guide to hating: Good morning, Armando Benitez! Hope you're doing, ahem, well. Now, for the main event. Nothing I'm going to write about Bonds in this space is going to make a whit of difference toward what anyone is going to feel anyway, so make up your own mind about that. I'm going to continue hating at full bore. (What do I bid for a career-ender in the first week of the season? Be truthful, now. I bet we could scrounge up enough to send Sip to the stadium with a sniper rifle and a police scanner. "The Fan" was pretty awful, but hey...) And Zito is a whole different can of worms. I hope you're happy staying out there in California, you addle-brained surf zombie, but when the wind coming off the water starts spraying your curveball into the unfortunate corners of the batter's box, don't come whining to Y2K. You had your chance. You made yo' move. We would have treated you right, girl. Now quit all the fussin' and the frontin' and go out and lose 15 games. For poppa.
Additional reading: McCovey Chronicles
Predictions: Diamondbacks 90-72, Dodgers 88-74, Padres 88-74, Rockies 81-81, Giants 73-89
posted by Cheddar Ben at 11:43 AM
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