Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL East

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, AL Central, NL Central, and AL East. Today? It's the granddaddy of them all. In expected order of finish ...

The New York Mets
2006 record: 97-65
Peace: LF Spliff Floyd, RHP/annoyance Steve Trashel, RHPs Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez and Brian Bannister, LHP Darren Oliver
What's up?: OF Moises Alou, OF Ben Johnson, RHP Ambiorix Burgos, IF Damion Easley, LHP Scott Schoeneweis, RHP Aaron Sele (?), RHP Joe Smith

Half-full: That's right, bitches, we're back for another round of domination. Don't believe me? Sorry, that ain't my deparment. It looks pretty clear from here. The theme is improvement. You've got one of the bomb offenses in the league that just added another big bat in Alou, an excellent bet to better the production seen from the injured Floyd/Endy Magic combination. Then in right field, where nine (count 'em) different Mets suited up last year, you'd have to say some combination of Shawn Green and an improving Lastings Milledge can at least mirror what the team got there. That additional steadiness should cancel out any second-year struggles from Jose Valentin and Paul LoDuca, which I see as kind of likely if not unavoidable. But hey, here come the All-Stars, led by a guy who's going to build on his second straight dynamite season (Wright) and the MVP candidate who wasn't, Beltran. Jose Reyes broke out in 2006, and there's no telling what he's going to do in '07 -- he could slip back toward 2005 a bit, or he could shoot the moon and morph into a combination of Rickey Henderson and Barry Larkin. (Pretty heady stuff for a guy called "Mr. Glass.") Either way, you're dealing with one of the most spectacular commodities in the game, a guy I had little faith in before last year but one who might have more upside than anyone else around. There are questions in the rotation, but I see this team as putting up so many runs that their staff, like last year, can weather more than its share of rough outings.

Half-empty: Oh, boy, a lot can go wrong when you've got two 40-year-olds fronting your rotation. Blood clots, sore necks, bad hammies, AARP ... there's a lot of evils to consider. This site has covered the relative merits of Oliver Perez in some detail; suffice to say that the "half-empty" case for him involves a paper hat and a cone of fries. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are winners in my book, but neither has anything resembling an established performance level to base your projection off of. Can the Mets get into pitching trouble very quickly? You'd better believe it. The bullpen will be stung by the losses of both Sanchez and Mota; right now, it looks like Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis, Sele (in the long role, ahead of Dave Williams), Chan Ho Park (moving to setup) and righty specialist Joe Smith, which looks like a solid but essentially middling group of pitchers. Collapses from Valentin (recall those 2005 numbers) and LoDuca are real possibilities, and if Beltran ever does what he did last year again, the more'll be the surprise.

Guide to hating: Not around here, at least. A special shout goes out to Smith, a former North Adams SteepleCat (the summer collegiate team I covered up in Massachusetts) and a hell of a guy. The Mets snagged him in the third round of the draft last year out of Wright State, and he's been impressing the shit out of everybody in camp as an NRI. If he makes the team and contributes anything, it's basically a huge heads-up pick by the front office -- sidearming college righties aren't exactly hot commodities.

Additional reading: Look who yer askin'.

The Philadelphia Phillies
2006 record: 85-77
Peace: C Mike Lieberthal, 1B/OF Jeff Conine, IF Jose Hernandez, RHP Gavin Floyd, LHP Aaron Fultz, LHP Randy Wolf
What's up?: C Rod Barajas, 3B Wes Helms, RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Adam Eaton, RHP Antonio Alfonseca

Half-full: Have you heard? The Phillies are going to be in the running for a divisional title this year. Oh, boy, that's exciting! I see where the feeling comes from. On paper, their rotation is just as deep as any in the National League, led by an above-average innings eater in Garcia and flanked by two young guns with smoking stuff (Cole Hamels and the loathsome Brett Myers). Jamie Moyer is Jamie Moyer, and some combination of Eaton and Jon Lieber (whoever's healthy) will keep the team solid at No. 5. On offense, a decent outfield combination backs up a rather productive infield trio (what with two MVP candidates and all). Moreover, the team had the best offense in the league last year despite playing with out-and-out sinkholes at 3B last year, and they've replaced that bunch of clowns with a guy whose rate stats were .329/.390/.575. Okay.

Half-empty: Luckily, that guy is Wes Helms. Phew. As for the rest, suffice to say that Philly would really prefer that Hamels (132 IP last year) stay healthy and Myers stay away from family court; neither of those things is likely. The whole argument about Pat Burrell protecting Ryan Howard in the lineup is stupid; I'd prefer to see how Howard does for himself after what almost certainly was a career year before we start blaming other people for others' future woes. Also, their bullpen is a mess, the arm Tom Gordon's pretty curveball could disappear forever one a moment's notice, and there's nobody around to back him up, really. This looks, in short, like a typically disappointing Phillies team.

Guide to hating: Almost everyone, I'd say.

Additional reading: Beerleaguer

The Hotlanta Braves
2006 record: 79-83
Peace: 2B Marcus Giles, 1B Adam LaRoche, C Tank Pratt, RHP Danys Baez
What's up?: RHP Rafael Soriano, LHP Mike Gonzalez, 1B/C Craig Wilson

Half-full: They look like they've got a good front of the bullpen, led by Fat Bob Wickman and the two guys I mentioned up there. Strong to very strong. They say Tim Hudson's got his groove back, and I suppose I'll give them that, and Smoltz had yet another awesome year. (Although there should be a rule that if you want to suggest that Tommy the Spy is going to get old all of a sudden, you have to spend half again more time saying the same stuff about Smoltzie.) Brian McCann might be the best catcher in baseball by the end of the season.

Half-empty: That said, this talk about them jumping right back to the division title is stuff and nonsense. As far as I can see, they have holes at 1B, 2B, LF, RF and two starting pitcher positions. That's not assuming the inevitable Chipper Jones injury, or that Edgar Renteria has an acid flashback and thinks he's back in Boston, or even that impending free agent Andruw Jones gets traded away before the deadline for prospects (as is, I've seen repeatedly, rather likely). Caring people are concerned about our rotation, aren't they? Well, starters Kyle Davies and Lance Cormier had WHIPs of 1.94 and 1.75 last year -- that's what I call a little bit disturbing. Mike Hampton may smooth some of that out when he comes back, but No. 3 starter Chuck James is no cinch to hold onto his rookie form. The guys they're plugging in at some of these hole positions (Kelly Johnson at 2B, Ryan Langerhans at LF) are no more than okay until proven otherwise.

Guide to hating: Look, I don't hate the guy per se, but I simply won't have this conversation any more. Jeff Francoeur is a well-below-average player. End of story. The guy looks like a million bucks out there, has loads of power (.260/.293/.449, 29 HR) and given his age and strengths, has plenty of room to improve. But no amount of dingers or RBI make up for a piddling .293 OBP, especially out of a corner outfield slot, especially when you're defense is only so-so. He may or may not become a star -- he's certainly not one yet. Moving on ... Now that he's left the Yanks, Craig Wilson can presumably regrow his big, blond porn star mustache. Not yet, but soon. And, oh, Chipper ain't no good.

Additional reading: Velcro Vernacular

The Florida Marlins
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: IF Wes Helms, RHP Yusmeiro Petit
What's up?: RHP Jorge Julio

Half-full: So much young talent, so very good. Well, not all of it. Some things, like Dan Uggla's 2006 season, cannot be explained by the words of men (.282/.339/.480, 27 HR). But if all you have is a core of Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle, you might as well throw your youngsters at the wall in a glop and see what sticks. So, they found some winners like the no-hit king Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, and some duds (everyone they put in center field). It was the right move then and now.

Half-empty: One of the big winners from last season who may not be around from this one is Josh Johnson, he of the 12-7 record and 3.10 ERA at age 22. His ulnar injury may keep him out for the whole year, which sucks for the Marlins. His spot will be filled by Sergio Mitre, which is certainly my idea of a downer. Anyway, the back end of the rotation and bullpen will keep the team from winning all the games it deserves to, and Joe Borchard in RF is a pretty uninspiring choice. As of now, the team's going to go with a guy named Alejandro De Aza in center, and believe me when I tell you that nobody has ever heard of this guy. Nobody. He may or may not have been playing for the Hebrew Oilers last year.

Guide to hating: Dontrelle's offseason DUI put him on the shit list, at least until I saw him flash that winning smile again. Oh, Dontrelle, I can't stay mad at you! Just stay beautiful. Miguel Cabrera has a rep for being lazy and uncoachable and all that jazz, but I enjoy him as well. In fact, with Mike Jacobs around, the only guy I think will really get booed with venom at Shea is new closer Jorge Julio who, god willing, we'll never see.

Additional reading: Marlins Today

The Washington Nationals
2006 record: 71-91
Peace: 2B Jose Vidro, RF Jose Guillen, LF Alfonso Soriano, hope
What's up?: 1B/drug fiend Dmitri Young, LHP Ray King, RHP Jerome Williams

Half-full: Hah. Hahahaha. Hahahahahahaha. Hrm.

Half-empty: The thing is, they've got three or four young position players you'd like to have around, not counting the badly damaged and out-forever Nick Johnson. As all of us David Wright-philes know, old teammate Ryan Zimmerman is a complete stud, and one of those guys we can all appreciate. RF Austin Kearns and SS/2B Felipe Lopez were heisted from the Reds last summer, and OF Chris Snelling could do something in the unlikely event he gets any playing time. On the pitching side, there's literally two guys to care about -- starter John Patterson and closer Chad Cordero. Everything else is dross. Theirs may be the worst starting rotation ever. Close your eyes.

Guide to hating: Jose Guillen's gone -- plus. They treated Frank Robinson like shit as they were booting him to the door -- minus. That smug bastard Soriano left them high and dry for the Windy City -- plus. They may replace him with Alex Escobar -- big minus. Dmitri Young will add a sinister layer of discontent to this awful team -- big plus. Christian Guzman is back from his season-long injury to poison the airwaves of America. Biiig minus.

Additional reading: FEMA

Predictions: Mets 90-72, Phillies 87-75, Braves 81-81, Marlins 75-87, Nats 58-104