Y2K 2007 Season Preview: NL Central

What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.

We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks. Previously: the AL West, NL West, and AL Central. Today? The crapshoot in the NL Central. In expected order of finish ...

The Milwaukee Brewers
2006 record: 75-87
Peace: LHP Doug Davis
What's up?: C Johnny Estrada, RHP Jeff Suppan

Half-full: Oh shoot. Look, every team in this division sucks in its own, special way. Especially the free-spending Cubs. I don't see any particular reason for any team in this division to win more than 85 games or so; that could be enough, seeing as how St. Louis took the crown, then the pennant and the World Series trophy last year with a mere 83 wins. So, putting the Brew Crew in the pole position is just another way of saying that I expect everyone else in this cracked-out circuit to remain just as incontinent as they were in 2006. Let's just get that out of the way. For Milwaukee, a good chunk of their young guys were hurt for much of last season, leading to way too much playing time for schlubs like Zach Jackson and David Bell. They'll move Bill Hall to center this year to make way for either Ryan Braun or Tony Graffanino at 3B (hope for the former), and healthy seasons from the rest of the young infield are the only way they'll compete. Corey Hart is waiting for a breakout season in right, and if Kevin Mench can get off his high horse and agree to be platooned with Geoff Jenkins in left field, Milwaukee will have itself an extremely productive lineup.

Half-empty: Ben Sheets, we're going to need you to stay healthy. He pitched 237 innings during his nasty 2004 year (0.98 WHIP, 2.70 ERA, 264 K, in case you didn't remember), and has since gone for 157 and 106 over the past two seasons, albeit without seeing his productivity really slip while on the mound. You want to say you can get him back in the rotation for good, but then again, you also want to see "American Idol"'s TV ratings start to plummet. Hasn't happened yet. Aside from the general threat of injury, there's also the risk that Suppan returns to pre-2006 form and the team's top free agent winds up screwing over the team entirely. The risk level of this can be described as "high." I think Prince Fielder ends up pulling a Ryan Howard this year, but with a guy his size, the downside is always either the Mo Vaughn Worst-Case Scenario or falling through the rotted-out floorboards of an old building, a la Bam Bam Bigelow in the famous ECW pay-per-view match against Taz where they both went through the bottom of the ring. Anybody have any idea what I'm talking about? No? Anyway, Mo had his MVP years before it got to the end, so look out for Prince.

Guide to hating: I don't have much to go with here aside from Suppan, who I'm hoping beyond hope has a secret allergy to processed meat products that will result in a slow, prolonged poisoning episode. Exposure to Polish Sausage-210, if you will. That'll learn him. Starting pitcher Chris Capuano is a personal favorite, but the better they dump Mench, the better.

Additional reading: The Brew Site

The Chicago Cubs
2006 record: 68-94
Peace: CF Juan Pierre, RHP Jerome Williams
What's up?: OF Alfonso Soriano, LHP Ted Lilly, RHP Jason Marquis, LF Spliff Floyd, 2B Mark DeRosa

Half-full: Look at their 2006 record -- half-full is not being the most expensive failure of all time. (Insert "Waterworld" joke here. Gills!) But rest assured that this prediction assumes a full season from Derrek Lee, who'll split the difference between his 2004 and '05 production if healthy, and SOME contributions from Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, whether in the bullpen or in a few starts here and there. If that doesn't happen, then all the Tribune money their bed-ridden GM spent in the off-season will be good for nothing better than a bonus for the contract-writing team. Spending all winter locked in that office with their typewriters and green visors on ... cut them a check, Trib. Y2K's proclamations on Soriano might well be taken with a grain of salt after last year's crowing following the Nats-Rangers trade, but he's going to have to play like he did last year in D.C. if the Cubs are going to go anywhere. Marquis and Lilly will have to be better than mediocre. (Which they've, um, never done.) There's obviously plenty of name talent on the roster, but that won't get you far.

Half-empty: The Dusty Baker-inspired offense problems still apply, though they will be muted by Lee's return. Spliff's been known to take a walk, but you don't know how much he'll play or how effective he'll be. R.I.P. Otherwise, you signed two guys who could be OBP sinkholes (Soriano and DeRosa) and gave a third one also known as a slacking headcase an $80 mil. extension that may or may not cause him to go on the Prince Fielder diet (Aramis Ramirez). The worst-case scenario is all these guys post OBPs in the .330-.340 range (hardly outside the realm of possibility), and the lineup turns into the Angels' with slightly more power and boatloads less potential. The pitching staff's problems have been covered in too many places to bear repeating, but it remains a work in progress. A crappy work. "The Black Donnellys" in progress.

Guide to hating: Some of this depends on whether or not you're rooting for guys like Prior and Wood to finally make it back and re-establish themselves as stars, or at least get out of the sympathy case file. I'm not. You may be, and if so, best of luck, sucker. I saw someone mention the other day that Prior still has minor-league options left, which might be the funniest thing I've seen in a while. The big shot himself, chilling in Iowa or Omaha, trying to learn how to pitch again. Actually, that's kind of sad, but it's not something to let yourself get all worked up about. Marquis makes me angry in the way that all the former Cardinal pitchers do, and Lilly is your typical former Yankee with an attitude problem; thinks he's better than he is, and wants the world handed to him on a platter. I'm rooting for a rotator cuff collapse. There are good guys around like Rich Hill, Lee and Mike Barrett, who earned all the brownie points in existence for sucker-punching A.J. Pierzynski during the interleague fracas last season, but overall, it's an extremely dislikable team. With Spliff, we'll withhold judgement until we see how this thing with Willie plays out.

Additional reading: Cub Town

The St. Louis Shitbirds
2006 record: 83-78
Peace: Suppan, Marquis, 2B Ronnie Belliard, RHP Jeff Weaver
What's up?: RHP Kip Wells

Half-full: Better lucky than good, congratulations, now go die. In all seriousness, this team wasn't especially good last year, and they're going to be much worse in 2007. I worked hard to whip up a catchy phrase like "Carpenter and Pujols and pray for x," but you'd be surprised how much time you can spend trying to think of a funny x and come up with nothing. "Two holes?" "Fruit bowls?" "Zoo poles?" Nothing going there. So, anyway, their lineup is essentially unchaged from the one that won it all last year, which is a bad thing. You can expect a full season from either Rolen or Edmonds, and not both. Excitingly, Chris Duncan is penciled in right now as the everyday left fielder. If he continues to hit, that could be extremely useful (especially as compared to Encarnacion in the other outfielder corner), but even the best-case scenario with Duncan involves him being among the worst defensive outfielders of all time. He'll make Jeremy Giambi look like Bobby Rayburn out there. The rotation is counting on productive seasons from Mulder (done), Wells (blecch), Anthony Reyes and old friend Adam Wainwright (sucks, and never done it in the majors before), and maybe even juicer Ryan Franklin. This is not a recipe for success.

Half-empty: They're still saying Edmonds won't be ready for Opening Day, which won't help. These days, his back is just a little better off than that hideous guy's from "300." Playoffs notwithstanding, Yadier Molina still can't hit. Neither can Eckstein or Miles, and there's three spots in the lineup that look like wastewater. (See also: Astros, Houston). Encarnacion is an extremely poor man's Derek Bell without the speed (6 SB, 5 CS); but he won't be ready to start the season either, and now we're at four lineup spots where not much is going on. No Edmonds, a fading Rolen feuding with his manager, Swingy the Clown out by the fence in left, and the real MVP at first base ... no repeats here, folks.

Guide to hating: Everyone. Every single one of them. Especially the goy, Eckstein.

Additional reading: The Cardinal Rule

The Houston Astros
2006 record: 82-80
Peace: 1B Jeff Bagwell, RHP Roger Clemens, LHP Andy Pettitte, CF Willy Taveras
What's up?: LF Carlos Lee, RHP Jason Jennings, RHP Woody Williams

Half-full: I desperately wanted to put the Reds here, until I realized their only off-season improvement had been Kyle Lohse. Holy god, that's bad. Not that I think the 'Stros did a whole lot more to help themselves relative to where they want to be, but they're going to wind up being better than Scott Hatteberg and Co., I guess. The middle of the order is ostensibly dangerous with Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott, etc. Oswalt looks like he's in line for another Cy Young campaign, and the decision to extend him was an excellent one.

Half-empty: Getting rid of Taveras wasn't a problem per se, but they don't really have a centerfielder as it stands, which will hurt. Prospect Hunter Pence would be the best solution (PECOTA has him pegged for .279/.340/.490), but he would be taking Chris Burke's job, which won't happen for other reasons. Burke is a natural second baseman, but he's blocked by the decaying carcass of Craig Biggio (.246/.306/.422 last year, and a truly stunning .178/.253/.388 away from the bandbox at Minute Maid), who isn't going anywhere until he gets the 70 hits he needs for 3,000. Neither Burke nor Scott can really hack it every day in center, and you need someone who can, given that on any particular day (when Mike Lamb gets a start at first, for example), he could be stuck playing the gaps in between Lee and Berkman, the Chris Duncans of the South. That's practically enough for an MLBPA grievance right there. The flyball pitchers playing in front of this defense will suffer, and whaddya know, we got four of them right here. Especially Williams, coming over from San Diego; his ERA will get a bit of a bump. The offense has to account for getting nothing from Biggio, Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett, which is well-nigh impossible.

Guide to hating: Lee, obviously. Biggio is a first-ballot HOFer, an utterly unique player in MLB history and a good guy to boot, but at the moment, he's being rather annoying. The Killer Bs didn't go out in style. Oswalt isn't a guy you really hate, but if you have a minute, take a gander at this excellent Buster Olney profile of him from last year. The bottom line is, he's a solid dude, but he's about as hickish as hick gets. That can either be lovable (Wagner) or not (Rocker), but it's a factor to consider when deciding who to yell at while on the barstools. Ausmus, a Harvard guy, is clearly related to the pony-tailed dude from "Good Will Hunting." Hits just like that guy probably would, too.

Additional reading: Sports Justice

The Cincinnati Reds
2006 record: 80-82
Peace: IF Rich Aurelia, SS Royce Clayton, LHP Scott Schoenweis, C Jason LaRue
What's up?: SS Alex Gonzalez (the one that didn't retire ... not the guy who booted the ball for the Cubs, the other one)

Half-full: Just pathetic. If Adam Dunn hits every pitch he sees into Kentucky, the Reds will be in good shape. If gravity and common sense get in the way, they might need to get a little more from other players, which will be a problem. The rotation has the potential to be mediocre, as long as Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang don't regress, but it's not going to be good. The bullpen has the potential to be good, but it's not going to be great, and it would have to be to have much of an effect on the rotation. (Unless you're a big Dave Weathers guy, and if so, godspeed). I like Edwin Encarnacion at 3B, and Brandon Phillips will have every chance to do even better than last year, so there's potential there. But until top-flight prospects Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce are ready to contribute (in 2008, most likely), it's going to be ugly.

Half-empty: Griffey's out to start the year a la Edmonds, which means more Ryan Freel than most (but not all) would like. Eric Milton and Kyle Lohse might give up 80 homers between them, which probably isn't a record, but would be enjoyable nonetheless. Hatteberg had his last good season in '06, and is likely to slip back into awfulness. Dunn is stil salty that his buddy Austin Kearns was traded away, and may not give 100 percent effort ever again in Ohio.

Guide to hating: Got the Griffster, got Dunn (who strikes out 200 times a year), got a bunch of no-names nobody can get worked up about. Arroyo's coolness also papers over plenty of sins, so not much to look at here.

Additional reading: Red Reporter

The Pittsburgh Pirates
2006 record: 67-95
Peace: LHP Mike Williams
What's up?: 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP Tony Armas, Jr.

Half-full: Nope.

Half-empty: They're a Jason Bay injury away from winning less than 50 games. In fact, let's go ahead and predict that. I mean, I like Bay quite a bit (good all-around player, Canadian, says the right things), but this ain't about him. It's about a team with no prospect of going anywhere, ever, about to break the Phillies' record for most consecutive losing seasons in a couple of years. Zach Duke weren't no good last year (1.50 WHIP, 4.47 ERA, 117K in 215 IP) at age 23, and he's their ace. His young teammates are no better, so why bother talking about them? Their batting champ, Freddy Sanchez, just had his career year and it wasn't particularly spectacular (although 53 doubles was fun). Their shortstop, Jack Wilson, hits like Jack Sprat. Their catcher, Ronny Paulino, eats no lean. The X-Man himself, Xavier Nady, can feel free to lick the platter if he wants. We feel for you, boss.

Guide to hating: The front office and ownership.

Additional reading: Bucs Dugout

Predictions: Brewers 85-77, Cubs 82-80, Shitbirds 79-83, Astros 79-83, Reds 74-88, Pirates 20-142