Y2K 2007 Season Preview: AL West
What up, y'all? The season is rapidly approaching, and as such, Y2K wanted to give you a heads-up as to what's going on in the big, bad baseball world. There's a lot of teams out there, and a lot of ground to cover. But there are exciting, Y2K-approved storylines everywhere; there are heroes to madly root for, and villains to throw bottle caps at.
We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks, starting today with the alien turf of the AL West. In expected order of finish ...
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2006 record: 89-73
Peace: CF/1B Darren Erstad, 2B Adam Kennedy
What's up?: CF/HGH user Gary Matthews Jr., 1B Shea Hillenbrand
Half-full: The favorite due to a pretty decent set of pitchers and a stud group of prospects including Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood, who'll probably break camp as the starting 2B and 3B combination. Kendrick looked excellent in 282 ABs last year, and Wood knocked a total of 169 extra-base hits in the minors over the past two seasons at ages 20-21. The dude can slug. More prospects (Aybar, Morales) are on the way. Rookie pitcher Jered Weaver had a 1.03 WHIP and 2.56 ERA in going 11-2 last season, and he's just as likely as anyone not living in the Twin Cities to challenge for the Cy Young award. John Lackey quietly pitched 217 innings last year with a 3.56 ERA; he's even more likely to be a top starter.
Half-empty: Wood also strikes out more than Sip on an average Saturday night (277 whiffs over the same stretch), so he could easily turn into Adam Dunn without the precious walks. In fact, nobody on the Angels walks -- that's part of the team's patented aggressive approach, and it leaves them so vulnerable to dry hitting patches that they tend to waste perfectly acceptable pitching performances by stringing together quick, unproductive plate appearances. Hillenbrand and Matthews, the new steroid kingpin of Orange County, will only exacerbate this problem. Weaver looks like a damn hippy with his floppy hair, and can't possibly play as well as he did last year.
Guide to hating: Well, I suppose the most die-hard Metsies have to root for Vlad Guerrero's bulging back to finally explode into a million pieces. Jim Duquette's going to have to be vindicated one of these days, right? No? Vlad still went for 33 HR and 116 RBI in 2006, so vengeance may not arrive right away. Weaver must be hated for the sins of his brother. K-Rod's always annoyed most of us with those geeky goggles and hideous delivery -- if his labrum were to detach and land somewhere in Ventura, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Bartolo Colon is out indefinitely while rehabbing his injured arm, but seeing as how he looks exactly like Ramon Castro, we want him to come back for comedic value. Same with Casey Kotchman, who got mono and missed most of last year after trying to play through it. That flies a lot better when you're 15, not 23.
Additional reading: 6-4-2
The Texas Rangers
2006 record: 80-82
Peace: Matthews Jr., LF Carlos Lee, 2B Mark DeRosa
What's up?: RF Sammy Sosa, RHP Brandon McCarthy
Half-full: Were better than their record indicated, and that was with down seasons from slugger Mark Teixeira ("only" 33 HR/110 RBI), Hank Blalock (a crappy .286/.325/.401) and the wildly disappointing Brad Wilkerson (playing on half a shoulder). Blalock has supposedly finally started responding to coaching, and returns to 2004-05 form would give the team an excellent offensive nucleus to add to the Mike Young/Ian Kinsler keystone combination. The pitching situation is better than it has been in a million years, with free agent signings Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla posting excellent seasons in the Arlington bandbox and stud prospect McCarthy coming over from the ChiSox, where he was frozen out behind their wall of starters. Sosa could conceivably contribute 25 HR and remind everyone he used to be the most popular person on the planet, trailing only Ellen DeGeneres.
Half-empty: Far more likely is that Sammy flames out before Opening Day and forgets how to speak English (again). Padilla will turn back into a pumpkin, and Blalock will remain one. With pitching prospects John Diamond and Edinson Volquez (a 2.06 WHIP in 33 IP at the end of the year) still some time away, there's no margin of error for the largely untested McCarthy, who's got home-run and flake issues. That should make for some interesting quotes, at the very least. Oh, and how much can you really expect Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto to contribute?
Guide to hating: The backup plan for Sosa is none other than one Victor Diaz, the Mets' erstwhile Mini-Manny and a head case of some repute. I'll personally be rooting for him to succeed down in Arlington, but it's not at all unreasonable to feel otherwise. More importantly, there are tons of former Phillies and Braves (Padilla, Millwood, Lofton, Rob Tejeda) to really get some vicious ire behind. Especially Padilla, a sourpuss with a bad attitude who lucked into a $33 mil. sinecure during this bizarre offseason, and will probably shut it down and try to game his way into a playing-induced retirement. That would really chap my ass. Also, Y2K gives a hearty thumbs-down to the comeback attempt of Eric Gagne, formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the disabled list. He's thrown 13 innings since 2004 with a variety of injuries that would impress a professional wrestler (which all Canadians secretly wish they were, as it happens). The goggles, the sideburns, the attitude ... it was a little much the first time around. Now, if he could throw that pretty changeup without prancing around on the mound like a park ranger on two tabs, that would be another thing.
Additional reading: None. The Texas blogosphere sucks.
The Seattle Mariners
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: DH/paleontologist Carl Everett, RHP Gil Meche
What's up?: 2B/DH Jose Vidro, OF Jose Guillen, RHP/lucky asshole Jeff Weaver
Half-full: Think about Adrian Beltre this way -- .268/.328/.465 with Gold Glove defense at 3B isn't that bad a package once the huge contract cost is sunk (which it certainly is). King Felix Hernandez had a rough going in his first full season and is almost guaranteed to be better in '07, if not a Doc Gooden-class world beater. Still, that's on the table. They've got a top bullpen led by closer J.J. Putz (0.92 WHIP, 2.30 ERA, 104K in 78.1 IP), a smooth-hitting Japanese catcher, and a delightful infield defense led by Yuniesky Betancourt. What a great name. Ichiro is finally moving to center field, which clears the dead weight out of the position and opens up a corner outfield spot for a bigger bat.
Half-empty: When that bigger bat is Guillen, you may not have thought things through the whole way. Seriously, Guillen and Vidro had so much success in D.C., Seattle just HAD to bring them in. Trading fireballing reliever Rafael Soriano for a starter off the Braves' scrap heap wasn't only idiotic, it forces us to wish ill on both sides of the deal, and nobody needed that. There's not a tremendous amount of upside to be found anywhere on the field, and that's a problem when you were six games below .500 last season.
Guide to hating: Guillen is a can of worms, and lord knows he didn't get along with the rest of the NL East, but it's going to be so funny to see him regularly playing against the Angels (the team that notoriously benched him for the playoffs for mouthing off to Mike Scoscia) that I can't dwell on the past. Jeff Weaver will get what's coming to him soon enough. The real story here revolves around Ichiro, who isn't happy with the way the franchise is headed and is probably gone after this year. He's been dropping hints about this in the Japanese media and not at all letting on in the English-language press, which has resulted into some pretty comical moments in the Mariners' media room. Covering him is a running "Lost in Translation" sketch; Ichiro speaks with polite but noticeable steel in his voice for like three minutes, and the interpreter turns to you and says, "Ichiro is happy in Seattle, and wishes your family well." Damn it.
Additional reading: The cynical bastards aboard the USS Mariner.
The Oakland Athletics
2006 record: 85-77
Peace: DH Frank Thomas, LHP Barry Zito, OF Jay Payton
What's up?: Heterosexual C/DH Mike Piazza, DH Erubiel Durazo
Half-full: The opposite of Seattle, in that there's tons to project if you're of a sunny disposition. The team made the playoffs last year and won a series without getting much of anything out of Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby, their best young pitcher and position player, respectively. Full returns would position the team very nicely. It's the same thing all around -- Eric Chavez has been hurt and slipping for three straight years, but that's not to say he couldn't recover and have the MVP year everyone's been waiting for since "Moneyball" came out. Nick Swisher was extremely productive (35 HR, .372 OBP), and could get better. Milton Bradley could stay out of county and put up a .300/.390/.500 year with 25 steals. A staff of Harden, Haren, Blanton, Loaiza and Joe Kennedy (2.31 ERA as a reliever) has plenty of room to grow and flourish.
Half-empty: Of course, it could all fall apart, too, as I think it will. Thomas basically saved 2006 with a borderline heroic showing (39 HR/114 RBI from a guy who managed only 11 doubles and basically had to ride a wheelchair around the basepaths), and he's departed for the T-Dot to hang out with Nelly Furtado and the Tragically Hip. I'd like to think our boy Piazza could fill his shoes, but then again, I'd also like to think his marriage to Alicia Rickter meant something. And there's literally no reason to think the DL brigade of Crosby/Harden/Bradley/Mark Kotsay can stay healthy for a full season, which gets to be a problem when you have don't have any depth to begin with. With Dan Johnson and Durazo looking for time at 1B, they're going to have to play Swisher in the outfield, which doesn't help their defense. It just seems like the year it goes to seed for Billy Beane.
Guide to hating: Ick. Not a lot to work with here. Swisher and Bobby Kielty are of the Eric "Byrnesy" Byrnes ilk, lovable and endearing to the bitter end, and Chavez is one of the strong, silent types we all can appreciate. Visibly hating on Bradley is a poor idea for any number of felonies, er, reasons, and the eminently hateable Payton has appropriately moved to a team that fits his losing ways, the Orioles. Zito will be covered elsewere. There's really only rags left. Blanton has a fat ass, I suppose, and Huston Street went to the University of Texas, which automatically makes him an awful person. Still, he comes off as more of a laid-back guy in interviews. This is just a disaster all around.
Additional reading: Athletics Nation
Predictions: Angels 91-71; Rangers 87-79, Mariners 84-78, Athletics 75-87
Next: The NL West
We'll take you through each division over the next several weeks, starting today with the alien turf of the AL West. In expected order of finish ...
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2006 record: 89-73
Peace: CF/1B Darren Erstad, 2B Adam Kennedy
What's up?: CF/HGH user Gary Matthews Jr., 1B Shea Hillenbrand
Half-full: The favorite due to a pretty decent set of pitchers and a stud group of prospects including Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood, who'll probably break camp as the starting 2B and 3B combination. Kendrick looked excellent in 282 ABs last year, and Wood knocked a total of 169 extra-base hits in the minors over the past two seasons at ages 20-21. The dude can slug. More prospects (Aybar, Morales) are on the way. Rookie pitcher Jered Weaver had a 1.03 WHIP and 2.56 ERA in going 11-2 last season, and he's just as likely as anyone not living in the Twin Cities to challenge for the Cy Young award. John Lackey quietly pitched 217 innings last year with a 3.56 ERA; he's even more likely to be a top starter.Half-empty: Wood also strikes out more than Sip on an average Saturday night (277 whiffs over the same stretch), so he could easily turn into Adam Dunn without the precious walks. In fact, nobody on the Angels walks -- that's part of the team's patented aggressive approach, and it leaves them so vulnerable to dry hitting patches that they tend to waste perfectly acceptable pitching performances by stringing together quick, unproductive plate appearances. Hillenbrand and Matthews, the new steroid kingpin of Orange County, will only exacerbate this problem. Weaver looks like a damn hippy with his floppy hair, and can't possibly play as well as he did last year.
Guide to hating: Well, I suppose the most die-hard Metsies have to root for Vlad Guerrero's bulging back to finally explode into a million pieces. Jim Duquette's going to have to be vindicated one of these days, right? No? Vlad still went for 33 HR and 116 RBI in 2006, so vengeance may not arrive right away. Weaver must be hated for the sins of his brother. K-Rod's always annoyed most of us with those geeky goggles and hideous delivery -- if his labrum were to detach and land somewhere in Ventura, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Bartolo Colon is out indefinitely while rehabbing his injured arm, but seeing as how he looks exactly like Ramon Castro, we want him to come back for comedic value. Same with Casey Kotchman, who got mono and missed most of last year after trying to play through it. That flies a lot better when you're 15, not 23.
Additional reading: 6-4-2
The Texas Rangers
2006 record: 80-82
Peace: Matthews Jr., LF Carlos Lee, 2B Mark DeRosa
What's up?: RF Sammy Sosa, RHP Brandon McCarthy
Half-full: Were better than their record indicated, and that was with down seasons from slugger Mark Teixeira ("only" 33 HR/110 RBI), Hank Blalock (a crappy .286/.325/.401) and the wildly disappointing Brad Wilkerson (playing on half a shoulder). Blalock has supposedly finally started responding to coaching, and returns to 2004-05 form would give the team an excellent offensive nucleus to add to the Mike Young/Ian Kinsler keystone combination. The pitching situation is better than it has been in a million years, with free agent signings Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla posting excellent seasons in the Arlington bandbox and stud prospect McCarthy coming over from the ChiSox, where he was frozen out behind their wall of starters. Sosa could conceivably contribute 25 HR and remind everyone he used to be the most popular person on the planet, trailing only Ellen DeGeneres.Half-empty: Far more likely is that Sammy flames out before Opening Day and forgets how to speak English (again). Padilla will turn back into a pumpkin, and Blalock will remain one. With pitching prospects John Diamond and Edinson Volquez (a 2.06 WHIP in 33 IP at the end of the year) still some time away, there's no margin of error for the largely untested McCarthy, who's got home-run and flake issues. That should make for some interesting quotes, at the very least. Oh, and how much can you really expect Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto to contribute?
Guide to hating: The backup plan for Sosa is none other than one Victor Diaz, the Mets' erstwhile Mini-Manny and a head case of some repute. I'll personally be rooting for him to succeed down in Arlington, but it's not at all unreasonable to feel otherwise. More importantly, there are tons of former Phillies and Braves (Padilla, Millwood, Lofton, Rob Tejeda) to really get some vicious ire behind. Especially Padilla, a sourpuss with a bad attitude who lucked into a $33 mil. sinecure during this bizarre offseason, and will probably shut it down and try to game his way into a playing-induced retirement. That would really chap my ass. Also, Y2K gives a hearty thumbs-down to the comeback attempt of Eric Gagne, formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the disabled list. He's thrown 13 innings since 2004 with a variety of injuries that would impress a professional wrestler (which all Canadians secretly wish they were, as it happens). The goggles, the sideburns, the attitude ... it was a little much the first time around. Now, if he could throw that pretty changeup without prancing around on the mound like a park ranger on two tabs, that would be another thing.
Additional reading: None. The Texas blogosphere sucks.
The Seattle Mariners
2006 record: 78-84
Peace: DH/paleontologist Carl Everett, RHP Gil Meche
What's up?: 2B/DH Jose Vidro, OF Jose Guillen, RHP/lucky asshole Jeff Weaver
Half-full: Think about Adrian Beltre this way -- .268/.328/.465 with Gold Glove defense at 3B isn't that bad a package once the huge contract cost is sunk (which it certainly is). King Felix Hernandez had a rough going in his first full season and is almost guaranteed to be better in '07, if not a Doc Gooden-class world beater. Still, that's on the table. They've got a top bullpen led by closer J.J. Putz (0.92 WHIP, 2.30 ERA, 104K in 78.1 IP), a smooth-hitting Japanese catcher, and a delightful infield defense led by Yuniesky Betancourt. What a great name. Ichiro is finally moving to center field, which clears the dead weight out of the position and opens up a corner outfield spot for a bigger bat.Half-empty: When that bigger bat is Guillen, you may not have thought things through the whole way. Seriously, Guillen and Vidro had so much success in D.C., Seattle just HAD to bring them in. Trading fireballing reliever Rafael Soriano for a starter off the Braves' scrap heap wasn't only idiotic, it forces us to wish ill on both sides of the deal, and nobody needed that. There's not a tremendous amount of upside to be found anywhere on the field, and that's a problem when you were six games below .500 last season.
Guide to hating: Guillen is a can of worms, and lord knows he didn't get along with the rest of the NL East, but it's going to be so funny to see him regularly playing against the Angels (the team that notoriously benched him for the playoffs for mouthing off to Mike Scoscia) that I can't dwell on the past. Jeff Weaver will get what's coming to him soon enough. The real story here revolves around Ichiro, who isn't happy with the way the franchise is headed and is probably gone after this year. He's been dropping hints about this in the Japanese media and not at all letting on in the English-language press, which has resulted into some pretty comical moments in the Mariners' media room. Covering him is a running "Lost in Translation" sketch; Ichiro speaks with polite but noticeable steel in his voice for like three minutes, and the interpreter turns to you and says, "Ichiro is happy in Seattle, and wishes your family well." Damn it.
Additional reading: The cynical bastards aboard the USS Mariner.
The Oakland Athletics
2006 record: 85-77
Peace: DH Frank Thomas, LHP Barry Zito, OF Jay Payton
What's up?: Heterosexual C/DH Mike Piazza, DH Erubiel Durazo
Half-full: The opposite of Seattle, in that there's tons to project if you're of a sunny disposition. The team made the playoffs last year and won a series without getting much of anything out of Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby, their best young pitcher and position player, respectively. Full returns would position the team very nicely. It's the same thing all around -- Eric Chavez has been hurt and slipping for three straight years, but that's not to say he couldn't recover and have the MVP year everyone's been waiting for since "Moneyball" came out. Nick Swisher was extremely productive (35 HR, .372 OBP), and could get better. Milton Bradley could stay out of county and put up a .300/.390/.500 year with 25 steals. A staff of Harden, Haren, Blanton, Loaiza and Joe Kennedy (2.31 ERA as a reliever) has plenty of room to grow and flourish.Half-empty: Of course, it could all fall apart, too, as I think it will. Thomas basically saved 2006 with a borderline heroic showing (39 HR/114 RBI from a guy who managed only 11 doubles and basically had to ride a wheelchair around the basepaths), and he's departed for the T-Dot to hang out with Nelly Furtado and the Tragically Hip. I'd like to think our boy Piazza could fill his shoes, but then again, I'd also like to think his marriage to Alicia Rickter meant something. And there's literally no reason to think the DL brigade of Crosby/Harden/Bradley/Mark Kotsay can stay healthy for a full season, which gets to be a problem when you have don't have any depth to begin with. With Dan Johnson and Durazo looking for time at 1B, they're going to have to play Swisher in the outfield, which doesn't help their defense. It just seems like the year it goes to seed for Billy Beane.
Guide to hating: Ick. Not a lot to work with here. Swisher and Bobby Kielty are of the Eric "Byrnesy" Byrnes ilk, lovable and endearing to the bitter end, and Chavez is one of the strong, silent types we all can appreciate. Visibly hating on Bradley is a poor idea for any number of felonies, er, reasons, and the eminently hateable Payton has appropriately moved to a team that fits his losing ways, the Orioles. Zito will be covered elsewere. There's really only rags left. Blanton has a fat ass, I suppose, and Huston Street went to the University of Texas, which automatically makes him an awful person. Still, he comes off as more of a laid-back guy in interviews. This is just a disaster all around.
Additional reading: Athletics Nation
Predictions: Angels 91-71; Rangers 87-79, Mariners 84-78, Athletics 75-87
Next: The NL West
posted by Cheddar Ben at 9:32 AM
6 Comments:
Good job with this one Cheddar. You made the AL West seem slightly interesting.
Also, I ask you all to watch Jimmy Kimmel and Conan O'Brien each night before you turn in.
on a unrelated note, can we play mega millions or what?
WDBB -- I got the winning ticket right here pal.
Cheddar -- great job with this, but I really, really gotta argue with the barb against Jay Payton. He'll always be cool in my book on account of Game 5 of the NLCS when he got plunked in the head and shot right back up to charge the mound. I wish I could be that hard.
gotta disagree with you with the A's. They are a healthy year out of Rich Harden from winning the West.
Danny Haren will win 15-17.
They defend the baseball and they'll find a way to score the baseball
First of all, how can anyone pick the A's to come in last?
Second of all, and more shockingly, how can anyone pick the Mariners to not come in last?
Angels/A's in a toss up
Rangers a ways back
Mariners doing their best Washington Nationals impression
I suspect Cheddar's man-crush on Frank Thomas has something to do with the low projection for the A's, but looking at the predictions more I gotta disagree with them.
Lister's right, the Mariners are terrible. I really don't think it's possible that they finish above .500, but I guess if King Felix comes on in a Francisco Liriano type way it's a possibility.
I think the Angels will win this division; they've got a good club and management is evidently willing to loosen the purse strings for a big bat if necessary (see Manny, A-Rod trade explorations). I picked them last year and I think they're due for a rebound.
As for the Rangers, I suspect they'll be decent but truth is I don't know much about them.
Cheddar's man crush aside, it's really striking how bad the A's offense was aside from The Big Hurt and Swisher. Piazza will help, and it's worth remembering that his 22 homeruns last year came in only 126 games; provided he plays every day, a safe assumption barring injury given the DH role, he could potentially hit 30 this year. Or he could hit 15, it really wouldn't be surprising. If he falls off a cliff I think the A's are in trouble.
It's not like the A's, with Thomas and Zito, were all that great last year. They were 85-77. They've got no one new coming in other than Piazza, who's not a known quantity at this point in his career. And look, maybe I should have stressed this more in the post, but if everyone stays healthy, they won't be a last-place team. I just think they're too injury-prone to wind up anywhere but in the shitter.
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