Spring Training Wheels

A question I've been playing around with the last couple days: In the year ahead, is it even possible that the Mets could be as good as they were a year ago?

In order to answer that question, let me clarify a little: I'm not asking whether the Mets can run away with the division like they did last year. The formula that led to last year's cake-walk took two (or five) to tango. The Mets were great and everyone else shat the bed.

We can't count on the latter in 2007. I think we've all realized by now that the Phillies are the it-team in the National League. They're the ones everybody's talking about, the ones who keep on chirping about how they're the best the NL East has to offer.

Apart from the Phillies, there's some concern out there about a resurgent Braves club in the year ahead. The Marlins should be decent again. The Nationals will get annihilated, yes, but the rest of the field looks improved.

What about the Mets? It's a funny thing with the Mets -- a lot of people are worried about our starting pitching, but for all the thought they devote to how shaky our rotation is, rarely do they mention that it was similarly shaky last season.

It's certainly worth noting that a HUGE benefit to the 2006 campaign was that Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine basically dominated in the early part of the season. Pedro's started 5-0, Glavine went a ridiculous 11-2 -- it all helped conceal the fact that the rest of the rotation was breaking down all around them.

This is a team that relied on Jose Lima, Geremi Gonzalez, Alay Soler and Victor Zambrano for various lengths of time last year; could John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey possibly be worse?

I'm fairly certain they couldn't be. Well that's not true, Perez could be. I'm pretty long on Perez but he's actually been worse than each of those guys, except for Lima, for statistically significant periods of time.

As for the bullpen, I'm pretty confident we've got enough pieces there to have similar success this coming year compared with what we had last year.

What about the lineup? The lineup's interesting. On the one hand, the lineup should be better off given the addition of Moises Alou. Alou should help against lefties and is a virtual lock to provide more production than Cliff Floyd (RIP) offered last year. So the lineup should be better in that regard.

On the other hand you've got a lot of guys who had extremely good seasons last year -- those players being Jose Reyes, Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright and Jose Valentin. I don't think any of us expect as-good seasons from Valentin or Lo Duca -- what about the rest of the field?

I don't expect worse seasons from Reyes, Beltran, Wright or Delgado, but it could happen. Beltran had the finest season of his career year last year; Reyes was a .246 hitter through June 11; Wright has shown a troubling inability to hit for power since the Home Run Derby; Delgado is coming off surgery.

Don't get me wrong, I expect Beltran to have a similar season to the one he had last year, I expect more consistent seasons from Wright and Delgado (who nevertheless had fantastic seasons last year), and I expect Reyes to become a legitimate MVP candidate. Will it all happen? Well, it's not written, but the lineup should be stacked one way or another.

I mention all of this because I think some Mets fans have lost sight of the genuinely significant information that's available. Everybody's obsessing about the dismal spring training record. God knows I'm not happy about it, but in all of the discussion has anybody once mentioned that the Phillies are 7-13?

I remember how closely I followed Spring Training when I was young. There was one year there in the bleak early 90s when the Mets had a fantastic spring training and I was convinced the team was going all the way. Didn't happen. Why not? Because spring training is basically meaningless.

Players and teams use training wheels throughout the spring, trying to figure out what this pitch can do, or what this lineup configuration might look like. A lot of it is trial and error. Do you like to see players perform well? Of course. For established guys who will make the team one way ora nother does it really have any bearing? Not that anyone's ever been able to determine.

So the next time somebody corners you and starts worrying about how badly the Mets are doing right now, remind yourself that this team is very similar to the one we rolled out a year ago, the one that was the best team in the National League.

The rest of the field has caught up a little bit, but I'd be stunned if they'd made enough progress to close the gap on the defending NL East champions. Next year is now, son.

- A.F.O.M.G.