Billy Benitez?

I've been toying around with a troubling thought today, one which I first expressed on MetsGeek. I've been thinking about Billy Wagner.

I remember when Wagner arrived at spring training last year he was quick to let people know that he was a lousy spring training performer, traditionally. The idea was that people shouldn't read too much into it if he came into camp and struggled -- not to worry, the message was, it's like this every year and my resume speaks for itself.

Wagner went on to have a fine season in 2006, collecting 40 saves against 5 blown saves and compiling a 2.24 ERA along the way.

All of which is to say that when I see that Wagner allowed 5 earned runs yesterday, I don't sweat it too much.

What I do find myself wondering, however, is whether Wagner hasn't boxed himself into a corner as regards his spring training performance, mentally speaking. What I mean is, he knows he's traditionally been a poor performer in Spring Training, he talks about it openly, and then he goes out there and performs poorly in Spring Training -- it sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If it were just a matter of Spring Training performance I wouldn't worry -- I'm a big believer that Spring Training means nothing for established guys like Wagner means nothing.

Psychological hurdles that players set for themselves mean something though, and I wonder whether Wagner doesn't have something of a psychological hurdle when it comes to the postseason.

I mean, the guy is acutely aware that he's a poor Spring Training performer, can you honestly tell me that he's not aware that he's a poor postseason performer? If he is, does it ever become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

All Mets fans remember the pain that was Armando Benitez. Dynamite closer in low pressure situations, deer in headlights when the heat was on. When Benitez came into playoff situations you basically knew the Mets were doomed. Now ask yourself, honestly, how did you feel about Wagner by the end of the postseason?

For Mets fans it's only been one playoff experience, but for Wagner it's been several. 9.00 playoff ERA in 1997. 18.00 ERA in 1998. 5.40 ERA in 2001. 16.88 ERA in the NLCS last year with the Mets.

The misery index presented above ignores his 0.00 ERA in 1999 as well as the 3.00 he put up against the Dodgers in the NLDS, but even those stats don't change the bottom line: for his career, Wagner has been a lousy postseason relief pitcher. End of story.

My worry is that Wagner knows that better than anybody else. If he does, and if he internalizes it the way he seems to have internalized his poor spring training record, he may have established a psychological hurdle that means more than nothing. One that means quite a lot, actually.

- A.F.O.M.G.

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