All-or-Nothing Ollie, Our Main Man

(Note: A piece from Cheddar Ben follows this one from A.F.O.M.G.)

A funny thing happened to Oliver Perez this offseason. On the strength of an impressive Game 7 performance, an actually-not-that-impressive-but-we-all-remember-it-as-impressive Game 4 performance, and the memory of his dominant 2004 campaign, the man who has gone a combined 10-18 with a 6.21 ERA has become the beacon of hope for the Mets' pitching staff.

Mets brass feels its trade deadline swap of Xavier Nady (RIP) for Roberto Hernandez, with Perez as a throw-in, was a steal on the order of the Scott Kazmir desecration. Mets fans gush about his potential. Everybody loves this guy all of a sudden.

I do too. It's really impossible not to be taken with his potential. That 2004 season when he sported a fancy 2.99 ERA on the strength of 239 strikeouts in 196 innings is enough to warm the heart of any fan, casual or SABR'd out as the case may be.

But something occurred to me as I read Buster Olney's piece today. Buster lists Perez as the third most intriguing starter of 2007. Here's a snippet:

Now the Mets, who did not upgrade their rotation with veterans over the winter, are looking for Perez to rediscover his overwhelming stuff again, under the tutelage of pitching coach Rick Peterson. A bounce-back year from Perez might be enough to put the Mets back into the playoffs, considering the strength of New York's everyday lineup and bullpen.

First off, I don't think our playoff hopes live and die with Oliver Perez, but that's not my point here. My point is that I think we've really gotten ahead of ourselves here. Perez is a reclamation project. The guy's basically been a punching bag for two seasons. A rag doll. One of those inflatable toys who you punch and knock down only for them to spring back up again.

I think we've all forgotten that. We talk about our rotation this year and Perez is one of the guys who we all expect to make the rotation. We tell ourselves that he could be the ace of our staff next year, and for years to come yet.

And you know what? He could be. He could be all those things because he's been those things before. But he's gotta make it happen, and I wonder whether Mets fans are going to be patient enough to see him get beat up.

I mean, based on his track record the past two years, he could basically be a Jose Lima or Jeremi Gonzalez type pitcher, only with more potential. Funny thing, potential -- it'll get every fanboy on the internet worked up into a frenzy, but until you turn it in to something tangible, potential and two dollars will buy you little more than a one-way train ride out to Shea.

Please don't misunderstand, I'm as excited about Perez as anyone. I love his potential, I love the fact that he could be a dominant left-handed starter, I love the poise he showed in Game 7. If he starts out the season 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA and is blowing away batters at a clip that would make a young Pedro Martinez blush, I don't want to get any told-you-so comments. I'm with you on Perez.

But what happens if he starts 0-5? Given his performance the last couple years, that's decidedly more likely. What happens to the frenzied enthusiasm of this past offseason? Does it get tempered as Perez moves to Triple A? Do we tell ourselves that he can find himself in a low pressure environment? Or does it just go pop? Do we all start insisting that he be removed from the rotation never to be seen again?

I don't know. New York's a tough town, and it's rare that a loser gets a second chance.

Have a good weekend everybody. Before I go I want to give a very special shout-out to A.F.O.Mrs.G., who just got in to our fair city's two finest law schools.

There's still a chance she'll end up in the Cambridge area, but if she ends up in New York I look forward to converting her from the sweet girl that she is into a full on Mets-loving, Yankee-hating Shea Stadium devotee.

Congratulations again.

- A.F.O.M.G.

(Images courtesy of mlb.com)