Can You Throw It Like a Quarterback, Third and a Lot?

Screw all of the haters, man, it's a random thoughts type of Friday. Knamean?

Mr. Met = Joe Francis

Starting with the absolute best thing of the day, this NYT article from Lee Jenkins. Unlike many Mets fans whose bond with AAA Norfolk was forged over years and years of observation, I've got no dog in the affiliate fight. You can say that the response to the organization's decision to pick up New Orleans has been quite muted; if anyone's real pissed about this, they're keeping quiet about it.

Which is fine. I've got great memories of the Buffalo Bisons housing the Zephyrs back in the day. The club started off in Denver, of course, moving when the Rockies (New Rocks! Guest post coming ...) were anointed into the Show, starting up in '93. That first team had Jose Valentin and Jeff Cirillo on it, and a knuckleballer (Steve Sparks) who caught my eye 'cause the Bisons had so recently had Tim Wakefield around.

Oh, and they had a guy named Joe Kmak who we laughed at more or less constantly during games. Kmak. Ha. That's a funny name, Kmak.

Like I said, nothing against New Orleans as a baseball town, and I think it's great the Zephyrs will have a rich organization backing them up during the lean post-Katrina times. My only concern is the effect that being exposed to the Bourbon Street atmosphere will have on our impressionable young players. I'm looking at you, Mr. Thrilledge.

It's really troubling. You've got the food, which is incredibly fattening. You've got Spike Lee running around town with his lousy Super 8, filling people's heads with nasty and dangerous notions about how "the government" has "failed" the "black community." That's about as unhealthy as it gets.

Then, on top of that, you've got the whole circus of Bourbon Street, where even the most grizzled and respected veterans have been known to give way to the temptation of the moment and confuse themselves with a "Girls Gone Wild" producer. How's that, Jenkins?

Eager to make the woman’s acquaintance, Mr. Met tossed her a string of beads from the balcony, keeping with local tradition. So began the improbable relationship between New Orleans and the Mets.

What a pimp. We've just got to watch our back, that's all I'm saying.

PECOTA and Pelfrey

Baseball Prospectus came out with its Pecota projections earlier in the week. For those of you unfamiliar with BP or their predictions, they've basically swiped one of those computers from the Flintstones with a pterodactyl inside, a real top-class rig, and have one of the top performance projectors around. The short version is that player career paths tend to be extremely similar to one another; the pterodactyl identifies which other baseballers a player is most like, and extrapolates his stats from that.

None of these systems is perfect, or even 100 percent reliable, but this one is the best thing going, and certainly worth paying attention to. So, how did the Mets come out in this thing? As a subscriber, I don't mind sharing some of my paid-for information with you good folks, so here we go.

First of all, and perhaps most reassuringly, the system is halfway bullish on Mike Pelfrey, setting his weighted mean ERA for the upcoming season at 4.30. I think most of us would take that from Pelfrey, certainly.

Unfortunately, this projection doesn't think much of his future prospects, keeping his performance basically level over the next five years. Then, the system really tries to tell you he's going to flop. His top seven comparables are all losers (Pete Munro, Ryan Madson), and No. 8 is Kris Benson himself. Freddy Garcia shows up at No. 11, but so does Grant Roberts at No. 19.

Phil Humber gets more or less the same treatment. His WHIP is projected around the same 1.41/1.42 level, but Pecota thinks his ERA will be more up near 4.75. For the long-term, his five-year projection is disgustingly similar to Pelfrey's, and the only interesting comp on his list is Jon Papelbon at No. 11. And the system thinks All-or-Nothing Ollie will not solve his control problems, and winds up with a WHIP around 1.5 and an ERA in the 5.00 range.

Now, it's worth noting that this system is a very conservative beast, in general, and that unexpected breakouts happen every season. (What up, Uggla). Also, it's fun to see that Barry Zito's projected ERA is 4.20.

But for people like me who are fairly confident in the younger fellas' ability to step up and play well next season and into the future (notwithstanding these predictions), it helps to look at stuff like this. It keeps expectations at a reasonable level, and shows what other observers are thinking. I may not buy into, but I like to see it.

Shut Up, Buster

The rapidly-decaying mind of Buster Olney, on display this very morning, in regard to the trade that sent Adam LaRoche to Pittsburgh for Mike Gonzalez:

The Atlanta bullpen does not appear to be as strong as that of the Mets, but the Braves' staff is balanced, with Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano lined up in front of Bob Wickman, and a rotation of Smoltz, Chuck James, Tim Hudson, Kyle Davies and the recovering Mike Hampton. The Braves could reclaim the NL East if Hudson, Hampton, Smoltz, et al, stay healthy.

Sure, sure. They could also reclaim the NL East if a series of killer tornados swept through the Northeast in succession and wiped out every other team in the division. But I don't think that's about to happen.

To be clear, I don't mean to say the Braves aren't a threat in the division. But if they are, it's not going to be because of Mike Freaking Gonzalez, nothing more than a real nice setup candidate to go along with Raffy Soriano. Is this guy going to give Huddy his arm back or make Smoltz 10 years younger? Draw Jeff Francoeur a mental picture of the strike zone? No?

And you can call it "a great trade" until you're blue in the face; without acknowledging the danger involved in trading for relievers (certified unpredictable) or addressing where Atlanta's going to make up their first-base production, you're wasting our time. LaRoche has platoon problems, but he also hit 32 homers and was 10th in the NL in OPS. The AJC says his replacement's going to be Scott Thorman, who hit all of .234 in 133 plate appearances last summer. Shouldn't you, um, mention that, Olney?

Root, Root Root for the Home Team

Finally, for the weekend, Y2K has to take a stand on the AFC Championship Game. Our stance, and advice, is simple. Root for the Colts like you've got nothing else to live for. Alternatively, try this on for size -- root against the Pats like your life depends on it.

See, that's the one I prefer. You can tell the Lord's on my side by the way he's stricken the New England locker room with plague and boils this week. "Lo, Rodney Harrison fell to the earth dead, and it was good." That sort of thing.

It's possible AFOMG or Sip will chime in with a thought on the NFC contest, but I can't commit myself to rooting for either of these squads. Rooting for Chicago in the interest of keeping Y2K reader and dastardly genius The Big Fella happy is certainly an appropriate course of action, but it's tough to root against the happy-go-lucky Saints.

What I'd really like is for one of the Colts' defenders (Cato June, perhaps, or that exciting young safety Bob Sanders) to lay a hit like this on the Golden Boy.



That, in concert with a more favorable game result, should do nicely.

Enjoy your weekend, all.