Zito to Giants. Fuck.
Well it appears to be official. Barry Zito has agreed to a 7-year, $126 million deal with the San Francisco Giants-- $18 million per season.
The truth is, for Zito, signing with the Giants makes perfect sense. He lives in San Francisco, he knows the area, the weather's nice, they've got seals he can bark out to, they're willing to pay him an extremely large amount of money for a very long time, etc.
As a Mets fan though this just sucks. I really thought the Mets would sign this guy. Lou Monte definitely thought we'd sign this guy. Bright lights, big city, big bucks, big need -- it all made sense.
But it's not happening, and now we're looking at two options. One, we go into the season with the rotation we have. And what does the rotation we have look like exactly? Here's a guess:
1. Tom Glavine.
2. Orlando Hernandez.
3. John Maine.
4. Oliver Perez.
5. Mike Pelfrey/Phil Humber/Dave Williams.
Yikes.
I mean, I would have loved that rotation, particularly the bottom of it, in 2004. But in 2007? In the year after we fell one win short of the World Series? I'm sorry, there are just too many question marks.
The problem with that rotation is you look at it and you think of how everything might work out, but you can't reliably estimate how it will turn out.
I'd like to think that John Maine will win you 10-12 games, but you can't count on that. Oliver
Perez? All-or-Nothing Ollie? I wouldn't be surprised if he won 20 games next year. I'd also not be surprised if he won 2 games and once again had the worst ERA in the National League. Pelfrey/Humber? God only knows.
These are high ceiling guys, sure, but not one of them is a known commodity. Aaron Heilman? He's not a known commodity either, in spite of what everyone who points to his one 1-hitter would like you to believe.
So that's option one: a rotation that could dominate or be a complete and total disaster. Splendid.
Option two is to trade for a starter. Dan Haren maybe. Maybe Javier Vazquez -- feel free to shudder. If the Mets were going to have to include Heilman and Lastings Milledge in any such deal before, they'll almost certainly need to include the both of them plus Pelfrey/Humber in a deal now. I mean, other teams can't help but notice how desperate we are, right?
Trading players like Heilman, Milledge and Pelfrey/Humber would make us all wince, but sometimes trades like that involving players who seem so essential are the right way to go.
I remember when we traded Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel for Mike Hampton. I was thrilled to have a guy coming off a 20-win season, but I was nervous about losing Cedeno, who had been nasty in Y1.999K (.313 avg., .396 OBP, 66 SB), and Dotel, who had a strikeout per inning that year and appeared to be the future.
Don't get me wrong, trading Milledge, Heilman and Pelfrey/Humber is a much steeper sum than Cedeno and Dotel, but the point remains the same. We traded quality to get quality, and it was necessary, and it worked out, if only for one year. Could a similar trade lie in the weeks ahead? It's definitely possible.
This is a big day for the Mets. We missed out on the guy we really needed. Was 7 years at 18 per a price any of us wanted to pay? Probably not, but there's probably not a one of us who's surprised by the tab it took to nab Zito.
It's a shame though. I really thought he was going to come in here and be a star. I thought he was going to lead us to the World Series. But now it's not happening.
And for the Mets, with the rotation we've got right now, well, we could really come back to earth in the year ahead.
Our lineup is still nasty, and should probably be better than it was last year with Moises Alou in the mix and continued improvement from David Wright and Jose Reyes. But the Phillies have a strong lineup, too, and a better rotation than they had last year. It should make for a real tight race next year.
So fuck. Hell of a birthday present, Barry, you shouldn't have. Oh, and don't worry about the guitar lessons either.
- A.F.O.M.G.
(Images courtesy of mlb.com and sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
The truth is, for Zito, signing with the Giants makes perfect sense. He lives in San Francisco, he knows the area, the weather's nice, they've got seals he can bark out to, they're willing to pay him an extremely large amount of money for a very long time, etc.
As a Mets fan though this just sucks. I really thought the Mets would sign this guy. Lou Monte definitely thought we'd sign this guy. Bright lights, big city, big bucks, big need -- it all made sense.But it's not happening, and now we're looking at two options. One, we go into the season with the rotation we have. And what does the rotation we have look like exactly? Here's a guess:
1. Tom Glavine.
2. Orlando Hernandez.
3. John Maine.
4. Oliver Perez.
5. Mike Pelfrey/Phil Humber/Dave Williams.
Yikes.
I mean, I would have loved that rotation, particularly the bottom of it, in 2004. But in 2007? In the year after we fell one win short of the World Series? I'm sorry, there are just too many question marks.
The problem with that rotation is you look at it and you think of how everything might work out, but you can't reliably estimate how it will turn out.
I'd like to think that John Maine will win you 10-12 games, but you can't count on that. Oliver
Perez? All-or-Nothing Ollie? I wouldn't be surprised if he won 20 games next year. I'd also not be surprised if he won 2 games and once again had the worst ERA in the National League. Pelfrey/Humber? God only knows.
These are high ceiling guys, sure, but not one of them is a known commodity. Aaron Heilman? He's not a known commodity either, in spite of what everyone who points to his one 1-hitter would like you to believe.
So that's option one: a rotation that could dominate or be a complete and total disaster. Splendid.
Option two is to trade for a starter. Dan Haren maybe. Maybe Javier Vazquez -- feel free to shudder. If the Mets were going to have to include Heilman and Lastings Milledge in any such deal before, they'll almost certainly need to include the both of them plus Pelfrey/Humber in a deal now. I mean, other teams can't help but notice how desperate we are, right?
Trading players like Heilman, Milledge and Pelfrey/Humber would make us all wince, but sometimes trades like that involving players who seem so essential are the right way to go.
I remember when we traded Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel for Mike Hampton. I was thrilled to have a guy coming off a 20-win season, but I was nervous about losing Cedeno, who had been nasty in Y1.999K (.313 avg., .396 OBP, 66 SB), and Dotel, who had a strikeout per inning that year and appeared to be the future.Don't get me wrong, trading Milledge, Heilman and Pelfrey/Humber is a much steeper sum than Cedeno and Dotel, but the point remains the same. We traded quality to get quality, and it was necessary, and it worked out, if only for one year. Could a similar trade lie in the weeks ahead? It's definitely possible.
This is a big day for the Mets. We missed out on the guy we really needed. Was 7 years at 18 per a price any of us wanted to pay? Probably not, but there's probably not a one of us who's surprised by the tab it took to nab Zito.
It's a shame though. I really thought he was going to come in here and be a star. I thought he was going to lead us to the World Series. But now it's not happening.
And for the Mets, with the rotation we've got right now, well, we could really come back to earth in the year ahead.
Our lineup is still nasty, and should probably be better than it was last year with Moises Alou in the mix and continued improvement from David Wright and Jose Reyes. But the Phillies have a strong lineup, too, and a better rotation than they had last year. It should make for a real tight race next year.
So fuck. Hell of a birthday present, Barry, you shouldn't have. Oh, and don't worry about the guitar lessons either.
- A.F.O.M.G.
(Images courtesy of mlb.com and sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
posted by A Friend of Mr. Glass' at 1:01 PM
7 Comments:
I don't know why, but this just doesn't bother me that much. I guess I just was never that much into Zito as "ace for the next six years". Plus Vernon Wells money -- and the fact that this contract is IDENTICAL is probably no coincidence -- is along the lines of Meche-level overpayment.
If it's gotta be Milledge and Heilman for Haren now, so be it.
I wouldn't be surprise if Perez won 12-14 games (he's done that before) but I would be shocked if he won 20. His k/9 is great but his whip is garbage. You can't win if you walk the park.
Mark my words - OhPea will be a CY candidate next year...and will pitch the elusive Mets first no-hitter - maybe not in 07, but in time. Definitely before the new stadium, so by '08.
coop: if i had a dollar for everytime somebody said that about Victor Zambrano ("he's the most likely to pitch a new hitter of anybody in our rotation!"), I'd be able to pay Zito to pitch for us.
Nails, difference is, Oh Pea was good once upon a time, ZimZam never was!
it's a valid point. i still think we're crazy to get hopeful about him. Of the four, Humber will end up being the best pitcher, followed by Maine, Pelfrey, and Perez bringing up the rear.
Just play the rookies. They have to get in there sometime. Stop worrying. Our bats can back them up.
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