Starting Pitching vs. Relief

I don't disagree with my partner too often, but I do here, AFOMG. On the response board yesterday, AFOMG posted the following:

"Sip: I hear ya on Gil Meche, I can't believe he got that kind of deal.

That said, give the Royals some credit: at least they're trying to upgrade their club through starting pitching, which is a decidedly better strategy than the Orioles, who seem to think that the way to rebuild is through middle relief. "

I just think my buddy is wrong.

I don't think what the Orioles did is genius. I don't really love it.

And as Happy Will and everyone else in baseball will point out, relievers are far less consistent than closers.

But if the O's just pumped in $15 mil per to turn their 6-7-8 innings into the best in baseball, then I love that move compared to signing Gil Meche.

Again, who knows if Baez, Walker, Bradford, Williamson, Big Bird, Snuffalufugous and Jeff Innis can duplicate their performances from years past. But if they come close, then the Orioles have an awesome pen in front of an emerging Chris Ray.

Investing in bullpen arms has for years been a risky proposition, often much riskier than acquiring starting pitchers. That does not mean, however, that the strategy does not work.

From here we have to take a look at Meche. For $11 mil per year, you are not getting a lights out start every week. When the 28-year-old fireballer takes the hill, more often than not you're going to get an average start.

I'd much prefer $15 million devoted to a strong bullpen than $11 million to Gil Meche.

I would make a different argument if we were talking Barry Zito here. For $16 million dollars per year, 5 more than Meche's deal, you know you will get a strong performance out of a pitcher. You are investing in consistency and winning, two things Barry Zito has done in the past.

In my eyes, you take the dominant starter and three random middle relievers over the average starter every time.

This was always my argument for keeping Aaron Heilman in the pen. Why give up a dominant 7-8 guy for a potential 5 and at best 4 starter? All Heilman would do is eat innings. He would not dominate a game like he can in the later innings.

And finally my last point.

Imagine you are in the postseason, it is game 2 of the LCS and you are down 1-0. Is there any person in the world that is truly happy with Gil Meche throwing that game for his team? If there is, and he or she is not related to Gil Meche, then please find me.

Yes, I had some confidence when Shitty Trachsel took the mound in May, but I can't say the same for when he took the mound in October.

Come October, you want two things. Dominant starting pitching and a strong, deep bullpen. Average starting pitching in the postseason takes you nowhere but home. Yes, we saw what Suppan and Weaver did this last October, but rolling the dice on Meche becoming the next one of those two bums is just the same as rolling those dice on Aaron Heilman.

So to invest a ton of money in middle-of-the-rotation guys is even more foolish when it comes to the postseason. Would you rather have Barry Zito and John Maine going games 2 and 3 or Ted Lilly and Gil Meche?

With group 1 you have 1 start you think you should win. With group 2, you have two coin flips. Not to mention, in group 1, you are now saving about $5 million per year to use on say, a dominant setup man. You do the math.

In general, the postseason is won by ace pitching and dynamite bullpen.

Right now, the Orioles are 1 for 2 in this department.

The Royals are 0 for 2.

Victory for Sip.

Vaya con dios,

Sip