Baseball Economics from A(ndy) to Z(ito)
Late Friday afternoon, Andy Pettitte got paid. Oh boy did he get paid, all 14-13, 4.20 ERA, 1.44 WHIP of him, statistics he put up even though his team played NL Central powerhouses like the Brewers, Cubs and Pirates an inordinate amount of times.
In case you weren't keeping track, those three teams finished 27th, 28th, and 29th, respectively, in all of MLB in runs scored, and 24th, 27th and 30th, again, respectively, in OPS. If you're interested, the other two teams in that division, the Cardinals and the Reds, finished 14th and 22nd in runs scored and 14th and 15th in OPS.
Pettitte made interleague starts against the Royals, Rangers and White Sox, and allowed 15 earned runs in 17 innings, going 0-2 with an ERA close to 9.
In short, there's no statistic out there that justifies giving Andy Pettitte $16 million. Did I say $16 million? My mistake. You see, the amount of money the Yanks are throwing at Pettitte becomes particularly unconscionable when you factor in the effect of the luxury tax. Basically, the Yankees pay $1.40 for every 1 dollar they spend.
Factoring that in to the equation, the Yankees are paying $22.4 million for Andy Pettitte. It's completely ridiculous.
Perhaps the best commentary I've heard about the deal was made by some barfly quoted in Saturday's Daily News. "We spend too much on everybody," Sean Higgins said, "so why stop now?"
You know, I really can't argue with him. Pettitte's a fine addition to their club. If your team has a pressing need, with this offseason being what it is, you could do a lot worse than to fill that need with a 1-year player.
But just so we're clear, the Yankees just spent $16/22.4 million on their third (fourth?) starter.
Somewhere, Barry Zito is jamming some sweet DMB on his acoustic guitar. Somewhere else, Scott Boras is smiling.
Barry Zito will sign a contract worth at least $18 million per, assuming he goes for top market value, which all Boras clients do. If you told me his contract will end up being worth $20 million per I'd believe it.
If number 3 starter Andy Pettitte, a guy on the downside of his career, is worth $16/22.4 million, Barry Zito will command at least 18. I see no other way around it.
I want the Mets to sign Zito. Rarely does a player fit a team's needs as perfectly as Zito fits ours.
I was talking it over with the Hound this morning when I recalled a quote from Robin Ventura after the 2001 season.
Robin speculated that one of the reasons the Mets started slowly in 2001 was that throughout the entire offseason leading up to that season, there was a perception that the Mets had to do something to offset the loss of Mike Hampton. More specifically, they had to upgrade their offense. More specifically still, they had to sign A-Rod. Didn't happen.
There's a similar perception with this club. Pedro Martinez won't be in the mix until July or August, possibly not at all. The team pieced together a rotation all season, and limped into the postseason. In the end, it wasn't pitching that did us in, but there's still a palpable need for young, durable pitching. And that's what Barry Zito provides.
In order for him to provide it, however, the Mets are gonna have to provide him and his with a whole lotta loot. 16 million? Keep dreaming. 18 million? Getting warmer. 20 million? Nice doing business with you.
Ugh.
- A.F.O.M.G.
In case you weren't keeping track, those three teams finished 27th, 28th, and 29th, respectively, in all of MLB in runs scored, and 24th, 27th and 30th, again, respectively, in OPS. If you're interested, the other two teams in that division, the Cardinals and the Reds, finished 14th and 22nd in runs scored and 14th and 15th in OPS.
Pettitte made interleague starts against the Royals, Rangers and White Sox, and allowed 15 earned runs in 17 innings, going 0-2 with an ERA close to 9.In short, there's no statistic out there that justifies giving Andy Pettitte $16 million. Did I say $16 million? My mistake. You see, the amount of money the Yanks are throwing at Pettitte becomes particularly unconscionable when you factor in the effect of the luxury tax. Basically, the Yankees pay $1.40 for every 1 dollar they spend.
Factoring that in to the equation, the Yankees are paying $22.4 million for Andy Pettitte. It's completely ridiculous.
Perhaps the best commentary I've heard about the deal was made by some barfly quoted in Saturday's Daily News. "We spend too much on everybody," Sean Higgins said, "so why stop now?"
You know, I really can't argue with him. Pettitte's a fine addition to their club. If your team has a pressing need, with this offseason being what it is, you could do a lot worse than to fill that need with a 1-year player.
But just so we're clear, the Yankees just spent $16/22.4 million on their third (fourth?) starter.
Somewhere, Barry Zito is jamming some sweet DMB on his acoustic guitar. Somewhere else, Scott Boras is smiling.
Barry Zito will sign a contract worth at least $18 million per, assuming he goes for top market value, which all Boras clients do. If you told me his contract will end up being worth $20 million per I'd believe it.If number 3 starter Andy Pettitte, a guy on the downside of his career, is worth $16/22.4 million, Barry Zito will command at least 18. I see no other way around it.
I want the Mets to sign Zito. Rarely does a player fit a team's needs as perfectly as Zito fits ours.
I was talking it over with the Hound this morning when I recalled a quote from Robin Ventura after the 2001 season.
Robin speculated that one of the reasons the Mets started slowly in 2001 was that throughout the entire offseason leading up to that season, there was a perception that the Mets had to do something to offset the loss of Mike Hampton. More specifically, they had to upgrade their offense. More specifically still, they had to sign A-Rod. Didn't happen.
There's a similar perception with this club. Pedro Martinez won't be in the mix until July or August, possibly not at all. The team pieced together a rotation all season, and limped into the postseason. In the end, it wasn't pitching that did us in, but there's still a palpable need for young, durable pitching. And that's what Barry Zito provides.
In order for him to provide it, however, the Mets are gonna have to provide him and his with a whole lotta loot. 16 million? Keep dreaming. 18 million? Getting warmer. 20 million? Nice doing business with you.
Ugh.
- A.F.O.M.G.
posted by A Friend of Mr. Glass' at 10:54 AM
2 Comments:
The Mets can afford Zito and they will pay Zito, whatever it takes. The only problem with all this is that baseball tickets will get still more expensive and will increasingly be purchased only by corporate types or people with corporate-size wallets. Of course to baseball management this isn't a problem. They'll sell a few seats for cheap up in the top rows of the upper deck so that the people on the short end of the economic spectrum can (arguably) still go to a game but mostly people who have to think twice -- or couldn't begin to think -- about dropping a couple hundred dollars for an evenings's entertainment will watch on TV (where they can do their fair share by driving up advertising rates). Incidentally, when we sat up there in the very top row of the upper deck for a playoff game this year the spirit was way better, far more positive to my ear, than it is down in the field boxes. So the live participation of a bunch of hardcore fans who don't happen to be affluent is what will be lost at the end of the day. Does that matter? Depends on your point of view. I'm sure management would point out that they aren't running a charity (though they'd put it more diplomatically), and they'd be right.
There was a time 40 years ago when the US Tennis Championships were played at Forest Hills in a small stadium and on field courts (a couple of which had small seating areas, others you just stood and watched), the fans paid a few bucks to get in and were all highly knowledgeable, deeply appreciative tennis people (not a corporate type in sight, at least none who weren't serious tennis players)-- and look at it now. Kind of like a corporate convention with kids invited. Of course the players now get to compete for huge bucks and obviously wouldn't have it any other way. They're not in the charity business either. A similar process started around the same time in baseball, and is now well advanced. Inevitable.
Maybe none of this does matter. However, if you want to see what happens when you let the real fans come to the game, there was a very interesting illustration a few years back when the 2001 Wimbledon final on Sunday afternoon was postponed due to a rainy weekend. There are no rain checks per long-standing Wimbledon policy and so a first-come first serve mob got to attend the "People's Final" on Monday, instead of the $1,000/seat crowd who obviously were not about to wait in line overnight. By every account, and I watched the whole thing on TV, it was the most amazingly electric atmosphere anyone had ever seen at Wimbledon. The crowd helped propel the players (Goran Ivanisevic v. Patrick Rafter) to dazzling heights and it was one of the greatest matches, and definitely the greatest crowd, I have ever seen.
What is the rumor on Trachsel and Zambrano?
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