One Up, One Down

(Note: Immediately following this post is our first Section 423 column about the Knicks, which will appear every Wednesday.)

There were two major stories regarding the Mets' pitching staff next season, one positive, one negative.

Let's start with the bad. About an hour ago now it was revealed that Guillermo Mota was in violation of MLB's drug policy. It is unclear as of now whether Mota was using recreational drugs or performance enhancers, but it's probably safe to assume he was roiding.

Like we didn't see that one coming. Seriously, it didn't seem the least bit suspicious to you that the guy was lit up all year until he came to the Mets and magically started dominating? Please. Most obvious juicer this side of Yusaku Iriki.

Anyway, the immediate assumption in the blogosphere is that Mota's suspension essentially assures that Aaron Heilman, who figured to be dangled in trade discussions, will return to the Mets' bullpen in 2007.

I'm not as sure as everyone else seems to be. Don't get me wrong, I think that's probably likely, but if Dontrelle Willis could be had for a package including Aaron Heilman, I don't think the bullpen uncertainty would dissuade Omar one bit.

Remember that both Duaner Sanchez and Juan Padilla, who was excellent for the Mets in 2005 before being lost for the season in 2006, figure to be back in the mix in 2007. Both are coming off injuries, and to that extent both are question marks, but they do provide flexibility.

Besides those two, there's always a number of relievers available in the offseason, and even if none of them would be as good as Heilman, one could probably come close.

So what's it all mean for Heilman? For my money, it means he's more likely to stay, more certain not to start, but equally as certain to be included in any offers for a frontline starting pitcher.

That may not sound earthshattering, but coming into the day I'd have said that our bullpen next year was likely to center around a Mota-Sanchez-Wagner triumvirate, but now I think we're back to Heilman-Sanchez-Wagner.

Personally, I'm more interested in seeing what kind of market there is for a free agent like Mota now. Has there ever been a free agent staring down a 50-game suspension who was the subject of a bidding war? What happens to Mota's value now? It'll be interesting to watch.

Meanwhile, the Daily News reported today that the Mets were in negotiations to lock up Tom Glavine for another season, at $12.5 million. What's that? Oh, it's a 2-year deal? Strange.

Yes, from the same people who brought you Julio Franco's bidding-against-ourselves 2-year contract comes Tommy Ballgame's rumored 2-year pact. Morons!

Actually, I'm fine with this deal. I'll concede that I find it a bit odd that it's going to take $12.5 million annually to lock up Glavine (I was thinking something more in the 10-11.5 range).

But the guy's hungry, he's proven he can handle New York (even if it took a couple years for him to do so), and the truth is that he basically has the same season every year, and with a good team around him, that season is good for 15-plus wins.

I think Glavine answered all questions about his second half dropoff (really, it was a July swoon more than anything) with his strong September/October.

More important than anything, the guy is a rock. He's the leader of the staff and a leader in the clubhouse. Barry Zito's a lot of things, but between his personality and the transition to New York, I doubt he'd have been either in 2007.

Assuming the Mets lock up Glavine, I don't think that takes us out of the Zito sweepstakes altogether, but it changes things somewhat. It's been reported that there's a feeling in the organization that Zito isn't worth ace-type money, and that there is little benefit in having two crafty pitchers at the top of your rotation.

Put simply, my sense is they want a guy with some fucking heat. Zito isn't that guy. Retaining Glavine doesn't change the pitcher Zito is, of course, but it probably does change how highly the Mets organization values him.

If we get edged out of the Daisuke Matsuzake sweepstakes, then I could see us making a strong push for Zito. But as for now, with Glavine back in the mix, look for the Mets to make finding themselves a hard thrower their top priority.

Anyway, so much excitement for a Wednesday in early November, just wait until things really start heating up. There's life after the postseason after all.

- A.F.O.M.G.