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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

If Not Now, When?

(Note: The latest in our Section 423 series on the Knicks appears immediately below this post by A.F.O.M.G.)

An uneasy quiet has descended upon the Mets' offseason. It's the kind of quiet many Mets fans had probably forgotten about given the offseason bounties of 2004, when Omar Minaya swooped up Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, and 2005, when he strung together Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Billy Wagner.

So what do you do for an encore? Well, so far the answer has been not a hell of a whole lot. Basically the Mets' offseason acquisitions come down to Moises Alou, Jose Valentin and Orlando Hernandez.

Moises Alou? I think it's a great signing. He's a bit long in the tooth, but the guy can rake, and his specialty was the Mets' weakness in 2006. He punishes lefties. Our deficiency in this area had to be addressed. It was a good move (RIP Cliff Floyd).

$3.8 million for Jose Valentin? Geez... that's a lot of money. It's more money than I would have thought was necessary, but the truth is I wasn't in love with any of the free agent second basemen, and would have been wary of handing over a long-term deal.

Two years for El Duque? Well, one would have been better, but if it took two to get the job done, so be it. I liked what he showed us last year, and if he can stay healthy (a big if, considering he was injured twice in four months as a Met), he's worth the money.

And that's about it. Sure, there have been other moves along the way, but nothing splashy like when the Mets landed Pedro or Delgado.

And for a lot of people that's just as well. Look at the market, they say, it's crazy out there right now.

You know, they're right. It is crazy out there right now. I find myself wondering though whether the Mets wouldn't do well to check into the asylum.

Look, I'm glad the Mets didn't go 8 years for Alfonso Soriano -- 1 year of Alou is a much better deal. And believe me, I think the people who gave that kind of money and those kind of years to Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. have no business running a professional baseball team.

But that's all in the past now, and all that's left is the reality that the market is out of whack. Unfortunately for the Mets, that reality is at loggerheads with the reality of the club's construction, and ultimately, I think it's the latter reality that needs to loom largest.

This is a team that's built to win now. We made it to Game 7 of the NLCS last year, and I doubt there's anybody reading this who thinks we weren't the best team in the National League in 2006.

But we've also got some pretty glaring holes. We just lost one of our set-up men (Chad Bradford), it appears we have no interest in re-signing our long man (Darren Oliver), and it looks like we may well lose our only healthy ace pitcher (Tom Glavine) to his long lost love.

Where does that leave the Mets? We've still got $50 million invested in four players. We've still got an offense that's built to win now.

We've also still got a shoddy pitching staff. Right now there's El Duque and John Maine, neither of whom is exactly a known quantity. Beyond them, well, there's promising kids like Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, and Oliver Perez, but is this really the group we want to go to war with?

When we as fans think about the price tag that will come along with Barry Zito, I think we should bear in mind the constitution of this team.

Think of Delgado, who mashes dongs now but for how much longer? Think of Lo Duca, who picks winners by day and takes pitches by night -- how many more years are left in those knees? Think of Wagner -- how long before he tends to those alpacas full time?

And think of the Mets. Sure, we've got guys like Jose Reyes and David Wright. Yes, Beltran should have many good years left. And OK, there's talented young pitching in the Mets' system.

But this is a team that came close to a championship last year; isn't there an obligation to build on that?

They're saying it's going to take between 5 and 7 years and $75-110 million to get Zito. That's $15 million per for a lot of years, and I get that he's probably not worth it in and of himself.

But this isn't just about him, it's about the Mets, too. It's about the team we are right now and the team we would be with him in the fold. We all know how much more better this team would be with Zito in the fold.

And let's none of us forget that this is a guy who has won a Cy Young Award, who would be going to the National League, and who would be reuniting with the pitching coach whose departure coincided with the onset of his "struggles" three years ago.

It'd be a somewhat different story if there were a major free agent pitcher available in 2008 that I was excited about, but there isn't, or there isn't one who I think will be available to the Mets. Carlos Zambrano is the name that stands out the most to me, but somehow I just don't see it happening.

There are always trades to be made and smaller signings to measure, but crazy market and all, I think the Mets have to be prepared to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Barry Zito.

And I think when they do, we as fans should appreciate how close we came last year, and how 15 million dollars for one pitcher may ultimately make good on the 90 million dollars spent on 24 other guys.

- A.F.O.M.G.

5 Comments:

Anonymous lister said...

very sensible stuff here today glassy. great work.

zito will be a met at 6Y/100M.

it's too much, but so is every signing this offseason. it makes too much sense, and it's only money after all.

3:27 PM  
Blogger Ed in Westchester said...

Zito will win 20 with the Mets next year.
Omar will trade for/sign another starter, even if Glavine comes back.
In 2008, Humber and Pelfrey will be ready to step up. Zito will still be there. There are a number of FA outfielders available after next season.
Catcher is the only long term concern in my opinion.
3 years for Bradford is 1 year too long.
In Omar I Trust.

4:10 PM  
Blogger Happy Will said...

If the Mets don't bring Glavine back, they can sign Zito and their payroll barely increases. Given that they've signed a 20mil year deal with Citibank, have a network that is doing well, set an attendance record last year and are building a new stadium that will be a cash cow, they are FLUSH with cash. Go get him, we can absolutely afford it.

4:14 PM  
Blogger worndownboyboy said...

Good points on Zito coming here(League plus reuniting with barechested in jacket mulletman)
Stand pat O, except with Zito(well try, until it gets nutz($)).

4:24 PM  
Blogger Sippy Momo said...

Its going to get nuts.

If Zito goes somewhere for 5 years it will be for 80 mil.

the market is 15 per, he will get more than that.

They always do.

Jake westbrook would like solid in orange and blue come 2008. Always looking to bring in some tribesman.

Most importantly, WHERE IS THE STEVE TRACHSEL EXTENSION TALK?

4:57 PM  

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