NLCS, Fool

Well, slap my ass and call me Nancy, the Cardinals have made Jeff Weaver their Game 1 starter for Wednesday night. No, not that Weaver. You're thinking of the good one. He plays for the Angels.

This is his older, less talented brother, knocked out of the hellhole that is Anaheim by his own flesh and blood. That hurt. Of course, when you slap up a 6.29 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 16 starts, you're lucky to get a gig tossing bullpen sessions in Indianapolis.

But here he is in a prime spot in the NLCS, thrust into a matchup between our Mets and the Cardinals just calling for a position-by-position breakdown, Y2K-style. Let's dance.

Catcher
Yadier Molina (.216/.274/.321) vs. Paul LoDuca (.318/.355/.428)

First of all, I can't imagine Yady stacks up to Paulie in the trim department. Let's not be silly, here. His advantages include a rocket arm (his throw to nail Dave Roberts Sunday night might as well have come out of a howitzer; inches off the ground, front corner of the bag ... unreal) and a bevy of catching brothers who can, I don't know, offer him advice in between innings, like on “Home Improvement.”

Unfortunately for him, he hits like a traditional catcher, which is to say like Mike DiFelice. On the other hand, Brooklyn's own Paul LoDuca finished sixth in the league in batting, and completely side-stepped his anticipated second-half swoon. Keeping away from the track and local malt shoppes can do that for you.

He avoids strikeouts, takes pitches for Reyes, and is decent behind the plate. And he looked like a million bucks during the NLDS.

Advantage: Mets

First base
Albert Pujols (.331/.431/.697) vs. Carlos Delgado (.265/.361/.548)

Mr. Delgado offered his take on the relative value of “playoff experience” in Game 1 against L.A., going 4 for 5 and sending Derek Lowe to the corner barstool early. Yeah, he looked intimidated. His bat disappeared for long stretches of the year, his fielding at first resembles Mike Piazza's, and he's not exactly fleet of foot on the basepaths. He's also been the leader and big bopper the Mets needed in the middle of the lineup, and a million percent improvement from what the team had in recent years.

And then there's Mr. Poo Holes, whose reflection Brad Lidge sees everytime he looks in the mirror. He was going to shatter the home run mark before getting banged up in early June and missing 20 days. He still jacked 49 balls out of the park during the regular season, and then introduced Jake Peavy to the postseason with a two-run shot in the fourth inning of his Game 1.

To the extent the Mets pitchers can avoid him, they should. In a 7-game series, he may see Chad Bradford seven times.

Advantage: Cardinals

Second base
Ronnie Belliard (.237/.295/.371) vs. Jose Valentin (271/.330/.490)

Belliard is fat, has crap hair, and has really not worked out that well since coming over from Cleveland as a replacement for Aaron Miles. That Miles is equally bad doesn't speak well for the Cards' scouting department.

Valentin, on the other hand, has short hair, a nicely-cropped mustache, and plenty of pop in his bat. His circus routine from Game 1 aside, his defense at second has been extremely decent for a guy who never played there before this year.

Going hitless for the Dodgers series wasn't great, but he scored two runs in Game 2 and given his severe platoon splits, should bounce back against the Cards' heavily right-handed staff. Jeff Suppan, you're warned.

Advantage: Mets

Third base
Scott Rolen (.296/.369/.518) vs. David Wright (311/.381/.531)

Wright has been compared to Rolen more times than I care to recount, but the connections are too obvious to pass up. Both have the same athletic approach, both are line drive-type hitters (not pure home run strokes), both have strong jaw lines and All-American appeal. Somebody hose Erin Andrews down.

Of course, Wright has put up basically identical back-to-back seasons, whereas Rolen had to come back from an injury-plagued 2005 to put up his lowest OPS in a St. Louis uniform, in a still extremely productive season.

Most recently, he lied about the severity of his nagging shoulder injury and had to yank himself out of Game 4, which led to LaRussa bitching about him to the press. Nice. He took an anti-inflammatory shot, but discomfort could persist.

Plus, it should be noted that Rolen has had a rough time in the playoffs, including a .190 average in 63 career at-bats and an 0-fer in the 2004 World Series that had Redbirds fans doing some of that genteel, polite Midwestern griping they do every leap year. All things being equal, this could conceivably be a push, but D-Wright is too healthy and too charismatic for that.

Advantage: Mets

Shortstop
David Eckstein (.292/.350/.344) vs. Jose Reyes (.300/.354/.487)

Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose ... Jose, Jose. And repeat. Do they have a cheer for Eckstein, who stole seven bases and was caught six times? They do not. These are the perks of leading MLB in swipes.

Reyes and Eckstein had the same OBPs this year, and that's where the comparison stops. The lil' fella is scrappy, to be sure, but Reyes is freakishly fast and whacked 66 extra-base hits. He is picking up the finer points of the game at a geometric rate, and lopes around the dugout with an addled smile across his face, courtesy of a joy transfusion from an unknown trans-dimensional source. But rest assured, it's one happy fucking dimension.

Eckstein is defensively limited; Reyes' 6-3 double play on Sunday night was a thing of beauty, and he stood in there like a pro to take a couple of tough hits. OK, we're done.

Advantage: Mets

Left field
Chris Duncan (.293/.363/.589) vs. Endy Chavez (.306/.348/.431)

A clear power advantage for the rook, who slowed down toward the end of the year but flashed a fantastic left-handed stroke and raked 22 homers in just over half a season. He completely disappears against lefties, so the Mets have plenty of weapons to use against him in big spots, but he could cause plenty of trouble for Maine and Trashel.

That said, he recalls the scene from Moneyball where Jeremy Giambi is, against most types of common sense, stuck out in left field with no idea what to do. That's Duncan, who butchered two line drives on Saturday, including a memorable scene where he knocked a screamer from Rob Bowen onto his thigh with his glove. Fly balls to tough spots give him fits; he runs around like Reggie White trying to catch a chicken.

Endy, on the other hand, is arguably the smoothest defensive outfielder at the game, and his plus glove in left field will matter against a heavily right-handed lineup. His baserunning is top drawer, and while I'm never going to really trust his bat, he went 3 for 8 against the Dodgers. Losing him as a weapon off the bench hurts.

Advantage: Push

Center field
Jim Edmonds (.257/.350/.471) vs. Carlos “MVP” Beltran (.275/.388/.594)

Post-concussion syndrome is a scary, shitty thing, but you play the hand you're dealt. Right now, Edmonds is trying to bat with the bitch of spades pounding on his frontal cortex and the two of hearts nipping at his heels. He had a nice NLDS, but it ain't the HOF-caliber stuff we're used to seeing from him, and to be honest, it wasn't for most of the year before that.

He's 36, and center fielders start really slowing down at that age. He's the one protecting Pujols, and that's a problem.

Whereas Beltran, assuming he can get back to 100 percent (Upper abdomen? Lower chest? What the hell?), is just a problem for the other team, period. Another guy who tends to look great against righties, if he can hold his own at Shea (where he hits like Rob Deer), we should be all good. Honestly, the injuries have me a little worried.

Advantage: Mets

Right field
Juan Encarnacion (.278/.317/.443) vs. Shawn Green (.257/.325/.442)

Nobody was really that impressed with what Cantor Green did in 113 at-bats with NY, but hey, it was no worse than the slop Encarnacion was putting up. Both are really overpriced, and both are drags on a playoff offense. Green's never really been a big lefty-righty split guy, so that won't help.

Encarnacion is on the books for two more years, whereas Green only has one year to go on his contract. Hooray for small favors.

Advantage: Push

Starting pitching
Jeff Weaver (5-4, 5.18 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) vs. Tom Glavine (15-7, 3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. John Maine (6-5, 3.80 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs. Steve Traschel (15-8, 4.97 ERA, 1.60 WHIP)
Marquis/Reyes vs. Perez/Williams

Game 3 looks like a problem, huh? Otherwise, you give the edge to the Mets in the first two matchups, and who the fuck knows what could happen in the fourth. With El Duque and Pedro unavailable, did you expect the Mets were going to have an edge like this? Me neither.

Weaver is your basic awful pitcher, rescued from the vicissitudes of the AL West by Walt Jocketty to poor effect. Middling control, poor fastball, and his strikeout rate actually went down in the NL, a strange thing. He sucks.

Suppan also can't strike anyone out to save his life; like most of the Cards, he had a solid 2004 NLDS before tanking in the World Series. In his case, that included what Dan Shaughnessy called “a historic baserunning blunder” in Game 3, getting doubled off third base on an RBI groundout situation with the Cards trailing 1-0 and the Sox playing back to concede the run. Ernie Lombardi would have been embarrassed.

Carpenter looks like an asshole, always with a jockish smirk on his face. Good player, though. Marquis is a nice pitcher for a backup second baseman.

Slight advantage: Mets

Relief pitching
Josh Hancock (4.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), Adam Wainwright (3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Braden Looper (3.56 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), Brad Thompson (3.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), Randy Flores (5.62 ERA, 1.70 WHIP), Tyler Johnson (4.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. Aaron Heilman (3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), Darren Oliver (3.44 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), Billy Wagner (2.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), Chad Bradford (2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), Pedro Feliciano (2.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Guillermo Mota (1.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP)

I omitted Roberto Hernandez, who would be the Cardinals' second or third-best reliever. He had his Mets gig stolen by Mota, whose crazy is matched by no man of woman born. Beware.

The Cardinals' numbers bely their play during the season's final two weeks, when they imploded in a fashion not seen since the Kingdome needed to be removed from downtown Seattle. Generation K alum Jason Isringhausen has since departed for the land of the Out for the Season, leaving young Wainwright as the closer. He's their best weapon, and it remains to be seen how LaRussa uses him.

Flores is a strictly mediocre LOOGY, Hancock is halfway decent. A really faceless bunch, truth be told.

The Mets are, as you surely know, sick with it. They won't be able to get through four innings of scoreless work every night for the rest of the playoffs, but with the Cards' middling offense, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Advantage: Mets

Bench
Aaron Miles (.263/.324/.347), Scott Spiezio (.272/.366/.496), That's So Taguchi (.266/.335/.351), Preston Wilson (.243/.300/.486), Gary Bennett (.223/.274/.331), John Rodriguez (301/.374/.432) vs. Chris Woodward (.216/.289/.311), Julio Franco (.273/.330/.370), Ramon Castro (.238/.322/.389), Michael Tucker (.198/.378/.321), Blastings Thrilledge (.241/.310/.380)

This is assuming Floyd is, in fact, done. If not, then young Blastings probably doesn't get added; hell, he may get passed over in favor of Ricky Ledee (who knows his role) in either case. Weird.

The Mets' bench is nice and thin without Endy there, with Franco really disappointing this season and Tucker good for walks but little else. Hernandez won't see any action as long as Woodward is available, which he should be. Not confidence inspiring.

LaRussa, as you'd expect, has more options to fiddle with. Miles is a decent infield part, and Taguchi can still play anywhere in the outfield, even in a down year. I could have sworn Spiezio retired after shitting the bed with Seattle last year, but here he is delivering a big hit in Game 4 of the NLDS.

Preston Wilson? Yawn. But Rodriguez, while not really predictable, had some nice moments this year. A decent collection of players with some decent hedges against Edmonds/Rolen ailments.

Advantage: Cardinals

Overview

Going to Carpenter against the Padres really hurt the Cards' chances here, as a two-start series for the ace changes the whole complexion of the pitching matchups. It could still happen in a 7-game affair, but as long as the Mets are likely to see Weaver twice, the series ain't going no 7 games.

St. Louis could stay involved if Eckstein and Duncan get hot. A couple of three-run Pujols shots aren't exactly out of the question, and the Cardinals' pitching has the potential to be better than it has been at times. A Game 4 start from Anthony Reyes has a lot of potential, and a Perez/Williams disaster might be a nice counterpart.

I just don't see it happening. The Mets are better at every facet of the game, and have home field. The Padres went 2 for 36 with RISP, and that's not happening again. Sorry.

Prediction
Mets in five