La Russa's 'Gamble' Is the Mets' Big Chance
As Wednesday progressed and grey skies turned from simply ominous to actually disruptive, I immediately began to think about two things.
One, how would this effect the Mets' bullpen? No day off between games 2 and 3 could lead to a lot of tired arms come Game 4, which, oh by the way, is scheduled to be started by All-or-Nothing Ollie.
And two, what would this mean for the Cardinals vis-a-vis Chris Carpenter? The reigning Cy Young award winner in the National League (and serious contender for the award once again) loomed as one of the significant advantages St. Louis would have in the NLCS.
Now the answer to question one is still very much in the air, although our bullpen's cause benefited mightily from Tommy Ballgame's excellent outing last night. Seven innings and 89 pitches from your Glavine meant only two relievers were needed. I'm buying.
(Incidentally, I have no idea why Guillermo Mota pitched the eighth instead of Aaron Heilman. Perhaps Willie has more confidence in Heilman over two innings than Mota, which makes enough sense. Anybody have different theories?)
But no matter what happened last night, the amount of innings thrown by our bullpen will be a lingering concern over the next three days, so the bullpen issue is open. Carpenter is a different story.
In an anticipated move, Tony La Russa announced yesterday that Carpenter would start Game 2 at Shea instead of his previously announced Game 3 start in St. Louis. Starting Game 2 would allow Carpenter to start a potential Game 6 in New York, rather than the potential Game 7 he was originally in line to start.
But will the series get that far? The result tonight will go a long way towards determining that, not only because a Mets win would give them an auspicious 2-0 advantage, but also because one of the Cardinals' biggest assets would be unavailable until the series returned to New York.
It may seem strange on some level to question La Russa's decision to start Carpenter tonight. After all, he will be pitching on his standard days' rest, he is, again, the reigning Cy Young award winner in the National League, and it frees him up, again, to start a potential Game 6, which is always more likely than a Game 7.
But if I'm a Cardinals fan, I'm not sure I love the move, and as a Mets fan, it's got me pretty excited.
Tonight is a big opportunity for the Mets. The series won't be over if we win tonight, but if we take a 2-0 lead into St. Louis against the pitchers they'll have to throw at us, Game 2 could prove decisive.
To that end, the good news is that Carpenter is a decidedly better pitcher at home than on the road. Check out his home/road splits.
ERA: 1.81 (Home)/4.70 (Road)
Batting Average Against: .214/.260
OPS Against: .552/.754
And let's not forget his splits against right-handed batters vs. left-handed batters.
Batting Average Against: .210 (right-handed batters)/.266 (left-handed batters)
OPS Against: .575/.730
The point is that Carpenter is clearly more vulnerable to lefthanded hitters than righties, which favors the left-heavy lineup Willie will run out there tonight. And not only that, but Carpenter will have to overcome a season's worth of mediocrity on the road.
Does any of that make it the wrong move by La Russa to start Carpenter in Game 2? Not necessarily.
But for the Cards to win this series they're going to need to win the games Carpenter starts, and the fact is that he's far less of a sure thing when he starts on the road. If this series plays out the way La Russa has it scripted, Carpenter will be starting two games at Shea.
What's more, should St. Louis lose tonight, La Russa will be forced to turn to Jeff Suppan in a must-win situation for Game 3. In case you haven't been paying attention, Suppan doesn't exactly match up well against the Mets.
Suppan's numbers should give heart: .302 batting average against (or two points better than Jose Reyes on the season); .369 OBP against (or 15 points higher than Reyes); .464 Slugging against (.023 less than Reyes); .834 OPS against (or .007 less than Reyes). The point is that lefties basically had the same kind of season against Suppan that Reyes did in 2006 (discounting stolen bases).
You take that every time with the kind of lineup we've got, and the kind of season Reyes had.
What it all means is that Game 2 has become an absolute must-win for the Cardinals, and in some respects, the stakes for the Mets tonight are simultaneously lower and higher, if that makes any sense.
On the one hand, a win tonight would be a devastating blow for the Cardinals. They'd be in a 2-0 deficit with two decidedly uninspiring pitchers going in Games 3 and 4.
On the other hand, losing tonight against Carpenter won't be nearly as devastating for the Mets as it would have been to lose against Suppan in Game 2 with Carpenter following in Game 3.
Moving Carpenter to start Game 2 is still probably the right move on paper, but the result is that tonight is basically a must-win game for the Cardinals, and the fact is that their ace isn't nearly the pitcher on the road that he is at home.
None of it means we won't have our work cut out for us though. Our bats will need to wake up a bit in order for us to triumph over Carpenter, particularly with John Maine starting rather than Tom Glavine. Not trying to say I don't have a lot of confidence in Maine, but let's face it, you feel differently going into a game started by Maine than you do a game started by Glavine.
And none of it means the Mets should approach this game with any lack of intensity, or think of it as anything but a must-win game.
There's no room for complacency. Win tonight and the series isn't over, but the Cards are on the ropes. Not out, but definitely, definitely down.
Shea should be rocking once again. The place went nuts last night when Beltran hit that home run, and the players feed off of that intensity.
Y2K will most definitely be in the building.
Let's GO!!!
- A.F.O.M.G.
One, how would this effect the Mets' bullpen? No day off between games 2 and 3 could lead to a lot of tired arms come Game 4, which, oh by the way, is scheduled to be started by All-or-Nothing Ollie.
And two, what would this mean for the Cardinals vis-a-vis Chris Carpenter? The reigning Cy Young award winner in the National League (and serious contender for the award once again) loomed as one of the significant advantages St. Louis would have in the NLCS.Now the answer to question one is still very much in the air, although our bullpen's cause benefited mightily from Tommy Ballgame's excellent outing last night. Seven innings and 89 pitches from your Glavine meant only two relievers were needed. I'm buying.
(Incidentally, I have no idea why Guillermo Mota pitched the eighth instead of Aaron Heilman. Perhaps Willie has more confidence in Heilman over two innings than Mota, which makes enough sense. Anybody have different theories?)
But no matter what happened last night, the amount of innings thrown by our bullpen will be a lingering concern over the next three days, so the bullpen issue is open. Carpenter is a different story.
In an anticipated move, Tony La Russa announced yesterday that Carpenter would start Game 2 at Shea instead of his previously announced Game 3 start in St. Louis. Starting Game 2 would allow Carpenter to start a potential Game 6 in New York, rather than the potential Game 7 he was originally in line to start.
But will the series get that far? The result tonight will go a long way towards determining that, not only because a Mets win would give them an auspicious 2-0 advantage, but also because one of the Cardinals' biggest assets would be unavailable until the series returned to New York.
It may seem strange on some level to question La Russa's decision to start Carpenter tonight. After all, he will be pitching on his standard days' rest, he is, again, the reigning Cy Young award winner in the National League, and it frees him up, again, to start a potential Game 6, which is always more likely than a Game 7.But if I'm a Cardinals fan, I'm not sure I love the move, and as a Mets fan, it's got me pretty excited.
Tonight is a big opportunity for the Mets. The series won't be over if we win tonight, but if we take a 2-0 lead into St. Louis against the pitchers they'll have to throw at us, Game 2 could prove decisive.
To that end, the good news is that Carpenter is a decidedly better pitcher at home than on the road. Check out his home/road splits.
ERA: 1.81 (Home)/4.70 (Road)
Batting Average Against: .214/.260
OPS Against: .552/.754
And let's not forget his splits against right-handed batters vs. left-handed batters.
Batting Average Against: .210 (right-handed batters)/.266 (left-handed batters)
OPS Against: .575/.730
The point is that Carpenter is clearly more vulnerable to lefthanded hitters than righties, which favors the left-heavy lineup Willie will run out there tonight. And not only that, but Carpenter will have to overcome a season's worth of mediocrity on the road.
Does any of that make it the wrong move by La Russa to start Carpenter in Game 2? Not necessarily.
But for the Cards to win this series they're going to need to win the games Carpenter starts, and the fact is that he's far less of a sure thing when he starts on the road. If this series plays out the way La Russa has it scripted, Carpenter will be starting two games at Shea.
What's more, should St. Louis lose tonight, La Russa will be forced to turn to Jeff Suppan in a must-win situation for Game 3. In case you haven't been paying attention, Suppan doesn't exactly match up well against the Mets.
Suppan's numbers should give heart: .302 batting average against (or two points better than Jose Reyes on the season); .369 OBP against (or 15 points higher than Reyes); .464 Slugging against (.023 less than Reyes); .834 OPS against (or .007 less than Reyes). The point is that lefties basically had the same kind of season against Suppan that Reyes did in 2006 (discounting stolen bases).You take that every time with the kind of lineup we've got, and the kind of season Reyes had.
What it all means is that Game 2 has become an absolute must-win for the Cardinals, and in some respects, the stakes for the Mets tonight are simultaneously lower and higher, if that makes any sense.
On the one hand, a win tonight would be a devastating blow for the Cardinals. They'd be in a 2-0 deficit with two decidedly uninspiring pitchers going in Games 3 and 4.
On the other hand, losing tonight against Carpenter won't be nearly as devastating for the Mets as it would have been to lose against Suppan in Game 2 with Carpenter following in Game 3.
Moving Carpenter to start Game 2 is still probably the right move on paper, but the result is that tonight is basically a must-win game for the Cardinals, and the fact is that their ace isn't nearly the pitcher on the road that he is at home.
None of it means we won't have our work cut out for us though. Our bats will need to wake up a bit in order for us to triumph over Carpenter, particularly with John Maine starting rather than Tom Glavine. Not trying to say I don't have a lot of confidence in Maine, but let's face it, you feel differently going into a game started by Maine than you do a game started by Glavine.And none of it means the Mets should approach this game with any lack of intensity, or think of it as anything but a must-win game.
There's no room for complacency. Win tonight and the series isn't over, but the Cards are on the ropes. Not out, but definitely, definitely down.
Shea should be rocking once again. The place went nuts last night when Beltran hit that home run, and the players feed off of that intensity.
Y2K will most definitely be in the building.
Let's GO!!!
- A.F.O.M.G.
posted by A Friend of Mr. Glass' at 1:32 PM
5 Comments:
Here's my theory on Mota:
Heilman is being saved for a game 4 spot start instead of perez, or to be ready to come in long relief of him if he gets in trouble early. remember Heilman was arguing to be in the rotation all year and last year thru a couple of 1-hit shutouts.
Wally Backman 86 --
This theory's been bouncing around a bit lately, but I just can't see it happening. A few reasons why:
1. Arm strength.
This is the big one. The guy's been throwing 1-to-2 innings all season long. It doesn't mean he couldn't push it and go farther, but you really have to wonder whether he could go more than 5 innings; frankly, 4 seems like the ceiling.
2. Effect on bullpen.
The bullpen is the team's greatest asset when it comes to pitching, and Heilman's a big part of that. Heilman could conceivably pitch in each of the next three games for the Mets, and given that our starters are Maine, Trachsel and (in theory) Perez, we may well need multiple innings out of each arm in our bullpen. Subtracting Heilman from the mix doesn't make sense, particularly given the quick hook Willie displayed in the NLDS.
3. They chose Perez for a reason.
They might have carried Dave Williams instead of Perez, but they decided not to. They have faith in Perez. Maybe it's because he's proven he can be down right nasty when everything's clicking. Maybe it's because they think the stakes of a Game 4 are lower, a loss less devastating. Who knows? Whatever it is, they carried Perez for a reason, and as far as I can tell the reason is to start Game 4.
* * * * *
I'm not saying Heilman starting can't happen, I just really doubt it will. It sure would be interesting if it did though, wouldn't it?
Hey Sip, I'm sure your mind is elsewhere right now (as a Twins fan I've got a little more time on my hands), but I was wondering if you've been keeping up on this season of Laguna. Although its a little different than previous seasons, I'm finding it to be fantastic. Cameron's R-tard game and Tyler being the world's biggest loser/d-bag and Cameron's love guru Nick (also a winner) have been highlights. I'm also constantly trying to figure out if Tessa is hot, and how many gang-bangs Cami has been involved with. All the date scenes have been fantastically ackward and the use of 'gnarly' has been spectacular...Just wondering what your take has been?
AFOMG--
I disagree. I'll knock on all the wood I can find should it happen, but if the Mets beat Carpenter tonight, I think St. Louis is D-U-N done.
The Heilman conspiracy theory is so illogical that it can only be taken as wishful and misguided thinking generated by people, like me, who wanted Heilman to start earlier in the year. I see two questions at work here:
1) why did Mota get the 8th last night inning instead of Heilman?
2) why does anyone, let alone so many people, care?
Look, Mota and Heilman have both been absolutely fantastic. I am all for giving Heilman the nominally more prestigious 8th because his Met-service time is longer, and he has sucked it up and adjusted to the personal disappointment of being a reliever. Fine. But Mota has been just as good, if not better than Heilman (I would contend better, especially if you're looking for strikeouts) since coming to Flushing, and he got the job done last night. So what's the big deal? Heilman will undoubtedly get his innings in over the next week, and they will be important ones. It's all good...
PS. The most interesting theory I've heard is that Heilman is being saved for a 9th inning situation to give Wagner a night off (since Billy has thrown in every game so far). Interesting, but not realistic either in my opinion.
Mets in 4.
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