About Those Preseason Predictions, Right...

Hey everyone, A Friend of Mr. Glass' here. By now you've probably heard that in the wee hours of last night, the Mets finally realized a dream 15 years in the making.

With a late-inning rally against the Florida Marlins, the Mets assured that the Braves would not win a division title for the first time since 1991.

There's really not much more to say about it than that. The Mets are simply playing out the regular season right now. Over the next 18 games, excitement will come when any of the following happen:

1. The Mets clinch the division (looking like Friday).
2. Pedro Martinez pitches.
3. Carlos Beltran breaks the franchise record for home runs in a season.
4. The Mets close in on 100 wins.
5. Cowbell Man wanders over to your section of the bleachers.

All of which is to say, whatever the Mets accomplish in the next couple of weeks is just a formality, knocking off the Braves included.

Nonetheless, I was somewhat amused by Mark Bradley's dirge for the Braves' streak of division titles. The column is a list of signs that this wasn't the Braves' year, for example:

• The franchise linchpin’s dependable backup [Wilson Betemit] reports to his new team and helps it win 15 of its next 16 games.

• The Florida Marlins, with a team payroll roughly equal to what Mike Hampton is earning for not pitching, are ahead of you in the standings.

• You’re swept in a September doubleheader by two Mets’ starting pitchers who were in Class AAA in August.

That all said, the fact of the Braves' elimination isn't news, no matter how long we've waited for it.

What is news is that the Mets are closing in on 90 wins for the first time since the 2000 season, and the fact that the Mets could well clinch the division tonight is pretty high up there on the big news-o-meter, but that's the subject for another post.

Just before Opening Day, Sip and I made some predictions about how the Mets would fare in 2006. Sip predicted the Mets would win 87 games, I said the Mets would win 91 plus or minus 2 (meaning at the most 93, at the least 89).

Why were we so off? In Sip's case, I'm pretty sure a lot of it had to do with general pessimism.

In my case, I think primarily I expected more out of the rest of the division. I remember thinking the Braves and Phillies would be slightly worse than they'd been in 2005, while I thought the Marlins and Nationals would fall off a cliff.

Of those predictions only one has come true: the Nationals have been every bit as bad as I expected. For their part, the Phillies are worse than I thought they'd be (I had them pegged as an 87-win team), the Braves are a lot worse (I figured them for 89-90 wins) and the Marlins are a shitload better (I was thinking 55-60 wins).

So that's part of the explanation. I also expected a little less out of certain players on the Mets. I expected progress out of Jose Reyes; I didn't expect him to vault into Willie McGee/Honus Wagner territory. I expected progress out of Carlos Beltran; I didn't expect a run at all our single-season franchise records.

When I consider the strides made by these two players in particular, I am contented by the thought that while, yes, their improvement has been dramatic, neither was completely out of left field.

We all expected Reyes to get better, we just thought it would be more incremental. We all expected Beltran to improve on his 2005, we just didn't think he would be the franchise player we had asked him to be.

It all bodes very well for the New Guys come playoff time. I know we're all Mets fans and that we're privately panicking that the Mets will be eliminated in the first round. Not me.

If I looked at the players on this team and said to myself, "hey, this is a group that's really overachieved this year," I'd be more concerned, but I can't say that.

Of the guys in the starting lineup, only Jose Valentin has really overacheived. Paulie Thumbs maybe a little bit, but certainly only as far as his average goes.

None of the numbers being put up by our biggest contributers are the kind that make you say "where did that come from?" You didn't expect them necessarily, but you're not surprised by them either.

And as I look back and repent on my Opening Day prediction of 91 wins plus/minus 2, I think that's what I've got to hang my hat on. I thought this team would be good, I just didn't think it would be this good.

But you know what? As I look back on it, I think I should have.

Can't say that about the Tigers.

- A.F.O.M.G.