(The Ex-) Cardinal Rule

Hey everyone. As far as we know, Tom Glavine didn't suffer a second non-life-threatening blood clot yesterday, so that's something. Otherwise, not much news on that front.

Baseball Prospectus' injury guru Will Carroll didn't have much to add Monday, while the papers basically carried the emotional reax, as they had to. This isn't the best situation for them, as they await an uncertain diagnosis with few attractive ways of getting at the story or distinguishing their coverage.

And, for a variety of reasons, today might not be the best day for the Yankee mocking. Yup. We'll see if Sip has anything to say about it, but for my money re-enacting the Boston Massacre buys you at least one day of reprieve here at Y2K. I'm magnanimous like that.

So, let us now turn our attention to the Amazins' upcoming series against the St. Louis Cardinals, holders of a 2 1/2-game lead in the National League Central, aka The Sinkhole.

(Ozzie Guillen on the Cards' digs -- "I don't know about the other [National League] divisions, but the Central? Oh, please ... We might win 150 games in that league." Dang, cuz!)

But even considering its current advantage in the standings, this just isn't the same St. Louis club most of us remember from years past. No, sir.

In 1999, Nelly's favorite team managed to turn 65 steroid-aided Mark McGwire home runs and a massively fluky season from Fernando Tatis into a mere 75 wins. From the 'Lou, but not proud, one might say if one were an idiot.

The very next year, fueled by the arrivals of Jim Edmonds, the late Darryl Kile and a 20-year-old future head case named Rick Ankiel (11-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 194 strikeouts, lest ye forget), St. Louis improved by 20 games in the standings and romped to a division title. The subsequent stomping at the hands of the Mets in the NLCS aside, it was a sign of the good things to come for the Busch faithful.

The Cards went on to win 90 games in four of the next five seasons, including back-to-back 100-win showings in '04 and '05. Scott Rolen came over in 2002, one year after a freakish and somewhat boring slugger named Jose Alberto Pujols showed up in the dropslot. Both contributed to a balanced approach featuring a dangerous lineup and a deep rotation.

They were the class of the National League. No more.

First of all, they were due a bad karma bashing of biblical proportions for firing the scout who brought them Pujols, wrapped only in swadling clothes and Big League Chew. Good lord, what a bad idea. Cue Denholm Elliot, and a hastily murmured "You're meddling with powers you can't possibly comprehend."

Those who ask "why" ought to continue here: thus far in 2006, half-pint-sized shortstop David Eckstein leads St. Louis in at-bats (477, good for 9th in the league). He's "slugging" .329.

No. 2 on the playing time list? Free agent mistake Juan Encarnacion, a corner outfielder with a disgustingly bad .312 on-base percentage. Add in a down year for Edmonds, and even a bounceback year from Rolen and some recent heroics from rookie Chris Duncan haven't been enough to make up the slack.

The real implosion, though, has come in the rotation, where only Cy Young hurler Chris Carpenter has maintained his previous form. Baseball Prospectus has a measure called SNLVAR that measures adjusted value above replacement level pitching talent. In 2005, the Cards tied with Anaheim for third, behind only the staffs (staves?) of Houston and Hotlanta.

They're down to 12th this year, saved only by Adam Wainwright and a decent bullpen. Jason Marquis can't strike anyone out and has a 5.70 ERA in 27 starts, while Sidney Ponson's 5.23 ERA in 13 starts was enough to earn him a pink slip. Jeff Suppan is sitting above 5.00 as well, while midseason cry for help Jeff Weaver (the bad one) has been predictably subpar.

And if that wasn't bad enough, here's Mark Mulder making guys like Brandon Claussen and John Thomsen look good by comparison. Once a member of Oakland's big three, Mulder started the year decently but has since fallen off the mesa entirely. Through 88.2 brutal innings, the man who led the AL in wins in 2001 has a 6.09 ERA, and is currently fouling up his rehab starts.

Basically, this could be brutal. The Mets drew an opposing lineup of Weaver, Mulder and Marquis that wouldn't flatter the Royals. They should brutalize all three.

It's almost a shame, really, that a series representing something of a torch passing in the National League is shaping up as an uglyfest. At full speed, the 2006 Mets are a fun-loving force to be reckoned with. In a more perfect world, this would have been a coming-out party, a stage on which to assert their dominance in the new NL.

Now? For one, they're not at full speed (say hello to projected Thursday starter Dave Williams). For another, looming injury concerns are pecking away at the Mets' mojo, and are dragging down the good times to some extent.

Not an overwhelming amount. Even with Pedro, Tommy, Spliff et al on the shelf, the team has the ability to make a statement, and can be considered likely to do so.

That will have to suffice for now. A good showing would go a long way toward making the gang forget about blood clots for a while, and reinforce just how they assembled their massive bankroll of a lead. It's with that in mind that A.F.O.M.G. has called this "the last interesting series of the year."

If everything goes well, he'll be right.

- Cheddar