Everything's Not Lost

(Note: Double the obligatory Tom Glavine response pieces today, the first by Sippy Momo and the second by A.F.O.M.G. Step back from the ledge and enjoy.)

As we await the test results from Tom Glavine’s angiogram on his left shoulder, Young Sip sits on the Caltrain to work, nervous yet optimistic.

A lot has changed over the last year. The Mets got good, I started wearing pants that fit and all of a sudden I am somewhat optimistic.

Maybe its those chats with Happy Will or the fact that Carlos Beltran, who once looked like 7 years of Bobby Bonilla, is now a star.

Whatever it is, I am seeing positive for the first time, especially when it comes to the Mets.

This is why the potential loss of Tom Glavine for the season does not kill me.

Of course it hurts. Glavine signed with the Mets both for financial and team-related reasons. He wanted a 4th year and a shot at 300 wins, but he also wanted to rebuild the Mets. For 2.5 years, Glavine struggled. The Mets were as bad as the ace they swiped from the Braves.

Then a funny thing happened in the second half of 2005. Tom Glavine started pitching like the Glavine of old and all of a sudden he looked great again.

As Glavine went, so did the Mets. Glavine’s red hot start in 2006 was one of the major reasons for the Mets' dominance of the National League in 2006.

For most of the first half of the season, Glavine was practically unhittable. He was an early candidate for Cy Young, an amazing feat for a man in his 40’s who had to change his pitching style after nearly decades with one approach.

Over the last couple of months, though, Glavine has cooled down. He saw his ERA rise from the mid 2’s to the high 3’s. He’s won just 1 game since June 23rd and for the most part has been rather inconsistent.

As we get ready for LAG (Life After Glavine) we must answer what Glavine’s loss means to this team. Glavine was clearly our #2. We knew he would pitch in October, he was essentially our one sure thing along with Pedro.

Somewhere between an all-you-can-eat sushi dinner and a long trip to the bathroom that followed shortly thereafter, I realized that losing Glavine is not all that bad.

If you take a look at the 2006 Mets, there are two reasons what we have had the success that we have had: the offense and the bullpen.

1-9 the Mets lineup has dominated. With Jose Reyes serving as the catalyst at the top and a murderer’s row of Beltran, Delgado and Wright in the middle, the Mets have destroyed opposing pitchers.

We have also received significant roles from Paul Lo Duca, who leads the team in hitting, Jose Valentin, the pleasant surprise over at 2b, and Endy Chavez, who has spelled our often injured outfield.

Then, we have the bullpen. Chad Bradford, Duaner Sanchez (RIP) and Aaron Heilman have been for the most part spectacular in getting the ball to Billy Wagner. While Wagner has slipped a handful of times, each one more magnified than the last, he has been pretty much lights out for the last month and is hopefully getting into the groove that we need him to get to.

But the rotation hasn’t really been there. The numbers can back this up. Pedro has 9 wins, Glavine has a 3.92 ERA and then what? We have gotten 6 solid weeks of John Maine, inconsistency out of El Duque and Trash and some very ordinary appearances from our fill-in guys like Mike Pelfrey.

If you were to tell me in April that this would be our rotation and this is how it would be performing, I would have told you that this is a 2nd place team.

The fact is, the Mets were never going to out-pitch anyone. At least not from innings 1-6. But in the National League, what is fortunate, is that no one will out-pitch us.

Save the Astros, who no one wants to see in October, the Mets are currently looking at the Cardinals, Red and Padres in October.

From that group there are the struggling Jake Peavy and Chris Carpenter, the guitar strumming/second-half-fading Bronson Arroyo and a whole bunch of Steve Trachsel’s. The Mets are not the exception, starting pitching in the NL is thin.

Losing Glavine will not change that.

Sure it hurts. And yes, it would be sad if his career ended this way. But in all honesty how much confidence do we all really have in Glavine, especially in October?

While he broke me and my buddy Nails' respective hearts in Game 3 of the 1999 NLCS, a lot has changed for the Tommy the Spy. At this point, he is a better option than El Duque, but really, by how much? For the last two months, we never knew what we would get out of Glavine. He wasn’t the Tom Glavine of April and May but instead, the Tom Glavine of second-half 2004.

I apologize if I sound callous, in the wake of the biggest doctor’s appointment of Tom Glavine’s life, both personally and professionally, but I am trying to be honest as a fan as well as optimistic.

The Mets win games with their bats. They win games at the end of the games. Losing Duaner Sanchez, in my opinion was a far bigger loss than losing Glavine would be.

Do I hope that he is healthy, that the results come up negative? Absolutely.

But do I think we still have a shot without Tommy G? I still really do.

After all, we have David Wright and Jose Reyes, and with these two we have the two biggest pleasures in the game on our side every single night.

To Tommy, we here at Y2K wish you the best.

VCD,

SM