State of the Season Part III: The Season Still to Come

Hey everyone, A Friend of Mr. Glass' here with the final installment in our State of the Season series.

The second half of the season kicked off yesterday, but for Mets fans like you and me, the second half really begins in earnest this afternoon as the Mets take to the field behind the trusty right arm of Steve Trachsel.

On Tuesday we looked back at 5 things that went right and 5 things that went wrong in the first half of the season. Today we'll take a look forward at 5 issues that figure to loom large in the latter half.

1. Who wins the National League wild card?

By posing this question I am expressing two beliefs. One, the Mets will win the National League East. This I pretty much take to be a given.

Does me saying that make some of you cringe out there? I'm sure there are some of you. Let me again remind you all of my favorite stat. If the Mets play .500 ball the rest of the way (for the sake of argument we'll say they go 36-37, slightly worse than .500 ball), they end up with 89 wins.

For the Phillies to win 89 games, they would need to go 49-26, 23 games over .500. Neither the Phillies playing that well nor the Mets playing that badly is impossible, but neither is likely. This Mets team is too good for that to happen, I'm sure of that.

My second assumption is that the Mets will finish with the best record in the National League. This is less of a gimme. The Mets currently own a 3.5 game lead over St. Louis for the best record in the NL, but the Cardinals could come on strong in the second half.

That said, I still think the Mets will finish with the best record. I think we're better than the Cardinals for one thing, but on top of that, our schedule is about as fortuitous as you could hope.

To wit, our final 20 games are against teams that currently have sub-.500 records. In the entire second half of the season, we play 6 series against teams with records that are currently .500 or better. Four of those 6 are at home. Two of those 6 are against the Rockies, who currently are exactly .500.

All of which is to say, if we don't finish with the best record in the National League, it won't be because our schedule was littered with fierce competition. And it's also to say that we've got a pretty good chance of ending up with the best record in the NL.

What that means for us come playoff time is that we'll be playing the NL wild card.

In my estimation, there are currently 6 teams with a realistic hope at winning the wild card: Los Angeles (46-43, 0 GB), Cincinnati (46-44, .5 GB), San Francisco (45-44, 1 GB), Colorado (44-44, 1.5 GB), Houston (44-46, 2.5 GB) and Milwaukee (44-46, 2.5 GB).

Of those teams, the one that scares me the most (particularly in a short series) is Houston. Their 1-2 punch of Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt (perhaps it should be the other way around) is as good as any in baseball.

They've got third starter issues of their own with Andy Pettitte having a disappointing year, but if they could run Clemens and Oswalt out for four out of five games, they could well run the Mets (or any team for that matter) out of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, I have to imagine they're the most likely contender for the NL wild card. The Dodgers will be in it, the Brewers could be a factor, but I expect the Astros to come on strong in the second half and wrap up their second straight wild card berth.

Scary as that might be, with all the 1986 nostalgia on at Shea, I suppose a Mets-Astros playoff series would be rather fitting.

2. What happens to the Mets' rotation?

I won't dwell much on Pedro Martinez's status. Our postseason hopes hinge on his health. Beyond suggesting we rest him as much as possible, I can't really offer anything more regarding the front of our rotation.

As for the back of the rotation, the rumor mill is alive and kicking today as the Daily News heralded word that the Mets have expressed interest in Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia of the Chicago White Sox.

The truth is neither is having a particularly good season, no matter how flashy their names are. Both have ERAs right around 5.00. Garcia's peripherals are worse (he's averaging a paltry 5.23 K/9), and from the looks of it he's been hurt by the long ball, allowing 20 dongs in 18 starts.

As for Vazquez, there are all the New York pressure issues with him, but he's put up slightly better numbers so far this season.

Of course, either would be an upgrade over Jose Lima. But the question here is how much the Mets are willing to give up.

The Mets should think of it this way: another arm is not needed in order to make the playoffs. That being said, how much talent are we willing to surrender in order to have a third starter in hopefully three but as few as one playoff series'?

For my money, Lastings Milledge shouldn't enter the discussion, and after that, I'm not sure who we really have to give. Anderson Hernandez? I just don't think that's enough to get it done. There's more depth in our system than I'm letting on there, but I don't know who we're going to give from our system in order to make a deal work.

At that point you start thinking about Major Leaguers. It'll be interesting to see whether the club dangles Cliff Floyd. Cliffy's been coming on a bit the past couple weeks, and from everything I've read, the White Sox could use a lefthanded bat.

I'm not ready to deal Floyd. I don't think Milledge is where we need him to be for a playoff run (and yes, I'm anticipating Nails' obligatory "Milledge sucks" comment any minute now). He made too many rookie mistakes in his brief time with the Mets, and I wouldn't feel comfortable with him out there in a playoff series.

As for the pitching, the truth is I'm kind of OK with handing El Duque the ball in a playoff series. He's had some great outings for us and he's always been a big-game pitcher. If he's our third starter in a playoff series, I wouldn't be devastated.

If Barry Zito or Dontelle Willis are available, I wouldn't be devastated if we parted with Milledge (I might have reservations with Zito, Willis is a no-brainer). If it's anyone else though, I think the Mets should keep their situation in perspective. Is Livan Hernandez such an upgrade over Steve Trachsel or El Duque? I'm not sure. He'd make sailing to October smoother, sure, but after that, what's the return on our investment?

Maybe I'm just a too-often-burned Mets fan when it comes to deadline deals, but the Mets should tread carefully here. Let's see what Pelfrey can do. We've always got Brian Bannister in our back pocket (the New York Times this morning says he could be back in two-three weeks), and even if he wasn't dominant in his 5 starts, he looked credible.

As much as starting pitching has been a weakness this year, with a 12-game lead and all our in-division foes as horrible as they are, I feel like we should be dealing from strength. We don't need to panic, we need to act prudently. Here's hoping we do.

3. Is our bullpen ready for October?

Our greatest strength at the beginning of the season, the bullpen has been a bit of a question mark the past month or so. This is primarily due to Aaron Heilman, who suffered through about as ugly a June as you could possibly have.

For his part, Duaner Sanchez has been good on the whole, but he wasn't as automatic in June as he had been earlier in the year.

The struggles out of our two primary relievers have allowed other bullpen components, Chad Bradford and Pedro Feliciano most notably, to establish more defined roles. Bradford is summoned to bail out pitchers who have allowed men on base, Feliciano is the de facto lefty specialist.

As for the man at the back, Billy Wagner, he's been a bit less consistent than we'd all like, but he's our closer, like it or not.

So where does it all leave us? Well, the closer's spot is clearly defined and Sanchez is our 8th inning arm, but the rest of the setup corps could see some tinkering.

I think it's probably fair to say that there's some level of organizational distrust of Aaron Heilman, but I don't think they'll deal him in light of how highly they valued him last offseason. Rather, I expect the Mets to try and find some competition for Heilman in the 7th inning, perhaps even going so far as to pluck last year's old reliable, Roberto Hernandez, away from Pittsburgh.

Would the Mets part with a prospect to acquire a proven 7th inning arm? I don't know.

Should they? If you say no, you're basically hoping that Heilman rounds into form. I don't think it's smart baseball to do anything based on a hoped-for best outcome. What if he doesn't get it together?

The bullpen, which some consider a minor aspect of running a team, is held in pretty high esteem here at Y2K, especially come playoff time. I'd like to see the Mets pick up an arm at the deadline, hopefully at the expense of somebody none of us really care about (Victor Diaz, anyone?).

4. Jose Valentin: Love him or leave him?

Second base has been a question mark pretty much all season. It started with an ineffective (though slick fielding) Anderson Hernandez out of spring training. It segued into an ineffective (though surprisingly well fielding) Kaz Matsui. And it seems to have been resolved by Jose Valentin.

Yes, the man who was so bad that certain Mets fans created parody websites devoted to chronicling how awful he was has turned into our starting second baseman, and a not half-bad one at that.

The question though is whether the team is prepared to head off into October with Valentin manning second. I don't know what the organizational thinking is on this one, but it's pretty clear that Mark Grudzielanek, a natural second baseman, will be available. Ditto Adam Kennedy.

What's the price tag? I don't know. Are the Mets buyers in this area? I think it's possible, but there are more pressing needs. Their priority will remain acquiring pitching help, but if the right option is dangled, the Mets could bite.

Remember, Valentin is not a natural second baseman, and his defense, while passable, won't turn any heads.

If Minaya can't make a deal for a pitcher, will he feel pressured to acquire a second baseman just to have done something? He didn't succomb to that pressure last year, but this season is different. The Mets are playoff-bound: can Jose Valentin be trusted as our second baseman all season or are we living on borrowed time?

Valentin's done well for us this year, but if you told me we were living on borrowed time, I'd believe it.

5. When will we wrap up the division?

The sooner the better. No two players on our team figure to be as important as Tom Glavine, 40 years young, and Pedro, he of the bum hip/toe/etc., come October. The sooner we can get the NL East wrapped up, the sooner we can start pampering them in advance of the playoffs.

The same goes for the rest of the bullpen and our regulars as well. Willie Randolph has been criticized for overtaxing Heilman, Sanchez, and Wagner, giving them too many innings too soon in the season. A restful September should help ease the burden on any dead arm effects that could creep in.

As for the starters, I'd like to get a lot of rest for Paul Lo Duca, a notorious second half slumper. The earlier we win the division, the earlier we can start giving him regular days off to rest him up for the playoffs.

Beyond resting guys for stamina purposes, everybody sustains little nicks and bruises over the course of the season. Sipping champagne is nice, but we've got more riding on the division title than that -- let's get there sooner rather than later so we can start getting ready for October.

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And that about does it folks. The second half begins about 30 minutes from now. It's been fun so far but the heavy lifting remains to be done. Let's have at it.

- A.F.O.M.G.