Problem Solved?

Not quite.

You know what I’m talking about, of course. That gaping hole in the back of our rotation? The leak that sprung in late April? The one we tried to fill with distinguished names like Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez?

I’ll grant that Mike Pelfrey has looked a hell of a lot better, through two starts at least, than Lima or Gonzalez ever did.

And I’ll also grant that Pelfrey impressed at times last night. To read the box score this morning is to be impressed by the grand slam by Carlos Beltran, and indeed, that was the turning point of the game.

It was not the defining moment, however. That came in the bottom of the fifth inning, when Pelfrey erased a 3-1 hole against Adam Dunn to strike out one of the biggest threats in the Cincinnati lineup.

So what's it mean for the Mets? What have we got here?

In the run-up to last night’s game, there was a lot of talk about how the Mets were hoping to find a pitcher who would give their rotation a different look, not just in the remaining 2 months of the regular season, but in October as well. That is, a guy who isn’t a finesse pitcher (like Glavine, Trachsel, et al). A guy who can overpower you with good old No. 1.

As Pelfrey took his high 90s cheese to the mound last night, the question was whether he would show team brass that he was prepared to be that guy.

To my mind, the results we’ve seen from Pelfrey suggest we’ve got a guy who can hold down the back of the rotation, not a guy who should be starting Game 3 of a playoff series. (Note: Just so we're clear, I mean that strictly in the context of 2006.)

The bottom line in both of Pelfrey's starts have looked good enough, but both times out the bottom line has been somewhat deceiving.

There were many, many hard hit balls against Pelfrey last night, particularly in the early going. In fact, it is doubtful whether Pelfrey would have ever escaped unscathed through the first 5 innings had the defense behind him not turned double plays on two of the hardest hit balls of the season.

On top of that, Pelfrey once again struggled with his control. What bothered me more than anything with Pelfrey last night was that there appeared to be at-bats where he lost focus. He would walk a guy on 4 straight pitches or maybe 5, and just generally not appear to be on top of his game at random moments.

The feeling was a bit like watching Billy Wagner this season, where one pitch the guy’s throwing 98 and the next he’s throwing 92. It’s impossible to diagnose the source of the problem, but you know it when you see it, and it’s frustrating because you feel like it shouldn’t be an issue. But it is.

That all said, I’ve been very encouraged by what we’ve seen out of Pelfrey in the grand scheme of things. There’s no question that he made progress in this start compared with his last. He kept his pitch count lower, he had better command of his soft stuff and breaking balls, he didn’t allow a single extra base hit in a batter’s park and he went deeper in the game before handing things off to the bullpen.

But is he a No. 3? Not yet he's not, and I don't expect that to change any time this season.

Pelfrey has shown enough through his first two starts to remain with the big club and fill out the back of the rotation through the regular season. I don’t think, however, that he’ll be ready to start Game 3 of the NLDS/NLCS/World Series.

That could change depending on how quickly his secondary pitches develop. In fairness to Pelfrey, the fact that he appears ready to be a starting pitcher for a division-leading team is remarkable when you consider that he signed his first pro contract in early January. That he’s taken such lengthy strides in so short a period of time suggests that he’s a quick learner, and also that his raw talent is as high as we all hoped.

The guy’s a little rough around the edges though, and no matter how excited we all are about his future, we need to be more practical when we consider the season at hand. Not surprisingly, he’s got further strides to take before you can slide him into the top half of the rotation.

And that fact alone will loom large for the Mets in the 12 days leading up to the trading deadline. None of us want to pay a steep price for a Livan Hernandez or a Freddy Garcia, but right now, I don't see how the front office can count on anything other than the following to be their playoff rotation if the season ended tomorrow:

1. Martinez
2. Glavine
3. Trachsel/El Duque

(Side note: I’ve been thinking this over a little bit – I would want Pedro pitching the first game of a series played at Shea, whether that means pitching Game 1 or Game 3. I say that based on gut instinct alone. Can you imagine how crazy the place would go with Pedro on the mound in a playoff game?

I just checked his stats – 2.51 ERA at home vs. 4.25 on the road (this latter stat skewed somewhat by his ugly outing against Boston). Maybe it makes sense for him to pitch at home for other reasons, too.)

If we’re comfortable like that, so be it. But from what he’s shown us these first two starts, I don’t think management should approach the trading deadline counting on Pelfrey to emerge as a better in-house option to be the third starter come October than Trachsel or El Duque.

I’m not saying it can’t happen. I’m just saying we shouldn’t count on it.

But it sure looks like we can count on him to shore up the back of the rotation. Take heart, Mets fans, six months into his professional career, that’s pretty damn good.

- A.F.O.M.G.