The Pelf Man Cometh

aHey everyone, A Friend of Mr. Glass' here. It's been some time since my last post, a week to be exact. What's happened with me in the time between? Well, I went to Martha's Vineyard and basically had 6 days away from the hustle and bustle. No newspapers (save the Sunday NYT). No internet. No television. Just a sweet house, nice weather, a beach, an iStation, and an ungodly amount of "Hips Don't Lie". All in all, it was pretty sweet.

Nothing could have prepared me for my first glimpse at a newspaper/the internt Wednesday evening though.

In less than a week, North Korea had popped off some missiles, Ken Lay had 'dropped dead' in the words of the Post, Alay Soler had been sent to the minors, Pedro Feliciano had talked shit about Willie, Pedro Martinez looked as if he was headed to the disabled list, Jose Lima had returned to the Mets, and somehow, in spite of a shitty week (of this I had been made aware), the Mets still owned an 11.5-game lead on the Phillies in the N.L. East.

So I was dealing with a lot of shit, but what struck me more than anything was how quickly some things can change. As Wednesday turned into Thursday and Thursday into Friday, I was reminded of that yet again.

The Mets have now won 3 straight, and we currently own a 12.5-game lead on our closest divisional rivals, the largest margin we've owned all year. For all the doom and gloom of a week ago (and believe me, anyone who saw me at Blondies last Wednesday can attest that I was as low as anyone as I watched the Mets get their asses handed to them in Boston), things are looking pretty alright right now.

We've got Lima going tonight. Normally those five words are enough to inspire fear in the hearts of even the most optimistic Mets fan, especially on a night when he's up against Dontrelle Willis.

But obviously the story today isn't about Lima Time, and the truth is I doubt many Mets fans really care that he's going tonight.

For one thing, there's a 3-game winning streak to be happy about. Even if it came against the worst the National League has to offer, it's important to beat the teams you're supposed to, and it's equally important to prevent skids from snowballing into landslides. The Mets did both this week against Pittsburgh.

Better yet, tomorrow promises the Major League debut of the man who could potentially be the ace of this Mets staff for many years, Mike Pelfrey.

As always happens with me when a highly-regarded minor leaguer debuts for the Mets, my feelings are a jumble of fearful pragmatism and unbridled optimism.

The part that's pragmatic tells me that his debut is just one start. How he fares tomorrow won't determine his legacy. If he gets beat up, hey, it was just one start. If he gets beat up again, hey, he just needs more seasoning in the minor leagues. If he impresses, great, but we'll need to see him go a few more times before we get a handle on what kind of commodity we've got here.

But then there's the other part, the part that dares to dream that at last there's a pitching phenom who could make good on all the promise of Generation K, or maybe (possibly, hopefully) Scott Kazmir (RIP). We've been waiting a long time for our farm system to produce a legit pitching prospect, could this be the time?

Until we see the man perform, it's impossible to say. But that's not to say we've got nothing to go on here, and luckily, Pelfrey's numbers in Double A are quite impressive. 12 games. 2.71 ERA. 66.1 innings pitched. 2 home runs allowed. 77 strikeouts. There's a lot to like there.

About the only underwhelming stat with this kid is his WHIP, which, after allowing 60 hits and 26 walks, is 1.30, but that stat doesn't particularly concern me. Young pitchers are given to wildness generally, and Pelfrey's strikeout rate is high enough that he can probably afford to walk a batter or two here or there.

Word from the scouts I've read is that his hard stuff is major league ready, but his breaking stuff isn't quite up to snuff. The success Pelfrey has with his junk could determine his major league success. A good heater will get you far, but that can't be all you bring to the table.

All that said, I'm still as excited as everyone else about what'll be on display tomorrow afternoon, and I'm excited about the climate into which he's being thrust.

As much as the Mets need a solid No. 3 (apologies to Steve Trachsel, he of the second best won-loss record on the roster), Pelfrey isn't in a position where he has to come in here and play savior.

If the Mets go .500 the rest of the way (39-38), they finish with 90 wins. In order for the Phillies to finish with 90 wins, they've gotta go 52-26 the rest of the way. Impossible? No. Not bloody likely? You bet.

So the Mets don't need Pelfrey to carry this team on his shoulders, and that's a good thing.

But what if he looks like he belongs tomorrow? What if he comes up and slots himself into the No. 3/4/5 spot in the rotation? What if every Pelfrey start becomes an event at Shea?

What if... the two magic words that wrap themselves around the major league debut of all prospects. As for me, well, pragmatism can wait. Excitement will be in the air tomorrow at Shea (no matter how much Lima Time stinks up the joint tonight), and for now that's all I need to know.

- A.F.O.M.G.