A New Hope

What’s up guys, A Friend of Mr. Glass’ here. You know, spoken or unspoken, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over this Mets team in the minds of many a Mets fan. It all has to do with the team’s starting pitching. Pedro’s toe. Glavine’s inconsistency. Trachsel’s mediocrity. Heilman’s two pitches three-to-four times a game.

And then there’s Victor Zambrano. The clouds that surround the other four members of the rotation are temporary. Over the course of the season, the questions about Pedro, Benedict, Trachsel, and Heilman must needs be answered, but at least with them there is the hope of a pleasant outcome.

As for Zambrano, his days are forever grey, and it seems incredibly unlikely that that will ever change. It’s not that he doesn’t have potential. If he could somehow get a little control over his pitches, well, he probably wouldn’t be the ace of the staff but he could be an entirely serviceable middle of the rotation starter.

The trouble with Zambrano isn’t who he is, however, it’s who he isn’t. He isn’t Scott Kazmir, Kid K, the mostly highly regarded prospect in nearly a decade of Mets baseball who was lost in The Purge of 2004.

Unlike Zambrano, Kazmir, a fireballing lefty who blows batters away like so many lines of cocaine*, had the potential to be the ace of the staff, the third pillar of the Mets’ youth movement along with David Wright and Jose Reyes, and the greatest homegrown Mets pitcher since a young Doc Gooden.

It’s not his fault that the Mets were willing to part with Kazmir to get him, but Zambrano wears that mantle every time he toes the rubber. Every sub-par outing, every trace of that patented Zambrano grimace, hell, every walk he issues reminds Mets fans of the potential that was given away.

I’ve spent nights tossing and turning in my bed at the thought of a rotation that reads:

1. Pedro
2. Glavine
3. Kazmir
4. Trachsel
5. Heilman

Rather than:

1. Pedro
2. Glavine
3. Trachsel
4. Heilman
5. Zambrano

Imagine how exciting the former would be just because of one substitution.

Or don’t.

Kazmir’s gone, and at some point we have to get over it.

I had always thought the moment I would get over the Kazmir trade would come when Zambrano finally left the organization.

I began to rethink that timetable this past weekend, however, when I read David Lennon’s article in Newsday about Mike Pelfrey (link available here: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets254641253feb25,0,1591396.story?coll=ny-mets-print).

At last Mets fans have a pitching prospect to get excited about again. At last we have a prospect with No. 1 potential. At last, there is a new hope for Mets’ fans such as myself.

(Note: As some of you will no doubt not need to be told, the title of this piece is a Star Wars reference. When I originally conceived of this piece, my thought had been to retell the Kazmir trade through the guise of Star Wars Episode III – Revenge of the Sith.

Featuring Jim Duquette as Anakin Skywalker and Jeff Wilpon as Supreme Chancellor/Emperor Palpatine, the story was to culminate with Jim Duquette on his knees staring up at Jeff Wilpon and saying in slow, anguished speech “I’ll do whatever you (pause) ask”, to which Wilpon, flush with power, his eyes a yellow-red tinge, responds “Gooooood…” the words creepily reverberating around the walls of his chamber, organ music playing in the background.

The idea was scratched, however, when I considered how much shit I would get from old Sip, Star Wars hater that he is.)

So why am I so excited about Pelfrey? Lord knows it’s not because I’ve ever seen him pitch, but the internets are a funny thing, capable of providing information on just about anything if you look hard enough.

Having done a decent amount of research on the matter, what’s got me excited about Pelfrey is his 4-pitch repertoire, consisting of two- and four-seem fastballs, a circle change, and a slider/curve (a slurve). The more weapons the better.

I’m excited about his track record. In three seasons at Wichita State, Pelfrey compiled the following statistics (statistics read 2003-2005, Pelfrey’s freshman – sophomore – and junior years of college).

Won-Loss: 10-2 – 11-2 –12-3 (Overall: 33-7).
Innings pitched: 104.2 – 115.1 – 139.2.
ERA: 2.49 – 2.18 – 1.93.
WHIP: 0.91 – 0.95 – 0.90.
Ks-per-9 innings: 8.43 – 9.75 – 9.21.
Home runs allowed: 9 – 2 – 4.

As the numbers attest, Pelfrey dominated college ball. It’s not the same as dominating major leaguers, but it’s probably equivalent to dominating A level talent at the least, and possibly AA. When you consider that many top prospects make the jump to the big club after excelling at AA (Wright did this for example, and I believe Reyes did the same, although Mr. Glass may have had a cup of coffee with the Triple A club**), you get a sense that this kid isn’t far off.

I’m excited about his size. The one legitimate knock on Kazmir was always his size relative to the radar readings on his fastball. Kazmir is listed as 6’0”, but word is his actual height is somewhere in the 5’10”, 5’11” area. That doesn’t make him tiny by any means, but we can all appreciate that in a perfect world, the guy throwing 97 mph would have a larger body through which to diffuse the work.

According to online reports, Pelfrey’s fastball is consistently in the mid-90s, and tops out at 97. At an imposing 6’7”, Pelfrey has the kind of frame that can intimidate batters and, hopefully, stay in one piece year-in and year-out (that's been the case so far; Pelfrey is the proud owner of what perfectgame.org calls "as clean an injury record as you can possibly have").

I’m excited about his makeup. He dominated his first live batting practice session with the Wilpons, Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph and Rick Peterson all in attendance. He talks about the adjustments he needs to make and the continued need for improvement. His quotes sound like they came from the mouth of David Wright – that’s a good thing.

And I’m excited because I’m tired of thinking about Kazmir. I’m tired of thinking about what could have been and I’m ready to start thinking something positive about the future of our rotation.

With Mike Pelfrey waiting in the wings, there's reason to hope again, if nothing else.

- A.F.O.M.G.

*: Was there ever anything to this rumor, or was it a baseless part of the Al Leiter (RIP)/John Franco smear campaign?

**: Per JWill's comment, this should be revised. Reyes made the jump to the bigs from Double A, Wright had a brief stint at Triple A. Thanks for the correction.