Seo Long?

Apologies for the title, but I just couldn't resist. No matter how stupid or contrived or predictable these tabloid headlines have become, it seems they've become pretty deeply ingrained.

Before turning to the news of the day, let's take a moment to remember some of our favorite constanstly rehashed tabloid headlines, shall we?

Who could forget the back pages blaring "Leit's Out!" every time Big Al authored another gem?

How many times have we seen a "Wright On!" or "Wright Stuff" on our backpages after another late-game heroic from David Wright?

How about all the mornings when you woke up crushed to find "Johnny Be Bad!" in big white letters reminding of you of the John Franco meltdown the night before?

And remember all the times you saw a mighty "Sieg Heil!" in deference to another strong, pure, and triumphant outing from Aaron Heilman?

OK, the Heilman one hasn't happened yet, and while we wish for his continued success in 2006, we should also hope that the Post and the Daily News keep that one on the shelf for the time being.

But the rest of them we've seen a million times. If a recent report out of Newsday is to believed, however, we can all expect to cross the familiar "Seo Good" or the Thomas Shiah Special "Seo Bad" off our lists, replaced as it will be by the title of this post on the backpages (or if not the backpages, somewhere in our hometown tabloids) tomorrow morning.

That's because the Mets are set to send Seo to the Los Angelos Dodgers for relief pitcher Duaner Sanchez, if Newsday's Ken Davidoff is to be believed. It's worth mentioning that no other media outlet is yet reporting the trade, which Davidoff said was "all but finalized".

So it's not a done deal at the moment, but it makes enough sense to be plausible. Omar and Co. identified starting pitching as their principle article of strength this offseason when it came to the bargaining table. It is worth asking whether they shouldn't have identified Mike Cameron as their most valuable asset, particularly when it was clear that at least one of the two richest franchises in baseball (the Yankees and Red Sox) was going to be in need of a centerfielder, but what's done is done I suppose.

Anyway, the Seo-for-Sanchez swap would seem to complete the Mets' bullpen facelift and set the starting rotation at

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Tom Glavine
3. Kris Benson
4. Steve Trachsel
5. Victor Zambrano

with Heilman, Brian Bannister, or Alay Soler available as spot starters in case of injury.

Given Pedro's health issues, Benson's tendency to break down, Glavine's middle-age, Trachsel's back, and Zambrano's general shittiness, I'd say a quality 6th starter was less a luxury and more a necessity, so here's hoping that Bannister can make it happen at the major league level (and in fairness, he's certainly earned the opportunity to make his case), Alay Soler can turn his Winter League success into Major League viability, or that Heilman can use his two pitches effectively across 7 innings in the event of an emergency.

But for now let's assume the best case scenario: our starters stay healthy and ready to take the ball every fifth day. What about our bullpen, what's it looking like with Duaner on board?

The book on Sanchez is that he's got mid-90s heat, an above average change-up, a pretty good splitter, and a shitty curveball (courtesy of Matthew Cerrone over at MetsBlog). In 2005, the 26-year-old Sanchez turned it all into a 4-7 record with a 3.73 ERA and 8 saves in 12 oppportunities. He's also got the cool glasses-goggles combo that looks pretty intimidating.

Looking beyond the glory stats, here's some more information to keep in mind:

- Sanchez posted a 1.35 WHIP last season, struck out 7.9 batters per 9 innings, and limited righthanded batters to a .182 average, .318 slugging, and .589 OPS in 148 at-bats. So that's the good news. Against lefties, however, the numbers are pretty ugly. Lefties hit .310 against Sanchez with a .484 slugging percentage and an .856 OPS.

- He was a far more successful pitcher at home than on the road, but given that Dodger Stadium is every bit the pitcher's park that Shea is, that's probably not worth getting excited about.

- In September 2004, with the Dodgers in a heated pennant race, Sanchez compiled a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings.

- Looking at his month-by-month pitching breakdown, it seems that Sanchez can be somewhat streaky. To wit, he posted a sub-3 ERA in four months last year and an above-6 ERA in the other two (including a ghastly 7.02 in June). When he's bad, he's bad.

But on the whole he's pretty good. Is he optimal value for Seo? That's hard for me to say given that I'm not privy to all the players being dangled before the Mets' front office, but it's definitely a move that addresses a primary need. Seo's always been hard to read. He was good in 2003, bad in 2004, and great in 2005. It's possible that he turned the corner last year -- he wouldn't be the first guy to take his game to the next level at age 28 -- but chances are his true value is more along the lines of 2003 than either of his two seasons at the extremes.

There's a strong urge in baseball fandom toward recency over primacy; that is, we remember how someone's done for us lately vs. how they've done on the whole in their careers. Every once in a while you'll see a middle-of-the-road pitcher who becomes dominant as if someone flipped a switch (Aaron Small did so this past season), but more often than not he won't sustain that level of greatneess.

Jae Seo was almost certainly as good as he was ever going to be in 2005. Trading him now is not the end of the world, and it could prove shrewd in short order. If he goes on to become the next Greg Maddux then, well, it won't be the first time the Mets gave up on a pitcher too early.

But back to the pullpen. We all knew the bullpen was shit last year. If we were trying to remain optimistic in the run-up to the start of the 2005 season, Manny Aybar and Braden Looper disabused us of that optimism in the season opener.

The Mets did well to keep one of their bullpen's bright spots from a year ago, Heilman, rather than trade him for the one-year rental that Danys Baez figured to be. Sanchez makes the league minimum in salary and will be under the Mets' control through 2009.

But let's come back from the future for the moment. In 2006 we're looking at a bullpen centering around Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, and Sanchez, to be complemented by Juan Padilla, Chad Bradford, Heath Bell, et al. That has the makings of a more than competent bullpen, even though it may be lacking in lefty specialists. One thing to watch out for, however, especially if Sanchez becomes the 8th inning guy, is that Wagner may be called on for more 4-out saves than he may be used to. If a lefty steps to the plate in a big spot, Willie shouldn't wait to go to his closer.

I don't love the idea of Tricky Vic being our fifth starter. It's also less than ideal that if one of our starters should go down that our best options for a replacement are Heilman, who we'll rely on out of the 'pen, Bannister, who's never thrown a pitch in the big leagues, and Soler, who's never thrown a pitch in the United States.

But if we look at the Mets' primary needs coming into the offseason, you'd have to say that Omar has addressed the great bulk of them successfully enough. Power hitter for first base? Check. Successor to Mike Piazza? Check. Bullpen help? Check. Second baseman? Riiight.

If the Sanchez deal goes through, there's one hole left to fill. The Daily News had word of the Mets being interested in Bret Boone. God help us if that's true.

That's all for now kids. Sippy Momo should be back tomorrow. What happens in Cabo, stays in Cabo... unless you run a blog with thinly veiled personal anonymity. I'm sure we've all got a lot to look forward to tomorrow -- until then.

- A.F.O.M.G.