Post: To Manny or Not To Manny?

What's up guys, A Friend of Mr. Glass's here. The following post comes from a similar one I left over at MetsGeek (http://www.metsgeek.com -- along with Yankees2000, MetsGeek is essential reading for all Mets fans) just now, but I wanted to share it with the distinguished readership of this blog as well. Below you can find a response to this post courtesy of Sippy Momo, who doubtlessly wrote his post while wearing sweat pants, mired in his unemployment.

I was inspired to write this piece after reading in the Boston Herald that the Manny-to-Mets talk has been revived (article available here: http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=111103). Current speculation is that the Red Sox would want a package centering on Mike Cameron and also containing two of the following three Mets prospects -- Aaron Heilman, Yusmeiro Petit, and Lastings Milledge.

You know, I can’t make up my mind on this deal. I really want the Mets to hang on to Milledge, and I liked what I saw out of Heilman last year, but if there is one thing that former “proven commodity” imports have proven to me it’s that when the Mets are looking for a monster bat, they really need a special, top-tier kind of guy.

Mike Piazza was a player of that caliber. Vlad was a player of that caliber. And the fact is that Manny is also a player of that caliber.

That’s not to say that other less highly regarded offensive players can’t succeed at Shea — just look at the numbers Cliff put up this season, or that Bernard Gilkey put up in 1996 (I think that was his monster year). No one’s going to confuse Cliff Floyd or Bernard Gilkey for Manny Ramirez, however, and that’s because each player at his best simply stands on different levels. Floyd and Gilkey top out at 30-plus home runs, 110 RBIs — the kinds of numbers that are taken as a given with Manny, from whom you expect 40/125.

Now with that said, the obvious question is whether Manny will continue to be a special player. Certainly, as much as we all love Piazza, we know he wasn’t the same player the last three years that he was through 2002.

What about Manny? Well, we know that his OPS has decreased each of the past three seasons, down from a ridiculous peak of 1.097 in 2002 to a none-the-less impressive .982 in 2005. Worth bearing in mind, however, is that this past year Manny equaled his career high in home runs (45) and collected more RBI (144) than he had in any season since 1999. Manny has played in at least 152 games each of the past three seasons. (You can check out his career stats here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2974).

The guy is 34 years old. That’s old but not ancient. Shea is no Fenway, but it’s not exactly like Manny’s stats were puffed up by pop ups that went yard — the guy kills the ball and we all know that. Add him to the lineup and, yes, your outfield defense suffers, but this is much the same deal we struck with Piazza for all those seasons behind the plate. The bat comes every night, all you can do is hope the glove doesn’t get exposed that frequently — with Piazza, it was always bothersome, but only really glaring when we played the Marlins. I imagine Manny would be similar in this regard.

Cameron is expendable, I’m sure we all agree. Petit is interesting but if he is only going to max out as a number 3 starter -- which many scouts seem to project -- then I wouldn’t mind sending him off in a deal for Manny. Milledge should be untouchable given that Floyd’s contract ends after this year.

(You'll note that this last statement was reeled off so tersely that it almost makes it seem unquestionable that he could be traded. I hope that's true. As Sippy Momo has suggested in many a previous post, however, hanging on to prospects when an established, potentially fading superstar is available has always been a difficult deal for New York teams to accept. The good news is that Omar Minaya is said to talk about Milledge as part of the "core" group of Mets that currently includes Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran).

That leaves Heilman. I don’t want to trade him, but as far as I'm concerned the deal should hinge on whether we think we can send him off and still produce a solid bullpen for next year. We suffered through a miserable bullpen in 2005, and you could make a pretty compelling argument that we would have made the playoffs if our relievers could have held up their end of the bargain (if nothing else, it would have meant more wins for Pedro and Tommy the Spy).

None of us want a repeat in 2006, and with good reason. There are two areas of the team that need to be upgraded in order for us to contend next year, our bullpen and our offense. In that order. Is it worth it to weaken the former further in order to bolster the latter? That's just a really tough call.

Some things to consider about our offense. One: Cliff Floyd will probably not be as good in 2006. Two: David Wright could actually be better. Three: Carlos Beltran must be better. Four: Reyes improved in virtually every offensive statistic as the season went on, and finished with 60 stolen bases after swiping only 11 through June 1. Five: No matter what happens, our production out of first base could not possibly be as bad as it was this year (RIP Doug Mientkiewicz -- I'll wear your t-shirt always).

It's an uncertain calculus, no question about it, but it seems to add up to a more productive offense any way you slice it. Add Manny and it could almost be lethal. Subract Heilman from the 'pen, however, and who are we left with? A bunch of guys who put up good numbers in the minor leagues but struggled in the Show (See: Heath Bell, Royce Ring, Tim Hamulack). Our best returning option is 40-year-old Roberto Hernandez (OMG!! 41 in 3 days!! Happy B-Day from Yankees2000, Rob-Her!!). Juan Padilla did well but I'm not ready to hand him the keys to the seventh or eighth inning just yet. Can we sign Wagner? B.J. Ryan? If we do, this deal becomes a lot more palatable.

If you’d have told me seven months ago that Aaron Heilman could potentially be a deal-breaker for Manny Ramirez I probably would have had a nice long laugh. My thoughts on the Manny deal are complicated, but the truth is, that’s kind of how I see it at this point. I invite any readers to respond on the comments board.

One reader has already responded, none other than Sippy Momo. See his post below.

Vote or Die,

A.F.O.M.G.