The Tipping Point

The vultures are circling around Willie Randolph.

It started with the crazies on the Fan. It continued with Tim Marchman in the New York Sun last week. It intensified at Bar/Grill in Brooklyn Heights with one of Nails' patented rants. And it exploded on to the message boards of Y2K yesterday.

The people are calling for his head. Truth is it's tough to blame them.

* * * * *

I don't think the Mets' uninspiring first 32 games are Willie's fault. I think it's the fault of guys like Carlos "Team to Beat" Beltran hitting .218, or Reyes hitting .254, or Castillo .242, or Wright .262 (I won't even mention the ghost of Carlos Delgado).

And I think it's the fault of Aaron Heilman having a rough go of it in the early going, and Oliver Perez, and Jorge Sosa.

Bottom line, the players aren't getting it done. But I feel an old adage coming on, don't you? You can't fire the players so you fire the...

Rick Down died for the 2007 Mets' sins. The team was languishing, underachieving in the dog days of summer. The Mets made a move to jump start the team, jettisoning Down in favor of Howard Johnson and Rickey Henderson.

It was, we prayed, 2007's answer to the Yankee Stadium massacre of 2000, when the 27-28 Mets fired three coaches, won the night's ballgame, and won 67 of their remaining 107 games. In 2000 it worked.

Last year, not so much.

* * * * *

Because of the way last season ended, this year is quite unlike any other, ultimately, in Mets history (and I say that as somebody who despises hyperbolic sports writing). The Mets aren't looking for a jump start, they're looking for something like a rebirth.

One thing everyone -- you, me, Omar, Willie -- agrees on, is that the Mets are better than they've played. The problem is it's been that way far too long.

For other talented teams, a 17-15 start wouldn't be the end of the world. It'd be a matter of working out the kinks, or finding the right lineup or bullpen configuration. Hell, the Yankees have played sub-.500 ball for 40 games the last 4 seasons it seems, and then all of a sudden something clicks and they realize they're the Yankees.

The problem for us is that we can't hang our hat on the team waking up and realizing they're the Mets, because waking up and realizing you're a Met means memories of Heilman serving one up to Yadier Molina, or Franco giving up a grand slam to Brian Jordan, or Benitez blowing Game 1, or Rogers throwing Ball 4, or the team losing 5 straight when one win would've meant the playoffs.

There is no inherent magic for the Mets to unearth. This Mets team, like every Mets team, has to make its own luck.

For almost 162 games now, the Mets haven't made any luck at all. They've looked lackluster. They've looked joyless, directionless, they've looked... mediocre.

* * * * *

I've said for a long time they're one winning streak from turning boos in to cheers, and I still believe that.

So what then?

To those calling for Willie's head... I hear you, but I'm not there yet. I'm giving him until June 1, roughly the one year mark of when things started to go south, to turn things around.

On June 1 we'll have something like 50 games in the books; that was time enough to blow it in 2007, and it'd be time enough to nail it in 2008.

The thing that I keep coming back to is the question of who I blame it on, and right now, I'm not satisfied that it's the manager's fault. I still think it's on the players.

There's comes a time when you can't fire the players so you fire -- no, not Rick Down -- you fire the manager. If the Mets play sloppy, uninspired ball for 2 months of this season, on top of 4 months last season, that'll be enough.

The reasons why a manager fails to get the most out of his players goes beyond what you or me can ever know. As much as New York fans think they know everything, on this one we know nothing. We're not in the clubhouse; we're not on the planes or buses; we're not out there near the batting cage.

But that doesn't mean we don't know players falling short of their abilities when we see it. Or more importantly, it doesn't mean we don't know when an entire team is falling short.

Willie's reached the tipping point. He's bending now. I say give him to June 1 to break.

- A.F.O.M.G.

Y2K World Tour

Everyone knows this site is huge in Japan, but what the rest of Asia? Yep, everything you've heard is true -- we're big-time in Red China too. There are four massive sports and entertainment stars in Beijing right now, the ones that headline billboards and dominate the evening newscasts: Yao Ming, Jackie Chan, their top Olympic sprinter, and none other than Sippy Momo. Hey, a billion godless capitalists can't be wrong.

As such, we humbly present the schedule for the China leg of the 2008 Y2K World Tour, sponsored by the tears of Tibetan children. Making live appearances at each location will be Cheddar Ben, Cheddar Sam, and Cheddar Sam's good pal Flopsy, with additional appearances to be announced closer to curtain time. We'll be signing autographs, kissing babies, distributing subversive literature ... you know, a little light comedy.

All shows begin when we're good and drunk:

March 7 -- Hard Rock Cafe, Beijing
March 9 -- Great Wall, the sunny side, near the blood spots
March 12 -- Starbucks, Shijiazhuang
March 14 -- Number One Electronics Shop and Most Excellent Food Emporium, Qingdao
March 16 -- Communist Party Headquarters, Jinan
March 17 -- Japanese Embassy, Nanking
March 20 -- Niketown, Shanghai

Surprise guests will no doubt include the local authorities.

No, seriously, two weeks in a country without baseball is going to provide quite the change of pace. I'll probably be able to pick up the scores if I really want, at least in the bigger cities, but there won't be any of the day-in, day-out rhythm you get from baseball season here. Cheddar Sam reports that their media and attention is totally focused on the upcoming Olympics, so I'll expect to be treated to plenty of construction updates and stories about fencers.

It's not that baseball is absent from the largest nation on the planet. They've got their own league, which is something. They've got Billy Ripken going over there to run youth clinics, which gives them something in common with the citizens of suburban Maryland.

But there's also no evidence they've picked up the same bad habits as, say, their Taiwanese counterparts. And while they unquestionably lack the same baseball tradition as their hated Japanese neighbors, they've agreed to partner with NPB teams to develop their own clubs, which is pretty sensible.

[Sidebar: I was in line in the airport yesterday morning behind a Japanese guy wearing a bomb-ass Chiba Lotte Marines jacket. He didn't speak any English, however, so I was unable to convey how much I approved of the jacket. "I like your jacket" got me precisely nothing, and didn't really get much of a response after I said, "The Marines, Bobby Valentine's team. I'm a fan." Finally he shook his head at me and said, "Chiba Lotte Marines, Japanese team," to which I replied, "'Hai,' Chiba Lotte," and smiled and nodded. He kept shaking his head and frowning at me, though, and said again, "Japanese team," clearly thinking I didn't know what I was talking about. I kept smiling. It was a really nice jacket.

China is going to be a disaster. Anyways.]

While I'm gone, I'd like to see the Metsies go something like 10-4, banking some wins against the overrated Dodgers and the soft Cincy-Washington combination. The upcoming weekend series at Yankee Stadium ... well, anything could happen there, and there's no reason to think ill of the team's chances. For all we know, the Bombers will be throwing out Kei Igawa and Darrell Rasner against us. There's nothing wrong with a baseball team that Kei Igawa can't cure.

By the time I get back, I'd like Pedro to have thrown off a mound and maybe, if we're lucky, to have tossed a simulated game. I'd like Moises Alou to still be on the active roster. I'd like to see Ramon Castro waddling around the dugout, and Nelson Figueroa with a couple more major-league wins in his back pocket, and the Phillies on a 15-game losing skid.

But I will settle for just getting out of the place alive. Some over .500 ball would be gravy.

'I Told You So'

"I told you so."

You think Hank Steinbrenner isn't stewing in his cellulite wishing the the Yankees had pulled the trigger on that Santana deal for a package of Ian Kennedy and Phillip Hughes?

Everything about this developing saga is incredible.

First off, it is obviously way too early to pass judgement on the deal, or lack thereof. But this is New York and when the Yankees are playing .500 ball, there always needs to be an explanation. All Steinbrenners are entitled to explanations after one month of the season!

But was Hank right to want to make the Santana deal? I backed him at the time and I will back him now.

Still, there is a reason that Johan Santana didn't go to the game's two biggest teams when he easily could and should have. Hopefully we don't see the answer to that in 2011.

But what if Phil Hughes is a bust and Ian Kennedy never grows into his 87-mph/5th starter potential? (Remind me again why this guy was a top prospect?)

The fact is, the Yankees didn't make what was a tailor-made deal for them.

And the reason they didn't make it is the funny part: There is no one to blame for this deal but the New York media. And you might be surprised why I think this.

It's not because the media didn't think the Yankees should do this deal. Most, in fact did. The media loves the big splash, the backpage, etc.

No, the reason the Yankees do this deal, like with everything else in New York City and its media, the Yankees overhype their prospects.

Remember when Robinson Cano was the next Rod Carew?

This is all a product of an overblown media.

Nothing has annoyed me more this year than any NFL draft analysis that comes from anyone not named Mel Kiper or Todd McSchay.

How many people actually watched enough Ohio State football over the last two years to draw the conclusion that Vernon Gholston "takes off plays?"

Yet there were hundreds of articles in the New York papers in which credited sports writers talked about Gholston's deficiencies without following it up with, "scouts say" or "according to people that actually know what they are talking about."

None of these people know what they're talking about. They heard this info from a few people that do and made it their own. And I got news for you. Most of us did the same.

The exact same thing happens in baseball.

Phil Hughes may have been an excellent pitching prospect. But when you hear or read about Phil Hughes every single day from multiple journalists, all of a sudden his hype soars. Before last season, no one knew anything about Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy. No one probably ever saw them pitch a game before that. And even if you did see them pitch a game, the odds are that you don't have the baseball eye that allows you to pass judgment on a players "projectability."

The Yankees essentially fell victim to their own hype.

I challenge you to rank the following outfield prospects.

Steve McKay
Colby Rasmus
Austin Jackson
A.C. Morris

Take your time.

Think a little bit.

There's a pretty good chance you have heard of one of these prospects.

Austin Jackson is a Yankee. Because he is in the Yankee farm system you have undoubtedly heard his name in trade talk and other speculation.

You probably haven't heard of Colby Rasmus unless you're a real baseball geek. Well this guy is a top ten prospect in baseball, the future of the St. Louis Cardinals, a much better prospect, according to people who know what they're talking about.

As for the other two prospects.

I just combined Dylan McKay and Steve Sanders to make one and AC Slater and Zach Morris to make the other.

Unfortunately, neither exists.

But if I hadn't told you that and instead told you that they were fast rising prospect for the Mets' class A affiliate, you would have probably believed me. We believe what we read, even if we don't really know the source.

97% of Jets fans hadn't heard of Vernon Gholston before the draft. Yet by draft day, every single one of them wanted the speed rusher from Ohio State.

The same goes for Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes.

We read so much convincing us that these guys were going to be the greatest pitchers ever that we convinced ourselves it was inevitable.

As a result, many Yankee fans thought it was OK not to move the pitching tandem for the game's best arm.

Could they still become great? Absolutely.

But if they don't, then the Yankees passed up on Johan Santana. And for a team where dollars and bloated contracts don't matter, they may never be able to forgive themselves.

And from there, the insecure Hank Steinbrenner will forever get to say "I told you so," and the Yankees will continue to fall apart from the top.

Vaya,
Sip

(Pics courtesy of cnn.net, mlb.com)

Team of Rivals

Hotlanta

So, is John Smoltz the manager of the Braves? Does he draw up the lineup cards behind Bobby Cox's back? Is he the one behind those sharp new blue alternate unis the Bravos have been sporting? I ask only because reports surfaced Thursday that Smoltz is apparently going to return from his DL stint as a reliever, not a pitcher, and contrary to the wishes of his manager. Check out the story if you didn't see it; it's rather unusual.

The best part is that John-John broke the story by texting a reporter from the Atlanta newspaper. The 21st century highly approves, Smoltzy! Not to mention the Dirty South hip-hop community. Next time we need a strikeout, we know who to 2-way.

Smoltz says his shoulder hurts too much for him to go as a starter, and that he can go as a reliever only. This hasn't shown up in the numbers yet, what with his 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as a rotation member, but the guy's 40 years old, and knows his body -- if he says he can't do it, I suppose you have to believe him. The skipper might not be on board yet -- ("In order to win big, John needs to be in the rotation," Cox said.) -- but that's only because Smoltz hasn't had a chance to Gchat with him yet. Once he explains with a pix msg, we should be good. You've got to preserve the health of your best players.

Wait, I think that's Hank Steinbrenner in the far corner calling Smoltz an idiot. Yep, that's him. Just ignore it. From the Mets' perspective, though, anything that dents the Atlanta rotation is all gravy.

Two new Braves you might not know enough about:

• Jair Jurrjens, 22-year-old SP; came over from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria trade; 86th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball Prospectus before the season; throws a mid-90s fastball, a good curve and an okay change with decent command, though it has improved markedly this season; has always been thought of as a low-ceiling starter, but has looked excellent through his first six-pack of starts in the bigs (3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 28K in 38.1 IP); Keith Hernandez will mispronounce his name somewhere in the vicinity of 50 different ways before all is said and done; likely the Braves' best starter from here on out
  
• Brent Lillibridge, 25-year-old SS; they'll likely get rid of Yuni Escobar before this fella, so this is their starter of the future; horrendously elfin, makes Dustin Pedroia look like Morgan Freeman; profiles similarly to Pedroia as a very solid college hitter who dropped in the draft (to Round 4) due to his size and projectibility concerns, but will hit for more power than you'd think; real nice defensively; not the type of baseballer who wants to run into Nails in a back alley when our boy has had a few Miller Lites

Port of Miami

I don't understand HBO. Its economics, I mean. The budget has to be fairly fixed, right? X amount of subscribers paying $Y per month, with those numbers fairly steady, minus your overhead and the contracts with the movie studios that get you the majority of your content. Does everything else then go into the general entertainment budget? I guess what I'm asking is, does the head of HBO's entertainment division then just have a zillion-dollar budget that it can spend on whatever series it wants? If so, how sweet is that job?

At the same time, that can lead to weird decisions, like making a TV movie about the Florida recount in the 2000 presidential election. "Recount," directed by comedy hack Jay Roach and starring way more famous people than you'd think, premiers on May 25, and I can't for the life of me figure out why. I'll watch it; I follow politics closely, and I think it could be funny or interesting.

Here's the thing, though -- there can't be nearly enough people like me to justify, in any meaningful sense, the cost of making this movie. No way. I'm sure there's a lot of chatting in offices, and standing in rooms, and that doesn't make for the most expensive shoot in history, but I don't care what it was -- this is a screaming little vanity project guaranteed to get awful ratings. Even if you included the spillover effects from the media buzz, this thing is a revenue sinkhole. I sure hope these big-name actors and a generally expensive director worked for cheap. Bonus strangeness -- this movie was written by a part-time "Gilmore Girls" actor. Look it up.

Wait, the Marlins aren't in first place anymore? Shocking.

Dukes

We here at Y2K have jonesed ourself into a tizzy this week over a winning team sitting a whopping half-game out of first place. Awesome work. Not being a psychic, a mystic, a paranormal detective or possessing a neural net processor (a learning computer), Cheddar Ben is unable to determine whether or not the players are, in fact, the moral vampires of legend; until SNY comes up with a camera angle that allows us to look into the Mets' souls, we're just going to have to assume that they're not powered by demons or concentrated bitterness.

The booing is retarded, and should stop immediately. If you're a fan, booing isn't your first, second or third move; it's a last resort. It's a move you employ when things are bad, and they don't seem like they could get any worse. Now, maybe I haven't been sufficiently spoiled by a string of three solid seasons, but as far as I can tell, things aren't bad, and have the potential to get a lot better, should the players start playing up to their potential.

Some of the Mets' mistakes are mental, and even sloppy-seeming and those are frustrating. But a fan (i.e., someone who wants to see the team win) might ask him or herself, "Will my reaction hurt or help the team in some way?" There's no one answer to this question -- you might believe that players tune out everything going on in the stands, or that they're motivated by the energy of the crowd night in and night out, or any permutation of the two.

But even if you believed that fans' booing has the ability to shake players out of a rut, you'd still want to be judicious about using it as a tool, simply because booing is unquestionably an interaction that produces diminishing returns over time. Seriously. The first boo to escape a fan's lips is always the loudest, and heard the best; the first cavalcade of boos is jarring, and might actually cause a player or coach to pause in thought; constancy of boos might set a tone; after a certain point, everyone's tuned the shit out. It don't take long to go through these steps.

Which is why booing a winning team in the month of April, a winning team running Raul Casanova and Damion Easley and Endy Chavez on the regular, is fucking retarded, and something a real fan simply would not be doing. Which leads us back to Sip's point that many of the people populating the fans at Shea aren't real fans; they're worse than Yankee fans.

I hate to agree, but what else can you say?

Broad Street

Yeah, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell are hitting like Gehrig and Ruth. But. Ryan Howard is still ensconced in his Robby Cano-like early-season coma, Rollins isn't playing, and as bad as I think he is, I also don't think Pedro Feliz is going to be hitting .200 all year, or Shane Victorino .230 for that matter. This team will continue to score runs, and lots of them.

The bullpen, on the other hand, is a completely different kettle of cheese steaks. From top to bottom, the Philly relievers are playing way over their heads, and once they start to act their age and not their shoe size, their team is going to start losing a lot of games. Lots of them. (Setting aside, for a moment, the fact that none of their starting pitchers have missed a turn in the rotation yet. Nice.)

The following Philly relievers have yet to give up a home run -- Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero, Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon, Rudy Seanez. Zero HR allowed in 65 innings on the hill. Lidge and Romero (Romero!) haven't given up an earned run yet. And they're all walking guys, too -- none of the guys I mentioned has a BB/9 below 4.00.

It's smoke and mirrors in Philly at the moment, and that's not a formula for success going forward. (Note: the previous comment does not apply to stage magicians or laser light show operators.)

Beltway

I hear Nick Johnson took a called third strike the other night. What an asshole. His batting average is down to .217. An obvious choker. Yeah, his OBP still might be at .400, which is kind of the point of the entire enterprise, and he's leading the team in RBI, but according to this arbitrary standard of performance I've just determined in my head, he's got warts all over the place. I mean, who takes a called third strike in April? This obvious lack of fire is just killing the team.

Opening Night? Sure, I remember that! After missing the entire year with a broken leg, Johnson came out in his first game back and dumped a ball into the corner for an RBI double. They tried to hold him at first, but the guy steamed around the base and slid into second like a freight train, as if he hadn't just missed 18 months with a Herman Maier-type of injury. Then, in the very next at-bat, ol' Nick gets knocked in by Austin Kearns -- and he gleefully slid in to home as well, just to show he could do it. The crowd went bananas, and the clubhouse was loving it, even Dmitri Young, the guy whose job Johnson took.

But whatever. Sure, he might have loved baseball or played his heart out at some point in the past. Maybe even at most points. But at this precise instant, I've determined he no longer enjoys the game enough to win. I'm a real sensitive dude, and I can suss out subtle gradations in tone and body language and professional intent like that. No problem. It's a talent, and I've got it.

So suck on that, Johnson. I will ride your ass into the ground until you start doing exactly what I want you to do at all times. If I see even a hint of anything suspicious, it won't matter whether we're winning or not -- I've got to stay vigilant, and vigilance entails that I act like a dick to people I ostensibly want to see succeed. It's called being a fan -- and it's what I DO.

It's Not Their Fault

So, yesterday, Sip takes the Mets fan base to task for being concerned about the current state of the team.

According to this website's founder, Mets fans have become "irrational dickheads" because they "boo irrationally."

Is booing out of hand at Shea right now? Sure. When a fan base gets deeply concerned, it manifests itself in ways that are unfortunate. If that means booing a player for taking a 2-0 strike then that is obviously uncalled for. But it is not irrational because Mets fans have plenty of reasons to be deeply concerned right now.

I know I am.

If we're having a discussion about irrational fans, perhaps it would be useful to begin with Einstein's definition of insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

For a long time now, I have had disagreements with Sip and others about my tendency to observe a phenomenon that happens over and over again and then draw conclusions by this behavior. Sticking your head in the ground because you don't want to examine a team's warts is not rational behavior.

Back when Lastings Milledge had trade value, I was a big supporter of trading him because I didn't think he had the drive to achieve his full potential.

I came to this conclusion because it occurred to me that somebody who wanted to be the best that he could be might not a) show up late to his fifth game in the majors, b) refuse to take fly-balls in the Fenway Park outfield after botching an important fly ball, which if he had done so might have resulted in him not misplaying a flyball in the very next game, or c) ostracize his teammates by failing to "know his place, rook."

Apparently, my analysis was silly. I was taking isolated anecdotes and pretending they were data. It was all the media's fault. Etc.

Well, lo and behold, last week Manny Acta benches Milledge for showing up late, again. Would Nats fans have been justified in booing Milledge during the next game? I certainly don't think that would be dickish.

So, I guess, the question is whether there is enough of a pattern here for intelligent and passionate Mets fans to say, "holy shit, the 2008 Mets have problems."

The argument against is that we're only 26 games into the season. I think this is observing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The reality is this year's team has the same core as last year's team: Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Delgado, Castillo, Maine, Perez, Wagner, Heilman, Sosa, Feliciano, and Schoeneweis.

How would you describe the 2007 Mets? They played the game joylessly. The fire that made them so dominant, and such a pleasure to watch in 2006, was gone. They played as if October was their due, as if there was nothing to be proven across 162 games. And it was only when the end came that they appeared humbled. As a result, for many Mets fans, the end was devastating but, somehow, acceptable. Me, I washed my hands of them. They don't want it? Fine, neither do I.

I didn't write that last paragraph. With some minor edits, it is what A.F.O.M.G. wrote.

He then said he never wants to feel that way again. Well, it's certainly how I feel about the 2008 Mets 26 games in. Here we are, a new baseball season but with the same core and playing the same way.

Does that mean they won't make the playoffs? No. Baseball's a game of inches and an inch here or there is the difference between the teams that we'll remember for the rest of our lives. As a buddy of mine recently pointed out, if the 1999 Mets lose one of their final four games then none of us ever remember them.

15% of the way through the 2008 season, we are watching the same cast of characters exhibiting the same lack of fire which made us wash our hands of them at the end of last season. Is that cause for concern? Yes. Am I shocked that fans are booing the Mets? No. Am I embarrassed to be a Mets fan right now? No.

Tomorrow night we play the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is the most important game of the season because it is the only game that we will be playing that night.

- Nails

P.S. Unless Sip would like to provide some analysis or evidence as to why he thinks most Mets fans would rather their team lose and we be proven correct than win and be proven incorrect, it is nothing more than an offensive slander.